Article: "The Kolb Delusion"

[RuntheDamnBall]

Aaron Rodgers was sacked more than any other QB this season and he seems to be ok. It all comes down to toughness. All these guys are tough, including guys like Trent, but some of these guys can take the hits better than others. I would think someone like Kolb can take hits with the best of them.

I guess. There's only so much toughness can save you from concussions. I think even Jimbo had some in-game effects from those. He was as tough as they come. In this league I prefer a guy who knows how to beat the rush and avoid the contact.

 

The reason Rodgers is really tough is because he can stand in there, take it, and make the team pay for sending the rush. Ultimately it just doesn't work to send the house against him because the D will be exposed somewhere. I'd argue that he's even better at that than Brady, who clearly can be rattled by the rush if it's pervasive enough (see Giants).

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

I don't think anyone was expecting Kolb to come in and be a superstar. Of course, I think the article does in fact omit few things.

 

First, how about Kolb's sack % massively spiking as he went from the Eagles to the Cardinals. It's not just the other players, it's the system. Kolb seemed to be pretty good when in a up-tempo Andy Reid offense. He was less good when expected to drop back, wait, and make things happen...with the worst O-line in the league. The other QB's mentioned weren't the most sackable, but they were pretty close.

 

Second, today we have Marrone saying point blank:

“I don’t think it really is going to change the philosophy on the draft,” said Marrone. ”When the position comes whatever is best for our team to get better I think we’ll go ahead and choose that player wherever it may be. I think that rather than trying… and I don’t want to speak for Buddy (Nix) or anybody else in the organization, but rather than trying to reach or go somewhere that you don’t want to go, you bring the best players in that you can bring in and you have them compete and you’re a better football team

[Dorkington]

The point how the other cardinals QBs had a lower percentage of sacks was a little depressing, cant blame it all on the line when the other guys didnt get sacked like Kolb.

 

That stat is the one that stuck with me as well. Not only were they lower, they must have been much lower, because the one he quoted was that the TEAM stat was in the 8's... meaning the other players must have been really low in order to off set Kolb's numbers...

[Malazan]

That stat is the one that stuck with me as well. Not only were they lower, they must have been much lower, because the one he quoted was that the TEAM stat was in the 8's... meaning the other players must have been really low in order to off set Kolb's numbers...

 

That appears to be poor choice of language on his part.

[Kellyto83TD]

We will draft a QB in the 2nd or move back up into the first. I have thought all along they were researching to see who the next Capernick or Wilson was that they could grab in the 2nd and not waste #8 on.

[BillsBytheBay]

 

 

I dont ever remember a team questioning Rodgers toughness which I cant say for Kolb. Just when I think the Kool-aid drinkers cant get anymore delusional we get a Rodgers-Kolb comparison. And if Kolb had the same attempts as Rodgers and he would of been on pace for a 81 sack season.

I don't think it was a strait up comparison of players, like you believe he is making. Just that you can't strictly say its all Kolb's fault, or the line he played behind. Players play differently. I don't know, but were they winning or losing with the other QB's?

I still would like a QB in the second round just the same.

[starrymessenger]

The point how the other cardinals QBs had a lower percentage of sacks was a little depressing, cant blame it all on the line when the other guys didnt get sacked like Kolb.

Well you know Skelton having a QB rating 30 points below the league average and Kolb having a QB rating above the league average maybe sheds some light on that. Remember too that Whisenhunt always favoured longer developing crossing routes to slants and quick outs. Kolb will pleasantly surprise in Marrone/hackett's O.

[Bills Fan888]

I dont ever remember a team questioning Rodgers toughness which I cant say for Kolb. Just when I think the Kool-aid drinkers cant get anymore delusional we get a Rodgers-Kolb comparison. And if Kolb had the same attempts as Rodgers and he would of been on pace for a 81 sack season.

I never once compared Kolb to Rodgers, I just said that Rodgers was the most sacked QB and he still managed to be the best QB in the league. Kolb seems to be a pretty tough guy and I think he can take a beating better than most.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

This was a really great and funny article.

 

Maybe due to RJ, but I'd much prefer a QB who throws picks than one who takes sacks (and gets injured doing so).

[PS 56]

Great article. It is the true story less the PR of the Bill's front office.

[ColdBlueNorth]

I already wrote that article here.

 

Funny.

 

And a good call - I don't think anyone is fooled into thinking Kolb is the answer at QB for the Bills. He is a bandaid, till they can get a talented prospect behind center.

[2003Contenders]

A few things...

 

1. First, this is a well-written and thoughtful article, but the author is trying to make a point and as such somewhat skews the data in the favor of the point that he is making. He gets around this by referring to the "hypothetical" Kolb versus the "actual" one. The hypothetical Kolb is the one that he COULD be if the circumstances were more ideal as opposed to and unattainable being.

 

2. Kolb only has 21 starts -- or a little under a full year's worth. Thus, the data can be heavily skewed by one or two really bad games in which he was sacked a ton. That is exactly what happened in his final 2-3 games as a Cardinal. Really, the Cardinals 2012 season turned two weeks before they played the Bills when they played a heavy-blitzing Dolphins defense. Even though the Cardinals won that game, the Dolphins provided a blueprint on how to thwart the Cardinals and their over-matched offensive line (which also failed to get anything resembling a running game going). The next week the 4-0 Cardinals went up against heavily blitzing Rams defense. Kolb never had a chance in that game and took a beating.

 

In those 2 games, Kolb was sacked a whopping 17 times.The next week when he played the Bills -- well, anyone who saw that game had to have seen that he rarely even had time to set and plant his feet. Actually, I was impressed by his toughness in that game. For a guy not known for his mobility, he managed to escape a number of jailbreaks and wound up rushing for about 70 yards.

 

Getting back to my point, those 17 sacks came in 2 games. Kolb was sacked a grand total of 10 times in the other 4 games. For his Arizona career, Kolb was sacked a total of 57 times in 15 games. Again, 17 of them came in 2 games. Hence, he was sacked 40 times in the other 13 games behind a terrible Arizona OL -- roughly 3 sacks per game. In those 2 sack-happy games, he dropped back to pass 125 times. Thus, his sack rate in those 2 terrible outings was an eye-popping 21.6%. In his other 13 games with Arizona, he dropped back to pass a total of 378 times; his sack rate was a much more manageable 10.6%. Oh, wait -- that is the same 10.6% that he averaged in Philly prior to the trade to Arizona!

 

 

3. Now, let's talk about the sack disparity between Kolb and the other Arizona QBs. For the sake of this discussion, I will compare Kolb to John Skelton, who was the primary "other" Quarterback and who played an almost identical number of snaps to Kolb in 2011/2012 -- and who was supposedly chosen (over Kolb) to be the starter heading into 2012. While, it may be true that Skelton took fewer sacks, let's look at their productivity:

 

Player Games Atts Comps Yards Yards/Comp Comp% TD Ints

Kolb 15 436 255 3124 7.165 58.5 17 11

Skelton 15 476 260 3045 6.397 54.6 13 23

 

Clearly, Kolb was superior in every aspect. More yards, high completion percentage, more TD passes, fewer INTs.

 

Regarding the sack "disparity", well, in his first game as a starter after Kolb went down last season, Skelton was sacked 7 times. Hence the sack issues that plagued the Cardinals in that 4 game stretch -- the 27 I alluded to in the Miami and St. Louis games, the 5 against the Bills, and the 7 the following week against the Vikings -- were clearly a team-wide epidemic. The Cardinals must have done something to solve the problem, as Skelton was only sacked 6 times in his other 4 appearances in 2012.

 

So it is unfair -- and even lazy on the part of anyone who tries to compare Kolb to Rob Johnson, who (as we all know) had 0% instincts in the pocket.)

 

I am not saying that Kolb is the second coming. I also do believe that he takes too many sacks (even 10.6% is not very good) -- but at one point Andy Reid (who knows a thing or two about QBs) thought enough of him to invest a high 2nd round pick on him. Thought enough of him to trade away Donovan McNabb so that Kolb could start. Thought enough of him to award him the starting job out of training camp (in 2010) after competing with Michael Vick for the starting job. The Cardinals as recently as 2011 thought enough of him to trade away a high 2nd rounder PLUS a recent first round draft pick to acquire him.

 

He may not be the long-term solution, but if the offensive line can keep him standing, I believe that he is a certain upgrade over Fitz. That should be good enough to keep the starting job until a ready-for-prime-time rookie option comes along.

[All_Pro_Bills]

So the guy is a master of the obvious. Long on bitching, short on real solutions. What other options did any of the teams have at this point? A trade for Tom Brady?

The point made is grounded in reality. What were the options here? Trade for Flynn, make a play for Palmer? The Bills signed a QB with NFL experience, some good, more bad, for relatively little money and did not give up any other assets, players or draft choices to do it. This gives the team a little more flexibility in the draft.

 

There are plenty of question marks surrounding Kolb and to expect him to lead the league in any positive category is a fantasy at this point but in my view this was the best move the team could make at the time given the circumstances.

 

The Bills situation in Buddy's language "you're at the bar still alone, it's 3:55 am, and the lights are about to go on. You can't be picky at this point. You got to make a move on what's there not wait on what you want which just ain't gonna happen."

[BillsBytheBay]

A few things...

 

1. First, this is a well-written and thoughtful article, but the author is trying to make a point and as such somewhat skews the data in the favor of the point that he is making. He gets around this by referring to the "hypothetical" Kolb versus the "actual" one. The hypothetical Kolb is the one that he COULD be if the circumstances were more ideal as opposed to and unattainable being.

 

2. Kolb only has 21 starts -- or a little under a full year's worth. Thus, the data can be heavily skewed by one or two really bad games in which he was sacked a ton. That is exactly what happened in his final 2-3 games as a Cardinal. Really, the Cardinals 2012 season turned two weeks before they played the Bills when they played a heavy-blitzing Dolphins defense. Even though the Cardinals won that game, the Dolphins provided a blueprint on how to thwart the Cardinals and their over-matched offensive line (which also failed to get anything resembling a running game going). The next week the 4-0 Cardinals went up against heavily blitzing Rams defense. Kolb never had a chance in that game and took a beating.

 

In those 2 games, Kolb was sacked a whopping 17 times.The next week when he played the Bills -- well, anyone who saw that game had to have seen that he rarely even had time to set and plant his feet. Actually, I was impressed by his toughness in that game. For a guy not known for his mobility, he managed to escape a number of jailbreaks and wound up rushing for about 70 yards.

 

Getting back to my point, those 17 sacks came in 2 games. Kolb was sacked a grand total of 10 times in the other 4 games. For his Arizona career, Kolb was sacked a total of 57 times in 15 games. Again, 17 of them came in 2 games. Hence, he was sacked 40 times in the other 13 games behind a terrible Arizona OL -- roughly 3 sacks per game. In those 2 sack-happy games, he dropped back to pass 125 times. Thus, his sack rate in those 2 terrible outings was an eye-popping 21.6%. In his other 13 games with Arizona, he dropped back to pass a total of 378 times; his sack rate was a much more manageable 10.6%. Oh, wait -- that is the same 10.6% that he averaged in Philly prior to the trade to Arizona!

 

 

3. Now, let's talk about the sack disparity between Kolb and the other Arizona QBs. For the sake of this discussion, I will compare Kolb to John Skelton, who was the primary "other" Quarterback and who played an almost identical number of snaps to Kolb in 2011/2012 -- and who was supposedly chosen (over Kolb) to be the starter heading into 2012. While, it may be true that Skelton took fewer sacks, let's look at their productivity:

 

Player Games Atts Comps Yards Yards/Comp Comp% TD Ints

Kolb 15 436 255 3124 7.165 58.5 17 11

Skelton 15 476 260 3045 6.397 54.6 13 23

 

Clearly, Kolb was superior in every aspect. More yards, high completion percentage, more TD passes, fewer INTs.

 

Regarding the sack "disparity", well, in his first game as a starter after Kolb went down last season, Skelton was sacked 7 times. Hence the sack issues that plagued the Cardinals in that 4 game stretch -- the 27 I alluded to in the Miami and St. Louis games, the 5 against the Bills, and the 7 the following week against the Vikings -- were clearly a team-wide epidemic. The Cardinals must have done something to solve the problem, as Skelton was only sacked 6 times in his other 4 appearances in 2012.

 

So it is unfair -- and even lazy on the part of anyone who tries to compare Kolb to Rob Johnson, who (as we all know) had 0% instincts in the pocket.)

 

I am not saying that Kolb is the second coming. I also do believe that he takes too many sacks (even 10.6% is not very good) -- but at one point Andy Reid (who knows a thing or two about QBs) thought enough of him to invest a high 2nd round pick on him. Thought enough of him to trade away Donovan McNabb so that Kolb could start. Thought enough of him to award him the starting job out of training camp (in 2010) after competing with Michael Vick for the starting job. The Cardinals as recently as 2011 thought enough of him to trade away a high 2nd rounder PLUS a recent first round draft pick to acquire him.

 

He may not be the long-term solution, but if the offensive line can keep him standing, I believe that he is a certain upgrade over Fitz. That should be good enough to keep the starting job until a ready-for-prime-time rookie option comes along.

outstanding. Thank you for the research as well. Great post.

[Cash]

2. Kolb only has 21 starts -- or a little under a full year's worth.

 

Even if you make the Super Bowl as a wildcard, that's only 20 games. Are you counting preseason?

[Pirate Angel]

Who is delusional about the Kolb pickup? We hardly have a qb on the roster so we added a veteran...we still need another one its obvious by our visitations that we will draft one. Our QBing this season will most likely still be bad. BTW did we not try and restructure Fitz's contract? Im fairly certain we did. IF TBD doesn't have any delusional posts about Kolb then none exists..I have not scene anyone post how he is going to take us to the playoffs.

Edited April 9, 2013 by BILLriant

[K-9]

This was a really great and funny article.

 

Maybe due to RJ, but I'd much prefer a QB who throws picks than one who takes sacks (and gets injured doing so).

 

That is anathema to every coach I've ever met, at any level of the game. There are worse things than taking a sack. Indeed, every QB coach I know will instruct his players to take the sack rather than risk the INT by forcing something that isn't there. The trick is finding a QB good enough to know when there REALLY isn't something there.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

A few things...

 

1. First, this is a well-written and thoughtful article, but the author is trying to make a point and as such somewhat skews the data in the favor of the point that he is making. He gets around this by referring to the "hypothetical" Kolb versus the "actual" one. The hypothetical Kolb is the one that he COULD be if the circumstances were more ideal as opposed to and unattainable being.

 

2. Kolb only has 21 starts -- or a little under a full year's worth. Thus, the data can be heavily skewed by one or two really bad games in which he was sacked a ton. That is exactly what happened in his final 2-3 games as a Cardinal. Really, the Cardinals 2012 season turned two weeks before they played the Bills when they played a heavy-blitzing Dolphins defense. Even though the Cardinals won that game, the Dolphins provided a blueprint on how to thwart the Cardinals and their over-matched offensive line (which also failed to get anything resembling a running game going). The next week the 4-0 Cardinals went up against heavily blitzing Rams defense. Kolb never had a chance in that game and took a beating.

 

In those 2 games, Kolb was sacked a whopping 17 times.The next week when he played the Bills -- well, anyone who saw that game had to have seen that he rarely even had time to set and plant his feet. Actually, I was impressed by his toughness in that game. For a guy not known for his mobility, he managed to escape a number of jailbreaks and wound up rushing for about 70 yards.

 

Getting back to my point, those 17 sacks came in 2 games. Kolb was sacked a grand total of 10 times in the other 4 games. For his Arizona career, Kolb was sacked a total of 57 times in 15 games. Again, 17 of them came in 2 games. Hence, he was sacked 40 times in the other 13 games behind a terrible Arizona OL -- roughly 3 sacks per game. In those 2 sack-happy games, he dropped back to pass 125 times. Thus, his sack rate in those 2 terrible outings was an eye-popping 21.6%. In his other 13 games with Arizona, he dropped back to pass a total of 378 times; his sack rate was a much more manageable 10.6%. Oh, wait -- that is the same 10.6% that he averaged in Philly prior to the trade to Arizona!

 

 

3. Now, let's talk about the sack disparity between Kolb and the other Arizona QBs. For the sake of this discussion, I will compare Kolb to John Skelton, who was the primary "other" Quarterback and who played an almost identical number of snaps to Kolb in 2011/2012 -- and who was supposedly chosen (over Kolb) to be the starter heading into 2012. While, it may be true that Skelton took fewer sacks, let's look at their productivity:

 

Player Games Atts Comps Yards Yards/Comp Comp% TD Ints

Kolb 15 436 255 3124 7.165 58.5 17 11

Skelton 15 476 260 3045 6.397 54.6 13 23

 

Clearly, Kolb was superior in every aspect. More yards, high completion percentage, more TD passes, fewer INTs.

 

Regarding the sack "disparity", well, in his first game as a starter after Kolb went down last season, Skelton was sacked 7 times. Hence the sack issues that plagued the Cardinals in that 4 game stretch -- the 27 I alluded to in the Miami and St. Louis games, the 5 against the Bills, and the 7 the following week against the Vikings -- were clearly a team-wide epidemic. The Cardinals must have done something to solve the problem, as Skelton was only sacked 6 times in his other 4 appearances in 2012.

 

So it is unfair -- and even lazy on the part of anyone who tries to compare Kolb to Rob Johnson, who (as we all know) had 0% instincts in the pocket.)

 

I am not saying that Kolb is the second coming. I also do believe that he takes too many sacks (even 10.6% is not very good) -- but at one point Andy Reid (who knows a thing or two about QBs) thought enough of him to invest a high 2nd round pick on him. Thought enough of him to trade away Donovan McNabb so that Kolb could start. Thought enough of him to award him the starting job out of training camp (in 2010) after competing with Michael Vick for the starting job. The Cardinals as recently as 2011 thought enough of him to trade away a high 2nd rounder PLUS a recent first round draft pick to acquire him.

 

He may not be the long-term solution, but if the offensive line can keep him standing, I believe that he is a certain upgrade over Fitz. That should be good enough to keep the starting job until a ready-for-prime-time rookie option comes along.

 

Nice breakdown. Things look different when not looking at stats in a vaccuum.

 

I don't know if he's better than Fitz or not. And that's not saying much anywayl. Time will tell. But nobody is under the illusion that the QB search is over, that's for sure.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[RealityCheck]

That article is stupid. Teams have to start somebody. 32 teams and that's about 92 to 96 QB spots to fill. Only about a dozen or so are worth a damn. When bad teams reshuffle the bad QB deck, they know what they've been dealt regardless of what they say. Kolb as the least desirable QB goes to the least desirable team. A marriage made in heaven. My expectations are so low that all he has to do is throw a 50 yard bomb to SJ for one score and that will make my season.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

That is anathema to every coach I've ever met, at any level of the game. There are worse things than taking a sack. Indeed, every QB coach I know will instruct his players to take the sack rather than risk the INT by forcing something that isn't there. The trick is finding a QB good enough to know when there REALLY isn't something there.

 

I agree with you, but I guess my point is that in a comparison of evils, I'd rather have a QB who takes a lot of bad risks (like Fitz) than a QB who takes a lot of sacks and no risks (like [insert the name of just about every other QB we've had]).

 

Some QB's also can take sacks, and recover with big plays. Roethlisberger comes to mind. You can live with him taking a sack on 2nd down, because he can make plays and convert on 3rd and 15.

 

The worst was a guy like Trent Edwards. He'd take a sack, and the drive was over, because he couldn't complete more than a 2-yard pass.

[Gordio]

 

Aaron Rodgers was sacked more than any other QB this season and he seems to be ok. It all comes down to toughness. All these guys are tough, including guys like Trent, but some of these guys can take the hits better than others. I would think someone like Kolb can take hits with the best of them.

 

& Rodgers has a cannon for right arm, which Kolb does not. Please don't compare Kolb to Rodgers, that is just being silly. Rodgers makes throws that no other QB in the league even dreams of making & he gets away with them for the most part because he is that talented. I am honestly starting to think also the Bills are going QB @ 8 & I think the guy is going to be Nassib.

Edited April 9, 2013 by Gordio