Analytics department yet to exist @ OBD...quote from Brandon.

[Mr. WEO]

It's interesting to me that the hatred for Russ Brandon is at an all-time high.

 

This in the wake of an offseason that at least by appearances, is the best the Bills have had in a long time.

 

Considering that Brandon was hired on January 1st, it's hard reconciling the immense dislike for the guy versus the team's professionally conducted coaching search, free agency period, and draft.

 

Huh?? How is it that you already forgot that "we won the offseason" last year?!

[peterlaw]

Brandon says "Analytics Department yet to exist"

 

Message to Brandon ...... Winning Football Team also yet to exist ! Get your backside in gear and sort it out NOW.

 

[NoSaint]

 

Football is more complicated than global financial markets. Who knew?

 

If only Buddy Nix had chosen Wall Street he'd certainly be managing billions.

 

thats totally what i said. no, really it is.....

 

 

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Huh?? How is it that you already forgot that "we won the offseason" last year?!

 

I don't know if you attempted to or not but you didn't address the question I asked.

 

Why is the hate for Brandon at an all-time high?

[biglukes]

Brandon says "Analytics Department yet to exist"

 

Message to Brandon ...... Winning Football Team also yet to exist ! Get your backside in gear and sort it out NOW.

We should boycott the team for not having won a game yet. It's May and we're still winless. Way to go Brandon.....

[peterlaw]

 

We should boycott the team for not having won a game yet. It's May and we're still winless. Way to go Brandon.....

 

Why boycott the team ? Why not everybody do everything they can, within their powers to improve the organisation. Seems logical to me.

[NoSaint]

Brandon says "Analytics Department yet to exist"

 

Message to Brandon ...... Winning Football Team also yet to exist ! Get your backside in gear and sort it out NOW.

 

you seem very passionate on this subject, so i can only assume you have a vision or expectations for it. I was curious about your opinion on what the department should entail? Size? Scope of work? Qualifications? Software/hardware to get it done? budget?

 

or will a simple memo saying "its good guys, done!" suffice?

[Jauronimo]

thats totally what i said. no, really it is.....

You claimed financial markets follow more predictable patterns than football with tremendous sample size, which statistically means that these predictable results you speak of (which don't exist) are therefore reliable. Thats a direct implication that you view football as more complicated than the workings of global financial markets.

 

Then you go on to assert that analytics still have little or unreliable application in finance, and that they will have even less relevancy in a more complex field like football, before you went limp toward the end of that last sentence as if it leaves you an out.

[NoSaint]

 

You claimed financial markets follow more predictable patterns than football with tremendous sample size, which statistically means that these predictable results you speak of (which don't exist) are therefore reliable. Thats a direct implication that you view football as more complicated than the workings of global financial markets.

 

Then you go on to assert that analytics still have little or unreliable application in finance, and that they will have even less relevancy in a more complex field like football, before you went limp toward the end of that last sentence as if it leaves you an out.

 

 

predictive nature of huge samples vs small unreliable samples does not equate to complexity. in some ways the two things are a bit apples to oranges.

 

as you walk those sample sizes back to one player for instance who has only a few hundred plays that depend on his ability, his own health (not always disclosed), the talent and health of those around him, play calling, the talent and health and play calling of the team on the other side, situational dependency which can highly skew the analytics, rules changes, how personalities interact etc....

 

Theres a reason that its tough to beat the financial market - generally speaking its well predicted. that doesnt mean its easier or less complex, just that the variables tend to be tested over larger groups, theres more regulations on disclosure of firm and accurate data and less dependent on the human element whereas football is a huuuuge amount of human element in a tiny range of samples and unreliable data.

 

to come full circle to my "out" that you think i gave myself.... in a financial sense, unless you are doing it on some other worldly level, most of the time the analytics being done by your average investor that beat the system on a single companies stock do come back to luck more than most want to admit. to pull the nfl side full circle, of course you want to push the boundaries and have more and better info than your opponent but to this point theres little evidence available to show that any particular analytical method out there is somehow revolutionary for the game, as most of the big fans of the department suggest that there is. if it helps even a play or two, its worth working on, and i therefor support working on it but i dont think its what separates the dumpster from the championship teams.

Edited May 21, 2013 by NoSaint

[Jauronimo]

predictive nature of huge samples vs small unreliable samples does not equate to complexity.

 

as you walk those sample sizes back to one player for instance who has only a few hundred plays that depend on his ability, his own health (not always disclosed), the talent and health of those around him, play calling, the talent and health and play calling of the team on the other side, situational dependency which can highly skew the analytics, rules changes, etc....

 

Theres a reason that its tough to beat the market - generally speaking its well predicted. that doesnt mean its easier or less complex, just that the variables tend to be tested over larger groups, theres more regulations on disclosure of firm and accurate data and less dependent on the human element whereas football is a huuuuge amount of human element in a tiny range of samples and unreliable data.

The reason that its tough to beat the market is because the market is UNpredictable. Were the market predictable, it would be easy to beat S&P by pure sector allocation. Pick the sector that will overperform rather than a composite of the 500 largest companies. We'd all be rich. Not you evidently, but most of us would be. Markets are made up of thousands of people both rational and highly irrational all with different strategies and motivations, acting on different information. Markets react to droughts in Africa, tsunamis in Asia, unrest in the middle east, any and all global developments of import. How predictable was it that the housing market would burst and equity values would decline by 40% overnight? Even the biggest efficient market proponent would NEVER describe markets as predictable, let alone, well predicted.

 

You don't know how analytics will be used to make or assist with football decisions. Thats fair. Neither do I. But you've assumed it will be used to predict or assess individual performance a la money ball. You also assume that analytics will prove to be a dead end in regards to football based in part on your characterization of financial markets and view of analytics as a predictive tool therein. You may end up being correct, but not for those reasons .

 

Like I said before, I also do not know how analytics will be used to guide football decisions. I, however, understand how analytical tools can be used to guide and assist financial decisions. I could see analytics playing a role as a comparative tool, or procedural tool. Given the role analytics plays in the biggest, most profitable and least predictable game on earth, I believe analytics will have some light to shed on football decisions. My hunch may prove wrong, but I like my argument a lot more.

[NoSaint]

 

The reason that its tough to beat the market is because the market is UNpredictable. Were the market predictable, it would be easy to beat S&P by pure sector allocation. Pick the sector that will overperform rather than a composite of the 500 largest companies. We'd all be rich. Not you evidently, but most of us would be. Markets are made up of thousands of people both rational and highly irrational all with different strategies and motivations, acting on different information. Markets react to droughts in Africa, tsunamis in Asia, unrest in the middle east, any and all global developments of import. How predictable was it that the housing market would burst and equity values would decline by 40% overnight? Even the biggest efficient market proponent would NEVER describe markets as predictable, let alone, well predicted.

 

You don't know how analytics will be used to make or assist with football decisions. Thats fair. Neither do I. But you've assumed it will be used to predict or assess individual performance a la money ball. You also assume that analytics will prove to be a dead end in regards to football based in part on your characterization of financial markets and view of analytics as a predictive tool therein. You may end up being correct, but not for those reasons .

 

Like I said before, I also do not know how analytics will be used to guide football decisions. I, however, understand how analytical tools can be used to guide and assist financial decisions. I could see analytics playing a role as a comparative tool, or procedural tool. Given the role analytics plays in the biggest, most profitable and least predictable game on earth, I believe analytics will have some light to shed on football decisions. My hunch may prove wrong, but I like my argument a lot more.

 

well if we open it up to simply the two terms "analytics" and "football" clearly id agree that theres something to be gained potentially - but i also dont know where we even start that huuuuuuuuuge discussion on the board. and the financial comparison would be a dissertation im not going to get into with a football message board post either. there are a lot of ways its unpredictable and again discussing the term "analytic" and "market" with no context will get us nowhere, but theres also a ton of ways it is predictable in a day to day manner. the fact that its sooooo many people helps balance out outlying situations, something that the small volume in football doesnt do well..... but truly, its a worthless topic of discussion on the level youve presented it here without any context. i will generally speaking that in some senses football and economics are both very predictable and in others they are total wildcards.

 

what i did do is i attempted to zoom in to a level that most fans would be discussing IE money ball, because that is what most in a sports analytics discussion jump straight to. we could talk about it in selecting scouts, coaches, players, plays, how to set up practices, what order to put the equipment in the gym, how to treat injuries and what meals to eat on thursday after practice... but when we discuss analytics on this board i think most go straight to free agency and the draft, with a light sprinkling of situational game calling. i dont think that its going to be something that revolutionizes player selection in the short term, and i think we have a lot more of it than the average poster thinks on the play predicting side.... but on some level you still have it boiling down to a coordinator making a decision on a play based on 10-20 seconds of thought and moreso than the access to the charting from the analytics department... i think the type of brain that would desire an analytics department is the type that likely makes that decision better with or without that data provided to them by the department, and has the study habits and analyzation in their own film breakdown that make the major differences that you would see on sunday - by that line of thought im thrilled we are atleast talking about it although i dont think that we see a huge short term change in the buffalo bills due to this department as much as we do due to the fact that we have guys that want this department (ie forward thinking students of the game).

 

the investment over the long term may be a different discussion though.

 

but yes, to come back to where we started, i clearly think football is more complex than hugely broad term of "the global financial markets..." you really nailed my views on it with that...

Edited May 21, 2013 by NoSaint

[Jauronimo]

well if we open it up to simply the two terms "analytics" and "football" clearly id agree that theres something to be gained potentially - but i also dont know where we even start that huuuuuuuuuge discussion on the board. and the financial comparison would be a dissertation im not going to get into with a football message board post either. there are a lot of ways its unpredictable and again discussing the term "analytic" and "market" with no context will get us nowhere, but theres also a ton of ways it is predictable in a day to day manner. the fact that its sooooo many people helps balance out outlying situations, something that the small volume in football doesnt do well.....

 

what i did do is i attempted to zoom in to a level that most fans would be discussing IE money ball, because that is what most in a sports analytics discussion jump straight to. we could talk about it in selecting scouts, coaches, players, plays, how to set up practices, what order to put the equipment in the gym and what meals to eat on thursday after practice... but when we discuss analytics on this board i think most go straight to free agency and the draft, with a light sprinkling of situational game calling. i dont think that its going to be something that revolutionizes player selection in the short term, and i think we have a lot more of it than the average poster thinks on the play predicting side.... but on some level you still have it boiling down to a coordinator making a decision on a play based on 10-20 seconds of thought and moreso than the access to the charting from the analytics department... i think the type of brain that would desire an analytics department is the type that likely makes that decision better with or without that data provided to them by the department, and has the study habits and analyzation in their own film breakdown that make the major differences that you would see on sunday - by that line of thought im thrilled we are atleast talking about it although i dont think that we see a huge short term change in the buffalo bills due to this department as much as we do due to the fact that we have guys that want this department (ie forward thinking students of the game).

 

the investment over the long term may be a different discussion though.

Its not a "huuuuuge discussion". My point was pretty succinct, and your counter argument to my point was just plain wrong.

 

I don't think the financial discussion is one that you're equipped to have. By all means, stick with your initial hunch that analytics will have minimal value in the realm of football, but rather than ramble on for a few more pages getting increasingly more wishy washy, why don't you just put the whole "markets are predictable and therefore analytics will not translate to football" position to bed?

 

Do that and I'll ignore your latest point about how an analytics department would value someone who ignores data, facts, the quantifiable, and the all other building blocks of analysis in preference of the totally subjective.

[NoSaint]

 

Its not a "huuuuuge discussion". My point was pretty succinct, and your counter argument to my point was just plain wrong.

 

I don't think the financial discussion is one that you're equipped to have. By all means, stick with your initial hunch that analytics will have minimal value in the realm of football, but rather than ramble on for a few more pages getting increasingly more wishy washy, why don't you just put the whole "markets are predictable and therefore analytics will not translate to football" position to bed?

 

Do that and I'll ignore your latest point about how an analytics department would value someone who ignores data, facts, the quantifiable, and the all other building blocks of analysis in preference of the totally subjective.

 

sorry but just putting the terms "global markets" and "analytics" next to each other is about as huge a discussion as you could open up short of hey lets talk about "world peace"

 

if you want to talk specific examples of either id be glad, but i dont think the financial side is at all suited for here and unless you want to drill down on specifics of the football side its not going to get anywhere. ive been a bit shooting off the cuff while working on something else, so if ive gotten too all over the place (and i likely have - heck re-reading i certainly have), dont take that as not understanding analytics, financials, or football as i assure you i have atleast a functioning grasp on all 3, although here we are on a message board this fine tuesday afternoon so im guessing neither of us is changing the world with our knowledge of any of them. my main, and continuing problem is you are using the terms far too broadly to have any real talk about predictive power within a field. my main assertion from the get go is that small sample size, plus a huge number of variables, many of which have no real quantifiable measure or reliability make football predictability very difficult - especially in player valuation.

 

if you want to talk player selection, lets go there

if you want to talk play selection, lets go there

but if we arent going to discuss specific analytical tools as related to specific uses - yea wishy washy is the direction the conversation is obviously going to go. i think thats the most frustrating part of people wanting to talk analytics on here.... nearly none of them want to get into tools meeting purposes and instead stay waaaaaaaay high level and without goals or measurable outcomes etc... just "give me an analytics department!!!" with little reference to what they are actually analyzing or the focuses they want involved or whether that actually is something that is possible to achieve.

Edited May 21, 2013 by NoSaint

[3rdand12]

Some people need a villain. Otherwise, they might have to do more self reflection...

I never liked you. you you communist. you card carrying bolshevic you! and you're in cahoots with the red menace

 

Oh wait. i might have misunderstood your first sentence.

I thought it was an offering of your service. in replacement of Brandon or Ralph or Chris Kelsay.

But if you are a willing icon of ire, maybe you could shoot an email to Mario. He's is into self reflection lately. i hear

[Jauronimo]

sorry but just putting the terms "global markets" and "analytics" next to each other is about as huge a discussion as you could open up short of hey lets talk about "world peace"

 

if you want to talk specific examples of either id be glad, but i dont think the financial side is at all suited for here and unless you want to drill down on specifics of the football side its not going to get anywhere. ive been a bit shooting off the cuff while working on something else, so if ive gotten too all over the place (and i likely have - heck re-reading i certainly have), dont take that as not understanding analytics, financials, or football as i assure you i have atleast a functioning grasp on all 3, although here we are on a message board this fine tuesday afternoon so im guessing neither of us is changing the world with our knowledge of any of them. my main, and continuing problem is you are using the terms far too broadly to have any real talk about predictive power within a field. my main assertion from the get go is that small sample size, plus a huge number of variables, many of which have no real quantifiable measure or reliability make football predictability very difficult - especially in player valuation.

 

if you want to talk player selection, lets go there

if you want to talk play selection, lets go there

but if we arent going to discuss specific analytical tools as related to specific uses - yea wishy washy is the direction the conversation is obviously going to go. i think thats the most frustrating part of people wanting to talk analytics on here.... nearly none of them want to get into tools meeting purposes and instead stay waaaaaaaay high level and without goals or measurable outcomes etc... just "give me an analytics department!!!" with little reference to what they are actually analyzing or the focuses they want involved or whether that actually is something that is possible to achieve.

You've been consistently incorrect in every attempt to address my painfully brief, initial point which stands: If analytics can add value to financial market based decisions, then I believe it can add value on the football field.

 

You've responded by fundamentally mis-characterizing the nature of markets, hypotheticals of how analytics will be used in football with pretty questionable assumptions regarding the expected results, and some rather bizarre views on how the analytics department would be run with little emphasis on data and facts.

 

I can see you're playing hard for an agree-to-disagree resolution by softening your positions and trying to steer this discussion in a different direction, but I just don't feel like letting you off the hook as I've already taken the time to address each of your counter arguments. I'm certainly not going down the rabbit hole with you as you, deliberately or otherwise, obfuscate and distance yourself from the initial discussion by going in 500 different directions.

 

Stand by your opinion regarding the role of analytics in football, as its just as valid as mine, but stop pretending that the "dissertation" you alluded to could in any way rationalize your truly indefensible argument that "analytics is appropriate for financial markets which are predictable, but football is too complicated for analytics".

[NoSaint]

 

You've been consistently incorrect in every attempt to address my painfully brief, initial point which stands: If analytics can add value to financial market based decisions, then I believe it can add value on the football field.

 

You've responded by fundamentally mis-characterizing the nature of markets, hypotheticals of how analytics will be used in football with pretty questionable assumptions regarding the expected results, and some rather bizarre views on how the analytics department would be run with little emphasis on data and facts.

 

I can see you're playing hard for an agree-to-disagree resolution by softening your positions and trying to steer this discussion in a different direction, but I just don't feel like letting you off the hook as I've already taken the time to address each of your counter arguments. I'm certainly not going down the rabbit hole with you as you, deliberately or otherwise, obfuscate and distance yourself from the initial discussion by going in 500 different directions.

 

Stand by your opinion regarding the role of analytics in football, as its just as valid as mine, but stop pretending that the "dissertation" you alluded to could in any way rationalize your truly indefensible argument that "analytics is appropriate for financial markets which are predictable, but football is too complicated for analytics".

 

You seem to interchange "complicated" and "predictable" freely when addressing this which is totally innappropriate to addressing the issues at hand, and without doubt youll avoid getting into any specifics.

 

I've agreed that value could be found but that its application is nothing like the average fan is picturing and its value add is far less than typically predicted by the peterlaws of the discussion demanding analytics now. Unless your willing to discuss specific applications your argument amounts to "analytics good!" Which sure, they are but what does that amount to in real application? Again, I doubt you'll go down that road... My point from the get go is that most really have no clue how to apply them including many in the nfl offices which makes it, especially short term, an aspiration more than a practical application. I'm glad our guys aspire to it as I said early it means they are forward thinking and willing to explore the cutting edge but come free agency or the 3rd quarter of the 3rd Sunday of November on 2nd and 3 we likely aren't going to suddenly have a huge advantage nor have we likely had a large deficit in the past based on the very nature of the datas limitations which you are inputting.

Edited May 21, 2013 by NoSaint

[3rdand12]

If you apply certain tools to any subject matter.. you may well be able to dissect it to it's most minute component. In time. Then you can work your way back into the complicated and busy bits.

I hate to get weird. well no i dont. But when you work in manufacturing there are tools available to dissect any process and put it back together in a much more informed or transparent way or view. It takes a while and it tales a serious investment and commitment the from the Management, top to bottom.

for you geeks . The process is not value added. But a necessary waste.

And it takes time to see the results. You go after the big items first.

Say Coaching, Quarterback, and GM. We took a heavy swing at those big ticket items all in one offeseason !! Then you dial in the smaller stuff. like the other players and the groundskeeper and the price of beers .

[eball]

Ladies...

[NoSaint]

If you apply certain tools to any subject matter.. you may well be able to dissect it to it's most minute component. In time. Then you can work your way back into the complicated and busy bits.

I hate to get weird. well no i dont. But when you work in manufacturing there are tools available to dissect any process and put it back together in a much more informed or transparent way or view. It takes a while and it tales a serious investment and commitment the from the Management, top to bottom.

for you geeks . The process is not value added. But a necessary waste.

And it takes time to see the results. You go after the big items first.

Say Coaching, Quarterback, and GM. We took a heavy swing at those big ticket items all in one offeseason !! Then you dial in the smaller stuff. like the other players and the groundskeeper and the price of beers .

 

Definitely, and you can grow your analysis of any of those decisions but on the big ticket stuff, were not about to turn the world upside down in the process of selecting that qb or head coach or GM just cause we got an analytics department set up, and just because we don't have the department doesn't mean our coaches and scouts are charting trends and tendencies already.

 

Ladies...

 

Hey, I tried to leave an out but was told I wouldn't be allowed to let it go!

 

I still think its fair for those demanding it be here faster, and bashing Brandon etc... To be asked what exactly they want and what they think it will achieve. To date that amounts to "I dunno but it's good!"

 

Sure, more smart people in the room tends to be better but what does it really mean in application? Or will we potentially be muddying up the waters instead of getting a clearer picture, for instance. They still need to be quality people with defined goals and the tools to achieve them -

 

on an aside, if you don't trust Brandon I'm not sure why you trust him to achieve building that.

 

Cool a guy has a PFF grade of +6.4, how do we use that to get better and what does it really even mean?

 

Awesome, on third and short on the road trailing in the second half with this personnel group they have run twice and passed once but their TE is injured today and the running back is favoring his ankle a little. Good to know but how do you create value from that? The truth is a coordinator will still mostly be going in his gut and a feel for the game and it may help occasionally if you pick up a trend the other team doesn't realize they have but were searching for those already and odds are they are ramping up a team of guys to make sure they don't have those tendencies.

Edited May 21, 2013 by NoSaint

[3rdand12]

NS i am not suggesting or defending that the A word as applied to Bills FO made those descisions and or created the results we now see. But they could . and the method is to go for the big hitters and quietly dial in the other bits. Thats constant improvement

walk it. choose points and execute. watch results. modify after data is collected .

Russ has always been doing this and has an easy measurable... Ticket sales. It is mostly a business creating a product that a customer wants. For Marrone the measurables are much more complex. for Hackett n Pettine a little less. For the beer vendor, maybe even less. maybe...

Edited May 22, 2013 by 3rdand12