Rd 1, Pick #16: QB EJ Manuel - Florida St.

[NoSaint]

All anyone has to do to make it inarguable that you do not know if Manuel will fail or become a star, whether this was a brilliant or a criminally terrible move, is to stand in front of a mirror with a list of the last 20 quarterbacks taken in the top two rounds and simply be honest with yourself about what you thought they would do as pros.

 

As far as i can tell: besides injury, They took a guy who has only one excuse not to succeed - team mismanagement. If they teach him the game, and build the right offense he should succeed. He has every last physical trait, seems to have the intangibles....he needs someone to help him reach his potential. It's a make or break kind of pick for a young offensive minded coach.

[run dat back]

Two conflicting thoughts in my mind:

 

1. They were right on Spiller, although they didn't need him.

 

2. They missed badly on picking Graham over Wilson.

 

So until this guy becomes at least above-average starter, the weight of evidence makes the pick questionable at best, and a lot of that is because of the high position they took him at.

[Ramius]

Has anybody actually watched EJ play or talk to a die hard FSU fan that goes to games? Anybody watch the Florida game or the NCst game when EJ flopped in the biggest moments?

 

EJ is a guy who has it all except the ability to take over a game and win it. At FSU he played with 10 times the talent that Cam played with at Auburn on offense AND defense. But when the game fell on his shoulders to make a play and win a game he couldn't.

 

I don't care about his arm, size or speed. I care about the big moments and he was the leader of a team that was the biggest disappointment in CFB last year. He is a perfect Bills pick because there is enough there to get people excited but at the end will wind up not panning out.

 

Check out the ND bowl game from 2011 and the Clemson game from 2012 and tell me EJ can't take over a game. There was also the game winning drives against VT this year, i could go on and on.

 

There's no guarantee that he'll develop into a superstar, but he's shown serious flashes of brilliance. Most of what you've said is patently false.

[Ramius]

I'm cool with this pick and the moves to get him for now. I haven't seen too much of him, but on paper he has all the main qualities I look for in a QB (ie. leader, athletic, non-statue). I've read here that he doesn't have any 'signature wins' but I don't believe he has folded at crunch time at the end of big games either (ala Mallett). I'm looking forward to watching him play, and hope he does not become EJ Losman (because then he will have to leave).

 

EJ's record in "big" games:

 

4-0 bowl games

1-1 ACC Championships

2-0 vs Clemson

1-1 vs Florida

1-1 vs VT

0-1 vs Okla

 

But the others are right, EJ has never won a big game.

[Jkgobills]

On film, Geno Smith reminds me of Aaron Rodgers. Able to read defenses per snap, move in the pocket and throw with accuracy, strong arm, and when he runs he is fast and effective. Similar round 1 draft experiences as well.

 

Watching film on EJ Manuel he reminds me of Vince Young coming out of college. In the Florida State offense it was often a case of pull it down and run if the first or second option was not open. This was what the Jimbo Fisher offense called on EJ to do. Very little time spent in a pocket and having to adjust in the pocket and keep eyes down field.

 

The difference between Vince Young and EJ Manuel is that EJ is intelligent and without character issues. We may have drafted a QB with the god given physical talents of Vince Young, but with the intelligence and character to learn the position and be a tremendous QB. How good could Vince Young been, had he been coachable?

 

For the record, I would have greatly preferred Geno Smith. Now we get to see him twice a year with the Jets. Hope our pick works out well, and EJ Manuel turns into a premier QB!

 

Go Bills!

 

 

[K D]

EJ vs Geno twice a year now. I hope we picked the right guy!

[John Cocktosten]

Check out the ND bowl game from 2011 and the Clemson game from 2012 and tell me EJ can't take over a game. There was also the game winning drives against VT this year, i could go on and on.

 

There's no guarantee that he'll develop into a superstar, but he's shown serious flashes of brilliance. Most of what you've said is patently false.

 

The same Clemson team that gave up 70 to Gino and WVU? Clemson is perennially the worst defense in the ACC.

 

He did play well in the ND bowl game but that ND team wasn't the team we saw last year. They were a mediocre 4 loss team who had 4 freshman starting on the d line and Touchdown Tommy at QB. He played well though but not great.

 

It sounds like you're a FSU fan. Tell me how he played against UF in the biggest game of his career? Tell me why he couldn't put his team on his back for one drive vs NCst and win that game. Every FSU fan that I know has pride that he was picked that high but think it's laughable. He was the sole reason why you weren't playing for a championship this year and any real fan knows that.

[Ramius]

The same Clemson team that gave up 70 to Gino and WVU? Clemson is perennially the worst defense in the ACC.

 

He did play well in the ND bowl game but that ND team wasn't the team we saw last year. They were a mediocre 4 loss team who had 4 freshman starting on the d line and Touchdown Tommy at QB. He played well though but not great.

 

It sounds like you're a FSU fan. Tell me how he played against UF in the biggest game of his career? Tell me why he couldn't put his team on his back for one drive vs NCst and win that game. Every FSU fan that I know has pride that he was picked that high but think it's laughable. He was the sole reason why you weren't playing for a championship this year and any real fan knows that.

 

I'm not going to continue to engage you, because done nothing but find ridiculous excuses to discredit every single game EJ and the Noles have won. When you go that out of your way to do so, it shows you aren't interested in debating, you're simply insistent on trying to prove you're right, to the point to making up falsehoods and tossing out data points that don't fit your argument.

[Mr. WEO]

I don't know how many times the same thing must be said, so may as well say it again.

 

Everyone agrees that this QB draft is very weak. So if the Bills or another team were going to pick a QB, may as well go for the one with the highest ceiling. I think there's very little disagreement among almost all the pundits - that despite his flaws, EJ has the highest ceiling of the whole crew.

 

So then the question is - where do you take him? His basic talent argues for rounds 2-3. But that's not how game theory plays out, because there are other teams who have QB needs and if he was truly Bills' #1 pick, then there is too much to risk to wait until #41. Although the other QBs are all bunched up in the early 2nd round slots, there probably isn't that much differentiating those guys from Kolb or Tarvaris. So why would you waste a draft pick on something you already have?

 

Drafting EJ at #16 made a lot of sense for a QB starved team that is willing to invest the time in him. Rolling the dice that the guy you really want will be there for your next pick is exactly how Bills missed out on Kaepernick & Wilson.

 

You have that backwards. Many argue that Manuel was a reach at 16. The Bills reached (around Wilson) to pick Graham. Nix thought Wilson was too short anyway.

 

Jax and Philly have picked 3 times each. None has taken any of the several QBs left. I still think the Bills could have gotten Eifert at 16, Manuel at 41, Woods at 46 (despite what the Eagles fans sites say).

 

Anyway, if Kolb ends up on IR, it will get interesting here.....

[Dorkington]

I suspect Geno will be better, but I'm totally fine with getting one of these. We need to take a chance, so hopefully it works out. It's really all a crap shoot.

[aussiew]

I like him.

[GG]

You have that backwards. Many argue that Manuel was a reach at 16. The Bills reached (around Wilson) to pick Graham. Nix thought Wilson was too short anyway.

 

Jax and Philly have picked 3 times each. None has taken any of the several QBs left. I still think the Bills could have gotten Eifert at 16, Manuel at 41, Woods at 46 (despite what the Eagles fans sites say).

 

Anyway, if Kolb ends up on IR, it will get interesting here.....

 

It's an easy prediction in hindsight. I noticed you didn't type this last night when you didn't know how teams would pick tonight.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

EJ was my favorite QB in this class by far.

 

To trade down and pick up two extra picks and get EJ exceeds my expectations for the first round.

 

I'm very happy right now.

 

Besides now we have the J-team on offense - EJ throwing to TJ and handing off to CJ

 

I don't know what to think. Part of me thinks this is the Bills trying to be smarter than everybody else, since the draft pundits had him as like the 7th rated QB.

Part of me thinks they didn't like any of the more polished/publicized guys, maybe they see it as OK, we see their ceiling but this guy has a shot at a higher ceiling.

When I hear Nix opining about how there are 2-3 QB who can be franchise players in the NFL, part of me hears him saying Ryan Fitzpatrick can be a starter for a long time in the league.

[boyst]

When I hear Nix opining about how there are 2-3 QB who can be franchise players in the NFL, part of me hears him saying Ryan Fitzpatrick can be a starter for a long time in the league.

On the 2011 and 2012 Buffalo Bills, he could be. And going through those season, as we all did. Well, they sure did feel like a long time.

 

 

And, I still click on this thread just to see the first reply made by ME...

[billstolast]

With only 2 qbs in 1st three rounds, it looks like if bills "waited" like most are saying they should have, we may have missed on ej

[filthymcnasty08]

hmm...

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

Not really following.

 

Makes me think we could have gotten Manuel in the 3rd round.

[poo]

NIx said in the interview posted to Buffalobills.com that they had a chance to trade down from 16 but passed on it to be sure they got EJ. No specification as to who the trade was to be with or what the bills would have received in return for the 16th pick.

[FleaMoulds80]

We could've traded back a bit further probably and taken him at the end of the 1st round and gathered up more picks. This was a boneheaded pick if you ask me. This guy's not even ready to start day 1 and had other needs that could've contributed in his first year.

 

49ers were right there willing to trade up for Eric Reid and could've been an ideal trade partner. Drafting Manuel near the end of the 1st round wouldn't have been as bad.

 

NIx said in the interview posted to Buffalobills.com that they had a chance to trade down from 16 but passed on it to be sure they got EJ. No specification as to who the trade was to be with or what the bills would have received in return for the 16th pick.

 

That was a panic move if I ever saw one. Don't think any team would've traded back into the 1st for EJ Manuel. Just didn't see it happening.

[Billsguy]

We could've traded back a bit further probably and taken him at the end of the 1st round and gathered up more picks. This was a boneheaded pick if you ask me. This guy's not even ready to start day 1 and had other needs that could've contributed in his first year.

 

49ers were right there willing to trade up for Eric Reid and could've been an ideal trade partner. Drafting Manuel near the end of the 1st round wouldn't have been as bad.

 

 

 

That was a panic move if I ever saw one. Don't think any team would've traded back into the 1st for EJ Manuel. Just didn't see it happening.

 

It was clearly a panic move. Last year Buddy blew it by not selecting a QB and this year he was desperate. They picked a couple players a round too early. The draft is not just about selecting players, but managing where and when you select them. How soon will Nix be leaving?