offsides#76FredSmerlas Posted April 25, 2013 Posted April 25, 2013 (edited) I think the wind angle gets over played too. Take a look at last years home games. This is right from accuweather - KC game Sept 16th - 69 degrees -0- precipitation - 8mph winds New England Sept 30th - 59 degrees -0- precipitation - 5mph winds Tenn Oct 21 - 55 degrees -0- precip - 19mph winds Miami - Nov 15th - 38 degrees -0- precip - 4mph winds Jacksonville - Dec 2nd - 50 degrees -0- precipitation - 10mph winds Rams - Dec 9th - 39 degrees -trace of precipitation- 11mph winds Jets - Dec 30th - 29 degrees - -0- precip[itation - 14 mph winds This home schedule was back loaded as ever I could remember. The weather was not bad. I am quite sure Barkley could throw in 10-15 mph winds. If he couldn't he wouldn't be on any teams board. I am not an expert but I have heard to many QB's talk about the windy cold conditions causing them a problem in Buffalo to simply say that it is not an issue. I have also heard several people "who should know what they are talking about discuss this very problem, Here are a few that I have read most recently. ESPN’s Mel Kiper on Barkley: “He doesn’t have a great arm. But he’s got good enough arm strength in the right situation, which wouldn’t be Buffalo. It certainly wouldn’t be a cold-weather environment.” College scout Matt Hand: I see how they operate their offense, if they’re making checks, changing it up. Then I look at arm strength. I think that’s a huge thing in Buffalo, for obvious reasons. If you don’t have a strong arm, and you’ve got some wobble in your ball, it’s very hard to play here.” College scout Tom Roth: “The first thing that jumps out is arm strength. Can he make all the throws? Arm strength, decision-making, and the big thing is turnovers. It might not be the end all, be all asset in a quarterback, but as far as the Bills talent evaluators are concerned if they do draft a quarterback it would appear that arm strength is a priority. Doug Whaley: You have to put stock into it because it’s going to come into play and one of the main attributes are toughness and arm strength and we’d like to use that weather to our advantage. Earlier in the chat Whaley was asked what qualities he and Buddy Nix look for in a quarterback. Again Whaley mentioned the arm with his response. Doug Whaley: You have to have a guy with a presence, arm strength, accuracy and an ability to make people around him better. Quite a lot of talk about arm strength; I would think this means it's a highly important asset, especially when you play in Buffalo. Edited April 25, 2013 by offsides#76FredSmerlas
Kelly the Dog Posted April 25, 2013 Posted April 25, 2013 In the final four games of 2012, and against defenses that ranked in sequence 5th, 14th, 7th, and 11th, Ponder completed 60.6 percent of his passes (6.3 ypa) with 4 TDs and 1 INT. He also ran for a score. His rating over those four games was 88.4. The Vikings won all of those games (against the 10-6 Bears, the 12-4 Texans, the 7-9 Rams, and the 11-5 Packers). I think many people have jumped to conclusions about Ponder without parsing the evidence. It is the case that players can improve over time. And think you have been a little too stat happy lately, my good friend. He has played decent "game management" style QB at times, including the streak you just mentioned. But he's not a great QB, and not a franchise guy at all, IMO. That is the best you can get with a guy like that, a 4 game streak of decent game management wins.
Prickly Pete Posted April 25, 2013 Posted April 25, 2013 As far as I'm concerned, there are seven rounds and a bunch of UDFA's - and that's a lot of players overlooked by a lot of people. You hear so much talk about why the Bills should NOT take a QB in RD 1 - because, they say, the quality does not match the value, and if you miss on a QB in round 1, or a player in the top 10, regardless of position, you put your team back years. I ask this: if you take a QB in RD 1 and miss on him, but your 4th rounder turns into a pro-bowler, isn't that sort of a wash? What if your other picks are great, and you end up with 5 starters out of a particular draft, with a few pro-bowlers - does that mean that you set your team back years because you missed on the first pick? The answer is NO. If you look at GM's around the league, the average starters gained from a draft is about 3, and if you get one pro-bowler per draft (about where Ozzie Newsome is) then you're considered a good GM, if not very good. Now, it doesn't matter which round those players come from. That is something that is lost in the chatter, I think. Anyway, that is how I look at drafts. There are good enough players in every draft - and this one especially - where the Bills could be picking starters into the 4th round, and if they do their homework, and if everyone is on the same page, and they know what they're doing, they could find starters beyond that, as well. That is my biggest fear coming into this draft - not that Buffalo misses on any one pick, but that Marrone, Pettine, Nix, and Whaley are not on the same page, not united in their vision. Nothing could throw a wrench into our hopes for this season more than that, I think. Well put.
dave mcbride Posted April 25, 2013 Author Posted April 25, 2013 (edited) And think you have been a little too stat happy lately, my good friend. He has played decent "game management" style QB at times, including the streak you just mentioned. But he's not a great QB, and not a franchise guy at all, IMO. That is the best you can get with a guy like that, a 4 game streak of decent game management wins. Someone has to be stat happy here and stand up against the wave of comments along the lines of "his arm didn't look strong in that Washington State game"! I know I'll take some heat for it (maybe deservedly so in some cases), but so be it. Edited April 25, 2013 by dave mcbride
Orton's Arm Posted April 25, 2013 Posted April 25, 2013 (edited) Excellent post, although I think the impulse behind is that you want to change your name to Barkley's arm. Guilty as charged. I'm tired of being stuck with a name like Edwards' Arm! One reason I've kept it for so long is because I feel that if the Bills have the misfortune of not having a real QB, I should have the misfortune of not having a real screen name. The Bills could solve both problems later tonight! Except Ponder is mediocre, Viking fans seem to already have given up on him even though he played decently at times, and if we had him we wouldn't be any closer to replacing Kelly than we are now with Kevin Kolb. It's not about picking a QB high, it's about picking the right QB or signing the right QB FA. Making more choices high gives you a better chance at it for sure, and we should have spent more high picks on QBs in our history. Most of the QBs that are drafted suck though, or at best are decent players but not Super Bowl winners. I agree that Ponder has thus far been mediocre; though he appeared to improve during the last four games of this past season. The point I was making with Ponder is that a QB who in the past might have gone late first/early second will now be off the boards early. If the Bills want that particular QB, they need to either take him early or not take him at all. The bolded statement is irrelevant because nobody can predict the future. All one can do is select a course of action based on present knowledge... and based on present knowledge, Nassib and Barkley are late first round / early second round prospects with potential (not certain) upside to become franchise QBs. Reaching on them would be a waste of resources, plain and simple. And I'm tired of hearing "If they like him then take him" -- so are you saying that you trust the instincts of the same front office that paid Ryan Fitzpatrick like a franchise quarterback? Please. Exactly correct. > All one can do is select a course of action based on present knowledge... Agreed. > and based on present knowledge, Nassib and Barkley are late first round / early second round prospects > with potential (not certain) upside to become franchise QBs. Not convinced. Had Barkley come out after his junior year, he would have been long gone by 8th overall. So he didn't produce the same statistics in his senior year as he had as a junior. He was playing behind a nonexistent OL. It's hard to look like Joe Montana when you have no offensive line whatsoever. If he was an accurate QB, with great intangibles and a decent set of physical tools after his junior year, how did he suddenly become completely unworthy of the 8th overall pick after his senior season? Edited April 25, 2013 by Edwards' Arm
Dawgg Posted April 25, 2013 Posted April 25, 2013 If he was an accurate QB, with great intangibles and a decent set of physical tools after his junior year, how did he suddenly become completely unworthy of the 8th overall pick after his senior season? No disagreement there. Right or wrong, that is what the market bears for Barkley this year and the Bills should adjust accordingly.
dave mcbride Posted April 26, 2013 Author Posted April 26, 2013 Right. I am virtually certain there will be a deal of some kind. What concerns me is that the Bills will take the QB in order to "sell hope" as they usually do. Nobody will criticize them for doing it and the regime will get an automatic 3-year pass for doing so. Moreover, Russ Brandon's marketing machine will have new jerseys and a pretty face to sell to the fans. If their goal is to truly build a championship roster, they simply would not take one of those QBs at #8 and the front office will go to the earth's end to find a way to get him later in the first. I'm with you on that! They pulled it off, dawgg. Credit where credit is due!
Dawgg Posted April 26, 2013 Posted April 26, 2013 They pulled it off, dawgg. Credit where credit is due! Very happy my friend. This is what smart franchises do. Even if they miss out on "their"guy, the extra picks are adequate compensation for that risk.
San Jose Bills Fan Posted April 26, 2013 Posted April 26, 2013 Calm the @%#* down! Your act is growing very weary. He's been on ignore for a while now. With posters like him I'm always reminded of source-sink dynamics. Some people add value and others reduce value. Put differently, some people make this board better. Others make it worse.
offsides#76FredSmerlas Posted April 26, 2013 Posted April 26, 2013 Here's the truth,: I do like Manuel but I am no expert, as nor are you! I have also coached high school football but that doesn't make me an expert. If they go with Barkley I will have no problem with it because I would assume they know more than I do. I responded back at you because you seem to enjoy mocking others comments like you are the guru of football knowledge. I think you have a big EGO and no one really cares to hear from people like that. We all have opinions and that's what being a fan is all about but you like to make personal attacks which made me want to put you in your place a little bit. nuff said! Kelly83TD I guess I wanted the same guy the BILLS wanted. Sorry, we didn't draft Barkley. lol So much for all your trash talking and knowledge.
MDH Posted April 26, 2013 Posted April 26, 2013 If he was an accurate QB, with great intangibles and a decent set of physical tools after his junior year, how did he suddenly become completely unworthy of the 8th overall pick after his senior season? He didn't suddenly become these things, it's just they now have more game film to evaluate him by. If he had come out last year my bet is he would have been one of those QBs who were "misses" in the top 10. They happen every year. The extra evaluation of this year gives them a more accurate view of his abilities and faults. The other thing that hurt him was the shoulder injury in the UCLA game. He hasn't played a snap since that injury to reassure teams that his already questionable arm isn't even worse. He didn't do himself any favors on his pro day either...
Sisyphean Bills Posted April 26, 2013 Posted April 26, 2013 Guilty as charged. I'm tired of being stuck with a name like Edwards' Arm! One reason I've kept it for so long is because I feel that if the Bills have the misfortune of not having a real QB, I should have the misfortune of not having a real screen name. The Bills could solve both problems later tonight! Well, Manuel Arm has a certain punny ring to it.
Orton's Arm Posted April 26, 2013 Posted April 26, 2013 Well, Manuel Arm has a certain punny ring to it. Not going to happen. I disagree with the Manuel pick for many of the same reasons I disagreed with the Losman pick.
Chandler#81 Posted April 26, 2013 Posted April 26, 2013 He's been on ignore for a while now. With posters like him I'm always reminded of source-sink dynamics. Some people add value and others reduce value. Put differently, some people make this board better. Others make it worse. Kelly83TD I guess I wanted the same guy the BILLS wanted. Sorry, we didn't draft Barkley. lol So much for all your trash talking and knowledge. I'm sure he'd rebutt if he could... He didn't make the 'Team Flight' to the Draft. Upper body injury, I'm told..
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