Buddy Nix and "two or three quarterbacks in this draft"

[Kelly the Dog]

This is a specific discussion I felt warranted its own thread.

 

Perhaps this is reading too much into what someone says, or over-parsing words, but perhaps not and this is just for fun.

 

The Bills have been conducting private workouts, attending pro days, and finalizing their tape review, scouts final evaluations and draft board in the last month. About a month ago, when speaking with John Kryk, Buddy said, “I’ve said from Day 1 there will be two quarterbacks in this draft that will be long-time starters in this league. And that’s a fact. The key is figuring out which two it is, and that’s what we’re in the process of doing.”

 

That, to me, was a generic statement. Buddy seems to feel that this isn't an overall good class of QBs, like everyone else feels as well, but that it's good enough to find two guys worthy of being franchise guys.

 

It gets tricky when he says, "the key is figuring out which two it is." That surely implies he hasn't decided at that time (although he surely has an idea in his head who he likes more, he'd have to). He also could have just been saying that he doesn't know which two he believes are even though he does.

 

I also think he said the "two quarterbacks" thing more than once.

 

Yesterday, however, Buddy said to John Murphy, "I think there's two or three guys in this class that'll be big-time quarterbacks in this league, and very successful guys," Nix stated. "Now, all of 'em got deficiencies... but all of these guys can do something good. There's about six or seven of them that can do enough good things to win for you."

 

So he added one guy after study that he thinks is a borderline franchise guy.

 

That, to me, means after studying and interviewing one guy has gone significantly up the Bills board and is now a possible first round pick.

 

So who is that guy? And it may be the clue to who the Bills draft.

 

I think Geno is one of the first two. There is a lot of dissension abut how good he is all across the board but he is the consensus best, and the only one most people seem to think will go off the board in the top ten. he would fit what the Bills offense will be like.

 

The guy I think rose up the Bills charts is EJ Manuel. That is just conjecture. The second guy could have been Nassib all along because Buddy would have already spoken to Marrone and has seen him a couple times live.

 

For the purposes of this thread, and just for fun, list the two you think were the first two... and the guy you think changed the quote to "two or three guys".

 

And it's not who you think is best, but who the Bills think is best, which may or may not be the same players.

 

For me it's:

1-2 Geno and Nassib.

3 Manuel.

 

And if there are now three guys instead of two, it increases the chances of not taking a QB at 8.

[Haven Moses]

He says 2 because Geno will be picked ahead of us and he wants everyone else to think we will take the second.

 

We will draft a postion that Buddy hasnt talked about. Someone like Wormack

[Magox]

Assuming he is truly speaking his mind, and that he honestly believes that there are two or three guys that will be "big-time" quarterbacks, then you have to believe we will be drafting a QB with our first round pick. When you have such a big and important hole to fill in the QB position and you have the opportunity to draft a "big-time" quarterback, then it would be professional/GM malpractice to not make that selection, assuming of course that one of those picks are still available by the time we draft, in which I'm pretty sure that they will be.

[BringBackFergy]

My opinion:

 

Geno and Barkley are the first two

 

Nassib is the new guy that shot up the charts.

[Magox]

My opinion:

 

Geno and Barkley are the first two

 

Nassib is the new guy that shot up the charts.

 

That wouldn't make sense to me. Simply because Marrone and Hackett have seen him throw for years, I don't really see how after the season he would of "shot up" the charts, unless of course Marrone and Hackett's lobbying efforts have penetrated into Nix's thoughts on Nassib.

[Coach Tuesday]

Completely agree with your thought process, however I'm not sure I agree with your final ranking. Because there may be a difference between the order of the guys they like and where they think they'll go. There is reason to think Manuel will go higher than Nassib.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Here's the interview:

 

http://www.buffalobills.com/media-center/audio/Buddy_Nix_Comments_on_Byrd_Kolb_and_Draft/5b9ddb59-4150-4f0a-8f5a-7af14854152a

[Bangarang]

Barkley and Geno

[26CornerBlitz]

It was interesting ho hear what Buddy had to say on the John Murphy Show yesterday:

 

http://audio.wgr550.com/a/73638778/john-murphy-interview-with-buddy-nix.htm

[BringBackFergy]

That wouldn't make sense to me. Simply because Marrone and Hackett have seen him throw for years, I don't really see how after the season he would of "shot up" the charts, unless of course Marrone and Hackett's lobbying efforts have penetrated into Nix's thoughts on Nassib.

That was my thought on why Nassib may now be Nix's top pick...if he makes the selection and Nassib goes bust...Nix falls on the sword and walks away. If Nassib is a stud, Nix looks like a stud and he retires with a smile on his face.

[Kelly the Dog]

Completely agree with your thought process, however I'm not sure I agree with your final ranking. Because there may be a difference between the order of the guys they like and where they think they'll go. There is reason to think Manuel will go higher than Nassib.

I agree. I was just trying to guess who he was talking about when he did. it's quite possible that the third guy passed the second guy in his mind.

 

I could easily see them now thinking Manuel is a better overall prospect than Nassib even if he will not be better right away. Fans and pundits often fail to realize that first round picks are thought of by GMs as 5-10 year guys on your team, not just who will help you the most as rookies, and no other round are they considered like that.

 

They could easily think Nassib is ready right now and could be good but who is going to be better 2-3 years from now when we are a contender. And that guy could well be Manuel. It would also make sense that after intensive, extensive study and interviews, he shot up the board.

[Brainiac21]

the original 2 sounds like conjecture, as in "every draft has 2 guys"... becuase he said the tough part is figuring out who those 2 were. that makes it sound like it wasn't based on scouting, but on his view of history.

 

the latter "2 or 3" came after all the tape review and visits. so i'm not sure one rose that much... i just think they like 2 or 3 with the 3rd maybe being borderline.

 

the only thing i really take from these comments is he does like some QBs here to be franchise guys, meaning i think it's almost a sure thing we take one in first 2 rounds, and maybe even in round 1. that of course is what many think anyway, but there were some thinking we'd take a developmental guy late at best and draft one high next year. i don't think so. they are taking one high.

 

also noted that he said 6 or 7 guys can win games, but they visited with about 10. so some didn't make the cut. i do think they like Wilson, and that he's at least in the 6 or 7 along with Nassib.

Edited April 16, 2013 by Brainiac21

[San-O]

Thanks Buddy.

 

I get the feeling Buddy thinks getting a QB is like going to the grocery store or market.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Thanks Buddy.

 

I get the feeling Buddy thinks getting a QB is like going to the grocery store or market.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KsEhXE5IUCQ

[Magox]

Thanks Buddy.

 

I get the feeling Buddy thinks getting a QB is like going to the grocery store or market.

 

Pretty much how I feel... He is waaaay too transparent.

 

And the prebuttal to the anticipated "Well it could be a smokescreen", I simply don't buy it.

[2003Contenders]

I think you may parsing words a bit here. I think what Buddy was initially saying is that almost every year -- whether it be a "good" year for rookie QBs or a "bad" year -- there are going to be a couple of guys who become franchise players. I don't think he necessarily had two guys in mind at that time. The "2 or 3" comment he made yesterday was more or less a confirmation of his earlier comment -- with additional information about all of the top QBs in this year's draft. That is to say that at this point he and the scouts have narrowed their focus to the 2 (or 3) guys that he feels has the best chance to be one of those potential franchise QBs.

 

Regardless, it is fun to guess which QBs the team may have liked best going in -- and which one may have jumped out at them.

 

I think one of the guys they REALLY liked going in was Barkley. Nix likes guys with leadership and experience at the QB position. He also likes guys who are accurate and anticipate well. That is Barkley. I also think Marrone likes him. The question is whether or not he has the arm strength to stand up in Buffalo.

 

I agree that Nassib would have been the other choice. Here is one guy that seems to fit the offense they want to run, already KNOWS the offense, and a player about whom they already have a wealth of information. In fact, all of the other QB looks may have been a poorly veiled attempt to throw other teams off the scent -- or it could have been an effort to see if they could talk themselves out of drafting him.

 

Along those line, it could be that they have fallen in love with another QB's upside over the polish of Nassib and Barkley. Call it a hunch, but for some reason I really do not get the sense that the Bills are all that interested in Geno. (Marrone saw plenty of him up close up and could not have been impressed in those games against SU.) EJ is a possibility, as you suggest. Nix and company have shown a tendency to place a great deal of stock in the Senior Bowl -- and Manuel definitely looked the best there.

 

There are a few other guys with big upside that could be very intriguing. I thought it interesting that he chose to cite Kaep and Wilson as kids he wished he had not passed on -- rather than, say, Andy Dalton. Manuel could fit that mold. So might Mike Scott. There are also guys like Glennon, Landry Jones and Bray who have big arms and may be available in the 3rd or 4th round.

 

I think we can book it that the Bills will draft a QB at SOME point in this draft. Will it be at 8? Will they trade back or up into the end of the 1st round? Will they wait and see who is still on the board at 41? Or will that seriously draft BPA and draft their top rated QB in the middle rounds. Whatever thy decide to do, rest assured that they will insist that they got one of the "2 or 3" guys Nix mentioned. If they go that route, I will guess it is Glennon.

[K-9]

Smith, Barkley, Manuel. In that order, with Manuel being the one that shot up the charts since the Senior Bowl.

 

On the other hand, Nassib hasn't done anything to cause him to rise up the charts. Quite the opposite in fact, with poor showings in practice during Senior Bowl week (which shows scouts a lot more than a scripted pro day), an even poorer game (not that one All-Star game matters), and nothing eye-popping at the combine.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[KeisterHollow]

If Buddy is being honest when he says there are 2 or 3 guys in this draft that he'll guarantee will be very good players, then isn't he backing himself into a corner when it comes to drafting a QB at 8? We can be reasonably sure there'll only be one QB taken before the Bills pick - if even that - and considering the Bills have had squat at the position for so long everyone knows QB is the Bills biggest need. All that being so, how could Buddy pass on a QB at 8 when he's gone on record saying there are 2 or 3 Franchise caliber guys?

 

Of course, if he's saying that to create the impression they'll take a QB EVEN IF a QB or two have already by taken, so that no one will be sure who'll they'll take, then that goes outside of Nix's character, but it is definitely something most GM's would say or do.

 

In a lot of ways that statement makes the case for them going QB at 8. It creates the foundation for them going Nassib, Barkley, or Manuel even if Smith and another guy are gone already - and then Nix can say he always thought there were more than one good QB in the class, so as not to seem like he was "reaching" out of panic/need.

 

As for who they are - I have to believe it's more like 4 - Barkley, Smith, Nassib, and Manuel. Then there's Wilson - who I think they'd have as a second rounder, and Scott, Glennon, Dysert, and Jones who're somewhere in the 3-4 range. I just can't fathom Nix trying to wait until the second to get one of 2 or 3 QB's - there's no way they'd be there, at least not a betting chance. Unless they're sure they can either trade down or back up into the first, I don't see them passing on QB at 8, now.

[JPS]

The most important thing he said was, and I'm paraphrasing cuz I don't speak Buddy, 'we will find out if he was worth the 8th pick in 2 to 3 years'. That tells me if Geno falls to the Bills, he will be a Bill. If they don't take Geno, they will wait till 41 and see who's there. That's my take on that interview.

 

Then again, I guess you wouldn't advertise your plan to trade back up into the 1st.

[mattsox]

This is a specific discussion I felt warranted its own thread.

 

Perhaps this is reading too much into what someone says, or over-parsing words, but perhaps not and this is just for fun.

 

The Bills have been conducting private workouts, attending pro days, and finalizing their tape review, scouts final evaluations and draft board in the last month. About a month ago, when speaking with John Kryk, Buddy said, “I’ve said from Day 1 there will be two quarterbacks in this draft that will be long-time starters in this league. And that’s a fact. The key is figuring out which two it is, and that’s what we’re in the process of doing.”

 

That, to me, was a generic statement. Buddy seems to feel that this isn't an overall good class of QBs, like everyone else feels as well, but that it's good enough to find two guys worthy of being franchise guys.

 

It gets tricky when he says, "the key is figuring out which two it is." That surely implies he hasn't decided at that time (although he surely has an idea in his head who he likes more, he'd have to). He also could have just been saying that he doesn't know which two he believes are even though he does.

 

I also think he said the "two quarterbacks" thing more than once.

 

Yesterday, however, Buddy said to John Murphy, "I think there's two or three guys in this class that'll be big-time quarterbacks in this league, and very successful guys," Nix stated. "Now, all of 'em got deficiencies... but all of these guys can do something good. There's about six or seven of them that can do enough good things to win for you."

 

So he added one guy after study that he thinks is a borderline franchise guy.

 

That, to me, means after studying and interviewing one guy has gone significantly up the Bills board and is now a possible first round pick.

 

So who is that guy? And it may be the clue to who the Bills draft.

 

I think Geno is one of the first two. There is a lot of dissension abut how good he is all across the board but he is the consensus best, and the only one most people seem to think will go off the board in the top ten. he would fit what the Bills offense will be like.

 

The guy I think rose up the Bills charts is EJ Manuel. That is just conjecture. The second guy could have been Nassib all along because Buddy would have already spoken to Marrone and has seen him a couple times live.

 

For the purposes of this thread, and just for fun, list the two you think were the first two... and the guy you think changed the quote to "two or three guys".

 

And it's not who you think is best, but who the Bills think is best, which may or may not be the same players.

 

For me it's:

1-2 Geno and Nassib.

3 Manuel.

 

And if there are now three guys instead of two, it increases the chances of not taking a QB at 8.

 

Go Get 'Er Done @ 8 Buddy!!!!