STATS, Incs. and Analytics

[JPS]

I was listening to John Pollard of Stats, Inc on Sirius NFL Radio and, based on what he deemed 'analytics', he ranked the QBs in the 2012 and 2013 draft. Here's how he ranked them:

 

1. RG3

2. Luck

3. Geno

4. Wilson

5. Tannehill

6. Manuel (I think - this is from memory and it wasn't Barkley)

7. Foles

8. Nassib

 

So....are the Bills into analytics or what? If so, it's either Geno or EJ. Bad news for Barkley fans. Pollard said he's working with a number of NFL teams leading up to the draft, but did not name any. Metrics were discussed on QBs, CBs, LBs and Pass Rushers. Just thought it was interesting based on RB's statements about analytics.

Edited April 20, 2013 by JPS

[dave mcbride]

Good post and thread. Any idea on the metrics?

[JPS]

Good post and thread. Any idea on the metrics?

Since it was a conversation, it was a bit hard to nail that down. I checked on the Stats Inc web site and didn't see a reference and couldn't find it elsewhere. But it was detailed. He broke it down and showed how some QBs were "right handed" in that he was very effective to the right, but horrible to the left. Hot zones. Length of passes. Strength of competition. I loved it.

[Rubes]

So synthesizing all that the various people are saying, we can conclude that this year's draft class probably has a few solid starting QBs in it, but nobody can really say which ones they are.

[Dr. Trooth]

The metrics capture only those things that are measureable. It does not take into account a QBs ability to read a defense' how quickly he processes that, the reaction time from read to release, vision, relative talent around the QB or a QBs resolve, mental toughness, passion for his trade.

 

I'm sure if this was used back then, Leinart and Vince Young would be off the charts.

 

It is just one valueable tool in the evaluation process. It is not intended to be used as a standalone gauge of a QBs measure. It has to be used along with all of the other tools available in the evaluation.

Edited April 20, 2013 by Dr. Trooth

[hondo in seattle]

The metrics capture only those things that are measureable. It does not take into account a QBs ability to read a defense' how quickly he processes that, the reaction time from read to release, vision, relative talent around the QB or a QBs resolve, mental toughness, passion for his trade.

 

I'm sure if this was used back then, Leinart and Vince Young would be off the charts.

 

It is just one valueable tool in the evaluation process. It is not intended to be used as a standalone gauge of a QBs measure. It has to be used along with all of the other tools available in the evaluation.

 

I think analytics do account for most of these qualities to a certain extent. A QB's stats wouldn't be as good if he wasn't good at these.

 

But, to support your argument, metrics can't measure leadership. Nor do they fully account for how much the QB's stats benefit from the coach's scheme.

[Doc]

Not sure how Tannehill ranks so high. In 2011, he had a 61.6% completion percentage, 7.1 YPA, and slightly less than 2:1 TD:INT ratio, and his team went 7-6. Hardly great stats. The jury is still out on him and Foles. Luck and RGIII were no-brainers. But I wonder where he would have drafted Wilson if you asked him prior to the draft, much less if he'd taken him over Tannehill?

 

Basically these guys are shooting at a dartboard blindfolded. There isn't a single team that can consistently pick a good QB.

 

I'd also like to know who the analytics said might have been a good QB in 2010.

Edited April 20, 2013 by Doc

[Kellyto83TD]

That chart shows why you should NOT do that with Quarterbacks. Geno shouldn't be drafted high at all

[Lurker]

A QB's stats wouldn't be as good if he wasn't good at these.

 

Nor do they fully account for how much the QB's stats benefit from the coach's scheme.

IMO, your second statement here--particularly in today's college game, where the talent level is much more widely disbursed--is a fundamental driver of the first.

 

Scheme is driving more and more college offenses (and the stats they put up), which makes the translation of QB play to the NFL game more difficult. This QB class seems particularly scheme-heavy, which is why there's such a lack of consensus on who the top prospects are.

[KeisterHollow]

Although Barkley, Nassib, and Manuel all operated NFL type offenses. So, as far as those 3 are concerned - if there are more, I'm not as up on them - and, I think those are the Bills top 3 QB's, along with Wilson - I think you can project a little easier how well they'll be able to do.

[JPS]

Nobody is biting on the point that struck me.....If the Bills are committed to analytics, the only 3 possible QBs are Geno, EJ and Nassib. Or maybe they trade for Foles.