hondo in seattle Posted April 25, 2013 Posted April 25, 2013 It's pretty obvious that Nix and OBD are thinking a lot about QB. They've interviewed all the top QBs and Nix has been talking about how important the position is. But this doesn't mean, we'll take a QB with the #8 pick. If the QB Nix has identified is someone they think will last to the 2nd round, I think may go with BPA in Round 1. I have absolutely no talent for evaluating college talent but I do pay attention to what comes out of OBD. In 2010 and 2011, I correctly guessed our first picks. In 2010, for example, Nix was talking a lot about the importance of play-makers. Either Nix or Gailey mentioned something about 'waterbug' (was that the expression?) type RBs. It wasn't hard to guess they were looking at Spiller. I was wrong in 2012 - but Gilmore was not a shock. But this year I'm mystified. I will say that if the Bills don't pick a QB in the first two rounds, I'll be shocked. I'm just not convinced - given the QBs available - it will be Round 1. And I don't have a read on how much faith OBD has in Kolb. They might be a little more patient with a QB pick now that Kolb is here and we can theoretically take the time to groom someone. So let me crawl far out on a limb here: With a mere 22.23% confidence, I'm guessing Geno Smith with the #8 pick. But it could be another QB, or a WR or an OL or someone else. Tonight - and this weekend - will be very interesting.
bonechiller Posted April 25, 2013 Posted April 25, 2013 Dagnubit. But seriously, Nix has so massively pickled himself. He passed on numerous solid QB prospects and went all in on Fitzpatrick, and now he's stuck being desperate for a QB in the worst QB draft in a long time. My reaction is one gigantic sigh. It's all so Bills-like. I'm beginning to wonder if this is as bad a draft class as it is being made out to be. I know there isn't the " stand out" guy we usually see as a number one pick, but I'm startin to like Nassib, Barkley, or Manual. Even Landry Jones, Glenneon, ect may be better than first thought.
purple haze Posted April 25, 2013 Posted April 25, 2013 I can't help but conclude that they're taking a qb at 8. A lot was said, but this was the clincher: 'The importance of the position can't be understated. Get the right guy, and everyone in the organization feels better. Scouts look smarter. General managers are geniuses. "I mean, when we're doing one, it's weighted. Because, if you don't have one, you know, that's it," [bills college scout Tom] Roth said. "In our minds, and I think in every scout's mind, it's weighted. It's got to be. "I've been here 11 years. I've been through so many quarterbacks here. It sucks. You need one."' http://www.buffalone...ills-drive-1082 This team is absolutely desparate for a qb. They are going to take one with their first pick. Maybe. Doesn't mean that first pick will be at 8 though. Trade down with the Rams is possible. They like Austin so it's been reported.
Gordio Posted April 25, 2013 Posted April 25, 2013 In Reply to kellyto83TD: I don't care about the 70 yard throw as much as I do hitting a 15-20 yard seam route with tight coverage. Do you know how many times I have heard on the radio after a Bills game a QB talking about how it was a tough day throwing at the Ralph because of the swirling winds. There have been so many games where the Bills have chosen not to throw until they had the wind at their backs. For you to say you have sat at the Ralph and you don't think wind is an issue tells me everything I need to know about your credability. For every expert who says arm strength is not a factor I can give you 5 that say it is; just read what the Bills scouts say about it. But, other than that, I still believe Manuel has so many other qualitues as well, that it would be hard to pass him up. Also, you said some things about Jaws not being associated with any team as a scout or coach. Is Kurt Warner? You don't have to be a scout or coach to be an expert in football. I think the wind angle gets over played too. Take a look at last years home games. This is right from accuweather - KC game Sept 16th - 69 degrees -0- precipitation - 8mph winds New England Sept 30th - 59 degrees -0- precipitation - 5mph winds Tenn Oct 21 - 55 degrees -0- precip - 19mph winds Miami - Nov 15th - 38 degrees -0- precip - 4mph winds Jacksonville - Dec 2nd - 50 degrees -0- precipitation - 10mph winds Rams - Dec 9th - 39 degrees -trace of precipitation- 11mph winds Jets - Dec 30th - 29 degrees - -0- precip[itation - 14 mph winds This home schedule was back loaded as ever I could remember. The weather was not bad. I am quite sure Barkley could throw in 10-15 mph winds. If he couldn't he wouldn't be on any teams board.
dave mcbride Posted April 25, 2013 Author Posted April 25, 2013 I think the wind angle gets over played too. Take a look at last years home games. This is right from accuweather - KC game Sept 16th - 69 degrees -0- precipitation - 8mph winds New England Sept 30th - 59 degrees -0- precipitation - 5mph winds Tenn Oct 21 - 55 degrees -0- precip - 19mph winds Miami - Nov 15th - 38 degrees -0- precip - 4mph winds Jacksonville - Dec 2nd - 50 degrees -0- precipitation - 10mph winds Rams - Dec 9th - 39 degrees -trace of precipitation- 11mph winds Jets - Dec 30th - 29 degrees - -0- precip[itation - 14 mph winds This home schedule was back loaded as ever I could remember. The weather was not bad. I am quite sure Barkley could throw in 10-15 mph winds. If he couldn't he wouldn't be on any teams board. Excellent info - thanks.
Dawgg Posted April 25, 2013 Posted April 25, 2013 I can't help but conclude that they're taking a qb at 8. A lot was said, but this was the clincher: 'The importance of the position can't be understated. Get the right guy, and everyone in the organization feels better. Scouts look smarter. General managers are geniuses. "I mean, when we're doing one, it's weighted. Because, if you don't have one, you know, that's it," [bills college scout Tom] Roth said. "In our minds, and I think in every scout's mind, it's weighted. It's got to be. "I've been here 11 years. I've been through so many quarterbacks here. It sucks. You need one."' http://www.buffalone...ills-drive-1082 This team is absolutely desparate for a qb. They are going to take one with their first pick. Taking a QB in Round 1, great. Taking a QB at #8 would be a mistake. Fans would love it, but it would be an imprudent decision a hallmark of the Buffalo Bills' front office.
Lurker Posted April 25, 2013 Posted April 25, 2013 They are going to take one with their first pick. The question is--is it the 8th pick or something lower? I just hope some other GMs are as desperate to move up as we are to move down...
Gordio Posted April 25, 2013 Posted April 25, 2013 At this point, it would behoove the Bills to select EJ late in the first that is if they can trade down. He makes the most sense and would definitely have a longer career when compared to Nassib and Barkley. My thinking is that we need to get a QB that needs to sit and learn this season while learning from Kolb and Jackson. IMO, Kolb will start and thrive with the bills this season. He was throwing darts in camp weeks ago. One thing scares the h*ll out of me about Manuel. He is just not very accurate. I am a firm believer that you can not teach accuracy. Either you have it or you don't. Save the BS from you high school coaches about adjusting your foot work & such. I remember I was working out on a treadmill right next to Van Miller a few weeks before Losman was going to make his first start against Houston. I asked Van what he thought of Losman & what kind of career did he think he was going to have. Van did not mix words. He said "this kid will never make it because he is just not accurate enough & from my experience you can't teach that." Boy was he right on the mark with that one.
dave mcbride Posted April 25, 2013 Author Posted April 25, 2013 Taking a QB in Round 1, great. Taking a QB at #8 would be a mistake. Fans would love it, but it would be an imprudent decision a hallmark of the Buffalo Bills' front office. But if no one wants to trade up (a very real possibility based on what I'm reading), what are you supposed to do? If you really like a QB and fear he won't be there in the early second round, you've gotta take him.
Sisyphean Bills Posted April 25, 2013 Posted April 25, 2013 But if no one wants to trade up (a very real possibility based on what I'm reading), what are you supposed to do? If you really like a QB and fear he won't be there in the early second round, you've gotta take him. If you know he won't be there, doesn't that mean you also have some idea of who else is after him?
dave mcbride Posted April 25, 2013 Author Posted April 25, 2013 If you know he won't be there, doesn't that mean you also have some idea of who else is after him? It could be any number of teams - 2 or 3 most likely (Jags, Houston, and one or two others). My point is that the idea that there are teams begging to move up to 8 could be sheer fantasy.
Dawgg Posted April 25, 2013 Posted April 25, 2013 But if no one wants to trade up (a very real possibility based on what I'm reading), what are you supposed to do? If you really like a QB and fear he won't be there in the early second round, you've gotta take him. If you know he won't be there, doesn't that mean you also have some idea of who else is after him? Precisely. Some team will move up to get Tavon Austin. He is shooting up draft boards. The question is, are the Bills willing to risk losing out on Nassib in the off-chance some team takes him in the first round? If you want to build your team the right way, you have to be willing to take that calculated risk with the additional pick serving as compensation for the risk. Baltimore did exactly this a few years ago. Like the Bills, they had pick #8. They targeted Flacco, knew he was a late first rounder. Traded down to #26, acquired 3 extra picks, then moved back up to #18 to get their guy. That's why the Ravens win championships, they maximize the value of their picks. Simply standing pat and taking a QB at 8 would be lauded by fans and the Buffalo News, but (yet another) lost opportunity.
26CornerBlitz Posted April 25, 2013 Posted April 25, 2013 Baltimore did exactly this a few years ago. Like the Bills, they had pick #8. They targeted Flacco, knew he was a late first rounder. Traded down to #26, acquired 3 extra picks, then moved back up to #18 to get their guy. That's why the Ravens win championships, they maximize the value of their picks. Simply standing pat and taking a QB at 8 would be lauded by fans and the Buffalo News, but (yet another) lost opportunity. Precisely stated.
dave mcbride Posted April 25, 2013 Author Posted April 25, 2013 (edited) Precisely. Some team will move up to get Tavon Austin. He is shooting up draft boards. The question is, are the Bills willing to risk losing out on Nassib in the off-chance some team takes him in the first round? If you want to build your team the right way, you have to be willing to take that calculated risk with the additional pick serving as compensation for the risk. Baltimore did exactly this a few years ago. Like the Bills, they had pick #8. They targeted Flacco, knew he was a late first rounder. Traded down to #26, acquired 3 extra picks, then moved back up to #18 to get their guy. That's why the Ravens win championships, they maximize the value of their picks. Simply standing pat and taking a QB at 8 would be lauded by fans and the Buffalo News, but (yet another) lost opportunity. I wouldn't be so sure about teams begging to move up. The top of the draft is allegedly weak and the middle is supposed to be strong. The Rams, for instance, did well last year by stockpiling second rounders (they had three in that round). Why turn from that strategy when it worked well last year? If the Bills can pull off a Flacco deal, I'll be very happy. I think the chances of this happening are very, very small, however. I'm certainly not opposed to moving back into the middle of the round. I just don't know how feasible it is given this year's draft. Edited April 25, 2013 by dave mcbride
Dawgg Posted April 25, 2013 Posted April 25, 2013 It could be any number of teams - 2 or 3 most likely (Jags, Houston, and one or two others). My point is that the idea that there are teams begging to move up to 8 could be sheer fantasy. Could be, and while that's what Buddy will say on the podium after reaching on a QB at #8, but I'd find it hard to believe. There is a heavy appetite to trade up. Falcons, Ravens, 49ers, Rams all want to move up. Vikings have been inquiring as well. There is plenty of opportunity. The question is whether the Bills can be flexible without being overly fixated on one single player.
KOKBILLS Posted April 25, 2013 Posted April 25, 2013 Precisely. Some team will move up to get Tavon Austin. He is shooting up draft boards. The question is, are the Bills willing to risk losing out on Nassib in the off-chance some team takes him in the first round? If you want to build your team the right way, you have to be willing to take that calculated risk with the additional pick serving as compensation for the risk. Baltimore did exactly this a few years ago. Like the Bills, they had pick #8. They targeted Flacco, knew he was a late first rounder. Traded down to #26, acquired 3 extra picks, then moved back up to #18 to get their guy. That's why the Ravens win championships, they maximize the value of their picks. Simply standing pat and taking a QB at 8 would be lauded by fans and the Buffalo News, but (yet another) lost opportunity. Exactly correct!!!
Kelly the Dog Posted April 25, 2013 Posted April 25, 2013 Baltimore did exactly this a few years ago. Like the Bills, they had pick #8. They targeted Flacco, knew he was a late first rounder. Traded down to #26, acquired 3 extra picks, then moved back up to #18 to get their guy. That's why the Ravens win championships, they maximize the value of their picks. Simply standing pat and taking a QB at 8 would be lauded by fans and the Buffalo News, but (yet another) lost opportunity. Yep. That is why Ozzie is the best. But Ozzie himself would very likely tell you that it was a big risk, and they worried Flacco may not be there, and they were somewhat lucky it played out the way they wanted. And that they had 3-4 (probably pretty good) contingency plans. The fact is, you need good scouts, you need to be a good evaluator, you need to be good making selections with very little separating players, you need to be able to think clearly under pressure, and you need to get very lucky.
Dawgg Posted April 25, 2013 Posted April 25, 2013 If the Bills can pull off a Flacco deal, I'll be very happy. I think the chances of this happening are very, very small, however. I'm with you on this, but for different reasons. I just don't think the Bills are capable of executing a deal like this. Donahoe was a dealmaker, but since his departure, our front office has shown that it's more about squandering picks and desperately trading up for "their guy" than staying patient, assigning appropriate values to players and moving down when necessary. If Tavon Austin is still on the board, a deal will be there for the taking... will the Bills take it?
dave mcbride Posted April 25, 2013 Author Posted April 25, 2013 I'm with you on this, but for different reasons. I just don't think the Bills are capable of executing a deal like this. Donahoe was a dealmaker, but since his departure, our front office has shown that it's more about squandering picks and desperately trading up for "their guy" than staying patient, assigning appropriate values to players and moving down when necessary. If Tavon Austin is still on the board, a deal will be there for the taking... will the Bills take it? I think they're spooked by the Jets. The Jets are going to take a QB at some point. They can't continue with Sanchez. It's not a matter of if but when, and they have a number of picks.
Dawgg Posted April 25, 2013 Posted April 25, 2013 Yep. That is why Ozzie is the best. But Ozzie himself would very likely tell you that it was a big risk, and they worried Flacco may not be there, and they were somewhat lucky it played out the way they wanted. And that they had 3-4 (probably pretty good) contingency plans. The fact is, you need good scouts, you need to be a good evaluator, you need to be good making selections with very little separating players, you need to be able to think clearly under pressure, and you need to get very lucky. Exactly - that's the whole point. Of course the Ravens were taking a risk, but they also got paid to take the risk in the form of 3 extra picks, which gave them the flexibility and currency they needed to move up and down the draft. If the Bills take the calculated risk and trade down and miss out on Nassib because some other team reached for him in the teens (unlikely to happen), they have a backup plan in place. They are high on Barkley and can take him. They can pick 2 starters at other positions and grab a QB in the 3rd. Bottom line: overdrafting Nassib or Barkley at #8 would be a mistake. Perhaps they will turn out to be championship QBs, in which case I'd be wrong. But based today's knowledge (that's all we have), standing pat and taking Nassib/Barkley would be a bad move.
Recommended Posts