Bills trade Kelvin Shephard

[JohnC]

I feel this way too and have posted that thought more than once.

 

The two biggest determinants for success in the NFL is a good QB and a good Head Coach.

 

Nix finally pulled the trigger on a QB and was given the good fortune of hiring his second Head Coach.

 

Wanny is gone too.

 

While I'm very lukewarm about the job Nix did in his first three years, his biggest failings were hiring Gailey and not drafting Kaepernick or Russell Wilson.

 

All the rest of his work is average IMO.

 

And I believe in stories of redemption. Be careful of damning the tenure of Buddy Nix. It might be premature.

 

You don't need to respond to me because this topic has been exhausted. Going in circles is going in circles.

 

Go back and read your response. You are essentially saying what I have been saying on this topic. My basic point is that over the past three years prior to this draft he has done a mediocre job. I haven't accused him of being a buffoon or grossly incompetent. His performance is reflected in his record.

 

As far as the issue of redemption regarding his future performance that is beside the point. If he did a better job in rebuilding this team in his first three years as the boss of the football operation there would now be a stronger foundation for this franchise to build on.

 

Those responders arguing that he is an average or less GM are certainly not making the case that he has done a good job. That is exactly my point.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

You don't need to respond to me because this topic has been exhausted. Going in circles is going in circles.

 

Go back and read your response. You are essentially saying what I have been saying on this topic. My basic point is that over the past three years prior to this draft he has done a mediocre job. I haven't accused him of being a buffoon or grossly incompetent. His performance is reflected in his record.

 

As far as the issue of redemption regarding his future performance that is beside the point. If he did a better job in rebuilding this team in his first three years as the boss of the football operation there would now be a stronger foundation for this franchise to build on.

 

Those responders arguing that he is an average or less GM are certainly not making the case that he has done a good job. That is exactly my point.

 

I'm not sure why you're responding to me.

 

I was responding to Hank Bullough and he was responding to Kelly.

 

I wasn't addressing you.

 

As for going in circles, my point was one that had not been made before: it would be practical and also in good faith to not close judgement on Buddy Nix's tenure.

[eball]

I haven't said he is a buffoon. He is a fine fellow. What I have unequivocally said is as a GM he is mediocre. Not getting everything wrong doesn't mean you are doing a good job. His record is 16-32. Making a judgment on him doesn't require cherry picking.

 

John, let's recap what (I believe) happened with the Buffalo Bills since Jauron/Fewell and Levy were relieved of their HC and GM duties, respectively, at the conclusion of the 2009 season:

 

1 -- Ralph hires Buddy Nix to be his GM, bringing back a trusted scout with documented success in SD to help rebuild the franchise

2 -- Buddy has to hire a HC, but top candidates don't want the job; he "settles" on Chan Gailey, who receives recommendations from respected NFL sources like Bill Cowher

3 -- Having hired his HC, Buddy does what any GM would do -- he allows the HC to assemble his staff and determine the direction of the team

4 -- As a GM, Buddy listens to his HC as to the types of players he wants, and directs his scouting department accordingly

5 -- Players are drafted to fit the style Gailey wants

6 -- Gailey's first season (2010) reflects the overall poor talent level on the team, but signs of progress during the 2nd half of the season provide reason for hope

7 -- Quick start to 2011 has many believing the Bills are turning the corner, including the inspired play of Fitzpatrick that leads to a reasonable contract extension for a middle-tier starting QB

8 -- Fitz and entire team slump badly down the stretch in 2011; defense is in shambles leading Gailey to make change at DC to Wannstedt

9 -- In an effort to bolster the defense Nix recruits and signs Mario, something just about everyone thought would be impossible for Nix to accomplish

10 -- Fitz regresses, Gailey shows an inability to manage the team on gamedays, and Wannstedt completely schitts the bed -- resulting in a dreadful 2012 season

11 -- Ralph turns over reigns to Russ, Nix fires Gailey and entire staff, and current rebuilding process begins

12 -- Bills hire HC before other teams with vacancies, leading to presumption they got "their guy" -- 180-degree turnaround from 2009

13 -- Buddy, like any GM, reviews roster with new staff and begins making changes to fit style of Marrone/Pettine

14 -- Here we are

 

Aside from nitpicking whether certain draft picks have panned out -- something that can be done with EVERY other NFL franchise -- and accepting Nix's own concession he wishes he had drafted a QB earlier -- what has he done to constitute this perception he is "mediocre" or worse? Much of the starting talent on this roster was acquired under Nix's direction. I see the W-L record thown up as evidence of his mediocrity, but are we really putting that 4-12 from 2010 on his back? Sure, 12-20 sucks also, but since when does a GM take the blame for a coaching staff's failure? Should Buddy have fired Gailey sooner? There's really no justification for that -- the earliest firing would really have had to come in the middle of last year, and would that have helped anything? LOTS of people believed the Bills were on the right track going into 2012. What GM insists upon the coaches his HC wants to put in place?

 

In what I hope will be my last comments on this topic for a while, I'd just like to say that judging Buddy now by simply shouting "16-32!!" is, in my opinion, not a fair assessment. The HC decision was not a good one, but Buddy didn't have a lot of options and he went with what he thought was the "safest" choice. It was wrong. He also shouldn't have trusted Gailey's assessment of Fitzpatrick. He has missed on some draft picks, but he has hit on a bunch as well. He has done extremely well (again, in my opinion) in free agency.

 

The jury is still out on Buddy Nix as Bills' GM -- he has had a slow start, but he deserves the benefit of seeing how things progress with the new staff. Comparing the Bills' situation to other "quick turnarounds" in the league (i.e., Seattle) is like apples and oranges. We are tainted by 13 years of mediocrity, but Buddy doesn't deserve to have the first 10 of that saddled to his back.

 

I realize I'm not going to convince anyone of anything with this post, but I wanted to put my thoughts down once and for all, so folks understand where I'm coming from. I'm a homer, and an optimist, but I'm not blind and I don't think everything the Bills do smells like a rose.

 

Go Bills!

[8-8 Forever?]

Both teams trading their busts. Hughes was a big disappointment for the Colts. But, the Bills have more of a need at 34 OLB, especially if Dansby is signed, so yay.

who cares. both these guys are average. so now we have Lawson, Hughes, Moats and the rookie. We will just have to wait and see. In a word: Yawn.

[HankBulloughMellencamp]

John, let's recap what (I believe) happened with the Buffalo Bills since Jauron/Fewell and Levy were relieved of their HC and GM duties, respectively, at the conclusion of the 2009 season:

 

1 -- Ralph hires Buddy Nix to be his GM, bringing back a trusted scout with documented success in SD to help rebuild the franchise

2 -- Buddy has to hire a HC, but top candidates don't want the job; he "settles" on Chan Gailey, who receives recommendations from respected NFL sources like Bill Cowher

3 -- Having hired his HC, Buddy does what any GM would do -- he allows the HC to assemble his staff and determine the direction of the team

4 -- As a GM, Buddy listens to his HC as to the types of players he wants, and directs his scouting department accordingly

5 -- Players are drafted to fit the style Gailey wants

6 -- Gailey's first season (2010) reflects the overall poor talent level on the team, but signs of progress during the 2nd half of the season provide reason for hope

7 -- Quick start to 2011 has many believing the Bills are turning the corner, including the inspired play of Fitzpatrick that leads to a reasonable contract extension for a middle-tier starting QB

8 -- Fitz and entire team slump badly down the stretch in 2011; defense is in shambles leading Gailey to make change at DC to Wannstedt

9 -- In an effort to bolster the defense Nix recruits and signs Mario, something just about everyone thought would be impossible for Nix to accomplish

10 -- Fitz regresses, Gailey shows an inability to manage the team on gamedays, and Wannstedt completely schitts the bed -- resulting in a dreadful 2012 season

11 -- Ralph turns over reigns to Russ, Nix fires Gailey and entire staff, and current rebuilding process begins

12 -- Bills hire HC before other teams with vacancies, leading to presumption they got "their guy" -- 180-degree turnaround from 2009

13 -- Buddy, like any GM, reviews roster with new staff and begins making changes to fit style of Marrone/Pettine

14 -- Here we are

 

eball, thank you for taking the time to put that excellent timeline together. I could not possibly agree with your perspective more.

 

QB-wise, when you consider that Gailey was trying to save his arse last year by playing Fitz down the stretch in lieu of Tarvaris Jackson, we are where we are. To start Jackson would have helped the Bills for the future, but would have been a glaring admission of failure by Chan, and would have essentially guaranteed that he'd soon be walking the plank.

 

And for what it's worth, that phone call to Tampa was quite humerous in how it happened, but I agreed with basically everything Nix said as he chewed the fat with Mark Dominick. The jury is still out on Nix, but I got the sense that he is still very much the guy driving the bus over there. All this talk of him stepping aside for Whaley is pure speculation and perhaps a bit premature.

[Coach Tuesday]

I do think Nix is a buffoon but I am not going to re-hash all of that here. Most of eball's points are rebuttable. For example, Sheppard was drafted to play in a 3-4 that isn't too dissimilar from what Pettine is going to run. He just sucks - he was mis-evaluated as so many of Nix's picks have been. As for the Gailey hire, I refuse to believe he was the only option. Yes they were spurned by the big names. But so what. Dig deeper. I hope the Marrone hire turns out differently but there are already whispers that the fix was in from the get-go and there was no real search done.

 

And my theory behind the Fitz extension is that it was a combination of Nix's poor evaluation skills and the bean counters at OBD. Fitz started strong that year and they thought (incorrectly) that they had a QB who was ascending to the top tier. They rushed to lock him up before he became too expensive. It's not like they thought to themselves, We have the 22nd best QB, time to pay him! Clearly they thought they were getting a good deal. It was stupidity mixed with greed, and we've seen it before.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

I hope the Marrone hire turns out differently but there are already whispers that the fix was in from the get-go and there was no real search done.

 

Where have you heard those whispers?

[Sisyphean Bills]

eball, thank you for taking the time to put that excellent timeline together. I could not possibly agree with your perspective more.

It is certainly a view tailor-made to absolve Buddy Nix at every turn and cast the blame all around him. Unfortunately, Buddy Nix actually was (and is) involved and does make decisions. He says so himself, as do others in the know.

 

QB-wise, when you consider that Gailey was trying to save his arse last year by playing Fitz down the stretch in lieu of Tarvaris Jackson, we are where we are. To start Jackson would have helped the Bills for the future, but would have been a glaring admission of failure by Chan, and would have essentially guaranteed that he'd soon be walking the plank.

Gailey was trying to save his job? How did that work for him again? Marrying himself to Fitzpatrick was not about saving his job, it was just the latest example of Gailey sticking with a QB that wasn't good enough. What was that line Buddy and Chan always used? "If you've seen him do it before, there is a good chance he'll do it again." Self observation?

 

And for what it's worth, that phone call to Tampa was quite humerous in how it happened, but I agreed with basically everything Nix said as he chewed the fat with Mark Dominick. The jury is still out on Nix, but I got the sense that he is still very much the guy driving the bus over there. All this talk of him stepping aside for Whaley is pure speculation and perhaps a bit premature.

Maybe it is premature, but Buddy started this job post-retirement age and because he didn't like golf. He's not getting younger. He better have a plan in place to develop his successor and have him ready to take the reigns soon, or it is just a black mark on a resume that, so far, has been unimpressive.

[Storm Front]

Great post, eBall! I would say that the reason Sheppard was drafted was because Gailey wanted him, so Nix drafted him. I also think Sheppard will turn out to be a good player for the Colts.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

As far as eball's timeline (and I think it's a bit generous but also has some merit), we can add that Nix inherited Tom Modrak and has since completely revamped the personnel department.

 

There are now only a few holdover scouts from when Nix originally took over.

[HankBulloughMellencamp]

I hope the Marrone hire turns out differently but there are already whispers that the fix was in from the get-go and there was no real search done.

 

And my theory behind the Fitz extension is that it was a combination of Nix's poor evaluation skills and the bean counters at OBD. Fitz started strong that year and they thought (incorrectly) that they had a QB who was ascending to the top tier. They rushed to lock him up before he became too expensive. It's not like they thought to themselves, We have the 22nd best QB, time to pay him! Clearly they thought they were getting a good deal. It was stupidity mixed with greed, and we've seen it before.

 

Where in the world is that coming from? The fact is, several other teams wanted Marrone before we grabbed him, the guy has a stamp of approval from Sean Payton, Bill Parcells, Herm Edwards ... basically anyone who has worked with him. And Bill Polian had him #1 in his potential head coach candidate que.

 

And your explanation of how they came to decide to extend Fitz is laughable, and hardly refutes any of eballs points. He got paid quite handsomely for the year and a half he played under it, but was basically rewarded with market value for a QB of his ilk/stats if you look at it over the time he was named "the guy" by Gailey. Everyone talks about how much the Fitz extension was worth over the life of it (59 mil or whatever), but no one talks about the relatively painless out that was built into it, which they exercised.

 

I give Nix credit for that. Ask Philly if they wish they had that kind of protection built into their Mike Vick deal.

 

But OK, I get it, you think Nix is a bum.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Marrying himself to Fitzpatrick was not about saving his job, it was just the latest example of Gailey sticking with a QB that wasn't good enough.

 

Maybe it is premature, but Buddy started this job post-retirement age and because he didn't like golf. He's not getting younger. He better have a plan in place to develop his successor and have him ready to take the reigns soon, or it is just a black mark on a resume that, so far, has been unimpressive.

 

My theory on Gailey is that he had a very narrow comfort zone for working with people. He was very risk averse and needed to feel a high comfort level with people and that many of his personnel decisions were made too largely on that basis.

 

As far as Buddy, I think he is developing his successor.

 

Great post, eBall! I would say that the reason Sheppard was drafted was because Gailey wanted him, so Nix drafted him. I also think Sheppard will turn out to be a good player for the Colts.

 

I'd be very surprised if Sheppard amounts to anything in the NFL.

 

JMO.

[mrags]

Just - again, this one bothers me. I guess kudos to Nix for realizing he made a mistake but let's not forget how we got here. They let Poz walk in part because they were switching schemes and in part because they were fairly confident they could replace him with a draft pick. Then they burn a 3rd round pick on Shephard after Gailey spent the Senior Bowl with him, and we were told amazing tales of his leadership, instincts, and fit. Two years later we're dealing him for a bust, and we have no replacement for him on the roster. I get it that they've changed schemes (again), but that doesn't fully answer the question to me, esp. because Pettine prefers a hybrid front. How many mistakes is this group of talent evaluators going to be allowed to make? They keep "fixing" the problems that they created and the result is the perpetual running in place that we've all seen.

 

I just don't get why anyone is happy about this move. The same group of clowns who drafted this guy is now sending him packing.

 

3rd round picks under Nix: Carrington, Shephard, TJ Graham. Goodwin is on notice...

say whatever you want but Shephard was a starter. Wasnt great or even good but he sure wasnt Aaron Maybin.

 

Graham produced about what he should have for a 3rd rounder.

 

Carrington would probably be starting on a team that Didnt have Mario, Williams and Dareus on their DLine. And quite honestly, he's been absolutely great on Special Teams as a FG Blocker. He's probably got the most in a season with what he did last year.

 

You are in notice.

[HankBulloughMellencamp]

I also think Sheppard will turn out to be a good player for the Colts.

 

Can I ask, specifically, what have you seen from Sheppard that makes you think he will be anything at all for Indy?

 

Were you simply not paying attention when he was starting for more than a year & making no significant plays? His tackle totals are downright abysmal for a MLB worth his salt, and I never saw him shed a block and make a play. And I do realize they took him out on 3rd downs for Bryan Scott ... please tell me how "we'd better pull that guy off the field on 3rd downs'' can be considered a good thing?

 

I am confident that our defense will be much improved under Pettine, who unlike Wannstache, has proven that he knows what he is doing in this NFL day and age. And you will not miss Sheppard ... a used kicking net would have been sufficient in return. I do not think he would have made Marrone's 2013 final roster.

[eball]

It is certainly a view tailor-made to absolve Buddy Nix at every turn and cast the blame all around him. Unfortunately, Buddy Nix actually was (and is) involved and does make decisions. He says so himself, as do others in the know.

 

I guess you believe a GM is responsible for coaching the team? I've never disputed that draft picks can and should be evaluated -- but doing so after a year or two is generally premature.

[Sisyphean Bills]

My theory on Gailey is that he had a very narrow comfort zone for working with people. He was very risk averse and needed to feel a high comfort level with people and that many of his personnel decisions were made too largely on that basis.

It goes beyond Gailey. Buddy Nix came in and spelled out his vision of building via the draft, etc. He started as a very conservative GM and hired an old school coach.

 

As to the argument (not yours) that "nobody's perfect" and "hindsight being 20/20", one can go back through my posting history and see that I have compared the Gailey/Nix regime to the Carroll/Schneider and Shanahan/Allen all along because there is no ambiguity as to working against different competition in different eras of the NFL. 1 of the 3 of those pairings failed with the head coach being fired and is no more. The other 2 were far more aggressive in general, continue to make moves for the team overall and especially the QB position, and made the playoffs and have energized their fans. People jump right to the "yeah, but they have a QB" line without even mentioning or acknowledging that it was the aggressive make-up of those front-offices that got the QBs there in the first place.

 

As far as Buddy, I think he is developing his successor.

Agreed. Especially in light that he said so himself.

 

I guess you believe a GM is responsible for coaching the team? I've never disputed that draft picks can and should be evaluated -- but doing so after a year or two is generally premature.

Straw-man. I never said that.

[Doc]

Sheppard is apparently pissed at being traded.

[eball]

Straw-man. I never said that.

 

Not in so many words, but the Nix detractors consistently throw out the W-L record as evidence of the poor job he's doing. I attribute that more to coaching. Just my opinion.

[Sisyphean Bills]

Not in so many words, but the Nix detractors consistently throw out the W-L record as evidence of the poor job he's doing. I attribute that more to coaching. Just my opinion.

I believe you are entitled to your opinion and thank you for sharing it with other Bills fans. We just don't agree. I see Nix as involved and actively engaged in the direction of this team the last 3 years. He owns a piece of it, good and bad.

[Max Fischer]

Sheppard is apparently pissed at being traded.

 

Too bad he didn't display that same intensity the past few years. Granted, KS might have been a victim of bad coaching and not fitting the current scheme, but he must shoulder the blame for his apparent cluelessness on the field.