26CornerBlitz Posted April 25, 2013 Posted April 25, 2013 (edited) I'm with you on this, but for different reasons. I just don't think the Bills are capable of executing a deal like this. Donahoe was a dealmaker, but since his departure, our front office has shown that it's more about squandering picks and desperately trading up for "their guy" than staying patient, assigning appropriate values to players and moving down when necessary.If Tavon Austin is still on the board, a deal will be there for the taking... will the Bills take it? I have no faith in a Buddy led OBD FO and would be pleasantly surprised (downright ecstatic in fact) if they could pull off such maneuvering. Edited April 25, 2013 by 26CornerBlitz
Dawgg Posted April 25, 2013 Posted April 25, 2013 I think they're spooked by the Jets. The Jets are going to take a QB at some point. They can't continue with Sanchez. It's not a matter of if but when, and they have a number of picks. I really think the Jets are bluffing with QB, trying to bait the Bills into reaching on Nassib. Their worst case scenario would be a Bills' trade down, allowing someone else to get their hands on Tavon Austin. Not to mention, because Rex Ryan is a lame duck coach, not sure they'd spend a 1st on a QB at this point in time.
dave mcbride Posted April 25, 2013 Author Posted April 25, 2013 Exactly - that's the whole point. Of course the Ravens were taking a risk, but they also got paid to take the risk in the form of 3 extra picks, which gave them the flexibility and currency they needed to move up and down the draft. If the Bills take the calculated risk and trade down and miss out on Nassib because some other team reached for him in the teens (unlikely to happen), they have a backup plan in place. They are high on Barkley and can take him. They can pick 2 starters at other positions and grab a QB in the 3rd. Bottom line: overdrafting Nassib or Barkley at #8 would be a mistake. Perhaps they will turn out to be championship QBs, in which case I'd be wrong. But based today's knowledge (that's all we have), standing pat and taking Nassib/Barkley would be a bad move. It's only a bad move if there isn't a dealt there for the taking. If there is such a deal, I'd recommend taking it. Incidentally, the Bills offered to move up in 2004 to #10 from #14 in order to take Roethlisberger, and were rebuffed.
Dawgg Posted April 25, 2013 Posted April 25, 2013 It's only a bad move if there isn't a dealt there for the taking. If there is such a deal, I'd recommend taking it. Incidentally, the Bills offered to move up in 2004 to #10 from #14 in order to take Roethlisberger, and were rebuffed. Right. I am virtually certain there will be a deal of some kind. What concerns me is that the Bills will take the QB in order to "sell hope" as they usually do. Nobody will criticize them for doing it and the regime will get an automatic 3-year pass for doing so. Moreover, Russ Brandon's marketing machine will have new jerseys and a pretty face to sell to the fans. If their goal is to truly build a championship roster, they simply would not take one of those QBs at #8 and the front office will go to the earth's end to find a way to get him later in the first. I have no faith in a Buddy led OBD FO and would be pleasantly surprised (downright ecstatic in fact) if they could pull off such maneuvering. I'm with you on that!
Sisyphean Bills Posted April 25, 2013 Posted April 25, 2013 I have no faith in a Buddy led OBD FO and would be pleasantly surprised (downright ecstatic in fact) if they could pull off such maneuvering. I heard they sent Buddy to Cellphone Boot Camp. No worries.
Kelly the Dog Posted April 25, 2013 Posted April 25, 2013 Right. I am virtually certain there will be a deal of some kind. What concerns me is that the Bills will take the QB in order to "sell hope" as they usually do. Nobody will criticize them for doing it and the regime will get an automatic 3-year pass for doing so. Moreover, Russ Brandon's marketing machine will have new jerseys and a pretty face to sell to the fans. Why would Marrone not throw a hissy fit at that when his professional career is heavily determined by who his QB will be? Why would Buddy Nix not throw a hissy fit at that when his legacy is going to be defined by who this QB will be? Why would Doug Whaley not throw a hissy fit at that with his career saddled with a guy he didn't want? It would be WAY different if there was a clear cut choice the Bills had at QB to appease the fans. I still don't think they would do it but it would make a little more sense. The fact is, there isn't a QB they could POSSIBLY draft this year that would please and appease the fans.
26CornerBlitz Posted April 25, 2013 Posted April 25, 2013 I heard they sent Buddy to Cellphone Boot Camp. No worries. Your news is quite comforting.
Dawgg Posted April 25, 2013 Posted April 25, 2013 The fact is, there isn't a QB they could POSSIBLY draft this year that would please and appease the fans. Disagree. Merely using the first pick on a QB - whether it's Nassib or Barkley - will sell hope like you wouldn't believe. That's what this team does best. Remember the exuberance when JP was drafted? When TO was signed? The local media and fanbase is dying for a young QB to get behind as the future franchise QB and the front office has neglected the position for so long, that merely addressing it will appease most fans (and local hacks).
KOKBILLS Posted April 25, 2013 Posted April 25, 2013 One thing scares the h*ll out of me about Manuel. He is just not very accurate. I am a firm believer that you can not teach accuracy. Either you have it or you don't. Save the BS from you high school coaches about adjusting your foot work & such. I remember I was working out on a treadmill right next to Van Miller a few weeks before Losman was going to make his first start against Houston. I asked Van what he thought of Losman & what kind of career did he think he was going to have. Van did not mix words. He said "this kid will never make it because he is just not accurate enough & from my experience you can't teach that." Boy was he right on the mark with that one. Look...I understand Manuel had his issues with accuracy down-the-field...But I'm sorry...It is simply incorrect to say that a QB who completed 68% of his passes as a Sr. has accuracy problems...There were certain teams that gave Manuel a hard time...But that's going to happen with most any QB...The fact is in 10 of his 14 games EJ completed at least 60% of his passes...In 6 of those 14 he completed 70%...And in the 4 games he completed less than 60% one was 58.6%, and another was 59.5%...He only really struggled in one game last year vs. Florida... I'm not saying by any stretch that Manuel is a finished product...because he's clearly not...But that's exactly what makes him my favorite QB in this Draft...He's already shown he can be successful with average Coaching in a short-pass system in College...Now he's going to bring that 6-5 frame, strong arm, and 4.6 speed to the NFL...And the right Coach will make that kid a heck of a player in a couple years...The sky is the limit for Manuel...He's a smart kid and by all accounts a good leader...He's going to need work, but so did Kaepernick...Cam Newton still needs some work...But Manuel has that type of ability...No other QB in this Draft can say that...None of em'...
Kelly the Dog Posted April 25, 2013 Posted April 25, 2013 Disagree. Merely using the first pick on a QB - whether it's Nassib or Barkley - will sell hope like you wouldn't believe. That's what this team does best. Remember the exuberance when JP was drafted? When TO was signed? The local media and fanbase is dying for a young QB to get behind as the future franchise QB and the front office has neglected the position for so long, that merely addressing it will appease most fans (and local hacks). Maybe. I just don't see it. It's almost already a Flutie/Johnson thing between Nassib and Barkley. I don't think half the fans would be excited by either one. They may be somewhat intrigued by the possibility, and hope that one or the other would turn out to be great and the franchise guy, but I sincerely doubt it would translate to a rush at the BO, and they are going to sell out the first five games regardless. Now, if there was an Andrew Luck or a RGIII available, or even a Matt Stafford or Sam Bradford, it would be way different. I just don't think there is any guy who would get a big amount of fans excited. Half the board here would freak out in a bad way if we chose Barkley or Nassib. JP didnt sell any tickets. He wasnt even expected to play, and he didn't.
dave mcbride Posted April 25, 2013 Author Posted April 25, 2013 Disagree. Merely using the first pick on a QB - whether it's Nassib or Barkley - will sell hope like you wouldn't believe. That's what this team does best. Remember the exuberance when JP was drafted? When TO was signed? The local media and fanbase is dying for a young QB to get behind as the future franchise QB and the front office has neglected the position for so long, that merely addressing it will appease most fans (and local hacks). It goes without saying that the worst outcome of all is not getting the QB who they think is best. They need to draft a QB first. It's time to finally stop the madness.
JimS Posted April 25, 2013 Posted April 25, 2013 They did their due diligence and I am happy with that. Make the pick at 8, don't look back, and let coaching/scheme take of the rest. With that said, please no guard or small receiver.
Orton's Arm Posted April 25, 2013 Posted April 25, 2013 Precisely. Some team will move up to get Tavon Austin. He is shooting up draft boards. The question is, are the Bills willing to risk losing out on Nassib in the off-chance some team takes him in the first round? If you want to build your team the right way, you have to be willing to take that calculated risk with the additional pick serving as compensation for the risk. Baltimore did exactly this a few years ago. Like the Bills, they had pick #8. They targeted Flacco, knew he was a late first rounder. Traded down to #26, acquired 3 extra picks, then moved back up to #18 to get their guy. That's why the Ravens win championships, they maximize the value of their picks. Simply standing pat and taking a QB at 8 would be lauded by fans and the Buffalo News, but (yet another) lost opportunity. The Bills have had one franchise QB in their history: Jim Kelly. A few years ago, I remember reading and hearing that the Bills liked Ponder, and were considering taking him in the second round; or else trading back into the first for him. That plan didn't work as expected--and the Bills were stuck going another year without a successor to Kelly. It's great if you can get an Aaron Rodgers or a Joe Flacco--guys who were taken late in the first, and who turned out to be franchise quarterbacks. The teams that drafted those players certainly maximized the value of their draft picks. Suppose the Bills take Barkley 8th overall; and suppose he goes on to have as good a career as Flacco's. You could point out that this was a lesser accomplishment than Ozzie Newsome's; because Newsome had spent less (in terms of draft picks) to achieve the same result. And you'd be right. But at this point, finding a successor to Kelly greatly outweighs the importance of squeezing every last possible drop of value out of our 8th overall pick. If Barkley will fill the void left by Kelly, he makes sense at 8th overall. If he won't fill that void, it would be a mistake to draft him at all. If Barkley is the guy they want, it would be a mistake to let teams like the Jets have multiple opportunities to take him.
dave mcbride Posted April 25, 2013 Author Posted April 25, 2013 (edited) The Bills have had one franchise QB in their history: Jim Kelly. A few years ago, I remember reading and hearing that the Bills liked Ponder, and were considering taking him in the second round; or else trading back into the first for him. That plan didn't work as expected--and the Bills were stuck going another year without a successor to Kelly. It's great if you can get an Aaron Rodgers or a Joe Flacco--guys who were taken late in the first, and who turned out to be franchise quarterbacks. The teams that drafted those players certainly maximized the value of their draft picks. Suppose the Bills take Barkley 8th overall; and suppose he goes on to have as good a career as Flacco's. You could point out that this was a lesser accomplishment than Ozzie Newsome's; because Newsome had spent less (in terms of draft picks) to achieve the same result. And you'd be right. But at this point, finding a successor to Kelly greatly outweighs the importance of squeezing every last possible drop of value out of our 8th overall pick. If Barkley will fill the void left by Kelly, he makes sense at 8th overall. If he won't fill that void, it would be a mistake to draft him at all. If Barkley is the guy they want, it would be a mistake to let teams like the Jets have multiple opportunities to take him. Excellent post, although I think the impulse behind is that you want to change your name to Barkley's arm. Edited April 25, 2013 by dave mcbride
Kelly the Dog Posted April 25, 2013 Posted April 25, 2013 The Bills have had one franchise QB in their history: Jim Kelly. A few years ago, I remember reading and hearing that the Bills liked Ponder, and were considering taking him in the second round; or else trading back into the first for him. That plan didn't work as expected--and the Bills were stuck going another year without a successor to Kelly. It's great if you can get an Aaron Rodgers or a Joe Flacco--guys who were taken late in the first, and who turned out to be franchise quarterbacks. The teams that drafted those players certainly maximized the value of their draft picks. Suppose the Bills take Barkley 8th overall; and suppose he goes on to have as good a career as Flacco's. You could point out that this was a lesser accomplishment than Ozzie Newsome's; because Newsome had spent less (in terms of draft picks) to achieve the same result. And you'd be right. But at this point, finding a successor to Kelly greatly outweighs the importance of squeezing every last possible drop of value out of our 8th overall pick. If Barkley will fill the void left by Kelly, he makes sense at 8th overall. If he won't fill that void, it would be a mistake to draft him at all. If Barkley is the guy they want, it would be a mistake to let teams like the Jets have multiple opportunities to take him. Except Ponder is mediocre, Viking fans seem to already have given up on him even though he played decently at times, and if we had him we wouldn't be any closer to replacing Kelly than we are now with Kevin Kolb. It's not about picking a QB high, it's about picking the right QB or signing the right QB FA. Making more choices high gives you a better chance at it for sure, and we should have spent more high picks on QBs in our history. Most of the QBs that are drafted suck though, or at best are decent players but not Super Bowl winners.
Dawgg Posted April 25, 2013 Posted April 25, 2013 But at this point, finding a successor to Kelly greatly outweighs the importance of squeezing every last possible drop of value out of our 8th overall pick. If Barkley will fill the void left by Kelly, he makes sense at 8th overall. If he won't fill that void, it would be a mistake to draft him at all. If Barkley is the guy they want, it would be a mistake to let teams like the Jets have multiple opportunities to take him. The bolded statement is irrelevant because nobody can predict the future. All one can do is select a course of action based on present knowledge... and based on present knowledge, Nassib and Barkley are late first round / early second round prospects with potential (not certain) upside to become franchise QBs. Reaching on them would be a waste of resources, plain and simple. And I'm tired of hearing "If they like him then take him" -- so are you saying that you trust the instincts of the same front office that paid Ryan Fitzpatrick like a franchise quarterback? Please. Except Ponder is mediocre, Viking fans seem to already have given up on him even though he played decently at times, and if we had him we wouldn't be any closer to replacing Kelly than we are now with Kevin Kolb. It's not about picking a QB high, it's about picking the right QB or signing the right QB FA. Making more choices high gives you a better chance at it for sure, and we should have spent more high picks on QBs in our history. Most of the QBs that are drafted suck though, or at best are decent players but not Super Bowl winners. Exactly correct.
Gordio Posted April 25, 2013 Posted April 25, 2013 Look...I understand Manuel had his issues with accuracy down-the-field...But I'm sorry...It is simply incorrect to say that a QB who completed 68% of his passes as a Sr. has accuracy problems...There were certain teams that gave Manuel a hard time...But that's going to happen with most any QB...The fact is in 10 of his 14 games EJ completed at least 60% of his passes...In 6 of those 14 he completed 70%...And in the 4 games he completed less than 60% one was 58.6%, and another was 59.5%...He only really struggled in one game last year vs. Florida... I'm not saying by any stretch that Manuel is a finished product...because he's clearly not...But that's exactly what makes him my favorite QB in this Draft...He's already shown he can be successful with average Coaching in a short-pass system in College...Now he's going to bring that 6-5 frame, strong arm, and 4.6 speed to the NFL...And the right Coach will make that kid a heck of a player in a couple years...The sky is the limit for Manuel...He's a smart kid and by all accounts a good leader...He's going to need work, but so did Kaepernick...Cam Newton still needs some work...But Manuel has that type of ability...No other QB in this Draft can say that...None of em'... I have seen him play & his downfield accuracy is just not there. I agree that Manuel has the biggest upside of any QB in this draft, I also think he has the biggest bust potential out of all the QBs being talked about in the first round(Smith, Barkley,Nassib, Manuel). What I would like to happen is if they trade down to the mid teens, but gun to my head & I have to pick someone at 8 I am going Barkley. This kids intangibles are off the chart. I jsut think he is going to be very successful. I don't give a sh*t what any of the experts say.
dave mcbride Posted April 25, 2013 Author Posted April 25, 2013 (edited) Except Ponder is mediocre, Viking fans seem to already have given up on him even though he played decently at times, and if we had him we wouldn't be any closer to replacing Kelly than we are now with Kevin Kolb. It's not about picking a QB high, it's about picking the right QB or signing the right QB FA. Making more choices high gives you a better chance at it for sure, and we should have spent more high picks on QBs in our history. Most of the QBs that are drafted suck though, or at best are decent players but not Super Bowl winners. In the final four games of 2012, and against defenses that ranked in sequence 5th, 14th, 7th, and 11th, Ponder completed 60.6 percent of his passes (6.3 ypa) with 4 TDs and 1 INT. He also ran for a score. His rating over those four games was 88.4. The Vikings won all of those games (against the 10-6 Bears, the 12-4 Texans, the 7-9 Rams, and the 11-5 Packers). I think many people have jumped to conclusions about Ponder without parsing the evidence. It is the case that players can improve over time. Edited April 25, 2013 by dave mcbride
JimS Posted April 25, 2013 Posted April 25, 2013 Reaching on them would be a waste of resources, plain and simple. And I'm tired of hearing "If they like him then take him" -- so are you saying that you trust the instincts of the same front office that paid Ryan Fitzpatrick like a franchise quarterback? Please. Sorry, that is incorrect. At the time it made him the 19th highest paid QB, hardly franchise numbers.
Perk71 Posted April 25, 2013 Posted April 25, 2013 Actually, Jaws said this morning that Geno Smith is the only one that he feels is top 10 pick worthy. I hope they don't pick Smith...
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