The Big Cat Posted April 17, 2013 Posted April 17, 2013 Well, last year's draft is shaping up to be pretty darn good: starting-caliber CB who should keep getting better, starting LT who acquitted himself nicely, aggressive/athletic LB with speed, all in the first 4 rounds. And the 2011 draft doesn't look half bad either, and that's the only body of evidence we have to evaluate the scouting staff and GM. SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO....
thebandit27 Posted April 17, 2013 Posted April 17, 2013 And the 2011 draft doesn't look half bad either, and that's the only body of evidence we have to evaluate the scouting staff and GM. SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO.... I'm less enthused by the 2011 draft...Dareus got on my poo list with his less-than-inspired play last year, Williams was brutal, Sheppard was lousy, and Hairston didn't blow me away. Now, that can all change this year if Dareus gets motivated (and loses about 20 lbs), Williams' position switch pays off, Sheppard acclimates to the new scheme, and Hairston takes ownership of a starting role, so the jury is still out.
Cash Posted April 17, 2013 Posted April 17, 2013 Well, talent v coaching = chicken v egg, so between you and me, it's just a difference of opinion. I happen to believe that the league-wide, team-to-team talent level is a bell curve. And that no team has an abundance of elite talent, just like no team has an abundance of ****ty talent. I do agree with that. But keep in mind that the smaller the differences between teams' talent levels, the more important marginal differences become. Having said that, I also believe that the talent-level on our team IS higher than it was under Jauron when when had DiGorgio starting at MLB, Anthony Thomas as our second running back, Robert mother !@#$ing Royal as our best tight end, and defensive/offensive lines that were just plain terrible. But that's not a fair comparison. Comparing the 2013 Bills to the 2006 Bills that Jauron first inherited is confusing the issue. A much better comparison for Nix as GM would be the 2009 Bills that got Jauron fired. Remember, this is the team about which Ralph Wilson said, "the cupboard was bare." (Which Nix then contradicted by saying "we're not that far way," but whatever. The point is that if Nix is a good GM, the team should be better now than it was when he was hired.) That team's strength on offense was RB, with a 28-year-old Fred Jackson and a 24-year-old Marshawn Lynch. Quarterback was a bit unsettled, with Ryan Fitzpatrick and Trent Edwards battling for the job. To be fair to you, I'll put aside the gimmick signing of Terrell Owens, and call the WR corps Lee Evans and a bunch of unproven nobodies - including Stevie Johnson. TE was another weak area, but I'd say that after Chandler, none of our current TEs would be a lock for a roster spot over any of our 2009 TEs. The O-line was definitely weaker than the 2012 O-line, but I won't stack it up against the 2013 O-line until we know who the starters are. In 2009, we started shaky-but-not terrible Demetress Bell at LT, Kirk Chambers at RT (yikes), Geoff Hangartner at C (not great, not terrible), and 2 rookies at the guard spots: Andy Levitre and Eric Wood. Both played very well for rookies and showed a lot of promise. On D, the strength was in the secondary. The corners were McGee before he'd gotten too hurt, Drayton Florence back when he could play, and 2nd-year-man Leodis McKelvin. At safety, we had future crayonz All-Pro Donte Whitner and promising rookie Jairus Byrd, with George Wilson filling in very capably off the bench. The linebacking corps was weak once Kawika Mitchell got hurt, with Keith Ellison and Bryan Scott starting next to Paul Pozluszny. Not much depth there, either. Across the D-line, we had a fading-but-still-effective Aaron Schobel, a just-entering-his prime Kyle Williams, former Pro Bowler Marcus Stroud, and Chris "Locker Room" Kelsay. The top backups were Spencer Johnson at DT and rookie Aaron Maybin at DE. Not the greatest, but better than most of us probably remember. Lastly, on special teams, we had the MVPunter, Lindell with more leg strength than now, Roscoe returning punts, and Fred Jackson returning kicks. Anyway, I agree that we're stronger in the trenches now than when Nix was hired, probably even with the loss of Levitre. Nix brought in Urbik, Pears, Hairston, Glenn on O-line and Anderson, M.Williams, Dareus, and Branch on D-line. However, I find it hard to accept that we have more talent overall, because I keep circling around to the fact that we've gone 16-32 under Nix, and that's after replacing a really bad head coach. I refuse to retroactively think that Jauron was any good at winning games. Maybe the answer's something like, "yeah, but Gailey was actually much worse than Jauron, so even though Jauron was bad and the talent has gone up, the record was artificially bad." And I hope that's true, I guess, because I'm sick of watching losing teams. But if Gailey was such a legendarily bad coach, what does that say about the guy who hired him and gave him 3 years on the job? If he was that bad at assessing coach competence during Gailey's hiring process and tenure, why should I expect him to be better now? Furthermore, Nix has been talking about drafting a QB since the lead-up to the 2010 draft, and has reiterated his desire for a "10-12 year starter" prior to every draft, even after signing Fitz to that big extension. And in that time, a number of successful QBs have entered the league through the draft, but the only pick he's made was 7th-rounder Levi Brown. Now, he didn't have much of a shot at Luck or Newton, and it can be argued that the asking price for RG3 was too high. But for whatever reason, Nix took Aaron Williams over 2 QBs who have had success as starters, and TJ Graham over another one. Maybe he loved those QBs but mistakenly thought he could get them all a round later. Maybe he thought all of them were bad fits for Gailey's scheme. I don't know. But I'm not filled with confidence at Nix's ability to evaluate QB prospects. The only thing I can say in his favor is that his 2011 post-draft comments seemed to imply that he'd have taken Cam Newton if he could've. Unlike Luck and RG3, Newton was a controversial prospect with a lot of doubters/red flags, so I'll count that evaluation as a feather in Nix's cap. Other than that, he's batting .000 with a lot of backwards Ks.
FleaMoulds80 Posted April 17, 2013 Posted April 17, 2013 If we draft Geno Smith, Matt Barkley, Mike Glennon, Ryan Nassib, EJ Manuel, Tyler Wilson, Tyler Bray, Landry Jones, Zac Dysert, Matt Scott, Sean Renfree, Collin Klein, Brad Sorensen, James Vandenberg, Jordan Rodgers, Alex Carder, Ryan Aplin, Ryan Katz, Jeff Tuel, Kyle Padron, Dayne Crist, Seth Doege, or Colby Cameron, at any point in the draft I'll be PISSED
eball Posted April 17, 2013 Posted April 17, 2013 If we draft Geno Smith, Matt Barkley, Mike Glennon, Ryan Nassib, EJ Manuel, Tyler Wilson, Tyler Bray, Landry Jones, Zac Dysert, Matt Scott, Sean Renfree, Collin Klein, Brad Sorensen, James Vandenberg, Jordan Rodgers, Alex Carder, Ryan Aplin, Ryan Katz, Jeff Tuel, Kyle Padron, Dayne Crist, Seth Doege, or Colby Cameron, at any point in the draft I'll be PISSED If we don't draft Geno Smith, Matt Barkley, Mike Glennon, Ryan Nassib, EJ Manuel, Tyler Wilson, Tyler Bray, Landry Jones, Zac Dysert, Matt Scott, Sean Renfree, Collin Klein, Brad Sorensen, James Vandenberg, Jordan Rodgers, Alex Carder, Ryan Aplin, Ryan Katz, Jeff Tuel, Kyle Padron, Dayne Crist, Seth Doege, or Colby Cameron, at any point in the draft I'll be PISSED
RyanC883 Posted April 17, 2013 Posted April 17, 2013 QB, WR, TE,CB After listening to all the buddy interviews he seems to feel our roster is OK at G and LB. ( LB likely now includes Mark Anderson and Mario Williams as 3-4 pass rushers) I think these will be the positions of our top 4 picks. No doubt QB at 8 (Nassib or Barkley) then WR, CB,TE not necessarily in that order. If this is true, then I hope it goes like this: RD1: X. Rhodes--CB, FSU. (or Millner if still available) RD 2: T Williams--WR Baylor; RD 3 V. McDonald, TE--Rice; RD 4: M. Scott, QB-AZ; RD 5: D. Robinson--WR--Michigan (has the ability to become T. Austin good); RD 6: C. Gragg--TE ARK; then M. Matui--ILB PSU as UDFA.
BillsVet Posted April 17, 2013 Posted April 17, 2013 I kind of wish Buddy would shut his mouth. While I often appreciate his honesty, and it makes it more fun as a fan to have an indication about what their strategy will be, it's free information that he gives out to his competitors. I find it stupid. Buddy was pretty silent after his meltdown on WGR in November. Thought I'd read someone talked to him about keeping quiet. But yes, Nix isn't the most adept at subterfuge and tends to shoot too much from the hip. I'm sure Berchtold is working untold hours this off-season keeping their hopefully lame duck GM from saying anything advantageous to the other teams. Of course, when you put yourself into a hole at QB, talk about taking one, never do, and then have your back against the wall it's not hard to figure out what Buffalo will do. That is, unless Nix is now a figurehead and others are making decisions now. Who knows.
NoSaint Posted April 17, 2013 Posted April 17, 2013 I guess that if I am looking for a franchise QB at 8 I am looking for a safe pick. I'm not saying that Andrew Luck's are easy to come by but there was no chance of him being a bust. I feel like in this class there will be a couple of these guys that can play and a couple of disasters. If you are wrong it sets you back much further. There are a few in next years class that I think are safer. If they go QB at 8 you can forget about those guys next year even if the guy we draft is a dumpster fire. I would like to get someone in the 2nd and if he isn't the franchise guy capitalize next year. only place i disagree, and its a big one, is that you get a safe qb EVER in the draft outside of having the number 1 pick once every couple of years when that guy comes around. if we are picking in this area any given year going forward, the guys will not be perfect prospects - if they were they would be long gone.
San Jose Bills Fan Posted April 18, 2013 Posted April 18, 2013 From everything he said last year, you couldn't really have predicted we would draft Gilmore, Glenn, TJ Graham and Bradham with the first four picks. Glenn would have been the only one and he better have taken him when he was surprisingly available. All of this criticism about Buddy not being a good liar and giving away too much info is a bunch of bunk. Like Kelly points out here, almost no one was predicting Stephon Gilmore. As someone else suggested upthread, if you think Nix tipped his hand, feel free to point out what the Bills will do at #8. The predictions you see on this board range EVERYWHERE. That means that NO ONE knows what the Bills are gonna do.
NoSaint Posted April 18, 2013 Posted April 18, 2013 All of this criticism about Buddy not being a good liar and giving away too much info is a bunch of bunk. Like Kelly points out here, almost no one was predicting Stephon Gilmore. As someone else suggested upthread, if you think Nix tipped his hand, feel free to point out what the Bills will do at #8. The predictions you see on this board range EVERYWHERE. That means that NO ONE knows what the Bills are gonna do. If I recall, by draft day Gilmore and Glenn were on just about every short list for us in round 1. With kuechly, Barron (a late entrant) and Blackmon being the 3 that went ahead and Floyd being the only other guy getting a lot of talk that was still on the board.
San Jose Bills Fan Posted April 18, 2013 Posted April 18, 2013 If I recall, by draft day Gilmore and Glenn were on just about every short list for us in round 1. With kuechly, Barron (a late entrant) and Blackmon being the 3 that went ahead and Floyd being the only other guy getting a lot of talk that was still on the board. He was one of the candidates based on a pool of players + process of elimination but there were not a lot of people saying "Mark my words, the Bills are gonna draft Gilmore." Gilmore got talked up just like a lot of guys but not as much as Glenn, Reiff, Martin, or even DeCastro or the Alabama linebackers.
NoSaint Posted April 18, 2013 Posted April 18, 2013 (edited) He was one of the candidates based on a pool of players + process of elimination but there were not a lot of people saying "Mark my words, the Bills are gonna draft Gilmore." Gilmore got talked up just like a lot of guys but not as much as Glenn, Reiff, Martin, or even DeCastro or the Alabama linebackers. Perhaps I'm projecting based on my own, and the guys I tend to read closer on here instead of the wider net. I don't think most thought reiff, the bama backers, or a guard were top ten prospects for us despite need based musings. If you were strongly following buddy it seemed apparent he liked Barron, Gilmore and Glenn on draft day, then add on that we really needed a WR and there were two going in that range that we had no idea what he thought of (but high skepticism of floyd) and LK could be a value pick if he was there still. I made a few bucks betting Gilmore that night Moving into this last week I'm feeling like Austin might be high, geno (or qbs in general) are a wildcard like the WRs were last year (need but no real read on who... Though ej is starting to feel a lot like Gilmore in my book shooting up from the round two talk early to get a lot of smoke around our pick), milliner is likely on the board high, don't think warmack or the inside backers are on at 8, can't read the edge rushers well but don't get the impression they are loved and with Mario, Anderson and Lawson I don't see an olb... If we dont drop back Geno, EJ, tavon, milliner are the 4 I keep circling around with chatter meets need meets value meets fit. Maaaaaybe a safety. Edited April 18, 2013 by NoSaint
Coach Tuesday Posted April 18, 2013 Posted April 18, 2013 All of this criticism about Buddy not being a good liar and giving away too much info is a bunch of bunk. Like Kelly points out here, almost no one was predicting Stephon Gilmore. As someone else suggested upthread, if you think Nix tipped his hand, feel free to point out what the Bills will do at #8. The predictions you see on this board range EVERYWHERE. That means that NO ONE knows what the Bills are gonna do. I know he is not gonna draft a guard. Why announce that?
Kirby Jackson Posted April 18, 2013 Posted April 18, 2013 (edited) If you are looking for a big surprise I will throw Kenny Vaccaro out there. They LOVED Barron last year and may think that they need another safety regardless of Byrd's future. I am not interested in this because there are some guys that I like in the next tier (especially Reid and Elam). If we are looking for someone a little off the radar I think that Vacarro is more likely than pash rusher and OL. Edited April 18, 2013 by Kirby Jackson
KOKBILLS Posted April 18, 2013 Posted April 18, 2013 (edited) He was one of the candidates based on a pool of players + process of elimination but there were not a lot of people saying "Mark my words, the Bills are gonna draft Gilmore." Gilmore got talked up just like a lot of guys but not as much as Glenn, Reiff, Martin, or even DeCastro or the Alabama linebackers. Before last years Draft I was pretty sure that it was going to come down to Kuechly, Barron, or Gilmore for The Bills...I even started a Poll here to find out who TSW preferred...When it came to our pick, and the other two were gone, I was 100% positive it would be Gilmore...And it was... http://forums.twobil...re/page__st__20 That being said...Assuming Geno is gone, I have absolutely no idea what The Bills will do this year...I know what I want them to do though... Edited April 18, 2013 by KOKBILLS
NoSaint Posted April 18, 2013 Posted April 18, 2013 Before last years Draft I was pretty sure that it was going to come down to Kuechly, Barron, or Gilmore for The Bills...I even started a Poll here to find out who TSW preferred...When it came to our pick, and the other two were gone, I was 100% positive it would be Gilmore...And it was... http://forums.twobil...re/page__st__20 That being said...Assuming Geno is gone, I have absolutely no idea what The Bills will do this year...I know what I want them to do though... 100% agree last year. Floyd was hard to rule out due to huge need but possibly even harder to get on board for due to a complete lack of interest seemingly and it seemed clear we liked Glenn (and we did).... Gilmore was not shocking come the last week. If forced to put money I think he would've been a heavy favorite I don't think that's wildly revisionist history
Kelly the Dog Posted April 18, 2013 Posted April 18, 2013 100% agree last year. Floyd was hard to rule out due to huge need but possibly even harder to get on board for due to a complete lack of interest seemingly and it seemed clear we liked Glenn (and we did).... Gilmore was not shocking come the last week. If forced to put money I think he would've been a heavy favorite I don't think that's wildly revisionist history No, but it was far from an obvious thing. He was one of about five guys. Once the draft started and then Barron was off the board it was fairly easy to guess. But before the draft started, there were all kinds of predictions and expectations and he was one of numerous potential picks. And I think we started this by talking about what Buddy was saying in the weeks before the draft.
Charles Romes Posted April 18, 2013 Posted April 18, 2013 I am not a big fan of QB at 8 because I don't thing that there is a QB worthy of the 8th pick. My thinking is that you are married to this guy for at least a few years. I am really high on next years class and you are not going to pick QB in the 1st in back to back years with the same staff. If you end up with the next Blaine Gabbert you will miss out on some franchise type guys next year and be further from good than you are now. If you took a QB at 41 and he didn't work out you could go QB next year in the first. This makes too much sense. Except that the strategy of using your first round pick year after year to draft a QB until you get one would have won out over whatever the bills have done over the last 15 years.
San Jose Bills Fan Posted April 18, 2013 Posted April 18, 2013 100% agree last year. Floyd was hard to rule out due to huge need but possibly even harder to get on board for due to a complete lack of interest seemingly and it seemed clear we liked Glenn (and we did).... Gilmore was not shocking come the last week. If forced to put money I think he would've been a heavy favorite I don't think that's wildly revisionist history We knew the pool of players that were likely to be taken but it was only through the process of elimination that Gilmore became likely. Had Barron been available he might have been the pick. Same with Kuechly. Same with Blackmon. But by the Bills pick all those guys were gone. Two weeks before the draft, I don't remember any clear consensus as to who the Bills would end up with. No, but it was far from an obvious thing. He was one of about five guys. Once the draft started and then Barron was off the board it was fairly easy to guess. But before the draft started, there were all kinds of predictions and expectations and he was one of numerous potential picks. And I think we started this by talking about what Buddy was saying in the weeks before the draft. Exactly.
NoSaint Posted April 18, 2013 Posted April 18, 2013 (edited) No, but it was far from an obvious thing. He was one of about five guys. Once the draft started and then Barron was off the board it was fairly easy to guess. But before the draft started, there were all kinds of predictions and expectations and he was one of numerous potential picks. And I think we started this by talking about what Buddy was saying in the weeks before the draft. For sure - and I'm saying I think we have a solid start on those 4-5 guys again this year. I don't feel great giving you a hard ranking of them or who will be left at 8 but I'm leaning away from oline, lbs, and Dline... Something like this: 1) geno (good chance gone) 2) ej (very likely there) 3) milliner (likely gone) 4) Austin (likely there) 5) vacarro (likely there) 6) Patterson (doesn't fit the MO but like Floyd a need projected close) Might take 3 through 5 then trade up for ej as a wildcard Would be my rough list 8 days out which I reserve the right to change Last year this is what I would have said on draft day 1) Blackmon (certainly gone) 2) Barron (could last but good chance gone) 3) Gilmore (likely he's there, coin flip between he and.... 4) kuechly (50-50 whether gone, a hair behind Gilmore could have easily been the other way around) 5) Glenn (if they like him at tackle, not as guard - big victory here in the end) 6) Floyd (because we needed a WR bad, but no sign at all the team liked him) Picking midround, its near impossible to pick a guy a week out because once one domino falls out of place it messes up everything behind it but I think you can say things like I don't buy warmack and didnt buy decastro. The bama linebackers weren't real for us last year and I don't think ogletree is this year. I would be surprised by any of the tackles and the edge rushers don't strike me as #8 picks. Buddy's actions, public comments, and some consistent rumors I'm weighing etc... Seem to point towards these evaluations in my opinion so far Edited April 18, 2013 by NoSaint
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