"We got the guy we wanted all along."

[DrDawkinstein]

Great post, Kelly! So true. I wish there was a course new posters/fans could take on GM-speak and Coach-speak.

 

"He was our fourth choice, but we thought, 'what the hell?'"

 

haha would love to hear this

[Dr. Trooth]

Regardless of who the Bills select as a QB, unless it is #8 and the first QB off the board, that is likely to be the verbatim post draft statement and mantra from everyone associated with the team, and they will go on to say it was consensus.

 

It's also likely to be utter bullshhit. Of course, it's possible that it is true, and they lucked out, and they were all in agreement, but it is something we fans will likely never ever know.

 

There is even a decent chance that if they take one at 41, and they say he was the guy they wanted all along, he could have been the 3rd or 4th or even 5th rated QB on their board.

 

The chances are also highly likely that these guys are bunched up very closely. And between five QBs they may have one rated 84, one 83, one 82, etc (or whatever their system is).

 

Add that to the fact that depending on who they draft at #8, the qualities of the QB and who they like may slightly change. For example, if, say, they were smitten with Patterson or Austin, and took one of them at #8, they may (repeat may) be more inclined to want to draft a guy with a bigger arm like Glennon, Bray, Jones, etc. If they draft Eifert, they may want a guy who will spread it around a little better. If they draft a lineman, Barkley and his rag arm may not be as big of an issue as they may want to run the ball more and his slightly better smarts may slightly outweigh another's slightly better arm.

 

We don't know, and they don't know, who is going to be available when their pick comes up, and what they are willing to give up to move up when they inevitably make calls to.

 

The only thing we do know is, in retrospect, "this was the guy we wanted all along", and fans, including myself, will likely use some of those quotes in years to come as back-up for our posts.

 

It just won't likely be true.

 

I don't doubt that, they certainly don't want to get egg on their faces or be second guessed.

 

Now, you mention rating of the QBs.

1) Rating based on what?

2) Does it matter if the QB is rated high, but can't excel at running your offense? Maybe asking a square peg to fit in a round hole?

3) Would Cam Newton be a better option in New Orleans than Drew Brees?

4) Would Russell Wilson be a better option in Green Bay than Aaron Rodgers?

5) If Tom Brady had landed in Buffalo as a rookie, would he be the Bills QB today, and would he have been as successful?

6) Do all teams rate all of the QBs the same? I mean if I look at all 32 draft boards, will the 1-10 rankings on all the QBs be the same? If not, why not?

 

The most important thing I believe is that when a player is drafted, he has to be a fit for what you want to run offensively or defensively. Can that player be put in a position to succeed within your scheme? Otherwise, that's how you end up with JP Losmans, McCargos, McGahees, Lynches, and Maybins. They either weren't good to begin with because your ratings were flawed, or they were not put in positions or schemes to succeed.

 

 

[Kelly the Dog]

I don't doubt that, they certainly don't want to get egg on their faces or be second guessed.

 

Now, you mention rating of the QBs.

1) Rating based on what?

2) Does it matter if the QB is rated high, but can't excel at running your offense? Maybe asking a square peg to fit in a round hole?

3) Would Cam Newton be a better option in New Orleans than Drew Brees?

4) Would Russell Wilson be a better option in Green Bay than Aaron Rodgers?

5) If Tom Brady had landed in Buffalo as a rookie, would he be the Bills QB today, and would he have been as successful?

6) Do all teams rate all of the QBs the same? I mean if I look at all 32 draft boards, will the 1-10 rankings on all the QBs be the same? If not, why not?

 

The most important thing I believe is that when a player is drafted, he has to be a fit for what you want to run offensively or defensively. Can that player be put in a position to succeed within your scheme? Otherwise, that's how you end up with JP Losmans, McCargos, McGahees, Lynches, and Maybins. They either weren't good to begin with because your ratings were flawed, or they were not put in positions or schemes to succeed.

I just mean the team assigns a rating to every player, compared to all the other players. Usually is it out of 100 from what I have seen. And that is how they look at their board. These QBs are probably going to be somewhere in the 80s, and grouped closely around each other, with few players being in the 90s. All of the aforementioned stuff you listed will already be factored into those ratings because obviously the Bills are the only team that is being considered by the Bills, and what they're looking for in a player weighs heavily in those ratings.

[NickelCity]

At least it avoids the "fan speak" the majority of us will likely go through on Thursday, step by step, in a series of posts:

 

1) Not sure how I feel about this pick/Ugh, not who I wanted/Nooooo!

2) Well, maybe with Marrone's new system his skill set makes sense.

3) I think this might work out.

4) I love this pick! Superbowl!!!

Edited April 23, 2013 by NickelCity

[Leelee Phoenix]

Nothing will be better than Gailey admitting on Day 1 that Spiller would never be his workhorse back.

[Dibs]

Regardless of who the Bills select as a QB, unless it is #8 and the first QB off the board, that is likely to be the verbatim post draft statement and mantra from everyone associated with the team, and they will go on to say it was consensus.

 

It's also likely to be utter bullshhit. Of course, it's possible that it is true, and they lucked out, and they were all in agreement, but it is something we fans will likely never ever know......

 

I tend to think that if we draft a QB in the 1st there will be a higher likelihood of that standard statement being true this year than for the past 20.

[billsfan1959]

Regardless of who the Bills select as a QB, unless it is #8 and the first QB off the board, that is likely to be the verbatim post draft statement and mantra from everyone associated with the team, and they will go on to say it was consensus.

 

It's also likely to be utter bullshhit. Of course, it's possible that it is true, and they lucked out, and they were all in agreement, but it is something we fans will likely never ever know.

 

There is even a decent chance that if they take one at 41, and they say he was the guy they wanted all along, he could have been the 3rd or 4th or even 5th rated QB on their board.

 

The chances are also highly likely that these guys are bunched up very closely. And between five QBs they may have one rated 84, one 83, one 82, etc (or whatever their system is).

 

Add that to the fact that depending on who they draft at #8, the qualities of the QB and who they like may slightly change. For example, if, say, they were smitten with Patterson or Austin, and took one of them at #8, they may (repeat may) be more inclined to want to draft a guy with a bigger arm like Glennon, Bray, Jones, etc. If they draft Eifert, they may want a guy who will spread it around a little better. If they draft a lineman, Barkley and his rag arm may not be as big of an issue as they may want to run the ball more and his slightly better smarts may slightly outweigh another's slightly better arm.

 

We don't know, and they don't know, who is going to be available when their pick comes up, and what they are willing to give up to move up when they inevitably make calls to.

 

The only thing we do know is, in retrospect, "this was the guy we wanted all along", and fans, including myself, will likely use some of those quotes in years to come as back-up for our posts.

 

It just won't likely be true.

 

Isn't this pretty much true for every team in the NFL? Can't really recall the last time I heard a GM, coach, etc. say "We never really wanted this guy and he'll probably be out of the NFL by our next draft."

[Kellyto83TD]

I would love just once to be able to have a live cam they didn't know about in the draft room with a live feed through the first day of the draft to all Bills fans.

[Nanker]

We got our quarterback. Now it's up to him to produce.

[Kelly the Dog]

I tend to think that if we draft a QB in the 1st there will be a higher likelihood of that standard statement being true this year than for the past 20.

Well, if there are only 1-2 QBs taken in the first, then sure. If 2-3 are taken before the Bills take one, we will never know. Although, if that happens, it's not likely to be at #8, and if the Bills REALLY liked a guy who is gone by the time they do take one, they would have taken him at #8. Even though I stand by the thesis of the thread, it's still really likely IMO the Bills and most other teams, have a lot of these guys ranked close to one another, no sure things, and don't really have a strong feeling that their #2 ranked QB is going to be a better NFL player than their #3 or #4 guy. In effect, they're hoping to luck out.

 

I almost guarantee that Ozzie Newsome, the best in the biz, didn't know what he had in Joe Flacco and basically, even though he made an informed, calculated decision to draft him, was hoping to luck out.

[eball]

You left out the best quote of all:

 

"We couldn't believe he was still on the board." That one's my favorite.

[Kelly the Dog]

You left out the best quote of all:

 

"We couldn't believe he was still on the board." That one's my favorite.

Yeah, that's a good one, too. Although in Cordy Glenn's case last year, I imagine that was true for once.

[Malazan]

We need more honesty and transparency like that coming from our front office guys. That's what Bills fans deserve and demand.

 

Could you imagine the TBD meltdown if they said this?

[Not at the table Karlos]

"He ain't the guy we wanted all along. Not by a long shot. But we're gonna grow to like him and you will, too."

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

Lmfao. That was perfect

[San Jose Bills Fan]

The same holds true for the posters. We'll get:

 

"This is a great pick. Love this pick!"

or

"This is the worst pick in the history of the franchise. This guy has bust written all over him"

 

Oh thank God you're safe.

 

Some kid stole your avatar and we were all worried about you.

 

With posters it's a bit different because I think the team is probably lying while the fans are trying to talk themselves into liking the pick.

 

Or something like that.

[KeisterHollow]

Good topic. Kelly, I find I enjoy your point of view on these boards.

 

My response to this is: if Buffalo really thinks there is a franchise QB in this draft and they are able to take him at 8, they will. If they trade down, or take another position at 8, it means they are willing to take the best rated QB on their board when the next opportunity comes - or, perhaps even two choices later; whatever the case may be, if they pass on QB at 8 it means they didn't have any of them rated high enough to have considered them truly Franchise QB material. Because, if they pass on QB at 8 it means there are opportunities for any team between the 8 pick and their next pick to get "that guy", and, as I said, they wouldn't dream of passing on a Super Bowl caliber QB.

 

Another thing to consider - and which I hadn't really considered until today - what if Nix and Marrone, or Nix, Whaley, and Marrone, all have different QB's they'd like to select? How does THAT dynamic pan out? It seems like a pretty lousy situation if they're all bickering over who to take, especially as it seems like Whaley has been pushed to the forefront of late. I'd like to think the Front Office is united in their vision - but, it just might be the case that Marrone wants one guy and Nix might pick another. That scenario scares me, and is just one more way this franchise could open itself up to more of the same.

[Malazan]

Oh thank God you're safe.

 

Some kid stole your avatar and we were all worried about you.

 

With posters it's a bit different because I think the team is probably lying while the fans are trying to talk themselves into liking the pick.

 

Or something like that.

 

seems like many talk themselves into hating it...or just talk to themselves.

[Astrobot]

Add that to the fact that depending on who they draft at #8, the qualities of the QB and who they like may slightly change. For example, if, say, they were smitten with Patterson or Austin, and took one of them at #8, they may (repeat may) be more inclined to want to draft a guy with a bigger arm like Glennon, Bray, Jones, etc. If they draft Eifert, they may want a guy who will spread it around a little better. If they draft a lineman, Barkley and his rag arm may not be as big of an issue as they may want to run the ball more and his slightly better smarts may slightly outweigh another's slightly better arm.

 

You make an excellent point! They don't have A Quarterback; they have multiple scenarios depending on the madness that happens ahead of them. This is going to be a great ride! Buckle up!

[Alphadawg7]

I remember Nix saying that after he hired Gailey.

 

I thought to myself "really? That's who you wanted ALL along??"

 

CBF

 

They meant he was the guy they wanted all along that wanted to coach the Bills...and he was also the only coach who wanted to coach the Bills and therefore the only guy they could want making the statement true

[Kelly the Dog]

 

 

My response to this is: if Buffalo really thinks there is a franchise QB in this draft and they are able to take him at 8, they will. If they trade down, or take another position at 8, it means they are willing to take the best rated QB on their board when the next opportunity comes - or, perhaps even two choices later; whatever the case may be, if they pass on QB at 8 it means they didn't have any of them rated high enough to have considered them truly Franchise QB material. Because, if they pass on QB at 8 it means there are opportunities for any team between the 8 pick and their next pick to get "that guy", and, as I said, they wouldn't dream of passing on a Super Bowl caliber QB.

 

There are so many variables at play that I don't really believe the bold part to be true. It may turn out that way, but that may not be their thinking. Their thinking may be that none of these guys is a GREAT bet to be a franchise QB, but 3-4 of them are a DECENT bet to be one, and it's impossible to pick who it's going to be no matter who you are, and no matter which one you think it slightly better chance than another. So their thinking may easily be, #8 is too high for any of them, we LOVE this other guy at a position of need at #8, and we're going to gamble that we can get our guy we want later in the draft, and if we can't, one of the 2-3 guys we have rated very close to one another.

 

Now, there will be people that say that's the kind of thinking that got in the trouble in the first place, not taking a QB earlier. But in my scenario, if they like a guy they take him at 8. If they don't that means they don't think he has a good chance at being that franchise guy. You don't take a QB at 8 unless you love the guy, regardless of your QB troubles. They need to take one in the first two rounds though, or unless they truly love a guy they can get in the third, which I doubt.

 

This year is tough. None of these guys are good bets to be franchise guys. I think what Buddy said is true, that 2-3 of them will become long time starters. I don't think anyone, including me, you, anyone on this board, Buddy Nix or Ozzie Newsome knows with any degree of certainty who those guys are, EVEN IF IN RETROSPECT YOU TURN OUT TO BE RIGHT.