njsue Posted September 1, 2004 Posted September 1, 2004 Please dont ignore the warnings to evacuate. One of my many jobs was with the American Red Cross. However, the people I used to see alot where those who had lost there homes due to a disaster or fire. I always said to them. Materials things arent worth as much as a Human Life is. That a Human Life is priceless and very precious. Loss of life hurts so much more than a material thing. Why not preserve that precious Human Life. BE SAFE ALL DOWN IN THAT AREA. Mother Nature has more strength than you. GO BLESS YOU ALL.
njsue Posted September 1, 2004 Author Posted September 1, 2004 It would be nice to have a significant reason to dump Pukecillo.
Corp000085 Posted September 2, 2004 Posted September 2, 2004 IF we all want to die, we could put the pucillo and mike williams on wrightsville beach to block the storm surge. In all seriousness, good luck and god speed for those in the way of wherever this thing is actually going to hit. I'm just far enough away where my life isn't in danger if i don't hang out under a tree, but close enough to thank myself for having nice renters insurance coverage. We'll see what happens, but i expect every hotel in fayetteville to be booked with evacuees. Maybe there won't even be school next tuesday (i'm a teacher...)
TigerJ Posted September 2, 2004 Posted September 2, 2004 I think North Carolina is considered out of the target area for landfall, but, depending on what happens after landfall you could have a pretty bad rain event on top of what Gaston just left you.
stevestojan Posted September 2, 2004 Posted September 2, 2004 the thing is, i am in no way ignoring any evacuation notice, but right now it is just too early too tell what the safest path is. Hell, i could leave now and drive to Orlando, but Frances could hit there. I could go to New Orleans, but that could also get hit. Right now, i live in a 3/2 house about 2.9 miles from the ocean, on a small side street. I have friends who will welcome me and my dog to stay as long as i want in their apartment, and that is approximatly 17 miles from the oceans. However, with the eye being 30 miles across, it will suck either way. I am leaving work early tomorrow weather they like it or not, and getting everything necessary in case i have to get the hell out of here completly. So, please know i am not being dumb (or immature, or pigheaded) right now, I just do not know the best plan of attack right now. If tomorrow night they say it is still headed right for us, I will think about hopping on FLAs Turnpike and going north. That would give me more than 24 hours, even with bad traffic, i could get the Pennsylvania by then ...
Campy Posted September 2, 2004 Posted September 2, 2004 the thing is, i am in no way ignoring any evacuation notice, but right now it is just too early too tell what the safest path is. Hell, i could leave now and drive to Orlando, but Frances could hit there. I could go to New Orleans, but that could also get hit. Right now, i live in a 3/2 house about 2.9 miles from the ocean, on a small side street. I have friends who will welcome me and my dog to stay as long as i want in their apartment, and that is approximatly 17 miles from the oceans. However, with the eye being 30 miles across, it will suck either way. I am leaving work early tomorrow weather they like it or not, and getting everything necessary in case i have to get the hell out of here completly. So, please know i am not being dumb (or immature, or pigheaded) right now, I just do not know the best plan of attack right now. If tomorrow night they say it is still headed right for us, I will think about hopping on FLAs Turnpike and going north. That would give me more than 24 hours, even with bad traffic, i could get the Pennsylvania by then ... 15286[/snapback] The GFS and GFDL models are generally considered the most accurate, and if so, it bodes well for you, and bad for SC. Here are a few of the models, including the GFS & GFDL.
The Chief Corky Posted September 2, 2004 Posted September 2, 2004 Probably board up the house Friday, check the beer, chips and propane and fight back. Thanks for the kind words. We may need them come Sunday. But then again, it could do an about face and head out into the ocean like all the others that come into the Jacksonville Cove that protects us. My money is on the big turn to the east. Either way, Losman is out for a while so my season is 1/2 shot anyway. Look for the big moon at the hurricane...that's me with my last act of defiance. Chief Corky...BILLS fan in jagwad country
DC Tom Posted September 2, 2004 Posted September 2, 2004 The GFS and GFDL models are generally considered the most accurate, and if so, it bodes well for you, and bad for SC. Here are a few of the models, including the GFS & GFDL. 15294[/snapback] Now that's cool. And pretty well demonstrates the problem I have with the NHC forecasting procedure. They just average all the models. Though I fully understand that their predictions are literally life-and-death, so they're necessarily conservative about it, their methodology is still more a cop-out than a prediction.
Tux of Borg Posted September 2, 2004 Posted September 2, 2004 I'd give it 24 hours and see what the hurricane is doing then. I use to live in Myrtle Beach and I remember how fast a hurricane can change course. Just keep an eye on the news and if its coming for you.... run like hell.
Zac Posted September 2, 2004 Posted September 2, 2004 If that hits virginia even as a tropical storm it could be crazy. They dont need anymore rain.
Campy Posted September 2, 2004 Posted September 2, 2004 Now that's cool. And pretty well demonstrates the problem I have with the NHC forecasting procedure. They just average all the models. Though I fully understand that their predictions are literally life-and-death, so they're necessarily conservative about it, their methodology is still more a cop-out than a prediction. 15300[/snapback] I think it's Florida State that has a computer that averages the models, and the NHC makes their own assessment, and then ignores it in favor of the FSU "super model." Just who is the guy that decided that taking the most reliable models and dumbing them down by factoring in inaccurate models was a good idea?
tatonka12 Posted September 2, 2004 Posted September 2, 2004 Man I'm hopeing and praying(and Im not much on praying)but this storm is big and I'm praying it slides on by . I was here for andrew and got very lucky and ,dont want to do that again I just got done getting the back of the house shuttered up have a ton left to do I'm less than two miles from the ocean myself I know if it hits it will hit hard . hey frances :I starred in Brokeback Mountain: and go away
swede316 Posted September 2, 2004 Posted September 2, 2004 Good luck Tatonka...I'm in Pensacola...Just hope it moves north...But if it comes..I'll have a hurricane party...Some where besides here.
DC Tom Posted September 2, 2004 Posted September 2, 2004 I think it's Florida State that has a computer that averages the models, and the NHC makes their own assessment, and then ignores it in favor of the FSU "super model." Just who is the guy that decided that taking the most reliable models and dumbing them down by factoring in inaccurate models was a good idea? 15311[/snapback] That guy's probably some pencil-neck lawyer who thinks there's less liability in the FSU average than there is in the NHC meteorologists' opinions. I love their forecast discussions...the weather geeks almost invariably say some variation of "The computer models say this and that...but we're not sure they're right. But we'll go with them anyway." Bad friggin' science...
tatonka12 Posted September 2, 2004 Posted September 2, 2004 Good luck Tatonka...I'm in Pensacola...Just hope it moves north...But if it comes..I'll have a hurricane party...Some where besides here. 15321[/snapback] I dont blame you I wish I could just leave but were pretty much required to be here( at work that is the next day ) be safe and run like hell if its coming your way
njsue Posted September 2, 2004 Author Posted September 2, 2004 Just fly up to western ny. Safer in Bills Country.
envirojeff Posted September 2, 2004 Posted September 2, 2004 the thing is, i am in no way ignoring any evacuation notice, but right now it is just too early too tell what the safest path is. Hell, i could leave now and drive to Orlando, but Frances could hit there. I could go to New Orleans, but that could also get hit. Right now, i live in a 3/2 house about 2.9 miles from the ocean, on a small side street. I have friends who will welcome me and my dog to stay as long as i want in their apartment, and that is approximatly 17 miles from the oceans. However, with the eye being 30 miles across, it will suck either way. I am leaving work early tomorrow weather they like it or not, and getting everything necessary in case i have to get the hell out of here completly. So, please know i am not being dumb (or immature, or pigheaded) right now, I just do not know the best plan of attack right now. If tomorrow night they say it is still headed right for us, I will think about hopping on FLAs Turnpike and going north. That would give me more than 24 hours, even with bad traffic, i could get the Pennsylvania by then ... 15286[/snapback] Your exactly right Steve, unless you already have a ticket to Denver the smartest thing is to hunker down or go to a shelter. I can't tell you how many times I have heard that people left Tampa for Orlando only to get nailed. Jeff
flomoe Posted September 2, 2004 Posted September 2, 2004 Your exactly right Steve, unless you already have a ticket to Denver the smartest thing is to hunker down or go to a shelter. I can't tell you how many times I have heard that people left Tampa for Orlando only to get nailed. Jeff 15453[/snapback] SO true Jeff, everyone left St. Pete and Tampa and came to Orlando during Charley only to get hammered here. By the looks of this thing, the best thing to do is go inland, say somewhere near Omaha, lol. Honestly though stevestojan, heading to Orlando or somewhere in the middle of the state isn't a bad idea, we are going to get hit hard here but it won't be as bad as where you are. There are dozens of shelters, plenty of hotel rooms, though that might be dwindling and even my house. I have hurricane shutters and a fairly decent size house with enough room, you just need to bring plenty of beer. Stay safe!!
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