BuffaloBob Posted July 19, 2013 Posted July 19, 2013 Actually, those days are not gone. What is gone is the massive upfront bonus, followed by small annual salaries in the first couple of years, with a huge jump in year four of a deal. New contracts replaced the big upfront bonus with smaller guaranteed bonuses in the first three years of the contract, such that in the first three years the cap hit is roughly equal to the cash payout. The fourth year bump in salary is still there for the obvious reason to renegotiate the deal at that time. Bills are benefiting from the tag now because it's $1 million lower than the cap hit, and probably $2-$3 mil lower than the actual cash outlay they would pay under a long term contract. So by saving $2 million this year, they guaranteed a bigger contract mess next year. Congratulations. Aaron Williams better step up. What do you think a back-loaded contract is? It is exactly what you described in the bolded text and yes, the era of those contracts IS over. And spreading the bonus out over multiple years is not new either. All it does is allow the amortization of the consecutive chunks of bonuses to start later in the agreement, albeit over less years. Bottom line is, teams rarely if ever do deals anymore that have the cap hit super low in the beginning of the deal and escalate to much, much higher values at the back-end. The cap hit tends to be evenly distributed, perhaps slightly in favor of the earlier years but not enough to create a problem at the other end. How exactly will it be a bigger contract mess next year? The fact they will go through this process again? Look, if Byrd wants a long-term deal from the Bills, they can sign one next year and it doesn't change ANYTHING other than the fact the new deal starts a season later in his career. The only way it gets worse is if he has some unbelievable year and the Bills will either have to pony up the really big bucks next year, or they merely tag him again and get aggressive about trading him. The Bills hold the cards here. If Byrd is in such demand that he will get huge bucks from someone, and the Bills decide it won't be from them, the Bills will be compensated for losing him with draft picks. Otherwise, they can pony up the cash and it ain't gonna change anything.
GG Posted July 19, 2013 Posted July 19, 2013 What do you think a back-loaded contract is? It is exactly what you described in the bolded text and yes, the era of those contracts IS over. And spreading the bonus out over multiple years is not new either. All it does is allow the amortization of the consecutive chunks of bonuses to start later in the agreement, albeit over less years. Bottom line is, teams rarely if ever do deals anymore that have the cap hit super low in the beginning of the deal and escalate to much, much higher values at the back-end. The cap hit tends to be evenly distributed, perhaps slightly in favor of the earlier years but not enough to create a problem at the other end. How exactly will it be a bigger contract mess next year? The fact they will go through this process again? Look, if Byrd wants a long-term deal from the Bills, they can sign one next year and it doesn't change ANYTHING other than the fact the new deal starts a season later in his career. The only way it gets worse is if he has some unbelievable year and the Bills will either have to pony up the really big bucks next year, or they merely tag him again and get aggressive about trading him. The Bills hold the cards here. If Byrd is in such demand that he will get huge bucks from someone, and the Bills decide it won't be from them, the Bills will be compensated for losing him with draft picks. Otherwise, they can pony up the cash and it ain't gonna change anything. Yes, a backloaded contract is the one where you have huge salary jumps at the back end of the contract. The kind that I said didn't go away. Take a look at Mario's contract. What are the chances he sees year 4 with Bills without a renegotiation? All contracts are still structured to force a renegotiation after three years because NFL contracts aren't fully guaranteed. And as for leverage, Bills have advantage as far as holding the cards in negotiating rights. But that's it. Byrd holds the cards for the improvement of the football team. Who is winning with Byrd watching TV on his couch in August? If he comes back and has a decent year, the situation now repeats, but Bills' options are reduced because they'll have to decide the FP tag on Byrd or Wood. That's what I mean about reducing your options. And if Byrd leaves and Bills get more picks, then you're back to square one. Great, you add more picks but lose a top caliber player. Did I mention lather rinse repeat. Are the Bills building a football team or moving up on the Forbes list of teams with the highest operating income?
RuntheDamnBall Posted July 19, 2013 Posted July 19, 2013 And as for leverage, Bills have advantage as far as holding the cards in negotiating rights. But that's it. Byrd holds the cards for the improvement of the football team. Who is winning with Byrd watching TV on his couch in August? If he comes back and has a decent year, the situation now repeats, but Bills' options are reduced because they'll have to decide the FP tag on Byrd or Wood. That's what I mean about reducing your options. And if Byrd leaves and Bills get more picks, then you're back to square one. Great, you add more picks but lose a top caliber player. Well-stated.
Thurmal34 Posted July 19, 2013 Posted July 19, 2013 I don't even care anymore. If he shows up, great. If not, i'm not going to wring my hands about what could have been. Whatever Jairus.
NoSaint Posted July 19, 2013 Posted July 19, 2013 Well-stated. Well, minus the idea they'd tag wood. Centers don't get tagged. They aren't paying wood top 5 left tackle money.
Coach Tuesday Posted July 19, 2013 Posted July 19, 2013 Well, minus the idea they'd tag wood. Centers don't get tagged. They aren't paying wood top 5 left tackle money. http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=6147197
Nanker Posted July 19, 2013 Posted July 19, 2013 Maybe this is why Overdorf can only negotiate one contract at a time. And who does Overdorf report to? His contract negotiations, given the cap, can greatly affect what the personnel guys want to do in free agency and of course who to re-sign. I'd love to know who sets parameters for a contract offer or the process involved. Something tells me Brandon immerses himself in that, which potentially cuts or hinders the personnel guys. The more things change... Bills Vet, this is not a direct response to your post above, its really in response to this post of yours in another (now locked) thread. I was not speaking to you as though you were one who wishes Ralph would pass (for the past dozen or so years). I don't know you well enough from the board to ever recall anything of the like that you may have said, or whatever other feelings you might have for the owner. What I was responding to was the fact that there is a large component of incredibly negative fans and posters in this forum who have ill will and spite for the organization and the man and do indeed wish for his demise. I am not one of them. Glad to know you are not either. I'm sorry that you felt I insinuated that you were in that camp.
mrags Posted July 19, 2013 Posted July 19, 2013 bryd's #1 priority is long term GUARANTEED money. that opportunity is now gone for this season. therefore, in order to reduce his risk of injury, he will forego about half of his $6.9 Tag and show up in week 10. at the risk of replying to this message and bypassing all comments between yours and the comment that I am now including (because I'm sure I won't go back and read all the argumentative posts about being a shill). I agree with this completely. I have held my ground from day one of this debacle that A Byrd deal would not get done. I have held my ground that it would get VERY UGLY and it hasn't disappointed. I would agree this your post complete however, I'm still sticking to my ground that Byrd will not be in camp or pre-season at all. At about 2 weeks or so before the season starts, the Bills will trade his rights away for much lower than market value for a player of Byrds abilities. I've held strong that we would receive a 2nd and a 4th but at this point without the ability to negotiate a long term deal, I'm going to say we receive less. So maybe a 3rd and other compensation, 4th, or 5th or 6th depending on how he performs throughout the season. I'd like to add that, even though I believe Burd is worthy of being paid as the top safety in the league, I'm glad the Bills aren't the team to give him that. He's coming into his prime and I firmly believe he will be Ed Reed esque in the next few seasons. At that point, he will be a steal for the money he's making. I thank JW for his willingness do be here and his willingness to inform or argue his points with us fans but I completely disagree on this topic. I was one of the people that thought Byrds deal should have done over a year ago because of his expected value. I also thought the same thing about Levitre. The same way I feel about Wood and Spiller. But the facts are, both sides have to want to negotiate. Parker knew what kind of payday his client was in for if he tested FA. In a way, he dug his heels in to "thank" the Bills for allowing his client to seek that payday. IMO, Levitre was massively overpaid, and if a guard (that's never been to a pro bowl) can get that kind of money, what did anyone really think was going to happen with Byrd??? Which is why I've stated that ive seem the writings on the wall this whole time. On my final note, this thread is getting absolutely ridiculous and I called it a long time ago that TBD would rip itself to pieces over this. We've shown that this is nothing short of a train wreck at best. Enjoy your weekend fellas, tip back a few beers and just enjoy the calm before the training camp storm where QB controversies will make people want to rip their hair out.
NoSaint Posted July 19, 2013 Posted July 19, 2013 http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=6147197 And that's 1 of what... 1? 2? Centers to get the tag in recent history. I still disagree that "but then they can't tag wood" is a good argument. We're talking a position that tops out around 8m a year getting nearly 11m under the tag
papazoid Posted July 19, 2013 Posted July 19, 2013 at the risk of replying to this message and bypassing all comments between yours and the comment that I am now including (because I'm sure I won't go back and read all the argumentative posts about being a shill). I agree with this completely. I have held my ground from day one of this debacle that A Byrd deal would not get done. I have held my ground that it would get VERY UGLY and it hasn't disappointed. I would agree this your post complete however, I'm still sticking to my ground that Byrd will not be in camp or pre-season at all. At about 2 weeks or so before the season starts, the Bills will trade his rights away for much lower than market value for a player of Byrds abilities. I've held strong that we would receive a 2nd and a 4th but at this point without the ability to negotiate a long term deal, I'm going to say we receive less. So maybe a 3rd and other compensation, 4th, or 5th or 6th depending on how he performs throughout the season. I'd like to add that, even though I believe Burd is worthy of being paid as the top safety in the league, I'm glad the Bills aren't the team to give him that. He's coming into his prime and I firmly believe he will be Ed Reed esque in the next few seasons. At that point, he will be a steal for the money he's making. I thank JW for his willingness do be here and his willingness to inform or argue his points with us fans but I completely disagree on this topic. I was one of the people that thought Byrds deal should have done over a year ago because of his expected value. I also thought the same thing about Levitre. The same way I feel about Wood and Spiller. But the facts are, both sides have to want to negotiate. Parker knew what kind of payday his client was in for if he tested FA. In a way, he dug his heels in to "thank" the Bills for allowing his client to seek that payday. IMO, Levitre was massively overpaid, and if a guard (that's never been to a pro bowl) can get that kind of money, what did anyone really think was going to happen with Byrd??? Which is why I've stated that ive seem the writings on the wall this whole time. On my final note, this thread is getting absolutely ridiculous and I called it a long time ago that TBD would rip itself to pieces over this. We've shown that this is nothing short of a train wreck at best. Enjoy your weekend fellas, tip back a few beers and just enjoy the calm before the training camp storm where QB controversies will make people want to rip their hair out. I agree with everything you say, except the trading Byrd "this" season part. I say the bills play this out and are intent on tagging him again next season (2014) for the 120% increase to about $8.3 mil which is still less than the reported #1 safety money Byrd wants of $9.1 mil. I don't care what Russ Brandon says, he's not going to roll over this time, with this agent, like he did last time with Jason Peters. I say they may even take this as far as year #3 (2015) before they entertain trades. they could franchise tag him a 3rd time (144%) to $11.9 million just for spite. heck, that $11.9 figure might be the going rate for all pro safeties anyways. the 3 year total for tagging him would be about $27 million or $9 mil/year average. having said all that, eventually, barring injury, Byrd will get his big pay day. but the bills can make him wait quite awhile.
Nanker Posted July 19, 2013 Posted July 19, 2013 I pretty much agree with mrags and you papazoid. Byrd is as much as done as a Bill. Though I think he'll get paid, it could take quite a while for him to start getting checks again.
Rubes Posted July 19, 2013 Posted July 19, 2013 I agree with everything you say, except the trading Byrd "this" season part. I say the bills play this out and are intent on tagging him again next season (2014) for the 120% increase to about $8.3 mil which is still less than the reported #1 safety money Byrd wants of $9.1 mil. I don't care what Russ Brandon says, he's not going to roll over this time, with this agent, like he did last time with Jason Peters. I say they may even take this as far as year #3 (2015) before they entertain trades. they could franchise tag him a 3rd time (144%) to $11.9 million just for spite. heck, that $11.9 figure might be the going rate for all pro safeties anyways. the 3 year total for tagging him would be about $27 million or $9 mil/year average. having said all that, eventually, barring injury, Byrd will get his big pay day. but the bills can make him wait quite awhile. But the Bills gain nothing in this scenario, except perhaps the shallow satisfaction of not allowing Byrd to get his payday. Sure, they retain his rights, but he would never be ready for the regular season, and almost certainly wouldn't play up to his potential because of it. So they still get Byrd, but they get him at less than his full playing potential. That hardly helps the team. Byrd thinks he should be the highest paid FS in the league. The Bills disagree. Byrd's not willing to back down on that, because eventually someone will pay him. The Bills either want Byrd at less than the highest-paid FS salary, or they want some compensation for losing him to another team. The end result of this is that neither group gets what they want, at least not for a while.
papazoid Posted July 19, 2013 Posted July 19, 2013 or maybe, just maybe, next year Byrd realizes that so called Top 4-5 money is fair, that he is accepting too much risk, signs a long term deal with the bills and this ends happily.
K-9 Posted July 19, 2013 Posted July 19, 2013 I agree with everything you say, except the trading Byrd "this" season part. I say the bills play this out and are intent on tagging him again next season (2014) for the 120% increase to about $8.3 mil which is still less than the reported #1 safety money Byrd wants of $9.1 mil. I don't care what Russ Brandon says, he's not going to roll over this time, with this agent, like he did last time with Jason Peters. I say they may even take this as far as year #3 (2015) before they entertain trades. they could franchise tag him a 3rd time (144%) to $11.9 million just for spite. heck, that $11.9 figure might be the going rate for all pro safeties anyways. the 3 year total for tagging him would be about $27 million or $9 mil/year average. having said all that, eventually, barring injury, Byrd will get his big pay day. but the bills can make him wait quite awhile. I don't think the Bills rolled over during the Peters saga. Not at all. Peters proved to be a selfish, "me first" headache with a bad attitude and needed to go. I don't care how good he was, he burned all his bridges and didn't want to be in Buffalo. The fact we ended up with Wood as part of that deal makes it even sweeter. GO BILLS!!!
Rubes Posted July 19, 2013 Posted July 19, 2013 or maybe, just maybe, next year Byrd realizes that so called Top 4-5 money is fair, that he is accepting too much risk, signs a long term deal with the bills and this ends happily. Possibly, but I doubt that with Parker as his agent.
H2o Posted July 19, 2013 Posted July 19, 2013 Possibly, but I doubt that with Parker as his agent. As soon as I found out Parker was his agent I kind of figured how this would go. I like Byrd, I think he is a good player, but at the same time I agree with Whaley's stance on him. We don't need the highest paid FS in the league to be successful. He is going to follow the model he learned in Pittsburgh and keep this team moving in the right direction.
Luxy312 Posted July 19, 2013 Posted July 19, 2013 I agree with everything you say, except the trading Byrd "this" season part. I say the bills play this out and are intent on tagging him again next season (2014) for the 120% increase to about $8.3 mil which is still less than the reported #1 safety money Byrd wants of $9.1 mil. I don't care what Russ Brandon says, he's not going to roll over this time, with this agent, like he did last time with Jason Peters. I say they may even take this as far as year #3 (2015) before they entertain trades. they could franchise tag him a 3rd time (144%) to $11.9 million just for spite. heck, that $11.9 figure might be the going rate for all pro safeties anyways. the 3 year total for tagging him would be about $27 million or $9 mil/year average. having said all that, eventually, barring injury, Byrd will get his big pay day. but the bills can make him wait quite awhile. I have to agree with most of this and would only add that if Byrd doesn't sign the 1-year tender for $8.3 million, that he doesn't get paid a dime. I'm not familiar with this aspect of the CBA, but would have to believe there's some protections for teams that might suggest that he WOULDN'T go up to $11.9 million if he sat out this entire year. Most guys like these eventually show up and either sign their 1 year tender or come to terms on a long term deal. At the end of the day, his agent is giving him crappy advice. He's not the best safety in the NFL and not worthy of the top pay.
All_Pro_Bills Posted July 19, 2013 Posted July 19, 2013 I have to agree with most of this and would only add that if Byrd doesn't sign the 1-year tender for $8.3 million, that he doesn't get paid a dime. I'm not familiar with this aspect of the CBA, but would have to believe there's some protections for teams that might suggest that he WOULDN'T go up to $11.9 million if he sat out this entire year. Most guys like these eventually show up and either sign their 1 year tender or come to terms on a long term deal. At the end of the day, his agent is giving him crappy advice. He's not the best safety in the NFL and not worthy of the top pay. We need to qualify the term highest paid safety in the league. More like, highest paid safety in the league until somebody signs a bigger contract next season. Like you I am not an expert at the ins-and-outs of the CBA but at this point I don't see how not signing the franchise tag tender is of any benefit to Byrd in the short or long term. If he holds out and then reports right before week 10 to get credit for the year of service he does this at the cost of more than half the contract value. How does it change his situation if he signed it today and reported to camp on time vs. waiting for week 10? Given that only a one year deal can be signed there simply is no leverage for either side. And if I'm th coach and the guy reports after 9 weeks of football, given the Bills low expectations, a new regime, and new schemes, I figure the guy doesn't see the field for the season since its a new defense and other guys are in doing the work. The thinking is he's really not going to help too much at this point and I will not allow him to go out there just to showcase his talents for the next 6 or 7 games to set himself up for next years free agency period. His back end is going to be stapled to the bench. My conclusion at this point is that Bryd for reasons of his own simply doesn't want to play for the Bills any longer and has enlisted an agent that has a reputation for playing hardball to make sure he gets out and receives top compensation at the position from another team, some of which he may already have in mind. This probably ends like the situation with Mike Wallace at Pittsburgh last seaons when he signed a big deal with Miami this spring.
mitchmurraydowntown Posted July 19, 2013 Author Posted July 19, 2013 Byrd will play this season & get traded the next for value, there's not a lot to know.
Luxy312 Posted July 19, 2013 Posted July 19, 2013 We need to qualify the term highest paid safety in the league. More like, highest paid safety in the league until somebody signs a bigger contract next season. Like you I am not an expert at the ins-and-outs of the CBA but at this point I don't see how not signing the franchise tag tender is of any benefit to Byrd in the short or long term. If he holds out and then reports right before week 10 to get credit for the year of service he does this at the cost of more than half the contract value. How does it change his situation if he signed it today and reported to camp on time vs. waiting for week 10? Given that only a one year deal can be signed there simply is no leverage for either side. And if I'm th coach and the guy reports after 9 weeks of football, given the Bills low expectations, a new regime, and new schemes, I figure the guy doesn't see the field for the season since its a new defense and other guys are in doing the work. The thinking is he's really not going to help too much at this point and I will not allow him to go out there just to showcase his talents for the next 6 or 7 games to set himself up for next years free agency period. His back end is going to be stapled to the bench. My conclusion at this point is that Bryd for reasons of his own simply doesn't want to play for the Bills any longer and has enlisted an agent that has a reputation for playing hardball to make sure he gets out and receives top compensation at the position from another team, some of which he may already have in mind. This probably ends like the situation with Mike Wallace at Pittsburgh last seaons when he signed a big deal with Miami this spring. Not signing the franchise tender means he doesn't get paid anything. You're 100% correct that there's not benefit to him, other then sticking to his position that he wants to be paid like the top guy. Signing and showing up today, he collects any workout bonuses and would get his full $8.4 million contract for the season. He would obviously be ready to play this season and actually be playing for something (i.e. big payday next year). If he waits until week 10 and signs, he gets paid roughly $3.2 million for the remainder of the season and like you indicated probably doesn't see the field. That absolutely crushes his value for 2014. This situation is a bit different from Wallace. Pittsburgh had a young talented receiver waiting in the wings and just refused to pay Wallace top dollar. To be fair, Wallace deserved the contract he received. How many guys come along that succeed at their game (speed in this case) without other teams adjusting. Steve Smith may have been the last guy like Wallace. On your last point, I've seen nothing suggesting that he wants out. He hasn't commented to that effect and neither has his agent. Technically, another team could sign him now, but would cost them 2 first round picks. Alternatively, they could do a sign and trade for different compensation. IMO, the Bills best move at this point is to wait, because they have all the leverage. As Warren Sapp said, I would like to see Byrd get out there and play to earn his contract next year. Agree to the tender with a condition that he cannot be tagged next year. That's what's best for both.
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