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Rd 1, Pick #16: QB EJ Manuel - Florida St.


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Manuel’s numbers tell story

 

Posted by Chris Brown on April 30, 2013 – 12:47 pm

 

While the world of draftniks panned the Bills pick of EJ Manuel as being far too early, Bills GM Buddy Nix and his scouting staff had all the proof they need, and if outside observers didn’t have the time to do all the travel, interviewing, tape watching, research and background checks then all you need to do is look at the numbers.

 

ESPN.com put together a

comprehensive set of figures related to Manuel’s playand checked how it compared to the rest of the quarterbacks in the draft class. Here are just a couple of examples that should get Bills fans excited.

 

He can throw the football vertically down the field

Manuel improved his completion percentage on passes of 20 yards or longer in his junior and senior seasons. In 2012, Manuel completed 49.2 percent of his passes of 20 yards or longer, the highest completion percentage of any of Scouts Inc.’s top six quarterback prospects.

 

 

He can get himself out of trouble

In 2012, Manuel completed 55.8 percent of his passes when under duress, a higher completion percentage than Geno Smith (49.3), Matt Barkley (49.3) and Landry Jones (37.1).

 

These are two big areas where the quarterback play had been lacking, plays under pressure and deep throws. Add in that Manuel’s completion percentage actually went up last year when he threw from outside the pocket (66.8 to 70%) and add in his 81% figure for passes on target and you can see why the Bills saw him as the best quarterback in the draft.

 

I like this part:

 

"In his last three seasons, 81 percent of his passes were on target (passes that were not overthrown, underthrown or wide of his receiver), comparable numbers to Smith (83.4) and Barkley (80.3)."

 

Considering Smith threw >20% of his passes at or behind the line of scrimmage, and accuracy is considered to be Barkley's main strength, these numbers bode well.

 

But Todd McShay said he's inaccurate.

 

So did Charley Casserly.

 

And so are a lot of uninformed people who just parrot what they hear on TV.

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Judging by the laughs I've heard from Patriots fans this morning, I'd say our AFC East foes are thrilled with this pick. Really.

Pats fans? :lol:

 

I've been reading/on their boards for years. They are not even close to this one in terms of football acumen. They spend all of their time on easy targets(they love to start year-long "Jets Suck" threads), and none of their time explaining why they've drafted 10 DBs in the last 5 years with 1.5 starters to show for it.

 

Imagine, for a second, what this board would be like today, had we done that. :wacko:

 

From what I've seen: the average Pat's fan approaches football the same way your wife/girlfriend approaches TMZ. I can't blame them too much though, it has to be difficult wading through the ESPN et al manufactured hype-->click traffic nonsense and try to stay focused on what matters: the actual game itself.

 

The other problem: Tom Brady makes it impossible for Pats fans to view football objectively. Ask them how it's possible the "defensive genius" has drafted and failed on all those DBs, or, why his D can't get off the field in big games, or, why they haven't made a running game a priority, or fixed their awful O line, so that Brady doesn't have to be perfect every time(see: last year's AFCCG)?

 

Their universal response? Tom Brady is God, and so is Bill Belechik. Remeber all the big Pats FA signings last year? Remember him then cutting all those FAs? Pats fans don't either.

 

They have no opinion, because they don't even know about their biggest ?s coming into this year. But, ask them about the latest thing Giselle said to Tom? They can post you a link in 5 seconds flat.

 

I say again: Pats fans? :lol:

ESPN is all about style over substance. If you don't play their game, you lose air time and eventually are looking for employment. I detest ESPN.

This is why you don't see Jaworski anywhere near as much is you should.

 

It's also why they haven't canned Jaworski, as they have to have at least 1 guy who can actually deliver some quality content.

Clicking on the link in the above ESPN article it even gets better. For those who think stats tell a lot of the story.

I am starting to wonder if the new "analytics" department had anything to do with manuel. :lol: (Um...that is a joke.)

 

However, analytics department or not, I am sure that these stats were on hand at OBD, long before ESPN compiled theirs.

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4/30 John Murphy interview with Darnell Moore: Murph interviews EJ Manuel's former HS coach Darnell Moore

 

http://itmpodcasttra...wnloadlink=true

 

Good listen. Thanks. A few things were interesting to me:

 

-EJ started hanging out with the high school team informally when he was in 8th grade and Coach Moore said he would have started him that year if it were legal.

 

-Coach Moore took a very long-term, developmental approach with EJ from the start. Said he thought he was NFL material right away (14 years old) and used to talk to EJ about "the big picture" and what he needed to do to get there.

 

-In line with that developmental approach, Coach Moore refused to let him run the option his freshman and sophomore years (he started all four years), because he wanted him to solidify his pocket mechanics and didn't want him racially stereotyped as just an "athletic" running QB. Took some heat for this decision from people who said he kept the reins too tight on EJ's play those first two years.

 

Anyway, thoughtful guy, and intriguing to hear some deep background on EJ.

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This is a great listen for those that haven't heard it yet and it makes an absolute ton of sense. This new leadership took an approach to the draft and are taking an approach to the game that we haven't seen. They're actually doing some analytical work. I like it.

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wow, you and i posted at just about the exact same time...i put it in it's own thread, as i felt it was worthy of it...what an awesome video..

Great minds think alike. I agree that it deserved its own thread.
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I was just watching clips from FSU against Maryland and Clemson.

 

What struck me about Manuel was how accurate he was on screens, swing passes, and other short routes. Guys were getting the ball on their hands in stride.

 

Imagine what our screen and short-passing game is going to look like now that we have a guy who can deliver the ball in stride to, say, CJ Spiller, Fred Jackson, and Marquise Goodwin!!!

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Not sure if this has been posted in the first 34 pages of this thread but anyone else watch Manuel on Grudens QB Camp?

 

I thought he was great on it but there was one little thing that stood out to me.

 

When Gruden was giving EJ his opinions of what he needed to work on, you could see EJ taking notes.

 

I'm not sure if all the other QB's on his show did that but it showed me that he really wants to learn and is willing to take constructive critisism.

 

CBF

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After watching some youtube game film, not much flash to his game. Reminds me of some of those old school hoops players who were smooth in their movements and didn't look particularly quick until they went by you. Surprised how strong his arm was for a guy who doesn't step/hop into his passes. For him to be as successful as we want him to be, think he's gonna have to dial up the intensity. Playing that under control worked when he was way more talented than the competition, but from the 5-6 games I watched he left you wanting more. Hope he's got it in him.

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I was just watching clips from FSU against Maryland and Clemson.

After watching some youtube game film... Surprised how strong his arm was for a guy who doesn't step/hop into his passes.

 

Just watched a few of the same videos and my main impression was "Wow! That O-Line was horrible!". Tough to get a real feel for what he can do, and Im surprised his accuracy stats are as good as they are after seeing that. Definitely has an arm though.

 

 

Hi all. Here's my video interview of EJ Manual at The 2013 NFL Draft. It's almost 7 minutes long:

 

Cool vid! Thanks for posting!

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Just watched the Clemson game, and thought you guys should check this out. Starting at 5:45 in the video, EJ just tossed a TD to bring the Noles to 3 points down, 31-28. Noles get the ball back, and this is the go-ahead drive that EJ orchestrates. BEAUTIFUL pass for the go-ahead TD.

 

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Just watched the Clemson game, and thought you guys should check this out. Starting at 5:45 in the video, EJ just tossed a TD to bring the Noles to 3 points down, 31-28. Noles get the ball back, and this is the go-ahead drive that EJ orchestrates. BEAUTIFUL pass for the go-ahead TD.

 

 

Nice timing, anticipation, and touch on the TD throw. :worthy: Well done by EJ3.

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Don't know if "we" like Clark Judge or not, but this is a good read: Linky

 

Makes so much more sense to compare the Bills' decision to draft EJ3 to what the Ravens did when they took Flacco with a "reach" pick, than it does to make the ridiculous Losman comparisons.

 

Of course, those who preach the "Nix is a buffoon" mantra will categorically reject the notion Buffalo's front office dare be mentioned in the same breath as Baltimore's.

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