Anyone like this mock? EJ Manuel/Robert Woods/TE from Rice

[Big C]

I know Sanchez is struggling, but they've already invested, what, 8 mil on the guy and they have more holes than we do right now. I don't think they're going QB at #9 or #13.

[Maury Ballstein]

To get a top 3 qb and cb would be impressive.....let's go out there and beat Tom Brady.

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

If you read Buddy's comment...No Manuel...

 

What comment?

[JohnC]

I hear you on the Gailey thing, but that got me wondering how much input the coaches have. I mean, Gailey was running the pistol, yet they passed on Kaepernick who put up insane numbers out of the pistol. The only way that makes any sense to me is if they thought he (or some other QB they liked) would be there in the 3rd.

 

I also agree something is up w Manuel accepting the invite, but that's likely independent of Barkley declining. Barkley may simply just not want to go, regardless of where he thinks he might be drafted.

 

And I love that mock, except I think the 2nd rd pick will be Justin Hunter.

 

I don't know how the front office viewed Kaepernick. When Nix took over the football operation he wanted to bolster the roster before addressing the qb issue. He and Chan felt that Fitz was adequate for the short and medium term. Nix has stated that he was very familiar with Russell Wilson and what he could do. He thought that he could select him later in the draft. Bad miscalculation. He now says that with qbs you have to get them earlier rather than later because of the demand to find someone to play the position. Last year on the radio Buddy said that he had his eyes on a particular qb but someone else took the player ahead of us. When asked who it was he refused to answer. The speculation was that he was eying either Wilson or Cousins in the fourth round.

[uncle flap]

I don't know how the front office viewed Kaepernick. When Nix took over the football operation he wanted to bolster the roster before addressing the qb issue. He and Chan felt that Fitz was adequate for the short and medium term. Nix has stated that he was very familiar with Russell Wilson and what he could do. He thought that he could select him later in the draft. Bad miscalculation. He now says that with qbs you have to get them earlier rather than later because of the demand to find someone to play the position. Last year on the radio Buddy said that he had his eyes on a particular qb but someone else took the player ahead of us. When asked who it was he refused to answer. The speculation was that he was eying either Wilson or Cousins in the fourth round.

 

Yeah I dont know either. There were plenty of "knocks" on Kaepernick- gimmick offense vs sub par competition for starters. And I believe they were high on Ponder and when Minnesota "reached" for him, that may have caught the Bills off guard and forced them to adjust their draft strategy on the fly.

 

As far as employing a strategy that basically excludes taking QBs for the sake of bolstering the rest of the roster... ugh. I mean in theory, that's great, but since you can't win championships without a top tier QB, you've got to take some flyers.

 

I know its been discussed ad nauseum that there weren't actually all that many QBs that they passed on that have worked out, but without the benefit of hindsight, I find it hard to fathom that Nix (and everyone who has input) is just now figuring out that QBs draft positions are inflated. "Now" you have to get them earlier because of the demand? Give me a break. I realize in relatively recent history the league has become more passing oriented, but it's not like you're noticing a subtle trend about free safeties going higher- it's the most important position in the game and has been for some time. Yes QBs are going increasingly higher, but its not as if this trend appeared overnight out of thin air.

 

Considering the organizations affinity for drafting RBs early, Occam's razor would dictate Ralph is meddling and would rather put the team on an RB's back than a QB's arm. Which would also make him a moron if true, since the Bills' rare bouts with success have been courtesy of top tier QBs. Maybe Ralph is just waiting for another QB prospect with the initials JK.

 

Sorry- back to the topic:

 

I also was going to mention based on Buddy "admitting" they have to reach for a QB, I am almost expecting Manuel to be the pick at #8. As others have posted, the Jets are picking at #9 and they've got almost identical needs. The Bills don't want to be doubly screwed by losing out on their guy AND having him go to a division rival.

Edited April 20, 2013 by uncle flap

[Kelly the Dog]

I also was going to mention based on Buddy "admitting" they have to reach for a QB, I am almost expecting Manuel to be the pick at #8. As others have posted, the Jets are picking at #9 and they've got almost identical needs. The Bills don't want to be doubly screwed by losing out on their guy AND having him go to a division rival.

I don't have a strong feeling either way, but I wonder if the Jets top brass not including Rex Ryan think of Ryan as a lame duck coach the way outsiders do, and only give him, say, a 50-50 chance of returning after this year. If that is the case, I could easily see them passing on a QB early and trying to bolster their roster at other positions, and next year when a new guy may come in, and a new offensive system installed, draft the new franchise guy. Look at the way the Browns were kind of stuck with Weedon.

[uncle flap]

I don't have a strong feeling either way, but I wonder if the Jets top brass not including Rex Ryan think of Ryan as a lame duck coach the way outsiders do, and only give him, say, a 50-50 chance of returning after this year. If that is the case, I could easily see them passing on a QB early and trying to bolster their roster at other positions, and next year when a new guy may come in, and a new offensive system installed, draft the new franchise guy. Look at the way the Browns were kind of stuck with Weedon.

 

I think that's a completely valid viewpoint, but I think every team wants continuity and doesn't operate with that type of mindset re: possible coaching changes.

 

There's definitely something to be said for not reaching for a QB and playing it safe but I don't think "next year" plays a part in a front office's mind except in terms of contracts expiring. Too much can change in 12 months, so you might as well set yourself up the best you can. Expect the best and prepare for the worst. If you're only preparing for the worst, you've already admitted defeat. No team is outright tanking. Colts, Shmolts, that was getting (un)lucky. The "Any Given Sunday" mentality, for better or worse, is going to have teams doing everything they can to win now AND later.

 

Like I said, I do think it's a valid viewpoint, but with the relative parity, the salary cap, and the fact that ANY team can get hot and make some noise, I can't see a competent FO taking that approach. Note: I did say competent.

 

Baseball, OTOH, has the Astros, whose FO is upfront about tanking/rebuilding/saving $. But there's a huge difference between how the MLB operates and the NFL. For starters, playing ten times as many games neutralizes the likelihood of a "bad" team getting hot and taking out the big boys. In the NFL you can get in the playoffs winning just over half of your games. Win 3-4 more, and you've got a championship. Why not go all in each year?

[Koufax]

I have some concerns about his accuracy and the likelihood he is a playoff winning franchise QB, but I don't follow college football as closely as many people here, so I am open to being wrong on that.

 

What I take issue with is people talking about anybody being a reach at #8. There is no franchise QB who is a reach at #8. And if you are taking a guy you don't think will have a good shot at being a franchise QB he shouldn't be anywhere in the first or half of the second because that is too high for a backup QB. And thinking that a franchise QB is poorly enough thought of by the other 29 teams that he falls a full round really indicates some serious doubts of whether he really is a franchise QB.

 

Manuel and Nassib are instead RISKS not REACHES. A reach is when you take a player who is useful but not valuable enough to warrant his round and he should have been picked later or not worried about because there is more value elsewhere with that pick. Manuel, Nassib, and Barkley are all either a great pick at #8, or a waste of a #41. I don't see any scenario where they are good enough for a #41 but not worth a #8. The only reason to wait is if you think the chances of them being a franchise QB are low enough that sure thing at another position is more valuable. I just don't see that at #8 and think the blue chip too valuable certainties to pass on are off the board at that point.

 

Guys like Brees, Kaepernick, Dalton who are taken in the second round and succeed are all in the first four picks of the second round. Meaning those teams would have had to use a top four pick on them to pick them a round earlier, when a roll of the dice would be more costly.

 

Don't get me wrong, I would love to see our franchise QB at #41, or see us trade back into the first or down within the first and still get our guy. But if there is someone who we think has any reasonable chance of being our franchise guy, waiting and hoping he slides instead of getting him at #8 is really dumb. And if we don't think someone will be our guy but are just rolling the dice or adding depth, I would rather not waste #41 on that either and settle for a 3rd round Mallet type.

 

I will be very happy if the team picks Nassib, Manuel, Smith, or Barkley at #8, because it means that our coaching staff and talent evaluators think that guy has a good shot at being our franchise QB, and right now that is our black hole, and I trust their evaluation a lot better than mine. I won't care at all if he might have been available later, etc. Maximizing draft value is awesome across just about every position, but QB is something special, and if anybody seems like a reasonable chance at #8 take them. If not I don't know why we would spend #41 on them.

[Kelly the Dog]

I think that's a completely valid viewpoint, but I think every team wants continuity and doesn't operate with that type of mindset re: possible coaching changes.

 

There's definitely something to be said for not reaching for a QB and playing it safe but I don't think "next year" plays a part in a front office's mind except in terms of contracts expiring. Too much can change in 12 months, so you might as well set yourself up the best you can. Expect the best and prepare for the worst. If you're only preparing for the worst, you've already admitted defeat. No team is outright tanking. Colts, Shmolts, that was getting (un)lucky. The "Any Given Sunday" mentality, for better or worse, is going to have teams doing everything they can to win now AND later.

 

Like I said, I do think it's a valid viewpoint, but with the relative parity, the salary cap, and the fact that ANY team can get hot and make some noise, I can't see a competent FO taking that approach. Note: I did say competent.

 

Baseball, OTOH, has the Astros, whose FO is upfront about tanking/rebuilding/saving $. But there's a huge difference between how the MLB operates and the NFL. For starters, playing ten times as many games neutralizes the likelihood of a "bad" team getting hot and taking out the big boys. In the NFL you can get in the playoffs winning just over half of your games. Win 3-4 more, and you've got a championship. Why not go all in each year?

That's a good, fair response. What factors in though is all of the warts on this year's QB class. If you thought you had a franchise guy, sure, you would take him regardless of the lame duck coach. I'm just thinking of this year, especially when the Jets have to pay Dirty Sanchez 8mil, and there is going to be a damn good player available at #9. They need guys at pretty much every position. They have a worse roster than we do.

[uncle flap]

That's a good, fair response. What factors in though is all of the warts on this year's QB class. If you thought you had a franchise guy, sure, you would take him regardless of the lame duck coach. I'm just thinking of this year, especially when the Jets have to pay Dirty Sanchez 8mil, and there is going to be a damn good player available at #9. They need guys at pretty much every position. They have a worse roster than we do.

 

Oh, I definitely agree. The prudent thing for any team in general, and especially this year's Jets, is to get the "safe" thing when you can and hope for the best later.

 

However, at a certain point you have to start taking risks. Getting Kolb may mean that the Bills don't have to take that first round risk this year, but since the only developmental guy they have is Aaron "Andy" Corp, they may be feeling a bit more of the pressure. Especially with a roster that IMO is a lot better than most give credit for. What's the sense of building a solid team (and signing the likes of Super Mario) if by the time a QB hits his prime, you've lost half the roster you started with? They've got to start taking flyers and the sooner the better.

 

Up until pretty recently my ideal draft had a stud defender at #8 and Manuel at #41. If not Manuel, Nassib, Barkley, or whomever they like best. But after some more thought, I think its too risky to wait on a QB unless they truly dont think any of the QBs available at 8 at worth it. Buddy says there should be 2-3 franchise QBs. They should have a shot at at least one of them at 8. It's far less likely they'll get that shot at 41.

 

Aside from QB, the biggest holes IMO are WR and TE. Both deep positions in this draft. Get those guys in the 2nd and 3rd/4th and get your QB in the first. If he busts so be it, but at least they didn't miss their opportunity.

Edited April 21, 2013 by uncle flap

[San Jose Bills Fan]

I wonder if the Jets top brass not including Rex Ryan think of Ryan as a lame duck coach the way outsiders do, and only give him, say, a 50-50 chance of returning after this year. If that is the case, I could easily see them passing on a QB early and trying to bolster their roster at other positions, and next year when a new guy may come in, and a new offensive system installed, draft the new franchise guy. Look at the way the Browns were kind of stuck with Weedon.

 

This is the only valid reason I could see for the Jets to NOT select a QB because I think it's obvious they need one. As far as new coaching staffs getting saddled with highly drafted QBs not of their choice, besides Weeden, Blaine Gabbert is an example twice over.

 

Back to the Jets, their situation is so bizarre it's really hard to say what will happen. The retention of Rex in spite of a new GM muddles things quite a bit.

 

FWIW, Marty Mornhinweg and David Lee take over for Tony Sparano and Matt Cavanaugh. Mornhinweg coached under Steve Mariucci and spent his professional development with the Packers, Niners, and later working for Andy Reid.

 

Without a doubt they'll be running a West Coast Offense. This would seem to make guys like Nassib and Barkley more likely fits for the Jets.

 

On the other hand, none of us quite know what the Bills offense will look like.

 

Marrone's experience with the Saints mixed with Hackett's experience with the West Coast Offense and the K-Gun make the identity of the Bills offense a bit of a mystery.

[Kelly the Dog]

This is the only valid reason I could see for the Jets to NOT select a QB because I think it's obvious they need one. As far as new coaching staffs getting saddled with highly drafted QBs not of their choice, besides Weeden, Blaine Gabbert is an example twice over.

 

Back to the Jets, their situation is so bizarre it's really hard to say what will happen. The retention of Rex in spite of a new GM muddles things quite a bit.

 

FWIW, Marty Mornhinweg and David Lee take over for Tony Sparano and Matt Cavanaugh. Mornhinweg coached under Steve Mariucci and spent his professional development with the Packers, Niners, and later working for Andy Reid.

 

Without a doubt they'll be running a West Coast Offense. This would seem to make guys like Nassib and Barkley more likely fits for the Jets.

 

On the other hand, none of us quite know what the Bills offense will look like.

 

Marrone's experience with the Saints mixed with Hackett's experience with the West Coast Offense and the K-Gun make the identity of the Bills offense a bit of a mystery.

True, but... if a new guy comes in, Mornhinweg is gone. And they would be saddled, if they draft a WCO QB like, say, Barkley, to hire a HC or at least a OC that ran a WCO. That would drastically reduce the candidates.