BuffaloBaumer Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 If Someone had taken Russel Wilson or Kaepernick at # 8 last year, what would these so called "experts" have said? The truth is NOBODY has a clue how these guys will perform until they are in live NFL games and the chances are that there ARE 2-3 QBs who will be starting NFL caliber guys. I am actually more excited to hear the input of Marrone than I am Buddy or Whaley because I believe we have a guy (finally) that can pick out the right leader. I think he will have a lot more input than people may think and if we pick a QB at 8, I will be very excited that they think of someone that highly. If we wait until the 2nd round, so be it..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nucci Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 No one does. It's all speculation and opinion. It's what we do before the draft every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 I don't think the GMs and true decision makers do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBaumer Posted April 23, 2013 Author Share Posted April 23, 2013 I don't think the GMs and true decision makers do. Exactly, but I can't count how many times I have sen people here say xyz guy should not be taken at 8 because he is projected as 2nd to 3rd round talent..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 I think you are forgetting that Mel Kiper went to the THE Community College of Baltimore County and has never been involved in football at any level. Honestly, I've been beating this drum for a while. I give credit to Kiper for starting an industry and making a good living doing do something we'd all like to do. But people need to treat it as entertainment instead of gospel. Honestly, with the internet, most of us have just as much access to information as the draft "experts." So use it for entertainment and discussion on message boards. But sports media is the greatest job in the world. There is zero accountability. Fact is, most of these experts would have been fired with some of their predictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buffaloboyinATL Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 Exactly, but I can't count how many times I have sen people here say xyz guy should not be taken at 8 because he is projected as 2nd to 3rd round talent..... I agree with this. A the end of the day we have one pick in each round (almost). If we were a better team last year we might be picking in the 20's instead of number 8. That's why it drives me crazy when people say we can't take someone at 8 because he is projected to go in the 15-20 range and we would be reaching. So what. If he is the right guy for the team, it shouldn't matter where we pick him, especially if he was going to go in that round anyways. I don't neccesarily want a QB at 8, but if we get one and he becomes a decent starter than we did the right thing, whether we got him in round one or round 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsWatch Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 People just repeat idiotic statements like "xxx is rising in the charts" because they can not grasp complexity of game and they are trying to justify their opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 People would also benefit a great deal watching video and drawing their own conclusions than reading most of the crap out there. See what names are on the big boards and watch the videos of them. At least over time you develop your own skills of observation. Just watching videos there were two players last year that I was certain were going in the first round that most "experts" had projected in the 3rd or 4th round. Every year you do this for yourself is a year you actually increase your knowledge of the game, as opposed to reading someone else's opinion… someone who might not understand the game as well as YOU DO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
papazoid Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 no one is right all the time. but some are right more than others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeHateMe Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 Wait so the experts aren't always right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kellyto83TD Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 No. In fact I think they are all idiots. If they were worth a damn they would be making millions working for a team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Hindsight Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 Mayock is usually pretty good. Theres a guy in Texas that does a good job. But guys like Kiper and especially McShay are just talking heads There was an article a few years ago basically saying that whatever McShay says, do the opposite according to many GMs haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 People would also benefit a great deal watching video and drawing their own conclusions than reading most of the crap out there. See what names are on the big boards and watch the videos of them. At least over time you develop your own skills of observation. Just watching videos there were two players last year that I was certain were going in the first round that most "experts" had projected in the 3rd or 4th round. Every year you do this for yourself is a year you actually increase your knowledge of the game, as opposed to reading someone else's opinion… someone who might not understand the game as well as YOU DO. I use it as a jumping off point. its far too much data for one person to pull together on their own, but i tend to give like a 20-30% on any given ranking. so by the time your at pick 100 on a kiper board, i leave it open to a guy really going about 70-130, for instance, where pick 10 will likely be 7-13 (obviously special circumstances, like qbs rarely fit the same mold as any other position when modeling the draft) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBaumer Posted April 23, 2013 Author Share Posted April 23, 2013 i just looked at some of the more recognizable scouting reports on Wilson and Kaepernick and wow, just wow.... If Buffalo had the #1 overall pick in either of those drafts, I would have been happy if Buffalo had taken them there (excluding Luck). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 People just repeat idiotic statements like "xxx is rising in the charts" because they can not grasp complexity of game and they are trying to justify their opinion. It's good for business. Somehow players can rise or fall on draft boards months after playing in a game. But as a result, more people can be draft "experts," fill dead time with draft talk, and get things like the combine on the air. Mayock, Kiper, and McShay are evil geniuses who don't have to worry about getting fired if they make a bad picks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hondo in seattle Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 I listen to the "experts" because they know way more than I do. Kiper, McShay, et al do a lot of film study and probably talk to a lot of scouts and coaches. Some of the draft gurus are actually former NFL scouts and GMs. But NFL franchises have entire scouting departments. And the resources of the franchise allow them to edit video, tabulate statistics, talk to people, etc. in a way that Kiper and the boys can't match. I actually think Kipe would be a good regional scout if his ego didn't get in the way of carrying out someone else's program. But I doubt if many take what he says as gospel. Projecting the NFL success of college players is tricky business and going by Kiper's big board, I don't know if his success rate would have been better than any NFL GM's except for maybe Matt Millen's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bills4 Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 No. In fact I think they are all idiots. If they were worth a damn they would be making millions working for a team. Thats true. If any of these guys were real draft wizards, and hit on 75% of their picks being successful in the the nfl, an NFL team would pay them alot of money to GM for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 i just looked at some of the more recognizable scouting reports on Wilson and Kaepernick and wow, just wow.... If Buffalo had the #1 overall pick in either of those drafts, I would have been happy if Buffalo had taken them there (excluding Luck). Numerous posters here wondered aloud whether Kaepernick could be in play for the Bills as a mid-late first rounder based on a trade down scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chandler#81 Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 I agree, Hondo. Not only do they have the time to invest the effort to learn, some of them have been around long enough to have an insiders view of players a team favors. Contrary to the 'it's all BS' crowd, these guys don't live in their Mom's basement and make unfounded assumptions. Well, not ALL of them.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CodeMonkey Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 (edited) People just repeat idiotic statements like "xxx is rising in the charts" because they can not grasp complexity of game and they are trying to justify their opinion. I tend to think it is because most people, so called experts and non experts alike, cannot grasp the lack of complexity of the game and over analyze things. But point taken. Edited April 23, 2013 by CodeMonkey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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