Bills trade Kelvin Shephard

[Kelly the Dog]

Not in so many words, but the Nix detractors consistently throw out the W-L record as evidence of the poor job he's doing. I attribute that more to coaching. Just my opinion.

I stick up for Nix more than most, even though I think he has done a mediocre job. You couldn't really call what he has done so far "good", although I love this last draft, and I'm very excited for the future of this team. I wanted him gone after the draft and for Whaley to take over although I'm not sure when that will happen.

 

As of right now, you have to blame him for the Gailey hire, even though few guys wanted to coach here as far as big names. He didn't HAVE to go back to his comfort zone of an old school Southerner. There were other retreads who would have been thrilled with the job. There were other coordinators who would have jumped at the job. I agree he doesn't coach the team, and Gailey "could" have worked out if the ball bounced a little differently. But it's somewhat of a buck stops here profession. He made that choice and he has to pay for it.

 

I do think, or perhaps hopefully think, that in the future we will think of Nix differently. If Manuel pans out, which is still a 50/50 proposition despite how great of a guy he is, this team Nix has assembled could turn the corner. Then he will have set the team up for the future and he has assembled some good players. Marrone COULD be a good coach, and Pettine a terrific DC and the team really could blossom.

 

But a lot has to happen for Nix to be looked at as anything other than mediocre. I am not at all a Nix hater, but his first three years are in the books and they have been a disaster. The future may absolve some of it, and he will be looked at a lot differently. He may even be looked at as very good if everything pans out, But if it does, he still would have started very slowly.

 

And I agree with 90% of your timeline. His coach didn't work out. Some of his high picks didn't work out. He had some bad luck. He didn't start with much. But right now it is not a good record.

 

Hopefully this draft will turn the team and franchise and Nix's legacy around. It has a chance.

[eball]

I believe you are entitled to your opinion and thank you for sharing it with other Bills fans. We just don't agree. I see Nix as involved and actively engaged in the direction of this team the last 3 years. He owns a piece of it, good and bad.

 

As do I. Sorry you see my comments as reflecting something different.

 

I stick up for Nix more than most, even though I think he has done a mediocre job. You couldn't really call what he has done so far "good", although I love this last draft, and I'm very excited for the future of this team. I wanted him gone after the draft and for Whaley to take over although I'm not sure when that will happen.

 

As of right now, you have to blame him for the Gailey hire, even though few guys wanted to coach here as far as big names. He didn't HAVE to go back to his comfort zone of an old school Southerner. There were other retreads who would have been thrilled with the job. There were other coordinators who would have jumped at the job. I agree he doesn't coach the team, and Gailey "could" have worked out if the ball bounced a little differently. But it's somewhat of a buck stops here profession. He made that choice and he has to pay for it.

 

I do think, or perhaps hopefully think, that in the future we will think of Nix differently. If Manuel pans out, which is still a 50/50 proposition despite how great of a guy he is, this team Nix has assembled could turn the corner. Then he will have set the team up for the future and he has assembled some good players. Marrone COULD be a good coach, and Pettine a terrific DC and the team really could blossom.

 

But a lot has to happen for Nix to be looked at as anything other than mediocre. I am not at all a Nix hater, but his first three years are in the books and they have been a disaster. The future may absolve some of it, and he will be looked at a lot differently. He may even be looked at as very good if everything pans out, But if it does, he still would have started very slowly.

 

And I agree with 90% of your timeline. His coach didn't work out. Some of his high picks didn't work out. He had some bad luck. He didn't start with much. But right now it is not a good record.

 

Hopefully this draft will turn the team and franchise and Nix's legacy around. It has a chance.

 

Kelly, we are thinking along the same lines; I just have a tendency to go slightly overboard on the support side of things (which I recognize). Thanks for your comments.

[HankBulloughMellencamp]

As a greenhorn compared to some of you more prolific posters here at TBD, I enjoyed the discourse in this thread ... it is one that I have been longing to see on the Stadium Wall. Unheralded MLBs such as Mark Maddox, David White, Angelo Crowell, John DiGiorgio and perhaps even Garth Jax made more key plays from the middle than Kelvin.

 

So at this point, we have clearly established that Sheppard was a bad pick, and Gailey was a bad hire for Mr. Nix. Whatever people now think of Buddy is more in the eye of the beholder based on their respective confidence in where the Bills are now headed.

 

By no means am I satisfied with Nix's first three years. But SJBF's point about Modrak still being around as head of college scouting (or whatever he was) for Nix's first year is well taken. What a mess we were, who knows where Ralph's head truly was at the end of the Jauron era. But i really like what I see from the last two drafts in particular.

 

I will say this about Nix ... every time I hear him speak, he usually makes sense to me. I don't religiously listen to his WGR show or anything, but when I do catch clips from it, I usually come away liking what I hear from him.

 

And I admit that my bias might very well stem from the fact that I love his folksy southern accent ... reminds me so much of Roscoe P. Coltrane with his dog Flash by his side in the front seat. And there is my peace offering/alley-oop lob for you 'Nix-is-a-buffoon' detractors ... dunk away!

[Cold Front]

As do I. Sorry you see my comments as reflecting something different.

 

 

 

Kelly, we are thinking along the same lines; I just have a tendency to go slightly overboard on the support side of things (which I recognize). Thanks for your comments.

I tend to agree with you. I think where Nix and past GM's here have failed is not in their ability to scout and evaluate potential players, but in their inability to hire Head Coaches who can also evaluate and develop players. Although Nix has the final say on personnel decisions, we here every year around the draft how player X was drafted because everyone was on board with the selection. This process starts when the coaching staff meets with the scouting dept. and say this is what system we are running and what our needs are. When the scouting dept. and coaching staff meet and start assembling their board prior to the draft this is where i believe the breakdown in judgement occurs. I believe this is how we end up with player's like Maybe being drafted by Juron, and Shep drafted by Gailey and Wanny who was LB coach at the time. Chan was a great X's&O's coach, but horrid at evaluating talent (edwards over fitz, lynch over freddy, ect...) . I'm hopeful that Nix made the right decision with Marrone not just as our HC, but also as an evaluator and developer of talent. I like from Marrone so far, he reminds me of a younger less arrogant Bill Parcells. As far as the selection of EJ3, I considered Nassib as the benchmark that Marrone, Hackett, and the scouting dept. could make comparisons to during evaluations. If Manuel graded out as their highest rated and potential franchise QB, I could careless when he was drafted, so long as they're right. Go Bills!

[hondo in seattle]

It's hard to evaluate Nix because even good GMs have good years and bad years. No GM is 100% perfect on all their coaching, FA, and drafting decisions.

 

Nix screwed up with the Gailey hire. Gailey screwed up with his DC hires. That's all true... but all things of the past. Nix may have redeemed himself with the Marrone hire. In other words, I agree Nix has shot himself in the foot with some of his decisions. I'm just not sure yet that the wounds are fatal. We might be heading up now.

[NoSaint]

It's hard to evaluate Nix because even good GMs have good years and bad years. No GM is 100% perfect on all their coaching, FA, and drafting decisions.

 

Nix screwed up with the Gailey hire. Gailey screwed up with his DC hires. That's all true... but all things of the past. Nix may have redeemed himself with the Marrone hire. In other words, I agree Nix has shot himself in the foot with some of his decisions. I'm just not sure yet that the wounds are fatal. We might be heading up now.

 

Agreed. On some level the evaluation is incredibly simple - qb and coach are the two biggest decisions and he missed them.

 

Now you can go in depth and That can funnel down and be said for an offensive coach the two biggest choices are qb and DC, and chan also missed those.... And from there the scheme swapping on D wasted a lot of picks, depth and FA dollars trying to restock the cupboard with each switch. Heck, were in the middle of restocking again, this time on both sides of the ball.

 

 

However nix is still around and getting a second shot at each. Odds are that he won't be 0% on his big choices over the long term. Most gms don't get the benefit of the law of averages - they get one shot at the big choices. It's an interesting situation.

 

I'm not going to wildly laud his other choices but given the failure at the top level I think he's done at worst about league average with the the rest of it.

 

Short answer: he's come up short on the biggest decisions but I have (perhaps misguided) hope that he could do better long term.

[Magox]

 

 

As of right now, you have to blame him for the Gailey hire, even though few guys wanted to coach here as far as big names. He didn't HAVE to go back to his comfort zone of an old school Southerner. There were other retreads who would have been thrilled with the job. There were other coordinators who would have jumped at the job. I agree he doesn't coach the team, and Gailey "could" have worked out if the ball bounced a little differently. But it's somewhat of a buck stops here profession. He made that choice and he has to pay for it.

 

 

Don't forget the Fitz contract re negotiation, that was a complete, utter debacle.

[Kelly the Dog]

Don't forget the Fitz contract re negotiation, that was a complete, utter debacle.

Not really. It just didn't work out. Fitz was paid a 19th rated contract for starting QB and he responded by having about 19 rated numbers. The contract allowed for the Bills to get out of it this year without tremendous damage to the cap, which they did. It did NOT, in any way, really prevent them from taking a franchise QB in the first round (none were really available after it that seemed like franchise QBs) and Nix even stated as much publicly that if we see one we will take one. It did NOT in any way prevent Nix from taking a guy like Kaep or Russell Wilson, who were both taken by teams with starting QBs and projected as projects/back-ups even by the teams that drafted them. Nix's fault was not taking one of them in retrospect, as a back-up and potential starter down the line.

[Magox]

Not really. It just didn't work out. Fitz was paid a 19th rated contract for starting QB and he responded by having about 19 rated numbers. The contract allowed for the Bills to get out of it this year without tremendous damage to the cap, which they did. It did NOT, in any way, really prevent them from taking a franchise QB in the first round (none were really available after it that seemed like franchise QBs) and Nix even stated as much publicly that if we see one we will take one. It did NOT in any way prevent Nix from taking a guy like Kaep or Russell Wilson, who were both taken by teams with starting QBs and projected as projects/back-ups even by the teams that drafted them. Nix's fault was not taking one of them in retrospect, as a back-up and potential starter down the line.

 

I completely disagree with the premise that "it just didn't work out". Even if I were to accept this argument, he made the wrong call, and at the end of the day that's what it is largely about, picking the "right" guys.

 

My main problem with the signing was the evaluation process. I would like to believe that before you give a large financial commitment to a NFL quarterback, specially one that wasn't a blue chip prospect coming out of college, that you vet the candidate thoroughly. He had five or six good games, Bills fans and apparently Nix as well was feeling the euphoria of the mini winning streak we had, and he bit on that sentiment and offered a contract that he shouldn't have. For crying out loud, he should have at least waited till the end of the season to give a more complete evaluation before the commitment was made. And I reject the notion that if we would of waited till the end of the year that we would of lost him to another bidding team.

 

It was a classic case of buying high. Not only did Nix make the purchase at a high, but it was at his absolute record high.

 

So I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree on this one.

[Sisyphean Bills]

I completely disagree with the premise that "it just didn't work out". Even if I were to accept this argument, he made the wrong call, and at the end of the day that's what it is largely about, picking the "right" guys.

 

My main problem with the signing was the evaluation process. I would like to believe that before you give a large financial commitment to a NFL quarterback, specially one that wasn't a blue chip prospect coming out of college, that you vet the candidate thoroughly. He had five or six good games, Bills fans and apparently Nix as well was feeling the euphoria of the mini winning streak we had, and he bit on that sentiment and offered a contract that he shouldn't have. For crying out loud, he should have at least waited till the end of the season to give a more complete evaluation before the commitment was made. And I reject the notion that if we would of waited till the end of the year that we would of lost him to another bidding team.

 

It was a classic case of buying high. Not only did Nix make the purchase at a high, but it was at his absolute record high.

 

So I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree on this one.

 

The really damaging part was that it lead them to believe and plan as if they could soft-pedal the QB need in 2012, forcing desperation in 2013. Still, if Manuel turns into a great QB, then it is moot and we're all happy. On the other hand, if 2013 turns into another 2002 crop of QBs, then it was a strategic miscalculation that will cause pain for us for another 5 to 7 years.

[Kelly the Dog]

I completely disagree with the premise that "it just didn't work out". Even if I were to accept this argument, he made the wrong call, and at the end of the day that's what it is largely about, picking the "right" guys.

 

My main problem with the signing was the evaluation process. I would like to believe that before you give a large financial commitment to a NFL quarterback, specially one that wasn't a blue chip prospect coming out of college, that you vet the candidate thoroughly. He had five or six good games, Bills fans and apparently Nix as well was feeling the euphoria of the mini winning streak we had, and he bit on that sentiment and offered a contract that he shouldn't have. For crying out loud, he should have at least waited till the end of the season to give a more complete evaluation before the commitment was made. And I reject the notion that if we would of waited till the end of the year that we would of lost him to another bidding team.

 

It was a classic case of buying high. Not only did Nix make the purchase at a high, but it was at his absolute record high.

 

So I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree on this one.

Oh I think he made the wrong call, too. Like he did with Chan. And he should pay for it with his job. My point was only that it was not an exorbitant contract, it was market value for what Fitz was, and below market value for what he was at the time. He didn't just have a few good games, he played pretty darn good the year before. But the biggest point was that it wasn't in lieu of not picking back-up QBs who turned into stars like Kaep and Wilson. Those were much bigger mistakes than the Fitz contract. Even if he waited until the end of the season, Fitz would have likely still been here, and the same thing would have transpired.

 

It was a mistake and a bad one in retrospect. But it didn't change much. He still wasnt going to draft Russell Wilson in the first or second round. No one was going to and no one did.

[eball]

It was a classic case of buying high. Not only did Nix make the purchase at a high, but it was at his absolute record high.

 

So I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree on this one.

 

You missed the part where Fitz was paid at a level approximating the 19th best QB in the league -- and his stats (even after the deal) supported that assessment. It was not a "debacle" from a financial perspective; it was an error in believing Fitz would be the long-term answer. That falls on Chan, and on Nix for trusting Chan's assessment. The Bills absolutely did not "panic" and extend Fitz out of fear his value would continue to rise. That's absurd.

[Magox]

You missed the part where Fitz was paid at a level approximating the 19th best QB in the league -- and his stats (even after the deal) supported that assessment. It was not a "debacle" from a financial perspective; it was an error in believing Fitz would be the long-term answer. That falls on Chan, and on Nix for trusting Chan's assessment. The Bills absolutely did not "panic" and extend Fitz out of fear his value would continue to rise. That's absurd.

 

They did panic and to believe they didn't is absurd. See how I did that?

 

 

But let me delve into this a little further. So he was paid at a level of "19th best QB in the league" and your basis of support is that his stats backs this assessment? What after 5-6 games? Even if you take his full year's stats, which is silly to judge by considering that the contract was offered less than halfway through the season, it was clear by just going by the eyeball test that he wasn't a starting caliber NFL QB.

 

You see, my main criticism was the process and philosophy of how the contract came about. It would have been one thing if he had a pedigree of a blue chip prospect or anything remotely considered to that level of play coming out of college. He wasn't. To give a contract offer at the caliber of an Average starting NFL QB to someone with no pedigree, very limited arm strength, questionable mechanics and an extremely limited body of work to judge him by, was clearly a flawed decision on his part, which again goes back to the process and philosophy that I was just talking about. This is not a hindsight argument.

 

The more appropriate and logical approach would have been to wait till after the season to evaluate the player before the contract would have been offered.

Edited May 2, 2013 by Magox

[Coach Tuesday]

 

 

Where have you heard those whispers?

 

Wawrow seemed to be suggesting it in several posts after the hiring was announced.

Edited May 2, 2013 by Coach Tuesday

[eball]

They did panic and to believe they didn't is absurd. See how I did that?

 

 

But let me delve into this a little further. So he was paid at a level of "19th best QB in the league" and your basis of support is that his stats backs this assessment? What after 5-6 games? Even if you take his full year's stats, which is silly to judge by considering that the contract was offered less than halfway through the season, it was clear by just going by the eyeball test that he wasn't a starting caliber NFL QB.

 

You see, my main criticism was the process and philosophy of how the contract came about. It would have been one thing if he had a pedigree of a blue chip prospect or anything remotely considered to that level of play coming out of college. He wasn't. To give a contract offer at the caliber of an Average starting NFL QB to someone with no pedigree, very limited arm strength, questionable mechanics and an extremely limited body of work to judge him by, was clearly a flawed decision on his part, which again goes back to the process and philosophy that I was just talking about. This is not a hindsight argument.

 

The more appropriate and logical approach would have been to wait till after the season to evaluate the player before the contract would have been offered.

 

We'll just agree to disagree. Fitz already had the previous season under Gailey when he threw 23 TDs in 14 games. So, in reality, they had 20 games upon which to reflect when making the extension -- not the "5 or 6" you suggest.

 

I don't know why people keep harping on this. Fitz wasn't the answer. But his contract wasn't completed out of "panic" and it wasn't financially disastrous.

[Coach Tuesday]

 

 

We'll just agree to disagree. Fitz already had the previous season under Gailey when he threw 23 TDs in 14 games. So, in reality, they had 20 games upon which to reflect when making the extension -- not the "5 or 6" you suggest.

 

I don't know why people keep harping on this. Fitz wasn't the answer. But his contract wasn't completed out of "panic" and it wasn't financially disastrous.

 

Why did it need to get done at that time? Why couldn't they have waited?

[Kelly the Dog]

 

 

Why did it need to get done at that time? Why couldn't they have waited?

Because if he continued at nearly that pace it would have cost them 20 million more.

[Coach Tuesday]

 

Because if he continued at nearly that pace it would have cost them 20 million more.

 

Exactly my point. They were hoping to get a bargain.

[Magox]

Because if he continued at nearly that pace it would have cost them 20 million more.

We'll just agree to disagree. Fitz already had the previous season under Gailey when he threw 23 TDs in 14 games. So, in reality, they had 20 games upon which to reflect when making the extension -- not the "5 or 6" you suggest.

 

I don't know why people keep harping on this. Fitz wasn't the answer. But his contract wasn't completed out of "panic" and it wasn't financially disastrous.

 

It's not harping, Kelly made a comment and I just simply pointed out the Fitz signing and then that's how the discussion ensued.

 

Also, in regards to Kelly's comment that he would of cost more. I just don't buy that, it's not as if Fitz's lack of arm strength, pedigree and mechanics would have been a secret that they would of uncovered after wards, it was right there for everyone to see.

[HankBulloughMellencamp]

It's not harping, Kelly made a comment and I just simply pointed out the Fitz signing and then that's how the discussion ensued.

 

Also, in regards to Kelly's comment that he would of cost more. I just don't buy that, it's not as if Fitz's lack of arm strength, pedigree and mechanics would have been a secret that they would of uncovered after wards, it was right there for everyone to see.

 

As were his stats and wins against the Raiders, Pats and Eagles at home, he was our guy, happy days were thought to be here again ... you seem to have perfect selective hindsight - don't you remember? All signs were pointing upward on the Fitz-o-meter at that time ... and he was being paid far below starting QB numbers.

 

We all now know that Fitz fizzled once he autographed the deal, but if he hadn't, he could have commanded more at years end. It was a show of good faith and a way of locking him up more than a panic move.