Configuration of Team Right Now - drafted starters - NIX

[San Jose Bills Fan]

less than half? Less than a quarter

 

Well it's still less than half AND, the point remains the same.

 

No?

[San-O]

I don't have the energy to beat up on Buddy more than I have. Res Ipsa Loquitur.

 

alea iacta est

[Mr. WEO]

I don't have the energy to beat up on Buddy more than I have. Res Ipsa Loquitur.

 

Indeed.

 

quod erat demonstrandum

[habes1280]

To be fair, name the starters and projected starters Nix is responsible for -- drafted or otherwise. That's not being an apologist, it's just what is.

Exactly. The front office should get credit (Whaley, in particular, as Director of Pro Personnel) for the free agents they've signed and plugged into the lineup. Chandler and Urbik might have been drafted by other teams, but neither was a viable enough prospect for their original teams to protect them or match the Bills' offer. It's to the front office's credit that they're in Buffalo. Edited April 14, 2013 by habes1280

[habes1280]

That said, I don't think your argument is off-base. The Bills' drafts during Nix's tenure haven't yielded the kind of talent he promised, or justified his philosophy that the team would be built through the draft. So to take your argument from a different angle, let's look at each of the Bills' drafts during Nix's run...

 

2010 Draft

 

1) C.J. Spiller (starter) (Pro Bowl alternate) (#9)

2) Torrell Troupe

3) Alex Carrington

4) Marcus Easley

5) Ed Wang (not in league)

6) Arthur Moats

7) Danny Batten (not in league)

8) Levi Brown (not in league)

9) Kyle Calloway (not in league)

 

2011 Draft

 

1) Marcell Dareus (starter) (only player in top 7 NOT elected to Pro Bowl) (#3)

2) Aaron Williams (starter)

3) Kelvin Sheppard (starter)

4) Da-Norris Searcy (projected starter)

5) Chris Hairston

6) Johnny White (not in league)

7) Chris White

8) Justin Rogers

9) Michael Jasper (not in league)

 

2012

 

1) Stephon Gilmore (starter) (#10)

2) Cordy Glenn (starter)

3) T.J. Graham

4) Nigel Bradham (starter)

5) Ron Brooks

6) Zebrie Sanders

7) Tank Carder (not on team)

8) Mark Asper (not on team)

9) John Potter (not in league)

 

That's 27 picks (including a top-10 pick in each draft). 1 Pro Bowl alternate. 7-8 starters (several of whom the team would likely choose to replace with better talent). 9 not on team. 7 not in league.

 

Those fortunes could change. Guys like Ron Brooks and Zebrie Sanders and Alex Carrington might grow into serviceable starters at their positions. Others, like Aaron Williams, might benefit from a move to a new position. But for a team with an empty cupboard looking to build itself through the draft alone (as they were in 2010), it's hard to make a solid case for their draft day performances.

 

In terms of pro personnel, I think we've done well. We've brought in a lot of talent, some of them street free agents and practice squad fodder on other teams, and have seen a lot of productivity from them. But where the draft is concerned, for a team drafting near the top of the order in each and every round, our results have been substandard. It doesn't take this long to rebuild if your front office is drafting well.

[Numark]

Well it's still less than half AND, the point remains the same.

 

No?

 

This is not a lie

[San Jose Bills Fan]

This is not a lie

 

Anyways I like Buddy and wish that his track record were a bit better.

 

It's a fine line though. If a few of his picks who we've partially written off were to surprise us this year (ie- Troup, Sheppard, A Williams) it could dramatically change our view of him.

 

And of course hitting a few home runs in the upcoming draft could do the same.

 

Nix still has an opportunity to re-write his legacy as Bills GM.

[NoSaint]

 

 

Anyways I like Buddy and wish that his track record were a bit better.

 

It's a fine line though. If a few of his picks who we've partially written off were to surprise us this year (ie- Troup, Sheppard, A Williams) it could dramatically change our view of him.

 

And of course hitting a few home runs in the upcoming draft could do the same.

 

Nix still has an opportunity to re-write his legacy as Bills GM.

 

A problem is that we keep switching the defense. This is our 3rd DC and just our 4th draft..... Who was drafted to fit what at this point?

 

Because of that we've had to dedicate extra picks to the d, robbing talent from the otherside. We've wasted those extra picks potentially depending on how they fit the new scheme... And we've had guys in 3 schemes - how do they develop? I think the talent issue is less drafting and more coaching (outside qb)

[ganesh]

You did like 3 positions...... If you are going to do something do it right. Go through each position and see what players he drafted and which free agents he signed

 

I'm interested

 

+1. As a GM, Nix has responsibility for drafting and signing FAs/ The body of work is only complete when both options must be considered.

[NoSaint]

 

 

+1. As a GM, Nix has responsibility for drafting and signing FAs/ The body of work is only complete when both options must be considered.

 

3 years in he's drafted, signed, re-signed, or just generally kept everyone we've got. This roster is his.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

The OP stated the desire to grade Nix's drafting, not to grade him as a GM.

[NoSaint]

The OP stated the desire to grade Nix's drafting, not to grade him as a GM.

 

The two are not independent of each other. Changing scheme 3 times on the D in 4 offseasons has a HUGE impact on roster building - both FA and the draft

[San Jose Bills Fan]

The two are not independent of each other. Changing scheme 3 times on the D in 4 offseasons has a HUGE impact on roster building - both FA and the draft

 

Well look, there was the OP's intent which one can choose to honor or not.

 

But also when people are evaluated, they have strengths and weaknesses. Their work is broken down into categories.

 

For instance a construction superintendent might say to a foreman "You run your crews well, you're organized and communicate well with your workers. On the other hand we feel you need to get better at coordinating work with the other trades and communicating with the general contractor."

 

So while I totally agree with you about the interdependency of drafting and free agency, it's also fair to scrutinize one aspect of Nix's job performance.

[NoSaint]

 

 

Well look, there was the OP's intent which one can choose to honor or not.

 

But also when people are evaluated, they have strengths and weaknesses. Their work is broken down into categories.

 

For instance a construction superintendent might say to a foreman "You run your crews well, you're organized and communicate well with your workers. On the other hand we feel you need to get better at coordinating work with the other trades and communicating with the general contractor."

 

So while I totally agree with you about the interdependency of drafting and free agency, it's also fair to scrutinize one aspect of Nix's job performance.

 

It is, but the number of picks dedicated to skill positions on offense is likely greatly diminished by switching from a cover 2 to a 34 to a 43 and now going into a new scheme. Likewise the effectiveness of those defensive picks are likely diminished based on those returns.

 

Judging the quality of the construction when the plan has been changed several times, drastically, is much trickier than "alright guys who's drafted and starting"

 

Take a guy like carrington - he's played DT, DE, OLB.... You couldn't ask for more from a midrounder that's been moved everywhere - how do you evaluate that pick? He's not a starter, or a guy with huge numbers but I think you can argue he was a solid 3rd rounder that has had to fight uphill to the point of it being borderline ridiculous. The late round guys have it even worse - a guy like moats had the deck stacked against him even further before he even entered the league as a late round guy.... And he's dealt with all this. Did troupes series of injuries mean he was an awful choice, or an unlucky guy? Easley?

 

I'd argue the drafting hasn't been near as atrocious as many point out and that the real roster building problems are more closely tied to a higher level long term vision issue. You can acquire all the best products in the world but if you keep changing the plans and have unlicensed contractors doing the work the house is going to look bad, regardless of the marble countertops, or choice of kitchen appliances installed. Doesn't make them poor or wrong choices.

 

Again, ill say minus the qb issues.

 

 

Gilmore looks like a player, spiller is a player, I'm rough on dareus but I think the kids a player. 3 for 3 on first rounders is a pretty good start at evaluating his drafting.

[TheFunPolice]

Nix is a talent scout who is in way over his head as a GM , which is why he made it to his 70's without being offered the job anywhere else. It wasn't because he was really some genius who the entire league just missed out on until the Bills came along.

 

He belongs cruising the back roads in a rusty old pickup truck checking out prospects at Podunk University. No offense to Nix the man (he seems like a good guy), but he's a clown. A throwback. A caricature. He's not a serious football executive with a forward thinking plan. When I see or hear Nix I think of some combination the 1970's and the movie Waterboy.

 

Proof? He's been an abject failure. The roster might be one of the worst in the league. Where is all this great "talent?" Holes are everywhere. The win/loss record has been abysmal.

 

He has failed to address the QB position because he "had his guy" in Ryan Fitzpatrick. He failed at hiring the right coach. He drafted for a 3-4 then they switched to a 4-3. His prize free agent didn't want to play in a 3-4, now he will be playing in a 3-4.

 

For all the defensive "gems" he has found the defense has been a total joke.

 

I hope the rumors of him retiring after the draft are true. Nix is the opposite of analytics. Nix is a gut feel, voodoo, and lucky rabbit foot kind of guy.

 

Other than all that he's done an incredible job!

[habes1280]

It is, but the number of picks dedicated to skill positions on offense is likely greatly diminished by switching from a cover 2 to a 34 to a 43 and now going into a new scheme. Likewise the effectiveness of those defensive picks are likely diminished based on those returns.

 

Judging the quality of the construction when the plan has been changed several times, drastically, is much trickier than "alright guys who's drafted and starting"

 

Take a guy like carrington - he's played DT, DE, OLB.... You couldn't ask for more from a midrounder that's been moved everywhere - how do you evaluate that pick? He's not a starter, or a guy with huge numbers but I think you can argue he was a solid 3rd rounder that has had to fight uphill to the point of it being borderline ridiculous. The late round guys have it even worse - a guy like moats had the deck stacked against him even further before he even entered the league as a late round guy.... And he's dealt with all this. Did troupes series of injuries mean he was an awful choice, or an unlucky guy? Easley?

 

 

I take your point, the turnover in coaching and schemes has hurt player development, but your point about Carrington is at the heart of our diminished expectations.

 

Carrington wasn't a midround pick. He was a high third rounder, which puts him in the top 100 players taken that year-- ahead of Jimmy Graham and Aaron Hernandez, ahead of NaVorro Bowman, ahead of a host of other highly-touted prospects I'm too lazy to research. The top-100 is where a team that is building from the draft should be acquiring its nucleus. So to have three selections in that range, and to miss on two of them, isn't a success, no matter how adversarial the circumstances were for those players. Kyle Williams underwent the same schematic and coaching transitions, in both the Gailey and Jauron eras, and was always a fixture in the d-line rotation. And while Carrington has shown considerable flashes (especially on special teams), I think you're expecting less from him (and from the guys that drafted him) than you have a right to.

 

I'm not saying that every one of Nix's picks has been middling or worse, and I'm not saying that turnover and scheme changes aren't part of the problem. I'm saying that when Nix got here, the cupboard was bare and the team needed talent. That was HIS assessment. They didn't need "scheme guys"; they needed talent-- guys that could get on the field and be productive across schemes and packages. And over the past three years, he's had first crack at more prospects than most GMs, and he just hasn't brought in the talent that he (and his philosophies) promised. That doesn't make him a disaster of a GM, but it does open him to some criticism from keyboard jockeys like us.

Edited April 15, 2013 by habes1280

[ganesh]

 

 

I take your point, the turnover in coaching and schemes has hurt player development, but your point about Carrington is at the heart of our diminished expectations.

 

Carrington wasn't a midround pick. He was a high third rounder, which puts him in the top 100 players taken that year-- ahead of Jimmy Graham and Aaron Hernandez, ahead of NaVorro Bowman, ahead of a host of other highly-touted prospects I'm too lazy to research. The top-100 is where a team that is building from the draft should be acquiring its nucleus. So to have three selections in that range, and to miss on two of them, isn't a success, no matter how adversarial the circumstances were for those players. Kyle Williams underwent the same schematic and coaching transitions, in both the Gailey and Jauron eras, and was always a fixture in the d-line rotation. And while Carrington has shown considerable flashes (especially on special teams), I think you're expecting less from him (and from the guys that drafted him) than you have a right to.

 

I'm not saying that every one of Nix's picks has been middling or worse, and I'm not saying that turnover and scheme changes aren't part of the problem. I'm saying that when Nix got here, the cupboard was bare and the team needed talent. That was HIS assessment. They didn't need "scheme guys"; they needed talent-- guys that could get on the field and be productive across schemes and packages. And over the past three years, he's had first crack at more prospects than most GMs, and he just hasn't brought in the talent that he (and his philosophies) promised. That doesn't make him a disaster of a GM, but it does open him to some criticism from keyboard jockeys like us.

Jimmy Graham and Hernandez catch passes from Brees and Brady...It is not apples to apples comparison.

[habes1280]

Jimmy Graham and Hernandez catch passes from Brees and Brady...It is not apples to apples comparison.

 

Fair enough. That might not have been the most illuminating sampling of the players still left on the board. But my point was simply that tempering one's expectations of a top-100 pick might be a bit too generous.

 

I don't think that Nix and Co. have been terrible draft managers, and I agree with the posters who point to the success of our first round selections these past three years. I like those guys, too. I just think that for a team committed to building primarily through the draft for those years, and drafting near the top of the order in each round during that span, the results haven't supported the philosophy (one-third of our draft picks in the past three years are no longer in the LEAGUE, let alone contributing to our team). I'm still holding out hope that our fortunes will change-- that we will bring in an impressive crop of prospects this year, and that prospects from previous years will continue to improve and contribute-- but I'm skeptical, and that was my point: that the skepticism among many of the posters in this thread isn't unfounded.