Trade Downs : The 4 Most Likely

[Kirby Jackson]

I see the Saints needing an OT and perhaps may want to trade their #1 at 15 to move up to #8, also giving up their #2.

 

I can see them

Yep, why on earth would the Bills trade down at all, and or often? This is Buddy Nix you are talking about! You know, they guy who loves HIS picks like his children.

 

Anyway I'm hoping the Bills go offense this year with that #8 OT / OG / WR

 

The Saints don't have a #2

[KOKBILLS]

Austin, woods and Williams...maybe a linemen, like Jones or Pugh instead.

 

Right because the Bills don't need a QB in their first couple picks...

 

Seriously...If the Bills trade down it will be with the sole desire to get in line for the QB they like...At least that's what I think...I doubt very much all the efforts they have gone to to bring in these QB prospects will result in a late 2nd to 4th round pick...But we'll see I guess...

Edited April 11, 2013 by KOKBILLS

[dogman]

The trade-downs that I've heard mentioned the most often, from most likely to least:

 

1. Minnesota. They have the #23 and #25 in RD1, and their top 2 priorities are CB and DT43. Our bait would be Xavier Rhodes, Star Lotulelei, and Sheldon Richardson at 8. Minnesota has also been rumored to want to leapfrog Chicago. The other trade involves the #23, #52, #83 and #102 for our #8 and #41 (less attractive IMHO).

 

2. Cowboys. They have #18 and #47, and their top 2 priorities are DT43 and DE43, Bjoern Werner, Ziggy Ansah, Star Lotulelei, and Sheldon Richardson are the bait to net those two picks.

 

3. San Francisco. They have #31, #34, #61, #74, #93 in the first 3 rounds, and their top priorities are TE, FS, SS, DE34 and DT34. Eifert, Ertz, Vaccaro, Sly Williams, Datone Jones, and Jesse Williams would be gone where they pick.

 

4. Cincy. They have #21 and #37 and their top 2 priorities are SILB, SS, CB and RB. Kenny Vaccaro and Xavier Rhodes would be the bait for them.

 

Bills' Minnesota tradedown mock for the Minnesota #23 and #25 pick, using DraftTek's Simulator:

1 23 Arthur Brown ILB Kansas State ---Bills visit

1 25 Johnthan Banks CB Mississippi State ---Bills visit

2 41 Tyler Wilson QB Arkansas ---Bills visit

3 71 Terrance Williams WRF Baylor

4 105 William Campbell DE34 Michigan

5 143 Gavin Escobar TE San Diego State

6 177 Buffalo Ty Powell OLB34 Harding

 

The other MIN trade gives us:

1 23 Tavon Austin WR WVU

1 25 Kevin Minter ILB LSU

2 53 Robert Woods WRF USC

3 71 Tyler Wilson QB Arkansas

3 83 Terrance Williams WRF Baylor

4 102 Travis Kelce TE Cincinnati

4 105 Terron Armstead OT Arkansas - Pine Bluff

5 143 Malliciah Goodman DE34 Clemson

6 177 Cobi Hamilton WRF Arkansas

 

Well thought out piece. Trading down to get picks is a great way to start rebuilding a team. You just have to "right" on some of them.

Edited April 11, 2013 by dogman

[Joe Miner]

I'm not as huge of a fan of Arthur Brown as many have recently become. Good solid Rd 2 LB, IMO.

 

He's not the next Ray Lewis.

[HeHateMe]

Don't you guys know that Nix doesn't trade back in the draft... he just picks where he is slotted..

 

..unless there is a speedy WR in the 3rd round that has 4th or 5th round value then he's on it!!

[bigdogtim]

Sorry, but I cannot help myself. If he truly is on it, then is he ON IT LIKE A MOFO???

[RK_BillsFan]

Shoving a QB pick that far down? Yeah let's just keep putting it off like they have for so many drafts now.

 

Ya lets use a high pick on a pretty much average draft class of QBS that are all pretty much the same. To be honest, he doesn't have any weapons to throw too when he gets here even if we draft the WR i suggest it's no given they will be able to produce on the next level. Just because you have a QB doesn't mean you instantly start to win. You need a line to stop him from getting destroyed and people to throw too.

 

I'm perfectly fine with drafting a QB late in this draft and filling in gaps we have aiming for our new systems this year and drafting QBs higher in the next 2 seasons. This isn't last year. There is no Luck or RG3 sitting there. Look at how completely split the analysts are on who the top QB is. Geno is considered the top pick, but I'm sure you can find articles that say Tyler Wilson is better, or that Matt Barkley will be better. There were areticles that said E.J was the top pick because of his high ceiling and also that Ryan Nassib was the true number 1 guy.

 

We have imo the following holes on the team:

 

QB/WR/LB/CB/TE/OL(this is a shuffle thing and evaluation level of talent and who can mesh well together)

 

I'll go position by position and give my opinion of it's current situation(amount of * is what i consider priority):

 

*QB - Not a good place to be but..... 3 cheap QBS, kolb has never had a Oline and losing our 2 guards does suck but the BIlls always seem to have a decent line. West Coast plays are generally shorter too, soooo line doesn't have to hold up as long. IMO i'm ok with our situation for now. Overall, serviceable but eventually needs to be improved. I actually like the talent in the mid rounds. Also note that this simulator is working purely on numbers and what was a perceived need of teams. For instance, i don't think the giants are taking a QB in the 5th round.

 

***WR- We have 1 WR as far as i'm concerned, and a bunch of unproven talent. This is an urgent area of need. What good is a QB with no one to throw too. This NEEDS to be addressed in this draft. The WR talent runs extremely deep. Should be able to find 2 starters ( considering our current group this isn't far fetched)

 

***LB- ....... Do i even need to note how bad our situation is here? I believe Parcell's was quoted as saying you can never have to many good LBs. Again this is a draft where there is not only a good depth at LB but also Hybrid players that can be OLB or DE. Something our new scheme would love to use. Has to be addressed this draft. No discussion to be had.

 

*CB- We need 1 more. McKelvin can play well sometimes but gets burned too often. We have i believe Ron Brooks who was looking really good until his foot was injured. We don't need to get someone amazing, but we need 1 more. There are some good CB's that I think will slip through to the middle and later rounds where they will be a great steal. Considering our D is in transition and how bad it was last year.... I would like to see it addressed since it would also solidify our back end.

 

TE- Decent talent here, but it's an evolving position. Seems to be a lot of hit or miss and fiding players that block and can run/catch are rare. Also need to find one that wasn't just a system player. We have a lot of Te's on the team, and i'd rather us wait a bit before really addressing it. See how the new coaching staff uses what we have since we kept dickerson. Would not care if we did not pick a TE in the draft.

 

**OL- This is.... hard for me. Because of how much linemen tend to shuffle. We clearly could use 1 or 2 more linemen. There is a good depth of talent across the line. I feel like we could easily get a good 1-2 linemen that could either start for us or be great back ups and get them in the later rounds. I would like to see this addressed in this draft because we need to be able to run, need to keep Kolb upright, and if we start a rookie QB in the near future i don't want him to end up like destroyed because he never gets a good chance to throw. I feel this is a need in the later rounds.

 

To recap:

 

WR- Desperate need

LB- Extremely Desperate Need

OL- Need to shore up

QB- Look for someone to clearly be the future of the franchise.

CB- Should address to solidify the back

TE- could care less.

[Kirby Jackson]

I think when talking about a trade down you need to think about the players that someone would trade up for. The 2 guys that I could see someone coming up to 8 for are Dee Milner and Lane Johnson (assuming that Fisher and Joekel are gone). I think that there are pretty substantial dropoffs from those guys to the next guy on the board at those positions. Doubt Milner will be there but it's possible. I think that Johnson will be. Look for teams that need a tackle or CB.

[Astrobot]

We'll be re-simulating the draft after every pick on Thursday and Friday night, offering the best alternatives for each team, and commenting on every pick after it's been made.

 

My money's on tradedown with MIN, then taking QB, WR, WR, CB, TE, O-Lineman, FS.

 

I was pleased to have been made editor this year at DraftTek, and we've done real well, so I'm being flown out to Vegas for 5 days on DraftTek's expense, and five of us will keep you informed during the draft from poolside. Thank you to those who looked at DraftTek's mocks, used our simulator, our new trade chart, and our big board. The Draft is pure fun and my passion, and someday those posters who take this all too seriously will get it.

[Rubes]

We'll be re-simulating the draft after every pick on Thursday and Friday night, offering the best alternatives for each team, and commenting on every pick after it's been made.

 

My money's on tradedown with MIN, then taking QB, WR, WR, CB, TE, O-Lineman, FS.

 

I was pleased to have been made editor this year at DraftTek, and we've done real well, so I'm being flown out to Vegas for 5 days on DraftTek's expense, and five of us will keep you informed during the draft from poolside. Thank you to those who looked at DraftTek's mocks, used our simulator, our new trade chart, and our big board. The Draft is pure fun and my passion, and someday those posters who take this all too seriously will get it.

 

Sweet, good work. Thanks for keeping us up to date on that.

[3rdand12]

We'll be re-simulating the draft after every pick on Thursday and Friday night, offering the best alternatives for each team, and commenting on every pick after it's been made.

 

My money's on tradedown with MIN, then taking QB, WR, WR, CB, TE, O-Lineman, FS.

 

I was pleased to have been made editor this year at DraftTek, and we've done real well, so I'm being flown out to Vegas for 5 days on DraftTek's expense, and five of us will keep you informed during the draft from poolside. Thank you to those who looked at DraftTek's mocks, used our simulator, our new trade chart, and our big board. The Draft is pure fun and my passion, and someday those posters who take this all too seriously will get it.

Sir i may be mistaken but i thought Atlanta is interested in moving and we might the piece they desire when we pick at 8.

Are they on the radar for Buffalo.

Mr Nix said at the pre draft luncheon that the phones will get answered at Bills Central.

Buddy is the trickster but i think a trade out of 8 is a real possibility for Bills this time around. To gain another pick in the second or better.

Glad you have posted this up for us.

thanks

edit

PS have a great trip and enjoy the experience !

Edited April 19, 2013 by 3rdand12

[Astrobot]

Sir i may be mistaken but i thought Atlanta is interested in moving and we might the piece they desire when we pick at 8.

Are they on the radar for Buffalo.

 

We're hearing Atlanta moving up to Cleveland's pick for Milliner, but if they prefer another corner, we'd be a good spot as any to pick Rhodes or Trufant.

[3rdand12]

Thanks. Should be a fun draft this year for us.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

I was pleased to have been made editor this year at DraftTek, and we've done real well, so I'm being flown out to Vegas for 5 days on DraftTek's expense, and five of us will keep you informed during the draft from poolside.

 

Congratulations Astro!

[Rubes]

We're hearing Atlanta moving up to Cleveland's pick for Milliner, but if they prefer another corner, we'd be a good spot as any to pick Rhodes or Trufant.

 

If the Jets deal Revis (or perhaps even if not), I wonder how likely the Jets would go for a CB at #9. If very likely, then perhaps Atlanta would switch with us to get ahead of the Jets.

[billsfan89]

People have to stop thinking that the Vikings are going to trade both 1st to trade up. The more likely trade down with the Vikings would be 23 this year, 52 this year, their 6th, and a 3rd next year (they have an extra one form the Seahawks next year). That's 15 spots for a 2nd, 6th, and a 3rd next year. Seems much more plausible than 2 firsts.

[Mickey]

It never fails, every year, there is an avalanche of posts on why we should trade down. And it doesn't happen. And it is for the very simple reason that there are always more teams that want to trade down than who want to trade up. Yes, this is a great draft to trade down and it is just as equally a really, really bad draft to trade up in. So where are all the trading partners for the many teams that would love to trade down going to come from? Who is so special that a team will trade up for him and yet, isn't good enough to get drafted with one of the first 7 picks? Go to the websites for these teams that are supposedly so keen on trading up to the vaunted #8 spot and see how may of our fan counterparts are posting long essays on why it such a good thing for their team to trade up.

 

It would be nice if it happened but it is about as predictable as a lightening bolt. The Bills won't know if it is at all a possibility until their pick comes up and I am sure they will be ready should that possibility arise but they can't control that or force that issue.

[Astrobot]

If the Jets deal Revis (or perhaps even if not), I wonder how likely the Jets would go for a CB at #9. If very likely, then perhaps Atlanta would switch with us to get ahead of the Jets.

We think Atlanta moves up higher to get Miliner. Ironically, Cleveland is there again, just like they were for Julio. Atlanta moved from 27 to 6 to get Jones, and this year could move from 30 to 6 to get Milliner. Here are ATL's picks. You can see they could deal their RD1, 2, and 3 to move up, and still have 8 picks. The rich get richer---and Milliner.

 

People have to stop thinking that the Vikings are going to trade both 1st to trade up. The more likely trade down with the Vikings would be 23 this year, 52 this year, their 6th, and a 3rd next year (they have an extra one form the Seahawks next year). That's 15 spots for a 2nd, 6th, and a 3rd next year. Seems much more plausible than 2 firsts.

Simulation of that trade:

1 8 Minnesota Cordarrelle Patterson WRF Tennessee

 

1 23 Buffalo Kevin Minter ILB LSU (from trade)

2 41 Buffalo Tyler Bray QB Tennessee

2 52 Buffalo Robert Woods WRF USC (from trade)

3 71 Buffalo Corey Lemonier OLB34 Auburn

4 105 Buffalo B.W. Webb CB William & Mary

5 143 Buffalo Chris Gragg TE Arkansas

6 177 Buffalo Corey Fuller WRF Virginia Tech

6 189 Buffalo Khaled Holmes OC USC (from trade)

 

If the Jets deal Revis (or perhaps even if not), I wonder how likely the Jets would go for a CB at #9. If very likely, then perhaps Atlanta would switch with us to get ahead of the Jets.

Our Jets Analyst has the Jets taking OLB34 (2 of them) in this draft, one early. If the Jets deal Revis, they would still take OLB34 over CB.

In RD1, they like Ansah-Mingo-Eifert, then Trufant.

[BuffaloRebound]

Think St. Louis is the most likely trade down partner. They are in need of a versatile threat like Austin. Buzz is that a bunch of teams between #9 and their #16 pick are interested in Austin. Bills pick up a 2nd rounder and still get the QB they want at #16 (only risk is Jets at #9 or potentially #13 if they trade Revis). Doubt the QB needy teams at top of the 2nd would move that far to get in front of Bills at #16. St. Louis gets their man in Austin and keeps their other 1st rounder.

[atlbillsfan1975]

Eventually you're gonna be right. What, like 300 different draft simulations now ? You can come back afterwards and say...see I told ya so !! And of course link the one that was right.

 

Hope your site is getting the hits you are working so hard for.

 

You are what you are. A child in the basement making guesses I suspect.

 

I'm patient. I'll watch what the front office does and I'll support it.

 

jb

Astro is a cool guy who enjoys all the fun that the draft brings. Please do not run him off like people on here have done to others.

I know you are relatively new so maybe you do not get it.

Astro has great insight into prospects, i for one have read his draft pick scenarios and then gone and researched some of the players. It is fun, and this is the type of stuff that makes football a year round sport. Tell me another sport where people get so into the draft as the NFL??? It is guys like Astro doing the 'grunt work' that make the draft fun. So when they call some TE name in the fifth round from Boise i actually have heard of him.