EJ's Projected 2013 Stats

[ajzepp]

(I didnt' see this posted anywhere else, but if it was, feel free to delete or merge)

 

 

So I've been finding it interesting going back and listening to some podcasts from before or during the draft, just to compare the "experts" opinions to what actually went down. Obviously I've paid particular attention to any mentions of our boy EJ. One of the shows I listened to last night was the Thundering Herd (Colin Cowherd) cast from Friday afternoon prior to day 2 of the draft. Colin had a guy named Paul Bessire on his show who has a background as a statistician and sports journalist. He had a lot of interesting things to say about the draft and how many teams make the mistake of placing less emphasis on production (during the college years) and more on how a player's physicality or combine-type stats fit their idea of what an NFL player should look like. He eventually got around to discussing the QB class for this year and his statistical projections of what each will do if they were to start "for an average NFL team against an average NFL schedule" in the 2013 season.

 

He has EJ ranked as the 48th player overall, and the 4th ranked QB in this class. He qualified that by saying that even though EJ was ranked 4th, he showed the greatest amount of variability in terms of the stats, which he interpreted to meaning he was a "boom or bust" type player and that his success would be largely dependent on the system he played in and how well it fit his strengths. According to this guy, if EJ started all 16 games in 2003, his projected stats would be as follows:

 

ATT: 496 COMP: 293 %60.4 YDS 3589 TDs: 18.5 INT: 17.3

 

It was a very interesting conversation and the amount of information on this guy's website is pretty impressive. You can view it at www.predictionmachine.com

 

Here is a link to the page with the QB projections from 2013, and below is the list of projections from the 2012 QBs if anyone wants to compare to what they actually did during the season.

 

http://www.predictionmachine.com/nfl-draft-2013-quarterback-rankings-projections

 

http://www.predictionmachine.com/nfl-draft-2012-projections#QB2011

[Fezmid]

I can guarantee that EJ won't have 18.5 touchdowns and 17.3 interceptions.

[Jamie Nails]

Hey will have 0 tds and 0 ints. Kolb will take every snap and we will win the Super Bowl. That is all.

[BRAWNDO]

(I didnt' see this posted anywhere else, but if it was, feel free to delete or merge)

 

 

So I've been finding it interesting going back and listening to some podcasts from before or during the draft, just to compare the "experts" opinions to what actually went down. Obviously I've paid particular attention to any mentions of our boy EJ. One of the shows I listened to last night was the Thundering Herd (Colin Cowherd) cast from Friday afternoon prior to day 2 of the draft. Colin had a guy named Paul Bessire on his show who has a background as a statistician and sports journalist. He had a lot of interesting things to say about the draft and how many teams make the mistake of placing less emphasis on production (during the college years) and more on how a player's physicality or combine-type stats fit their idea of what an NFL player should look like. He eventually got around to discussing the QB class for this year and his statistical projections of what each will do if they were to start "for an average NFL team against an average NFL schedule" in the 2013 season.

 

He has EJ ranked as the 48th player overall, and the 4th ranked QB in this class. He qualified that by saying that even though EJ was ranked 4th, he showed the greatest amount of variability in terms of the stats, which he interpreted to meaning he was a "boom or bust" type player and that his success would be largely dependent on the system he played in and how well it fit his strengths. According to this guy, if EJ started all 16 games in 2003, his projected stats would be as follows:

 

ATT: 496 COMP: 293 %60.4 YDS 3589 TDs: 18.5 INT: 17.3

 

It was a very interesting conversation and the amount of information on this guy's website is pretty impressive. You can view it at www.predictionmachine.com

 

Here is a link to the page with the QB projections from 2013, and below is the list of projections from the 2012 QBs if anyone wants to compare to what they actually did during the season.

 

http://www.predictio...ngs-projections

 

http://www.predictio...jections#QB2011

 

Good stuff thanks for sharing

[Kemp]

He missed TJ Grahams total catches for the season by 3. He missed Gilmore's total tackles by 3.6.

Edited May 5, 2013 by Kemp

[ajzepp]

I can guarantee that EJ won't have 18.5 touchdowns and 17.3 interceptions.

 

Yeah, that would be pretty tough to do...

 

Good stuff thanks for sharing

 

You bet...I need to go back and listen to it again, cause he made a very interesting point about pass rushers. He said that too many teams pick players they THINK will be successful pass rushers in the pros and often pass over the players who got to the QB most often in college. He had some data on it, too, but I was sorta tired when I was listening.

 

I also remember him saying that EJ was one of only two QBs that he would have drafted this year, and I'm PRETTY sure the 2nd one wasn't Geno, it was Landry Jones. I think his rationale was that EJ and Landry had the most potential upside depending on the team and system they were drafted into. Colin, who usually hacks all over the Bills, also sort of defended the pick, which was surprising.

 

We all need to send Prisco a letter after EJ lights it up...tell him to lube up that "F" grade, turn it sideways, and stick it up his candy ass. (/TheRock)

[San Jose Bills Fan]

He has EJ ranked as the 48th player overall, and the 4th ranked QB in this class. He qualified that by saying that even though EJ was ranked 4th, he showed the greatest amount of variability in terms of the stats, which he interpreted to meaning he was a "boom or bust" type player and that his success would be largely dependent on the system he played in and how well it fit his strengths.

 

http://www.predictio...ngs-projections

 

http://www.predictio...jections#QB2011

 

 

Thanks for posting that.

 

I would agree that a QB's success can be dependent on which team they land with but I think that EJ would be successful in any system.

 

He has great arm talent, intelligence, and athletic ability. He ran some read option but he also played in a modified pro-style offense and took many snaps directly from center.

 

On the other hand I think guys like Barkley, Nassib, and Glennon are much more system-dependent.

[ajzepp]

 

 

Thanks for posting that.

 

I would agree that a QB's success can be dependent on which team they land with but I think that EJ would be successful in any system.

 

He has great arm talent, intelligence, and athletic ability. He ran some read option but he also played in a modified pro-style offense and took many snaps directly from center.

 

On the other hand I think guys like Barkley, Nassib, and Glennon are much more system-dependent.

 

The more I learn about him, the more I agree with this...I cant wait to see how he develops!

[Bills4]

 

 

Thanks for posting that.

 

I would agree that a QB's success can be dependent on which team they land with but I think that EJ would be successful in any system.

 

He has great arm talent, intelligence, and athletic ability. He ran some read option but he also played in a modified pro-style offense and took many snaps directly from center.

 

On the other hand I think guys like Barkley, Nassib, and Glennon are much more system-dependent.

 

I agree.. Good post.

[thebandit27]

 

 

 

Thanks for posting that.

 

I would agree that a QB's success can be dependent on which team they land with but I think that EJ would be successful in any system.

 

He has great arm talent, intelligence, and athletic ability. He ran some read option but he also played in a modified pro-style offense and took many snaps directly from center.

 

On the other hand I think guys like Barkley, Nassib, and Glennon are much more system-dependent.

 

^ Hit the nail right between the eyes

[eball]

 

ATT: 496 COMP: 293 %60.4 YDS 3589 TDs: 18.5 INT: 17.3

 

 

I don't know about anyone else but I'd be ok with those stats out of a rookie QB. >7 yds/attempt, >60% completions...the INTs are high but that's solid production.

[CSBill]

Yeah, that would be pretty tough to do...

 

You bet...I need to go back and listen to it again, cause he made a very interesting point about pass rushers. He said that too many teams pick players they THINK will be successful pass rushers in the pros and often pass over the players who got to the QB most often in college.

 

(/TheRock)

 

Exhibit A => AARON MAYBIN!

[H2o]

Exhibit A => AARON MAYBIN!

 

Wish you drafted me instead of the self labeled "Mayhem", don't you?

[Hotpockets28]

Att.486 comp.299 %60.7 3294 yards tds 16 ints 9.......( 51 carries 220 yards 4 tds.....book it!!!! Lets go bills

[H2o]

I don't think EJ takes over right out of the gate. I see Kolb starting until maybe the Ravens game before he goes down with an injury of some kind. Manuel will then take the reigns the rest of the way.

 

12 Games Started - Att. 293 Comp. 177, 60%, 2800 yds, 19 TD's, 11 Int's - Rushing 65 Att. 380 yds, 6 TD's - OROY

[Doc]

The guy's projections from 2012 were way off for RGIII and Russell Wilson, to whom I'd compare Manuel.

[Nanker]

Nice work AJ. Here's a link to all NFL QBs 2012 stats so folks can see how large a grain of sand they might want to take when viewing these statistical projections.

 

Some are pretty close. Here are the actual 2012 stats for the top three under scrutiny:

Player Attempts Completions Complete % Yards YPA TDs INTs
Luck 627 339 54.1% 4,374 yards 7.0 average 23 tds 18 ints
RG3 393 258 63.3% 3,200 yards 8.1 average 20 tds 5 ints
Wilson 393 252 64.1% 3,118 yards 7.9 average 26 tds 10 ints

 

Here were the projections for the triad of trophy QBs (rounded for "reality's sake"):

Player Attempts Completions Complete % Yards YPA TDs INTs
Luck 511 307 60% 3,785 yards 7.4 average 27 tds 21 ints
RG3 511 305 59.8% 3,951 yards 7.7 average 25 tds 18 ints
Wilson 482 261 54.3% 3,048 yards 6.3 average 22 tds 17 ints