hondo in seattle Posted April 17, 2013 Posted April 17, 2013 Damn right......let's get a Qb and quit messin around I don't necessarily disagree but here's what scares me. Even first round QBs only have maybe a 50-50 probability of becoming franchise QBs. The odds for QBs - as all positions - fall as you go deeper in the draft. Normally, your best starters are found in the first 3 rounds. We'll take a QB with one of those picks and more than likely pick the wrong one. So one of our top 3 picks will be wasted, leaving us with only two solid (hopefully) picks in the first three rounds. We have more than 2 needs to fill in the draft and the later picks just aren't likely to give us much.
Maddog69 Posted April 17, 2013 Posted April 17, 2013 It's all subjective, and the draftniks' opinions really don't matter one bit. If the Bills like a guy as a potential franchise QB, and he's there at #8, they should take him. No questions asked. It's time to stop being afraid of being wrong. agreed. The only way to guarantee that you won't get a good young QB is not to draft one. I don't necessarily disagree but here's what scares me. Even first round QBs only have maybe a 50-50 probability of becoming franchise QBs. The odds for QBs - as all positions - fall as you go deeper in the draft. Normally, your best starters are found in the first 3 rounds. We'll take a QB with one of those picks and more than likely pick the wrong one. So one of our top 3 picks will be wasted, leaving us with only two solid (hopefully) picks in the first three rounds. We have more than 2 needs to fill in the draft and the later picks just aren't likely to give us much. QBs have no higher propensity for failing than any other position. The chance of one of our top 3 picks being wasted is the same regardless of what position is selected with each of those picks.
cosmo Posted April 17, 2013 Posted April 17, 2013 I hate the idea of waiting til next year to draft a QB in the 1st. Maybe next year's class looks better now but what if Johnny Football stays in school another year and what if Bridgewater or whoever else gets hurt or has an off year. We've only picked a QB in the 1st round once in the 30 years since Jim Kelly, and we wonder why we haven't had a franchise QB since him.
Cash Posted April 17, 2013 Posted April 17, 2013 Does everyone trust the coaches and scouts to make the right decision after they've met with, interviewed, worked out and evaluated all the quarterbacks they're interested in? I do. I do not. Sorry, but a 16-32 record as GM does not give me much confidence in Buddy Nix's overall competence as an evaluator of talent. Keep in mind that on the day he took the job, he declared that the team "wasn't that far away." The other day, he said that the team "has more talent than you think," which has been a frequent refrain in his time as GM. He's been repeating these kinds of things for 3 years, but the team has been very consistently bad during that time. I don't see what's changed. (Yes, I did hate the Gailey hire, and I do think he cost us games vs. a competent head coach, but if the team is so close/so talented, they should be winning more than 4-6 games per year. Jauron was also a bad coach, but managed to win 7 games in each of his first 3 seasons.) I don't necessarily disagree but here's what scares me. Even first round QBs only have maybe a 50-50 probability of becoming franchise QBs. The odds for QBs - as all positions - fall as you go deeper in the draft. Normally, your best starters are found in the first 3 rounds. We'll take a QB with one of those picks and more than likely pick the wrong one. So one of our top 3 picks will be wasted, leaving us with only two solid (hopefully) picks in the first three rounds. We have more than 2 needs to fill in the draft and the later picks just aren't likely to give us much. Well, how do you propose to get a good QB then? Wait for the next Drew Brees or Peyton Manning to hit FA following a serious injury? That probably won't happen again very soon, and if it does, the elite QB in question probably won't choose to sign with the Bills. I know it's risky, but (virtually) the only way to get a franchise QB is to draft one. And they bust a lot, even in the 1st round, but your chances of finding one in the 1st round are much higher than in any other round. That's not to say that we automatically have to draft a guy in the first -- who you're drafting matters as much as where he's drafted. If we'd drafted Jimmy Claussen at #9 a couple years ago (as I advocated -- I'm dumb), he wouldn't have magically turned into a better QB prospect, he just would've been a bust. Just because Christian Ponder was drafted at #12 overall didn't make him a first-round prospect, and we shouldn't be surprised when he goes bust.
mattsox Posted April 17, 2013 Posted April 17, 2013 Looking like it. I'm not unhappy with that strategy. I read a lot of posts saying no way on picking a quarterback at number 8. I say if they like a guy and think he could be our franchise guy then screw draftnics and pick him. Let's get a damn quarterback in here. We'll get our QB @8!!! He did say that we will find out whether he was worth the 8th pick in 2-3 years. He's going to take a lot of heat if it's Nassib. Rather it be Nassib actually. I think he can be a franchise QB, but regardless you got to take a QB @8, no way they wait to a later round!!!
White Linen Posted April 17, 2013 Posted April 17, 2013 i dunno... i got the feeling that he gives away more than he intends quite often and had visions of them being grateful for the day they can remove his mouth from the podium. i think you can take a lot from what he says, more than you should. Would it make you feel better if someone else told you? Do you honestly think he's giving away secrets? Ssshhhh Buddy don't tell anyone we need a franchise QB and another WR.
The Big Cat Posted April 17, 2013 Posted April 17, 2013 (edited) I do not. Sorry, but a 16-32 record as GM does not give me much confidence in Buddy Nix's overall competence as an evaluator of talent. Keep in mind that on the day he took the job, he declared that the team "wasn't that far away." The other day, he said that the team "has more talent than you think," which has been a frequent refrain in his time as GM. He's been repeating these kinds of things for 3 years, but the team has been very consistently bad during that time. I don't see what's changed. (Yes, I did hate the Gailey hire, and I do think he cost us games vs. a competent head coach, but if the team is so close/so talented, they should be winning more than 4-6 games per year. Jauron was also a bad coach, but managed to win 7 games in each of his first 3 seasons.) Well, how do you propose to get a good QB then? Wait for the next Drew Brees or Peyton Manning to hit FA following a serious injury? That probably won't happen again very soon, and if it does, the elite QB in question probably won't choose to sign with the Bills. I know it's risky, but (virtually) the only way to get a franchise QB is to draft one. And they bust a lot, even in the 1st round, but your chances of finding one in the 1st round are much higher than in any other round. That's not to say that we automatically have to draft a guy in the first -- who you're drafting matters as much as where he's drafted. If we'd drafted Jimmy Claussen at #9 a couple years ago (as I advocated -- I'm dumb), he wouldn't have magically turned into a better QB prospect, he just would've been a bust. Just because Christian Ponder was drafted at #12 overall didn't make him a first-round prospect, and we shouldn't be surprised when he goes bust. Well, talent v coaching = chicken v egg, so between you and me, it's just a difference of opinion. I happen to believe that the league-wide, team-to-team talent level is a bell curve. And that no team has an abundance of elite talent, just like no team has an abundance of ****ty talent. Having said that, I also believe that the talent-level on our team IS higher than it was under Jauron when when had DiGorgio starting at MLB, Anthony Thomas as our second running back, Robert mother !@#$ing Royal as our best tight end, and defensive/offensive lines that were just plain terrible. We have gotten significantly better in the trenches under Nix. Edited April 17, 2013 by taC giB ehT
cosmo Posted April 17, 2013 Posted April 17, 2013 Would it make you feel better if someone else told you? Do you honestly think he's giving away secrets? Ssshhhh Buddy don't tell anyone we need a franchise QB and another WR. Hahaha seriously, he might not be the best GM ever but he's not senile!
Kirby Jackson Posted April 17, 2013 Posted April 17, 2013 I hear you, but don't you agree if the Bills believe a guy is a franchise QB there is no reason to wait? They have thoroughly evaluated ALL of the QBs coming out. Very true, Mr. Barkley. I do agree. Personally, I don't see a safe franchise QB. I see it as a risk. If they are confident that there is a can't miss guy they would know better than me. I would rather take a guy later and hope that he is the one. If not, there are a few that I am confident in next year.
Rubes Posted April 17, 2013 Posted April 17, 2013 I'm really interested to see what happens this year -- I think it comes down to how many QBs are taken in picks 1-7. If none or one, I can see us trading down if there is a team like St. Louis or Minnesota looking to move up. I think Buddy really wants to get a seventh pick back if he can. I'd be happy with a 1st round pick in the late teens-early twenties, and an extra 2nd rounder. I think that would help us out a lot.
Kelly the Dog Posted April 17, 2013 Posted April 17, 2013 I kind of wish Buddy would shut his mouth. While I often appreciate his honesty, and it makes it more fun as a fan to have an indication about what their strategy will be, it's free information that he gives out to his competitors. I find it stupid. Buddy also said, "We lie to them and they lie to us." I really don't think it matters one bit what he says. All teams try to guess what the other teams are likely to do by their obvious holes on the roster, not what the GMs and club officials say to the press. Everyone knows it's a poker game and there is a ton of misinformation out there. From everything he said last year, you couldn't really have predicted we would draft Gilmore, Glenn, TJ Graham and Bradham with the first four picks. Glenn would have been the only one and he better have taken him when he was surprisingly available.
Rubes Posted April 17, 2013 Posted April 17, 2013 Buddy also said, "We lie to them and they lie to us." I really don't think it matters one bit what he says. All teams try to guess what the other teams are likely to do by their obvious holes on the roster, not what the GMs and club officials say to the press. Everyone knows it's a poker game and there is a ton of misinformation out there. From everything he said last year, you couldn't really have predicted we would draft Gilmore, Glenn, TJ Graham and Bradham with the first four picks. Glenn would have been the only one and he better have taken him when he was surprisingly available. If Graham can get his act together this year (and I'm expecting him to), then this would have been a very good draft.
Kelly the Dog Posted April 17, 2013 Posted April 17, 2013 If Graham can get his act together this year (and I'm expecting him to), then this would have been a very good draft. I really think that Bradham is a player, Gilmore is an absolute stud in the making and Glenn a solid LT. For all the crap Nix gets, if Bradham turns into a very good player, and very well could in this kind of defense, this draft is going to look great. I don't have as much hope for TJ as you do, but that would be icing on the cake.
Rubes Posted April 17, 2013 Posted April 17, 2013 I really think that Bradham is a player, Gilmore is an absolute stud in the making and Glenn a solid LT. For all the crap Nix gets, if Bradham turns into a very good player, and very well could in this kind of defense, this draft is going to look great. I don't have as much hope for TJ as you do, but that would be icing on the cake. I'm excited to see what Bradham can do in this new defense. I think he did quite well for a rookie in the kind of defense (4-3) that he's not really built for. Pettine is going to set him loose. As for TJ, I have no real reason to expect it, other than I think he does have talent, speed, and a little more size than I was expecting. We'll see if the game starts to slow down for him a bit -- but I think he can turn into a decent outside guy if Hackett knows how to use him.
yungmack Posted April 17, 2013 Posted April 17, 2013 Buddy's comments lead me to believe he'll try to trade down in the first round if there is no run on QBs at the top of the draft. I don't think he wants to go below 20 in any case. I also think he tipped his hand about taking a safety in a later round.
Brainiac21 Posted April 17, 2013 Posted April 17, 2013 (edited) well there would be no point even listening if you didn't think he told you any truths. i think history has proven you absolutely can tell his direction from what he says. positions are ruled out, and in, every year based on what he says. has he finally started to lie publicly at these events? maybe, but i doubt it until proven otherwise. put it this way; teams below us wanting that Safety or one of the OG's are certainly not worried about us taking one, among other things. Edited April 17, 2013 by Brainiac21
EastRochBillsfan Posted April 17, 2013 Posted April 17, 2013 I kind of wish Buddy would shut his mouth. While I often appreciate his honesty, and it makes it more fun as a fan to have an indication about what their strategy will be, it's free information that he gives out to his competitors. I find it stupid. So you have got Buddy all figured out?...well why don't you go on record then and tell the rest of us what it's going to be and then we can check back and see how right you were. Realistically you've probably got at least a 50% shot if you pick qb for the first pick and that goes way up for the second pick.
Rubes Posted April 17, 2013 Posted April 17, 2013 well there would be no point even listening if you didn't think he told you any truths. i think history has proven you absolutely can tell his direction from what he says. positions are ruled out, and in, every year based on what he says. has he finally started to lie publicly at these events? maybe, but i doubt it until proven otherwise. put it this way; teams below us wanting that Safety or one of the OG's are certainly not worried about us taking one, among other things. But isn't that the point? Teams trading up with us aren't interested in who we are taking, but rather who the teams immediately after us are taking.
simpleman Posted April 17, 2013 Posted April 17, 2013 Does everyone trust the coaches and scouts to make the right decision after they've met with, interviewed, worked out and evaluated all the quarterbacks they're interested in? I do. Oh yes, past history has shown just how well the current scouting staff and GM have picked the past few years. Why would there be reason to not trust them to make the right decisions?
thebandit27 Posted April 17, 2013 Posted April 17, 2013 Oh yes, past history has shown just how well the current scouting staff and GM have picked the past few years. Why would there be reason to not trust them to make the right decisions? Well, last year's draft is shaping up to be pretty darn good: starting-caliber CB who should keep getting better, starting LT who acquitted himself nicely, aggressive/athletic LB with speed, all in the first 4 rounds.
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