BUDDY NIX AND THE DRAFT

[DreamOnDan]

So there are a few things that I have been considering most important to deciphering what NIX and his staff are gonna do this draft.. I have been fairly decent in predicting some of our picks over the last decade or so... First and foremost we have to consider the fact that Buddy Nix has only drafted players in the first rd that he has brought in for a pre draft visit. I think that this is pretty important when considering the 30 players that have been brought in. Out of Nix's three 1st and 2nd rd picks that he has made, 5 of the 6 have visited pre draft. CJ Spiller, Marcell Dareus, Stephon Gilmore, Aaron Williams, and Cordy Glenn were all pre draft visitors as far as i can remember.. With that being said, here is the list of the 30 visitors. I will highlight the guys that are thought of as sure 1st rd prospects. Not necessarily the guy that is in play at 8, forgive me or feel free to help if I miss a couple...

 

Quarterbacks: E.J. Manuel, Florida State; Mike Glennon, North Carolina State; Geno Smith, West Virginia; Landry Jones, Oklahoma; Jeff Tuel, Washington State; Matt Scott, Arizona; Matt Barkley, USC; Tyler Bray, Tennessee; Tyler Wilson, Arkansas. note: (bills worked out Ryan Nassib privately and In my opinion he could technically be added to this list)

Fullback: Kyle Juszczyk, Harvard.

Wide receivers: Russell Shepard, Louisiana State; Ryan Swope, Texas A&M; Justin Hunter, Tennessee; Zach Rogers, Tennessee; Da'Rick Rogers, Tennessee Tech; Cordarrelle Patterson, Tennessee.

Tight ends: Ryan Griffin, Connecticut; Vance McDonald, Rice.

Linebackers: Jamie Collins, Southern Mississippi; Kevin Minter, Louisiana State; Jarvis Jones, Georgia; Barkevious Mingo, Louisiana State; Dion Jordan, Oregon; Alec Ogletree, Georgia; Ja'Gared Davis, Southern Methodist.

Safeties: Cooper Taylor, Richmond; Malcolm Bronson, McNeese State; Jonathan Meeks, Clemson; Kenny Vaccaro, Texas; Phillip Thomas, Fresno State.

With the list looking like it is, one would assume that the Bills are going to probably select at some point in this draft a Quarterback, Wide Reciever, Linebacker, and a Safety almost for sure... Also TE is a strong possibility that should be considered in the mix at almost any time.. With there being 6 selections available to us as of now there is no reason for me to speculate a trade down in this post. So lets look into the list a little more and see if maybe we can remember some of the things that have come out about each position over the last couple months..

Quarterback: The thing that sticks out to me the most is that fact that Buddy seems to firmly believe that there is 2-3 guys that are gonna be franchise QB and be successful in the league for a long time.. So if this is true, which I believe it is in his mind, that would take a lot of pressure off of the team to select Nassib at #8. If there is 2-3. who do you think he thinks they are? Also depending on how you look at it, Nassib technically did not visit pre draft anyways.. Although I added him to the list for obvious reasons.. The other thing I notice about the list is that prospects Manuel, Tuel, Smith, and Scott primarily have speed/athleticism, Nassib, Wilson, Jones, and Barkley's main attribute is accuracy, and Bray and Glennon's is primarily arm strength. I think when you look deeper into the lists you can find 3 "types" of players that they are targeting. I think that the guys that seem most ready to play are the accurate passers, the guys that will get the most media attention and give the most versatility are the athletes, and the guys that have the best long term upside are the arm strength guys.. Before Kolb signed, I would have bet that they were going from the accurate passer list since we desperately needed someone to start this season. Now I think anybody is in play although I don't consider Tuel a legit candidate to start anytime soon for no particular reason.. I think that it basically breaks down to they can get an accurate passer or a playmaker style Qb that might be able to play right away in rds 1-2. In rds 3-4 they can get a prototypical strength/size Qb prospect or a similar gifted backup to a speedy 1st rd selection (Smith or Manuel) and depending on the rd drafted it will determine what Nix expects out of the QB this season. If he thinks he can upgrade Kolb then he will early, if he thinks Kolb is going to win the job this year, then he will wait it out and hope he looks like a genius in 2-3 years.. No matter how you slice it, you can count on the bills drafting a Qb in the first 3 rds somewhere.

Wide Receiver: Nix has been on record so many times now that we have to take his word for it, he wants to add a WR that is open even when he is not open... So I assume that means he likes Justin Hunter from Tennessee. Ryan Swope and DaRick Rogers are also in play here.. He is the biggest guy on the visit list that has the production to match.. He is borderline rd 1 prospect and could be there at #41.. After looking at the 30 guys on the visit list, I have to admit the thought of drafting Cordarelle Patterson rd 1, Justin Hunter rd 2, and Tyler Bray rd 3 doesn't seem so far fetched.. I know its crazy but it seems like it could work! Other than that, the Scouts have repeatedly said that this is a deep draft for WR and that we can get a good one rd 2-3. Of the positions they seem to be intent on drafting, WR seems to be one that I believe will be a top 3 rd selection for sure.. To me the fact that Buddy Nix said he sees Stevie as a good candidate to play slot means that a slot style WR is just as much in play, but I would be highly shocked to see Tavon Austin selected at 8 overall by Buffalo. I would dance for joy if I'm proven wrong on this..

Linebacker: It is apparent that the team is moving to a 3-4. Call it a hybrid all you want, we are 3-4 team now. The only thing is we prolly will use 4 D lineman on all passing situations and when we do that all of our outside LB pretty much turn into DE.. Which makes our ILB more cover guys than thumpers. This is why Bradham is getting a bit of pre season hype. Sheppard is very athletic and seems perfectly suited to come out when Bryan Scott comes in so we shouldn't be concerned about his limitations as much as we could be.. Scott is great at what he does.. Looking at the list, if we go OLB it will be a high selection and it will be for pass rush. I think that the signing of Manny Lawson helps alleviate the pressure to nab up a Stud OLB. I see Mario Williams Starting at Rush OLB and Manny Lawson starting opposite him wherever Mario lines up.. Mark Anderson is the backup to both and a DE in passing situations. SO, if you draft OLB, he better be pretty darn good! I'm not opposed to it at all.. ILB seems to be a little more of a need since our ILB are also OLB in a 4-3 setting besides lawson who plays OLB in 3-4 amd 4-3. So if they draft a ILB the prospects they have brought in are fast and can cover, so expect any LB selection to focus on speed and coverage ability if its a ILB.. Sheppard is our thumper, and we could technically do without a thumper, Bradham and Scott are too valuable in todays NFL, the new LB will be more Bradham like than Sheppard like... Virtually no chance of OLB going to buffalo once rd 1 is over unless there is some sleeper Buddy is hiding. ILB comes into play starting RD 2 and lasting til rd 5 prolly...

Safety: I see Vaccaro as brought in only to measure the difference between the other 4 late rd safety guys that were brought in. My guess is by Nix comments about there being 4-6 great safeties and this being the best safety class in a decade makes me think that Vaccaro is totally out of play at 8. My guess is Safety starts to come into consideration rds 4 through 6. I like the idea of the 6-4 guy from richmond the most.. Any way you look at it, unless you project Byrd as SS in this Defense we will be drafting a SS type over a FS type.

Now for the other pick(s). I think that they will draft a CB somewhere in this draft and I think that there will more than likely be a TE drafted in this draft. Here is my mock draft based on my evaluation of the pre draft process..

RD 1 QB- it will be one of the 4 guys out of Nassib, Barkley, Manuel, and Smith in order from most to least likely in my opinion.. If its not QB than it will be WR Cordarelle Patterson or OLB Dion Jordan or OLB Barkevious Mingo..

RD 2 WR- My guess is that WR and QB are taken by the Bills in the first 2 rds somehow. Unless its an OLB rd 1 , then I think WR and QB are the next 2 picks somehow someway. Justin Hunter WR Tennesee would be the perfect fit if they go QB rd 1. As far as the QB prospects go, any of the 4 first rd prospects I mentioned could potentially slide, if they all fall we start to consider Tyler Wilson, and maybe Mike Glennon as potential rd 2 picks here. Hypothetically speaking, one of the top 4 guys should still be on the board here..

RD 3 ILB/CB/WR/QB- Well the fast cover ILB/4-3 LB types will be starting to fly off the board in rd 3 so its now or never (maybe rd 4 still) if you plan on adding competition to the starting group. CB is a strong possibility here even though Nix didn't bring in any visitors at the position. As I said before if Qb has not been taken yet it will be the pick here almost for sure, for no better reason than Nix saying that if you thing you like a guy in rd 3 than you better take him rd 2.. I think Bray and Scott come into the equation here and more than likely Glennon will still be on the board with a slim possibility of Wilson being the guy this late.. WR looks strong here still, which is one reason the Bills could end up with that OLB rd 1.. It makes me think Millner is in the mix rd 1 , but I don't see it since he didn't visit...

RD 4 Look at rd 3 and ad TE and Safety to the mix and take out QB and WR... Seems to me that the TE and safety prospects that were brought in are guys that might me available still about this time. If we are lucky they can grab either a solid CB here or somebody to add to the secondary. More than likely someone we never heard of before, one of Buddies specialties..

RD 5-6 Rd 5 -6 seems to be the place for the Safety and TE to be drafted. Best available at the positions..

Not that I made any really bold predictions here, but I think that all of this is relevant to what is going to happen this weekend!

[DDD]

Bottum line: Nobody knows who the Bills will pick except Nix and even that may change on what happens with picks 1-7.

[RealityCheck]

I am imagining a situation where the Bills are in Levi Brown territory but will make the pick in the 3rd or 4th. When the Jets traded up for Sanchez I was elated. They took a team that simply needed a QB as the last piece to put them over the top and chose poorly while losing multiple picks. I can't imagine any of these QBs on any current team winning a Super Bowl. Understand that as a fan whoever they pick will get my support. I just think that if you look at all of these guys as the developmental QBs that many think they are, perhaps they will pick a guy with some prototypical measurables and see who falls to them. Maybe the 2nd round would be a good spot to see who falls through. The first pick needs to be an immediate impact player, or at least that is the goal.

[DreamOnDan]

I'm kinda hoping that Dion Jordan Lasts to 8 after doing all the research.. Maybe we can end up with Jordan, Hunter or Rogers, and Wilson, Bray or Glennon in rds 1, 2, 3...

[Mango]

I think the visits from multiple Tennessee players is more for getting a better read on Tyler Bray than anything else. The question is do they like Tyler Bray after meeting with his supporting cast.

[DreamOnDan]

Good point Mango! I have long been thinking Bray is NIX guy. He is from the SEC. With Kolb here, it is set up perfect to draft Bray...

[C.Biscuit97]

Good point Mango! I have long been thinking Bray is NIX guy. He is from the SEC. With Kolb here, it is set up perfect to draft Bray...

 

Nice work but I really hope it's not Bray. If he really is a douche, that won't translate well in the NFL. Guys in the pros don't like cocky rookies.

[RealityCheck]

Nice work but I really hope it's not Bray. If he really is a douche, that won't translate well in the NFL. Guys in the pros don't like cocky rookies.

That notion is way overblown. Besides,even if that were true, he would only be a rookie for one year. If you are going to get a developmental player, he at least has some tools to work with.

[DreamOnDan]

agreed, that sports science thing they did with EJ manuel is impressive, he is ACC, My Guess is Nix will select from either SEC or ACC.. that leaves Bray, Wilson, and manuel as the leading candidates..