wetdogbillsfan Posted April 16, 2013 Posted April 16, 2013 (edited) ESPN insider - no link. All you Geno lovers.....what say you?? Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia Reason overvalued: His vertical passing skills are still largely unproven Last year, Smith had two of the best wide receivers in college football (Tavon Austin andStedman Bailey) and yet ESPN Stats & Information's research indicates that his average pass traveled only 7.7 yards downfield, which is the fewest air yards of any top quarterback prospect. The stats also show that in West Virginia's six losses, Smith completed fewer than a quarter of his throws that traveled 15 or more yards downfield and was off-target on more than half of such attempts.... Edited April 16, 2013 by Beerball
Maury Ballstein Posted April 16, 2013 Posted April 16, 2013 Well the geno fan says.....there's such a thing as perfect ball placement on short passes that allows the wr to accumulate RAC/YAC.....kinda the exact opposite of what we saw from Fitz the past two years. 96tds 21 ints. Get er dun. Geno time. Newest waltermockdraft has geno at 2 to jax though....we won't be lucky enough to snag the man IMO.
C.Biscuit97 Posted April 16, 2013 Posted April 16, 2013 ESPN insider - no link. All you Geno lovers.....what say you?? Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia Reason overvalued: His vertical passing skills are still largely unproven Last year, Smith had two of the best wide receivers in college football (Tavon Austin andStedman Bailey) and yet ESPN Stats & Information's research indicates that his average pass traveled only 7.7 yards downfield, which is the fewest air yards of any top quarterback prospect. The stats also show that in West Virginia's six losses, Smith completed fewer than a quarter of his throws that traveled 15 or more yards downfield and was off-target on more than half of such attempts.... Can we get some comparison to other QBs? Because it's kinda silly otherwise. Brady throws an awful lot of short passes to Welker, Eldeman, and his tight ends. Without context, it's an empty stat.
hondo in seattle Posted April 16, 2013 Posted April 16, 2013 Can we get some comparison to other QBs? Because it's kinda silly otherwise. Brady throws an awful lot of short passes to Welker, Eldeman, and his tight ends. Without context, it's an empty stat. I get where you're coming from, but completing less than a quarter of his 15+ yard passes is scary.
NoSaint Posted April 16, 2013 Posted April 16, 2013 (edited) I get where you're coming from, but completing less than a quarter of his 15+ yard passes is scary. as opposed to other qbs at a third? what is the benchmark? less than a quarter, is that 24.9% or 8%? it was written to stir the pot and get that very reaction. he was off target on half? what does that even mean, really? also even when on target the receivers were less than 50-50 to get the ball. is that normal? geno hasnt had to throw deep a lot. he is in an uptempo, quick strike type of offense. why throw a lot of 50 yard balls that are unreliable when you have two receivers that can get 50 yards on any given catch, and in the meantime are racking up 5-15 yard gains on 70% of his throws until they do break one Edited April 16, 2013 by NoSaint
San Jose Bills Fan Posted April 16, 2013 Posted April 16, 2013 ESPN insider - no link. All you Geno lovers.....what say you?? Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia Reason overvalued: His vertical passing skills are still largely unproven Last year, Smith had two of the best wide receivers in college football (Tavon Austin andStedman Bailey) and yet ESPN Stats & Information's research indicates that his average pass traveled only 7.7 yards downfield, which is the fewest air yards of any top quarterback prospect. The stats also show that in West Virginia's six losses, Smith completed fewer than a quarter of his throws that traveled 15 or more yards downfield and was off-target on more than half of such attempts.... Can we get some comparison to other QBs? Because it's kinda silly otherwise. Brady throws an awful lot of short passes to Welker, Eldeman, and his tight ends. Without context, it's an empty stat. According to this site, over one-half of Matt Barkley's throws travel no farther than 5 yards beyond the line of scrimmage with nearly one-quarter actually being thrown behind the line of scrimmage. http://draftbreakdown.com/players/matt-barkley Based on personally watching 8 of Barkley's games, these figures seem accurate to me.
C.Biscuit97 Posted April 16, 2013 Posted April 16, 2013 According to this site, over one-half of Matt Barkley's throws travel no farther than 5 yards beyond the line of scrimmage with nearly one-quarter actually being thrown behind the line of scrimmage. http://draftbreakdow...rs/matt-barkley Based on personally watching 8 of Barkley's games, these figures seem accurate to me. Boom. Did some research. YAC leaders: http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/receiving/sort/receivingYardsAfterCatch Welker had 702 YAC on 118 catches, or 5.9. He averaged 11.5 yards per catch. That means the average Tom Brady pass to Welker went 5.5 yards. Brady sucks. Also, you find Sproles (Brees, who actually had more YAC than total receiving yards. I don't know if Smith with be good but it seems people are tryign really hard to kill a guy with 96 tds to 21 ints. He is going to be a bust because he gets the ball in his playmakers hands. Wow.
K-9 Posted April 16, 2013 Posted April 16, 2013 Boom. Did some research. YAC leaders: http://espn.go.com/n...YardsAfterCatch Welker had 702 YAC on 118 catches, or 5.9. He averaged 11.5 yards per catch. That means the average Tom Brady pass to Welker went 5.5 yards. Brady sucks. Also, you find Sproles (Brees, who actually had more YAC than total receiving yards. I don't know if Smith with be good but it seems people are tryign really hard to kill a guy with 96 tds to 21 ints. He is going to be a bust because he gets the ball in his playmakers hands. Wow. Or like it's stupid to run the offense as it's designed which, like most modern offenses, is geared toward the high-percentage passing game. Which is why I like your mention of Brady. Take what's there and then kill the D when they try to take it away. Him and Welker have made a living off of five yard patterns. GO BILLS!!!
C.Biscuit97 Posted April 16, 2013 Posted April 16, 2013 Or like it's stupid to run the offense as it's designed which, like most modern offenses, is geared toward the high-percentage passing game. Which is why I like your mention of Brady. Take what's there and then kill the D when they try to take it away. Him and Welker have made a living off of five yard patterns. GO BILLS!!! Yeah, trust me, I love the deep passes and the lack of one killed our offense. But the majority of throws are quick, short passes. Yuo take what the defense gives you and then boom, you hit the deep.
KOKBILLS Posted April 16, 2013 Posted April 16, 2013 Just want to point out that the local reporters from Philly and Jacksonville that have been on the NFL Network's Path To The Draft the past couple of shows were pretty positive the Eagles and Jags would pass on Geno...They both gave pretty decent arguments for why each team would not chance taking a QB that high this year...Neither was negative about Geno necessarily...They just felt that both teams already had young QB's to develop, and veteran QB's on the roster....There does not seem to be the pressure to get a Rookie in that Buffalo has... All of a sudden I'm thinking that IF Geno goes from 1-7, it's going to be a team coming up and jumping the Bills...And I don't think that is a very good possibility at this point because I can't really see any team except the Jets directly behind the Bills with a huge QB need...And I don't think the Jets want to go QB in Round #1 anyway...Maybe if they move Revis and pick up that extra 1st Round pick...We'll see... Anyway...Just wanted to pass this on...Just something I've been thinking about...And it's just my opinion...But I think the most interesting thing that could happen in this Draft is seeing Geno slide to #8...Then seeing what will happen there...That will be some big time drama for 10 mins...Can you imagine if the Bills Draft Nassib there and pass on Geno?...Oh boy!!! That will cause some discussion...
Magox Posted April 16, 2013 Posted April 16, 2013 Just want to point out that the local reporters from Philly and Jacksonville that have been on the NFL Network's Path To The Draft the past couple of shows were pretty positive the Eagles and Jags would pass on Geno...They both gave pretty decent arguments for why each team would not chance taking a QB that high this year...Neither was negative about Geno necessarily...They just felt that both teams already had young QB's to develop, and veteran QB's on the roster....There does not seem to be the pressure to get a Rookie in that Buffalo has... All of a sudden I'm thinking that IF Geno goes from 1-7, it's going to be a team coming up and jumping the Bills...And I don't think that is a very good possibility at this point because I can't really see any team except the Jets directly behind the Bills with a huge QB need...And I don't think the Jets want to go QB in Round #1 anyway...Maybe if they move Revis and pick up that extra 1st Round pick...We'll see... Anyway...Just wanted to pass this on...Just something I've been thinking about...And it's just my opinion...But I think the most interesting thing that could happen in this Draft is seeing Geno slide to #8...Then seeing what will happen there...That will be some big time drama for 10 mins...Can you imagine if the Bills Draft Nassib there and pass on Geno?...Oh boy!!! That will cause some discussion... I fear having the opportunity to draft Geno. I think the pressure would be too great for Nix to pass on him if he is available. I just don't have a good gut feeling with Geno.
Kelly the Dog Posted April 16, 2013 Posted April 16, 2013 I fear having the opportunity to draft Geno. I think the pressure would be too great for Nix to pass on him if he is available. I just don't have a good gut feeling with Geno. I really don't see how the pressure mounts on Nix one bit. You don't think they have spent the last month thinking out and discussing this exact scenario. They already know, in all likelihood, if they are taking Geno with the #8 pick if he is available (or will by Wednesday the day before the draft, as Buddy just said yesterday), DEPENDENT upon who else they love at another position is available. And they already have them rated against each other. The tough stuff is happening now or already happened, about how much you like Geno versus, say, Jordan or Patterson or Mingo or whomever, it doesn't matter. I don't see how Geno slipping in the draft adds anymore pressure on Nix to pick him whatsoever. That has probably been discussed as much as whether Marrone, Hackett and Whaley think Nassib is a franchise QB. The only thing they don't know, would be the trade offers that suddenly come up should Geno fall. That could be the pressure, to take the trade down, which they would love to do, and go after another QB plus one player, or take Geno. But they have already gone through that scenario a million times too, with likely partners.
KOKBILLS Posted April 16, 2013 Posted April 16, 2013 I really don't see how the pressure mounts on Nix one bit. You don't think they have spent the last month thinking out and discussing this exact scenario. They already know, in all likelihood, if they are taking Geno with the #8 pick if he is available (or will by Wednesday the day before the draft, as Buddy just said yesterday), DEPENDENT upon who else they love at another position is available. And they already have them rated against each other. The tough stuff is happening now or already happened, about how much you like Geno versus, say, Jordan or Patterson or Mingo or whomever, it doesn't matter. I don't see how Geno slipping in the draft adds anymore pressure on Nix to pick him whatsoever. That has probably been discussed as much as whether Marrone, Hackett and Whaley think Nassib is a franchise QB. The only thing they don't know, would be the trade offers that suddenly come up should Geno fall. That could be the pressure, to take the trade down, which they would love to do, and go after another QB plus one player, or take Geno. But they have already gone through that scenario a million times too, with likely partners. Agreed...I'm just hoping this happens (Geno being available at #8) because no matter what the Bills do it will cause the most drama...
Magox Posted April 16, 2013 Posted April 16, 2013 I really don't see how the pressure mounts on Nix one bit. You don't think they have spent the last month thinking out and discussing this exact scenario. They already know, in all likelihood, if they are taking Geno with the #8 pick if he is available (or will by Wednesday the day before the draft, as Buddy just said yesterday), DEPENDENT upon who else they love at another position is available. And they already have them rated against each other. The tough stuff is happening now or already happened, about how much you like Geno versus, say, Jordan or Patterson or Mingo or whomever, it doesn't matter. I don't see how Geno slipping in the draft adds anymore pressure on Nix to pick him whatsoever. That has probably been discussed as much as whether Marrone, Hackett and Whaley think Nassib is a franchise QB. The only thing they don't know, would be the trade offers that suddenly come up should Geno fall. That could be the pressure, to take the trade down, which they would love to do, and go after another QB plus one player, or take Geno. But they have already gone through that scenario a million times too, with likely partners. Here is why I say this, it's not so much that I believe that they wouldn't know what to do when the time comes if he's available, but more on the aspect of how the pressure of his perceived value amongst most draftniks, "experts" etc. That pressure would make it very difficult for him to possibly pass on Geno, who is widely viewed as this years top prospect. I'm just hypothesizing here, what if they like Nassib or another prospect a little better, or what if they have serious concerns with Geno? The thought has to be there, the thought of passing up on Geno, this year's top QB prospect, and he winds up living up to his top QB billing. He will never live it down, just about everyone has Geno as the top QB, ends up with a good career and he passes on him for some other player, or even worse yet, chooses a QB other than Geno who doesn't have nearly the career Geno had. That's the nightmare scenario that could possibly go through his head, IF he has serious doubts about Geno.
Kelly the Dog Posted April 16, 2013 Posted April 16, 2013 Here is why I say this, it's not so much that I believe that they wouldn't know what to do when the time comes if he's available, but more on the aspect of how the pressure of his perceived value amongst most draftniks, "experts" etc. That pressure would make it very difficult for him to possibly pass on Geno, who is widely viewed as this years top prospect. I'm just hypothesizing here, what if they like Nassib or another prospect a little better, or what if they have serious concerns with Geno? The thought has to be there, the thought of passing up on Geno, this year's top QB prospect, and he winds up living up to his top QB billing. He will never live it down, just about everyone has Geno as the top QB, ends up with a good career and he passes on him for some other player, or even worse yet, chooses a QB other than Geno who doesn't have nearly the career Geno had. That's the nightmare scenario that could possibly go through his head, IF he has serious doubts about Geno. I understand. I answered this question before that I think Buddy Nix is extremely stubborn, and I personally don't think it would affect him at all. In fact, it might embolden him to do what he thinks is right even more.
Magox Posted April 16, 2013 Posted April 16, 2013 I understand. I answered this question before that I think Buddy Nix is extremely stubborn, and I personally don't think it would affect him at all. In fact, it might embolden him to do what he thinks is right even more. I would hope that's the conviction he would have, rather than allowing public pressure to dictate or influence his decision making process.
Kelly the Dog Posted April 16, 2013 Posted April 16, 2013 I would hope that's the conviction he would have, rather than allowing public pressure to dictate or influence his decision making process. Right. In this case his stubbornness would serve him well. Except, of course, if he's wrong.
KOKBILLS Posted April 16, 2013 Posted April 16, 2013 Right. In this case his stubbornness would serve him well. Except, of course, if he's wrong.
K-9 Posted April 17, 2013 Posted April 17, 2013 I understand. I answered this question before that I think Buddy Nix is extremely stubborn, and I personally don't think it would affect him at all. In fact, it might embolden him to do what he thinks is right even more. I know for a fact that Buddy Nix could give two schits what any draftnik expert thinks regarding ANY player on his board. There is no pressure on Nix in that regard. That's not to say he isn't under pressure, he is. But it's not from any external source. GO BILLS!!!
NoSaint Posted April 17, 2013 Posted April 17, 2013 I know for a fact that Buddy Nix could give two schits what any draftnik expert thinks regarding ANY player on his board. There is no pressure on Nix in that regard. That's not to say he isn't under pressure, he is. But it's not from any external source. GO BILLS!!! We will see - he has a new boss that might be looking at those. Though not direct, there may be indirect.
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