Buddy Nix and "two or three quarterbacks in this draft"

[section122]

I have an idea. Look at the draft visits. 3 receivers from Tennesee and another former Volunteer. All of them know the ins and outs of Tyler Bray. I think they liked the tape but were worried about his personality. I'm not a huge fan of Bray but I think he is higher on the Bills list than most. Past history indicates that predraft visits play a huge role in who is drafted.

[Kelly the Dog]

Smith, Barkley, Manuel. In that order, with Manuel being the one that shot up the charts since the Senior Bowl.

 

On the other hand, Nassib hasn't done anything to cause him to rise up the charts. Quite the opposite in fact, with poor showings in practice during Senior Bowl week (which shows scouts a lot more than a scripted pro day), an even poorer game (not that one All-Star game matters), and nothing eye-popping at the combine.

 

GO BILLS!!!

Russell Wilson was 4-7 for 45 net yards with an INT, a TD and two sacks in the Senior Bowl. Kaepernick was 4-9 for 53 yards and an INT. Neither ran well.

[Haven Moses]

The Barkley talk is all smoke. No way they pick him.

[KeisterHollow]

I have an idea. Look at the draft visits. 3 receivers from Tennesee and another former Volunteer. All of them know the ins and outs of Tyler Bray. I think they liked the tape but were worried about his personality. I'm not a huge fan of Bray but I think he is higher on the Bills list than most. Past history indicates that predraft visits play a huge role in who is drafted.

 

That's a very keen observation. I also thought they might be higher on Bray (although I forget to even list him on my last post), if only because IF they wait, he seems like the QB who might be available even in the 3rd who could conceivably has realistic NFL starter ability. If they miss on Nassib, Barkley, and Manuel (I, too, BTW, have a feeling they're not as sold on Geno as everyone else seems to be), I'd guess they target Bray in the 3rd - and if they don't get their QB after their 2nd pick, I'd almost guarantee they trade back up to get Wilson or Bray instead of hoping he'd be there in the 3rd.

[K-9]

Russell Wilson was 4-7 for 45 net yards with an INT, a TD and two sacks in the Senior Bowl. Kaepernick was 4-9 for 53 yards and an INT. Neither ran well.

 

Like I said, one All-Star game doesn't mean much to anyone. And no basis of opinion was formed after that one game. My point was he didn't do anything to distinguish himself. But more importantly, he didn't have a great week of practice, either. That does come under scrutiny. Both Wilson and Kaerpernick had great practice weeks for scouts at their Senior Bowl.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Kelly the Dog]

The Barkley talk is all smoke. No way they pick him.

One thing about Barkley. People seem to just assume that because Barkley played very well against Marrone's teams that Marrone automatically likes him a lot because he had to be impressed by his game/games.

 

But the opposite may be true.

 

College is a different game than the pros, and Marrone has the unique advantage of being recent to both of them. The knock on Barkley is clearly his arm strength. Marrone could easily have watched those couple games in person and concluded that Barkley's game is perfect for the college level but it just wouldn't translate to and work that way in the pros because he needs to throw much harder.

 

Like I said, one All-Star game doesn't mean much to anyone. And no basis of opinion was formed after that one game. My point was he didn't do anything to distinguish himself. But more importantly, he didn't have a great week of practice, either. That does come under scrutiny. Both Wilson and Kaerpernick had great practice weeks for scouts at their Senior Bowl.

 

GO BILLS!!!

No one did though. Most of the reports I read, and there were a bunch of them, said that no one stood out, Manuel surprised the most, and Nassib was probably second overall.

[K-9]

One thing about Barkley. People seem to just assume that because Barkley played very well against Marrone's teams that Marrone automatically likes him a lot because he had to be impressed by his game/games.

 

But the opposite may be true.

 

College is a different game than the pros, and Marrone has the unique advantage of being recent to both of them. The knock on Barkley is clearly his arm strength. Marrone could easily have watched those couple games in person and concluded that Barkley's game is perfect for the college level but it just wouldn't translate to and work that way in the pros because he needs to throw much harder.

 

 

No one did though. Most of the reports I read, and there were a bunch of them, said that no one stood out, Manuel surprised the most, and Nassib was probably second overall.

 

So Nassib was second best out of an entire group that didn't impress. Like I said, he didn't do much to distinguish himself. I'm just not seeing what people are so enamored with when I watch him play. Admittedly, I only saw a few 'Cuse games last season but he never struck me as anything more than pedestrian and very stiff at the position.

 

If the Bills take him, I'll certainly hope for the best. But, like your point about Marrone and Barkley above, if they don't select Nassib, that will speak volumes.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[snamsnoops]

I say Smith is the 1st. If he is there @ 8 they take him. If not they either trade back into the first to get Manuel or wait til second. I think Nassib is the 3rd Qb. If they miss out on the first 2 they better hope Nassib is there. I also like Brays ability, and he could probably be had in the 3-4 rounds!

[Kelly the Dog]

So Nassib was second best out of an entire group that didn't impress. Like I said, he didn't do much to distinguish himself. I'm just not seeing what people are so enamored with when I watch him play. Admittedly, I only saw a few 'Cuse games last season but he never struck me as anything more than pedestrian and very stiff at the position.

 

If the Bills take him, I'll certainly hope for the best. But, like your point about Marrone and Barkley above, if they don't select Nassib, that will speak volumes.

 

GO BILLS!!!

I agree with all of that. I'm not sold on Nassib although I think he has a lot of potential and a lot of intangibles.

 

I just think that there are twenty different things that GMs and scouts look at (not look for) in terms of evaluating QBs and post season all star games are one of 20 and not one of the higher ones. It does make some difference when your coaches are the coaches of the teams like the year Chan was.

[Armchair GM]

the original 2 sounds like conjecture, as in "every draft has 2 guys"... becuase he said the tough part is figuring out who those 2 were. that makes it sound like it wasn't based on scouting, but on his view of history.

 

 

That's a good bingo. More informed than what it comes off as, but it sums it up.

 

The scouting process is more than a 1 year project. They've had their collective eyes on a couple targets for a couple years at this point.

 

Nassib is the natural addition with the Marrone hire and with their extensive look into a couple guys, you have reason to believe that they have formulated their own list, unadulterated by mass opinion.

 

IMHO their "top 2-3" are guys that have performed consistently and have not "choked" in the face of high pressure situations. That, in effect, eliminates the "top" guy this year in Geno Smith. Further, I believe it 86's Manuel.

 

The three I see the Bills being "high" on...cutting Barkley some slack, even though the expectations heaped upon his shoulders going into the 2012 campaign lends to a high pressure situation, he was hindered by injury as well as a poor showing by his surrounding cast. Nassib got better and better and performed consistently, even in the "big game" situation. Finally, Landry Jones is the guy I think entered the mix late (after pro day, private work out and pre-draft visit). Sorry, but you don't put up gaudy stats like that being indecisive with questionable leadership characteristics. Granted his NCAA career ended in a blow out, but it's not like he gave the game away, 35-48 w/278yds, 1 TD and 1INT (that's 73% w/8YPC) and, even if the int was a pic6 (can't recall) the game wasn't even close.

 

So, to sum it up, the 2-3 guys I think the Bills like, in order:

1.) Nassib

2.) Jones

3.) Barkley

 

The thing is, with the teams in front of us, I'm not sure Nassib makes it to us in rd 2...maybe not even Barkley. That being said, I think there is more value in other positions @ pick 8 and they can afford to gamble on a slide to us in the second. If they hadn't have secured the Kolb insurance policy, than Nassib @ 8 would be a lock, IMHO.

Edited April 16, 2013 by Armchair GM

[Kellyto83TD]

I can't see it being Geno. The kid is slow in reading the field which should cross him off most boards lists right there. Misses wide open throws etc. Now I get many have seen some highlights and go with the media, but you really need to look at tape on this kid, he isn't that great.

 

I think its Nassib then Barkley.

[JohnC]

This is a specific discussion I felt warranted its own thread.

 

Perhaps this is reading too much into what someone says, or over-parsing words, but perhaps not and this is just for fun.

 

The Bills have been conducting private workouts, attending pro days, and finalizing their tape review, scouts final evaluations and draft board in the last month. About a month ago, when speaking with John Kryk, Buddy said, “I’ve said from Day 1 there will be two quarterbacks in this draft that will be long-time starters in this league. And that’s a fact. The key is figuring out which two it is, and that’s what we’re in the process of doing.”

 

That, to me, was a generic statement. Buddy seems to feel that this isn't an overall good class of QBs, like everyone else feels as well, but that it's good enough to find two guys worthy of being franchise guys.

 

It gets tricky when he says, "the key is figuring out which two it is." That surely implies he hasn't decided at that time (although he surely has an idea in his head who he likes more, he'd have to). He also could have just been saying that he doesn't know which two he believes are even though he does.

 

I also think he said the "two quarterbacks" thing more than once.

 

Yesterday, however, Buddy said to John Murphy, "I think there's two or three guys in this class that'll be big-time quarterbacks in this league, and very successful guys," Nix stated. "Now, all of 'em got deficiencies... but all of these guys can do something good. There's about six or seven of them that can do enough good things to win for you."

 

So he added one guy after study that he thinks is a borderline franchise guy.

 

That, to me, means after studying and interviewing one guy has gone significantly up the Bills board and is now a possible first round pick.

 

So who is that guy? And it may be the clue to who the Bills draft.

 

I think Geno is one of the first two. There is a lot of dissension abut how good he is all across the board but he is the consensus best, and the only one most people seem to think will go off the board in the top ten. he would fit what the Bills offense will be like.

 

The guy I think rose up the Bills charts is EJ Manuel. That is just conjecture. The second guy could have been Nassib all along because Buddy would have already spoken to Marrone and has seen him a couple times live.

 

For the purposes of this thread, and just for fun, list the two you think were the first two... and the guy you think changed the quote to "two or three guys".

 

And it's not who you think is best, but who the Bills think is best, which may or may not be the same players.

 

For me it's:

1-2 Geno and Nassib.

3 Manuel.

 

And if there are now three guys instead of two, it increases the chances of not taking a QB at 8.

 

Put your money on Tyler Wilson being on his three man list. Wilson is a southern boy and played in the SEC, played four years and had a stellar junior year. He fits Nix's profile. If Buddy took him in the second round I would be more than pleased.

[rayray808]

I have an idea. Look at the draft visits. 3 receivers from Tennesee and another former Volunteer. All of them know the ins and outs of Tyler Bray. I think they liked the tape but were worried about his personality. I'm not a huge fan of Bray but I think he is higher on the Bills list than most. Past history indicates that predraft visits play a huge role in who is drafted.

 

THIS...

 

here are the two scenarios I see for the draft...

1) Geno falls - we pick him

2) Nassib falls to the second round - we pick him

3) We go Patterson at one, Bray in round two if Nassib is gone

 

either way, we will have Geno/Nassib/Bray as QB next year... my 2 cents

[eball]

FWIW (not much, admittedly), I believe the three are Nassib, Geno, and Wilson.

 

Edit: JohnC, just read your post. Completely agree, that's why Wilson is on my list.

Edited April 16, 2013 by eball

[JPS]

The Barkley talk is all smoke. No way they pick him.

Why are people negative on Barkley?

[Kelly the Dog]

Put your money on Tyler Wilson being on his three man list. Wilson is a southern boy and played in the SEC, played four years and had a stellar junior year. He fits Nix's profile. If Buddy took him in the second round I would be more than pleased.

I would not mind Wilson in the second round at all. There is a lot to like about him. He is not the guy that would surprise Buddy though and shoot up the charts because of aforementioned qualities you listed. He's probably been watching him closely all along. I'm just not sure he would be one of the two originals (if that is what actually happened in Buddy's head, he was just likely talking about there is going to be two because there is always two).

[eball]

Why are people negative on Barkley?

 

Fear of a weak arm.

[KeisterHollow]

I hadn't thought much about Landry Jones - but, at this time last year he was projected as a future 1st round pick, or up there with the better college QB's. So, too, obviously, was Barkley. A point was made that scouting isn't done on just one year, but on a body of work. With that in mind I think it securely puts Jones and Barkley on that list. I don't care for Smith so I'm thinking he's not too high on their list - and, if that is so then it is perfect for us, since he's the likely QB to go before our 8th pick! Nassib is no doubt on the list. I have to believe they like Manuel, and I know they like Wilson.

 

So, I believe they have their QB's rated Barkley, Nassib, Manuel, Jones, Wilson - a slight change since my last post. I really hadn't given Jones a lot of thought, but if we're guessing, I suppose his history is undeniable.

 

A really interesting aspect of the draft - one of many - is this: what if Buffalo gets their choice of QB at 8? If every QB is available, it would put them in a very tough spot. How could they possibly pass on a QB - especially now that Nix has admitted there are Franchise guys in this draft? Anyway, I have to believe the draft room is split on the QB's. I almost think they'd rather not have to choose between Barkley and Nassib.

 

But, if I were to guess what round, rank they have these guys rated, I'll go top or bottom of each round:

 

Barkley - top 1st

Nassib, Manuel - bottom 1st

Geno, Wilson - top 2nd

Jones - bottom 2nd

Bray - top 3rd

Scott, Glennon - bottom 3rd

Dysert - top 4th

 

If they have other guys rated a lot higher than Barkley or whoever their top QB is, then according to my thinking they probably feel confident in getting a decent guy even into round 3. Still - all things considered, how could Buffalo risk passing on their choice of QB, given their history?

[JohnC]

I would not mind Wilson in the second round at all. There is a lot to like about him. He is not the guy that would surprise Buddy though and shoot up the charts because of aforementioned qualities you listed. He's probably been watching him closely all along. I'm just not sure he would be one of the two originals (if that is what actually happened in Buddy's head, he was just likely talking about there is going to be two because there is always two).

 

Buddy is not the type of person who when listening to you should be too concerned with what he was precisely saying. With him it is more important to give credence to the the general thought.

 

FWIW (not much, admittedly), I believe the three are Nassib, Geno, and Wilson.

 

Edit: JohnC, just read your post. Completely agree, that's why Wilson is on my list.

 

I like Tyler Wilson a lot. He had a very challenging year at Arkansas. His scoundrel HC who does wonders in tutoring qbs was chased off the campus. His play was hindered by the fact that he had a new set of receivers and had to play behind a porous OL. He has a decent arm (not great), good pocket presense and can throw on the run. He is not what you would consider to be a special talent but he is a good talent who is capable of being a legitimae franchise qb.

[Alphadawg7]

I think the two most obvious choices were Geno and Barkeley, however, I have a suspicion they are, and have been, really high on Wilson and that it was Geno and Wilson. The guy I suspect has moved up their board is also EJ Manuel.

 

I personally think we will only go QB at 8 if Geno is on the board still. If not, they will go either G, LB, or WR (hope not G just because good ones can be found later still) and then they will see how round 1 starts playing out in terms of QBs to determine if they should try and trade back into it to grab a guy or patiently wait til round 2 and hope either Manuel or Wilson is still their (or maybe Nassib, although I am not convinced they are as high on him as many think).