EJ's Florida Game Lucky for Bills?

[John Cocktosten]

Where has he failed with his first round picks?

 

I don't want to digress but he's been picking in the single digits in the first round. Kind of different when you're picking form the back or middle of the first. And even though I like Dareus, he's been a massive underachiever. Outside of the QBs taken in '11, who were EJ-esque head scratchers, Dareus is the biggest disappointment by far out of the top 10 and it's not even close. How bout taking a look at the rest of his drafts. The '11 is crashing and burning as we speak. It's a complete train wreck.

[Kelly the Dog]

I don't want to digress but he's been picking in the single digits in the first round. Kind of different when you're picking form the back or middle of the first. And even though I like Dareus, he's been a massive underachiever. Outside of the QBs taken in '11, who were EJ-esque head scratchers, Dareus is the biggest disappointment by far out of the top 10 and it's not even close. How bout taking a look at the rest of his drafts. The '11 is crashing and burning as we speak. It's a complete train wreck.

Where has he failed in first round picks? Pretty much everyone with any football sense anywhere says it takes three years to know with any certainty about a draft class. Everyone was quick to put the bust moniker on CJ, who has turned into a bona fide star. Dareus is going into his third year (and I think it is fair to give him a pass on a year where the team disintegrated and he was scared to leave his own house after his brother was killed, ending an unheard of string of tragedies in his life. Gilmore, to me, looks like an absolute stud in the making.

 

What people are taking you to task on is not your opinion, it's your absolute certainty that EJ is an abject failure.

[John Cocktosten]

Where has he failed in first round picks? Pretty much everyone with any football sense anywhere says it takes three years to know with any certainty about a draft class. Everyone was quick to put the bust moniker on CJ, who has turned into a bona fide star. Dareus is going into his third year (and I think it is fair to give him a pass on a year where the team disintegrated and he was scared to leave his own house after his brother was killed, ending an unheard of string of tragedies in his life. Gilmore, to me, looks like an absolute stud in the making.

 

What people are taking you to task on is not your opinion, it's your absolute certainty that EJ is an abject failure.

 

I agree and am hopeful about Dareus. From all accounts, Chan didn't make things any better too.

 

So are you making the point that GMs should be judged on first round picks or that Buddy has been so spot on with first rounders that EJ is a lock to be good?

 

It's a bit hypocritical to get mad at my opinions on EJ when there was a hundred threads during the past several drafts proclaiming other team's picks to be busts. I'm just adding a little balance to this board, among other things.

[Kelly the Dog]

I agree and am hopeful about Dareus. From all accounts, Chan didn't make things any better too.

 

So are you making the point that GMs should be judged on first round picks or that Buddy has been so spot on with first rounders that EJ is a lock to be good?

 

It's a bit hypocritical to get mad at my opinions on EJ when there was a hundred threads during the past several drafts proclaiming other team's picks to be busts. I'm just adding a little balance to this board, among other things.

That's fair. But it was jumping the gun for them, too, to label guys as busts. And there is a huge difference IMO between saying "this guy sure looks like a bust", and saying "this guy is a bust already and Nix is an incompetent moron for picking him."

 

I have no idea if EJ is going to be a bust. He was the guy I wanted but only because all of the guys were 50-50 shots and I felt that if he hit, it's a grandslam not a homerun because he has the most talent.

 

I was very encouraged that the Bills scouts thought he had trouble seeing the whole field, too, until they studied film with him, asked him what his responsibilities on the play was, he told them, and that was backed up by his position coach and head coach. So maybe he didn't have trouble reading the whole field.

 

All first round QBs, with the rare exceptions of the sure things like Andrew Luck, have a basically 50-50 chance of bust. You don't like the pick and you have your reasons for it, and you have seen a lot of evidence in your mind to back that up. That's fine, and fair. The problem is, you're presenting your case as a fait accompli and not as a warning that things may not work out well because of A, B, C and D.

[thebandit27]

Where are the insults and cheesey name calling? A little sensitive?

 

If you watched CFB, which it's pretty clear that you just read box scores, you'd know that Va Tech got slammed by the good offensive teams last year. It's easy to shutout Austin Peay or Bowling Green. But let's look drill down a bit. Clemson, Miami, UNC and Pitt rolled up at least 30. Why am I even defending this. Va Tech had their worst team in 15 years. This is a fact. That defense was terrible. They gave up 41 to DUKE for god sakes!

 

How is pointing out that ND '11 team was completely different than this years team (albeit very overrated) denigrating? You are just a touch too sensitive.

 

And pointing out wins over Wake Freeking Forest, Pitt and South Florida? Wow.....Just stop already. Btw, What happened to Maryland's steel curtain?

 

Oh, I'm sorry, you meant "stat-boy" as a compliment? Well then thank you.

 

And yes, I did watch college football, that's how I recognize that EJ played well against the best defenses he faced. I did, somehow, miss Florida on the rankings as they were 5th in the country. Yes, he struggled down the stretch in that game. I actually thought they were going to pull the upset when they were ahead by a TD after the 3rd quarter, but the long TD drive to open the 4th and EJ's ensuing interception were costly. As for you other comment, Virginia Tech may have had their worst team in years, but they allowed the 18th fewest points in FBS.

 

It's altogether unreasonable to fault EJ for playing well against the teams he played. Yes, it would be great if he single-handedly found a way to beat Florida, but to use that as the shining example of why he won't be successful is very, very short-sighted.

 

"best defenses" he played was Florida. Florida had more defensive players drafted in the first 3 rounds than the "great defenses" of Va Tech and Maryland. Are you kidding me right now? ACC's best defenses are average at best. Look at the OOC results.

 

RG3 put up 5 TDs against every team he played regardless of comp. Here's the link, go for it.

http://espn.go.com/c...11/baylor-bears

 

What RG3 didn't play with was a defense full of NFL players. Just facts that I'm throwing out there. It makes the game a bit tougher when your defense routinely is giving up 40-50 points like Baylor s did . No?

 

Thanks.

 

Ok, now I'm confused. You seem to be saying that Florida State's lack of a BCS Title run falls on the shoulders of EJ, but when it comes to RG3, you're willing to make it a team game? Well, I can make the same argument in EJ's favor. Ready?

 

What EJ didn't play with were (not was, since I see you're a fan of correcting others' grammar) 3 WRs that were 1st or 2nd round picks like RG3 had in Wright, Gordon, and Williams. Just facts I'm throwing out there. It makes the game a bit tougher when you don't play with a single other NFL quality position player like RG3 did. No?

 

Thanks.

 

PS, you obviously know that the Big 12 is a defensively bankrupt conference. In 2011, RG3 faced one, count 'em, one defense ranked in the top 45 in the country. Yes, he was a great college player, who also was surrounded by other great college players, but look no further than this year's Baylor Bears for the reason he put up 5 TDs per game: the D in the Big 12 is horrendous. In fact, without RG3, Baylor's offense actually improved in points/game, yards/game, 3rd down conversion rate, and rushing yards, all while staying virtually identical in passing yards and first downs/game. I can't believe someone trumpeting the argument that EJ faced inferior defenses would ignore that factoid.

 

This should actually serve to prove to you that strength of competition doesn't matter. EJ played well in college, a fact that can't be denied by anyone that watched him play. The stats support it...you're stretching to make your argument, and coming up with one game to support it.

 

I have a feeling it doesn't matter what anyone says, you're stuck in your thinking. That's fine, I'm happy to let the next 2-3 years play out and see. You seem happy to bury EJ now.

[C.Biscuit97]

EJ made a living off of terrible ACC defenses. He hit a brick wall when he had to play a top defense. That game was huge for FSU and he failed despite playing at home and having a ton of offensive talent. That's EJ though, he's good enough to fit in but he will never win a game by himself.

 

FYI, this poster also screamed & hollered that the Bills made the worst mistake ever passing over the great Jimmy Clausen.

 

I preferred one of the more polished Qbs in the 1st but man was I wrong about that. Marrone has worked with Brees & developed a one star recruit Nassib into a NFL qb. If he thinks he develop a 5 star recruit in Manuel into a franchise qb, I'll take his word for it. It's his job that's on the line.

[eball]

FYI, this poster also screamed & hollered that the Bills made the worst mistake ever passing over the great Jimmy Clausen.

 

Seriously? Is this true? Talk about credibility flying out the window.

[Kelly the Dog]

FYI, this poster also screamed & hollered that the Bills made the worst mistake ever passing over the great Jimmy Clausen.

 

I preferred one of the more polished Qbs in the 1st but man was I wrong about that. Marrone has worked with Brees & developed a one star recruit Nassib into a NFL qb. If he thinks he develop a 5 star recruit in Manuel into a franchise qb, I'll take his word for it. It's his job that's on the line.

Ultimately, the bold part is the whole story in my mind. Coaches and players at this level all have huge egos, regardless of how they present them to the media. They all believe they can coach players up, with the single caveat being that the player must want to be coached up, and is willing to listen and do what it takes. Marrone, in all likelihood, loved Nassib and genuinely believes he can be a top QB in this league, and a lot of that belief comes from Marrone's own ego and belief in himself as much as Nassib.

 

To me, Marrone simply thinks that if he had EJ Manuel at Syracuse for 3-4 years instead of Ryan Nassib, Marrone would have turned Manuel into the consensus #1 overall pick.

[Mango]

Or did we et burned by the Clemson game

[John Cocktosten]

That's fair. But it was jumping the gun for them, too, to label guys as busts. And there is a huge difference IMO between saying "this guy sure looks like a bust", and saying "this guy is a bust already and Nix is an incompetent moron for picking him."

 

I have no idea if EJ is going to be a bust. He was the guy I wanted but only because all of the guys were 50-50 shots and I felt that if he hit, it's a grandslam not a homerun because he has the most talent.

 

I was very encouraged that the Bills scouts thought he had trouble seeing the whole field, too, until they studied film with him, asked him what his responsibilities on the play was, he told them, and that was backed up by his position coach and head coach. So maybe he didn't have trouble reading the whole field.

 

All first round QBs, with the rare exceptions of the sure things like Andrew Luck, have a basically 50-50 chance of bust. You don't like the pick and you have your reasons for it, and you have seen a lot of evidence in your mind to back that up. That's fine, and fair. The problem is, you're presenting your case as a fait accompli and not as a warning that things may not work out well because of A, B, C and D.

 

I do believe EJ was limited by Jimbo but to what point? Jimbo wasn't sabotaging EJ was he? Maybe he was managing his weaknesses. Either way, JF isn't going to come out and say anything bad about EJ, his play calling said enough.

 

As far as my presentation of my opinion, does it really matter? If I said, "guys, please temper the EJ enthusiasm because I have my concerns." I would still get attacked with nonsensical stats about Va Tech's defense and how I just want to be right. I guess I'm just matching the complete jubilation over the pick but with informed opposition. Maybe we're all a little absurd but my opinions didn't come from You Tube or only prognosticators who liked him.

[JohnC]

Where has he failed in first round picks? Pretty much everyone with any football sense anywhere says it takes three years to know with any certainty about a draft class. Everyone was quick to put the bust moniker on CJ, who has turned into a bona fide star. Dareus is going into his third year (and I think it is fair to give him a pass on a year where the team disintegrated and he was scared to leave his own house after his brother was killed, ending an unheard of string of tragedies in his life. Gilmore, to me, looks like an absolute stud in the making.

 

What people are taking you to task on is not your opinion, it's your absolute certainty that EJ is an abject failure.

 

Not many people put CJ in the bust category The brunt of the criticism of the pick had to do with the position he played, not the ability of the player. I have been from the start a staunch supportor of the pick and the player. (NYC Bill will verify my zealotry on this issue.) Last year he was the best and most impactful player on the team. Dareus has been somewhat of a disappointment. But because of the multiple personal tragedies he had to deal with( as you noted) I'm going to give him a pass. I expect that he will be an anchor type lineman for us with a more hardened coaching approach. As with you I think Gilmore is a stud CB.

 

Regularly drafting in the top quarter of the draft isn't much of a challenge when making your first round pick. When judging a draft you have to look at the body of work. Nix's handiwork is not too impressive. His second and thrid round selections as a group have been poor. Where Nix has also performed at a very poor level is in lower round picks. I can't recall him hitting on one of them. Take a look at Mike Shanahan's drafts. His record for hitting the jackpot with lower round picks is astounding. His very effective RB, Morris, was a low round selection that turned into a mainstay on offense.

 

The GM for the Seahawks, Sneider, became a GM at the same time that Nix did. Compare his drafts and roster. Last year he had his team competing to get into the SB. When the Seahawks played the Bills in Toronto his team beat the Bills 50-17, His impressive rookie qb who Nix passed on for a track receiver might turn out to be an upper tier qb in this league for a very long time. You judge the comparison on performances by the respective GMs.

 

Mike Shanahan took over the football operation of the Redskins about the same time that Nix took over for the Bills. Shanahan had a bigger challenge because he had to contend with an ugly cap situation and a boatload of foolish contracts such as the Haynesworth contract. On top of that cap issue his team was subjected to a cap punishment of $36 M, split into $18M last year and $18M this year, for their contract transgressions associated with the lockout and labor conflict. His team last year was playing in the playoffs. Compare the job Shanahan has done over the past three years to what Nix has done in Buffalo.

 

I thought Nix's offseason this year was solid and his draft this year was encouraging. But that doesn't excuse him for his mediocre performance as a GM in his first three years. This team by now, even without a young qb on the roster, should have had a stronger fondation to build on. Instead of having the stage set up for success he unecessarily extended the time frame for the rebuild process to be completed or at least be more advanced.

[John Cocktosten]

FYI, this poster also screamed & hollered that the Bills made the worst mistake ever passing over the great Jimmy Clausen.

 

I preferred one of the more polished Qbs in the 1st but man was I wrong about that. Marrone has worked with Brees & developed a one star recruit Nassib into a NFL qb. If he thinks he develop a 5 star recruit in Manuel into a franchise qb, I'll take his word for it. It's his job that's on the line.

 

Good lord really? Do we want to go back to that same draft and look at who you fell in love with? You wanted Dan Lefevour in the second. At least Clausen is still on a team.

 

Actually why don't we go back over every one of your posts and count the millions of ways you were wrong. You've been saying 10 wins per season for the last 5 years...those who live in glass houses. Ballsy to be so ignorant.

[Kelly the Dog]

I do believe EJ was limited by Jimbo but to what point? Jimbo wasn't sabotaging EJ was he? Maybe he was managing his weaknesses. Either way, JF isn't going to come out and say anything bad about EJ, his play calling said enough.

 

As far as my presentation of my opinion, does it really matter? If I said, "guys, please temper the EJ enthusiasm because I have my concerns." I would still get attacked with nonsensical stats about Va Tech's defense and how I just want to be right. I guess I'm just matching the complete jubilation over the pick but with informed opposition. Maybe we're all a little absurd but my opinions didn't come from You Tube or only prognosticators who liked him.

1] Jimbo sabotaging EJ is not the point. I don't think he did. And Jimbo just saying nice things about him isn't at all the point either. The point is only that one of the major criticisms of Manuel is that he was only reading half the field, and therefore, the theory went, that he couldn't go through his progressions, which he would have to do in the pros. The Bills spend hours with him going over his film, and asking him specifically what his duties were, and it came out that the play was designed to only have him case half the field, and make a decision. When they went back and asked his coaches, they told the Bills the same thing. It's pretty hard to believe that Manuel would flat lie to them, and that both of his coaches would back that flat lie up.

 

2] People would still respond to your posts with their rosy projections of Manuel's ability and picking apart your statements with their own slanted facts and reasoning. That's what makes this board and message boards in general great. They wouldn't be jumping all over your case if you didn't present it as if it were fact and Manuel had no chance.

[John from Riverside]

Let's hope you're wrong...All we've had here is QBs that can't win a game by themselves in the last 13 years.....GO BILLS!

 

He is

[Kelly the Dog]

Not many people put CJ in the bust category The brunt of the criticism of the pick had to do with the position he played, not the ability of the player. I have been from the start a staunch supportor of the pick and the player. (NYC Bill will verify my zealotry on this issue.) Last year he was the best and most impactful player on the team. Dareus has been somewhat of a disappointment. But because of the multiple personal tragedies he had to deal with( as you noted) I'm going to give him a pass. I expect that he will be an anchor type lineman for us with a more hardened coaching approach. As with you I think Gilmore is a stud CB.

 

Regularly drafting in the top quarter of the draft isn't much of a challenge when making your first round pick. When judging a draft you have to look at the body of work. Nix's handiwork is not too impressive. His second and thrid round selections as a group have been poor. Where Nix has also performed at a very poor level is in lower round picks. I can't recall him hitting on one of them. Take a look at Mike Shanahan's drafts. His record for hitting the jackpot with lower round picks is astounding. His very effective RB, Morris, was a low round selection that turned into a mainstay on offense.

 

I agree with all that. But we are not talking about the whole draft, we're talking about the first round pick. EJ Manuel. And whether or not it was a good pick and should or could turn into a good pick.

 

I don't know where you have been but a HUGE portion of fans here labeled CJ a bust for the first two years, regardless of his position. I do agree that another huge portion agreed that he had talent but it was a stupid pick to begin with because he was a RB and because we had Lynch and FredEx.

 

BTW, your cut and paste skills are extraordinary.

[John Cocktosten]

Oh, I'm sorry, you meant "stat-boy" as a compliment? Well then thank you.

 

And yes, I did watch college football, that's how I recognize that EJ played well against the best defenses he faced. I did, somehow, miss Florida on the rankings as they were 5th in the country. Yes, he struggled down the stretch in that game. I actually thought they were going to pull the upset when they were ahead by a TD after the 3rd quarter, but the long TD drive to open the 4th and EJ's ensuing interception were costly. As for you other comment, Virginia Tech may have had their worst team in years, but they allowed the 18th fewest points in FBS.

 

It's altogether unreasonable to fault EJ for playing well against the teams he played. Yes, it would be great if he single-handedly found a way to beat Florida, but to use that as the shining example of why he won't be successful is very, very short-sighted.

 

 

 

Ok, now I'm confused. You seem to be saying that Florida State's lack of a BCS Title run falls on the shoulders of EJ, but when it comes to RG3, you're willing to make it a team game? Well, I can make the same argument in EJ's favor. Ready?

 

What EJ didn't play with were (not was, since I see you're a fan of correcting others' grammar) 3 WRs that were 1st or 2nd round picks like RG3 had in Wright, Gordon, and Williams. Just facts I'm throwing out there. It makes the game a bit tougher when you don't play with a single other NFL quality position player like RG3 did. No?

 

Thanks.

 

PS, you obviously know that the Big 12 is a defensively bankrupt conference. In 2011, RG3 faced one, count 'em, one defense ranked in the top 45 in the country. Yes, he was a great college player, who also was surrounded by other great college players, but look no further than this year's Baylor Bears for the reason he put up 5 TDs per game: the D in the Big 12 is horrendous. In fact, without RG3, Baylor's offense actually improved in points/game, yards/game, 3rd down conversion rate, and rushing yards, all while staying virtually identical in passing yards and first downs/game. I can't believe someone trumpeting the argument that EJ faced inferior defenses would ignore that factoid.

 

This should actually serve to prove to you that strength of competition doesn't matter. EJ played well in college, a fact that can't be denied by anyone that watched him play. The stats support it...you're stretching to make your argument, and coming up with one game to support it.

 

I have a feeling it doesn't matter what anyone says, you're stuck in your thinking. That's fine, I'm happy to let the next 2-3 years play out and see. You seem happy to bury EJ now.

 

Stat boy ...harsh...sorry bro.

 

RG3 tooks advantage of his talent by putting unreal numbers game after game. What did EJ do? Believe me Rashard Greene, Kelvin Bejamin and Kenny Shaw will all be drafted high as WRs for FSU not to mention the ridiculous stable of backs. RG3 was unreal. EJ was good. The talent of the overall offenses severely favors FSU and it's not even close including O LIne.

 

And I would agree with you that the Big12 defenses are bad but the ACC is worse. The ACC is 1-8 against the Big 12 the last 3 years. The comp isn't close regardless of defenses. But tell me again how Va Tech's vaunted defense was good when DUke hung 40+ points on them. Sorry again for the stat boy, i get harsh sometimes.

 

Seriously? Is this true? Talk about credibility flying out the window.

 

Do you really want to revisit the last 4 years on this board?

[JohnC]

I agree with all that. But we are not talking about the whole draft, we're talking about the first round pick. EJ Manuel. And whether or not it was a good pick and should or could turn into a good pick.

 

I don't know where you have been but a HUGE portion of fans here labeled CJ a bust for the first two years, regardless of his position. I do agree that another huge portion agreed that he had talent but it was a stupid pick to begin with because he was a RB and because we had Lynch and FredEx.

 

BTW, your cut and paste skills are extraordinary.

 

If I'm cutting up a post it is because I am responding to that particular segment. I was in general responding to the body of work issue associated with the draft. For me and I suspect most people Nix's first round picks were solid and reasonable. My main point is that in general his drafts were average at best. For a team trying to move up the ranks it doesn't get you to where you want to be.

[eball]

Do you really want to revisit the last 4 years on this board?

 

It's not my assertion we're debating. But if you did in fact criticize the Bills for not taking the pickle man, then it would at least lend some credence to the notion you're not flawless in your collegiate QB assessments and perhaps shouldn't take such a strong stand with regard to EJ.

[The Big Cat]

Do you really want to revisit the last 4 years on this board?

 

Interesting.

 

You pounded your chest about predicting the busts of Leinart (seven years ago), Sanchez (four years ago) and Tebow (three years ago).

 

But now the past is out of bounds?

[Kelly the Dog]

If I'm cutting up a post it is because I am responding to that particular segment. I was in general responding to the body of work issue associated with the draft. For me and I suspect most people Nix's first round picks were solid and reasonable. My main point is that in general his drafts were average at best. For a team trying to move up the ranks it doesn't get you to where you want to be.

I repeat. The post that you responded to was not in any way talking about the whole of Buddy Nix's drafts. It was only talking about first round picks and in particular, EJ Manuel.

 

And as I stated before, whether the post is talking about Buddy Nix, or purple Chinese pottery, you cut and past your tried-and-troll Buddy Nix is an incompetent fool diatribe we have seen 3,729 times before.