QB class worst in decade (article)

[JohnC]

That really is the point with regard to drafting a quarterback early.

 

As I have said many times here over the past few seasons.........The team could have drafted a QB with their first pick every year in the past 13 and be no worse off than they are today.

 

The impact a good QB can have on a franchise dwarfs that of any other position on the field.

 

Therefore, it is always a worthwhile risk if you do not have one in place.

 

I would love to see the Bills get a great pass rushing OLB, or a great OT, or a great WR with that first pick.........but in the long run, it doesn't matter without the quarterback.

 

When I read some of these people talking about how they should pass on a QB this year....cuz next year looks like a better draft for QB's.......I just gotta' shake my head at that nonsense.

 

Is not 53 years of proof enough for people here?

 

Fans deify these potential first round draft picks but the reality is that even when they pan out, they ultimately have little impact on wins and losses if they aren't a QB or there isn't already a stud QB in place.

 

See Stephon Gilmore and Marcel Dareus for the most recent examples.

 

There is a bigger issue with this franchise other than finding a qb. It is that our scouting departiment has for a very long time been mediocre. We had a full decade of the Modrak era that overlapped with the Donahoe/Levy/Brandon and part of the Nix regime. The overall drafts were less than inspiring. A generation of bad drafts has taken its toll on this battered franchise.

 

Nix eventually dispatched Modrak with little resulting upgrade.I have little problem with Nix's first round selections. What is upsetting is considering who he could have taken in the second and third rounds (Kaepernick, Dalton, Wilson and Mallett) and instead took struggling players (Willams, Troup and Graham). The moving up for Graham still has me scratching my head. Have any of Nix's lower round picks turned out to be meaningful selections?

 

Teams that consistently draft well win. The draft is the bloodline for a franchise. This organization is simply below par in this most critical endeavor that is necessary for a successful franchise. The crux of the problem of this struggling franchise is not so much that they are bad in evaluating qb prospects but they are bad in evaluating players in general.

 

There are a number of high quality qb prospects in this draft. They can also be had at a lower draft position from where we first start and can be had in the second and even the third round. The issue is are they competent enough to do it?

Edited April 8, 2013 by JohnC

[thewildrabbit]

There is a bigger issue with this franchise other than finding a qb. It is that our scouting department has for a very long time been mediocre. We had a full decade of the Modrak era that overlapped with the Donahoe/Levy/Brandon and part of the Nix regime. The overall drafts were less than inspiring. A generation of bad drafts has taken its toll on this battered franchise.

 

Nix eventually dispatched Modrak with little resulting upgrade.I have little problem with Nix's first round selections. What is upsetting is considering who he could have taken in the second and third rounds (Kaepernick, Dalton, Wilson and Mallett) and instead took struggling players (Willams, Troup and Graham). The moving up for Graham still has me scratching my head. Have any of Nix's lower round picks turned out to be meaningful selections?

 

Teams that consistently draft well win. The draft is the bloodline for a franchise. This organization is simply below par in this most critical endeavor that is necessary for a successful franchise. The crux of the problem of this struggling franchise is not so much that they are bad in evaluating qb prospects but they are bad in evaluating players in general.

 

There are a number of high quality qb prospects in this draft. They can also be had at a lower draft position from where we first start and can be had in the second and even the third round. The issue is are they competent enough to do it?

Amen brother.

 

Its why I was touting someone like the Seahawks GM John Schneider or the Falcons GM Thomas Dimitrofff (who trained under Belichick) for president of the Buffalo Bills rather then a money guy already on the payroll as vice president of something or other and who is now is the CEO. Which wouldn't be so bad if he weren't also team president of football operations and has no idea whatsoever on how to build a team of quality players. Well, he has an idea, and some semblance of an idea because he was de Facto GM with Dick Jauron. But he is no where near the level of the Ravens Ozzie Newsome (who trained under Belichick) or Dimitroff or Schneider.

 

You simply don't see knowledgeable GM's paying 100 million dollars to one player / pass rusher unless he is a QB. Russ Brandon allowed Jauron to pull the trigger on Aaron Maybin. Allowed Buddy Nix to hire Chan Gailey / George Edwards / Dave Wannstedt and switch from a 4-3 to a 3-4 and now back to a 3-4. Dunno why this owner thinks he is qualified to run the football operations...oh yea, 10 mill per for the Toronto deal.

 

Interesting to note that John Schneider took over as GM of the Seahawks the same year as Buddy Nix took over the Buffalo Bills.

 

 

While there is no super elite QB in this years draft class. I think there will be a few serviceable QB's who will become NFL starters provided they get drafted by the right team, and developed properly. I wouldn't trust Buddy Nix and the Bills scouting dept to find them tho. If anything they will find a nice backup.

 

Here is hoping Doug Marrone / Nathaniel Hackett have the wherewithal to get it right, despite the clowns running the team.

[Saint Doug]

Here is hoping Doug Marrone / Nathaniel Hackett have the wherewithal to get it right, despite the clowns running the team.

 

Truth is, this team would be no worse off it the posters here on TSW were running the Bills draft over the last 3 years. But, the same could be said about 60% of the "professional" GMs in the NFL.

[Garranimal]

 

Serious or facetious?

 

History has clearly shown that the NFL scouts as a whole have an incredibly good success rate at being able to determine which QBs have at least a glimmer of the chance for greatness in the NFL. The chances that a QB gets overlooked......gets selected past the 36th pick in the draft.....and then develops into a great QB are miniscule.

 

Listing off Wilson as a reason to wait to select your QB in the draft is not only premature(he may regress or simply end up having a journeyman career)......but not logical as his case is a very rare occurrence(assuming he actually pans out to become a great QB).

Statistically, not argumentatively, i would say that history has shown that NFL scouts have an incredibly poor success rate with regard to picking QBs......and many other positions as well. Every year, numerous QBs are taken and the majority BY FAR end up being grist for mill. For every Peyton Manning there are 10 (maybe 20?) Ryan Leafs.

[C.Biscuit97]

There is a bigger issue with this franchise other than finding a qb. It is that our scouting departiment has for a very long time been mediocre. We had a full decade of the Modrak era that overlapped with the Donahoe/Levy/Brandon and part of the Nix regime. The overall drafts were less than inspiring. A generation of bad drafts has taken its toll on this battered franchise.

 

Nix eventually dispatched Modrak with little resulting upgrade.I have little problem with Nix's first round selections. What is upsetting is considering who he could have taken in the second and third rounds (Kaepernick, Dalton, Wilson and Mallett) and instead took struggling players (Willams, Troup and Graham). The moving up for Graham still has me scratching my head. Have any of Nix's lower round picks turned out to be meaningful selections?

 

Teams that consistently draft well win. The draft is the bloodline for a franchise. This organization is simply below par in this most critical endeavor that is necessary for a successful franchise. The crux of the problem of this struggling franchise is not so much that they are bad in evaluating qb prospects but they are bad in evaluating players in general.

 

There are a number of high quality qb prospects in this draft. They can also be had at a lower draft position from where we first start and can be had in the second and even the third round. The issue is are they competent enough to do it?

 

I hate to simplify things but sometimes they are. The Bills went 6-10 with Ryan Fitzpatrick. They went 7-9 with JP Losman and Trent Edwards. The Colts go 2-14 without Peyton Manning. They got 10-6 (very lucky 10-6 but still 10-6) with Andrew Luck the next year. For as bad as the Bills have drafted, switch Manning and our QBs, we are at least a playoff team if not better. Franchise Qbs matter that much.

 

However, your main point is correct. The biggest problem is lack of effort in getting a QB. The Packers for years drafted a ton of QBs. The Bills avoid Qbs in the draft like a plague. Articles about how bad of a QB class this is are jokes. There is talent at QB in this draft but the worst thing this franchise can do is listen to "experts" and wait for next year. Because guess what? Aaron Murray will get picked apart. What if Johnny Football regresses or people put out that he is the same system that made Case Keenum the #1 passer in college football? Or Tahj Boyd will get compared to an unsuccessful black QB.

 

Pick a QB every year until you get one. And if you get mroe that one, teams pay a ton for an average starting QB (see Alex Smith).

 

Amen brother.

 

Its why I was touting someone like the Seahawks GM John Schneider or the Falcons GM Thomas Dimitrofff (who trained under Belichick) for president of the Buffalo Bills rather then a money guy already on the payroll as vice president of something or other and who is now is the CEO. Which wouldn't be so bad if he weren't also team president of football operations and has no idea whatsoever on how to build a team of quality players. Well, he has an idea, and some semblance of an idea because he was de Facto GM with Dick Jauron. But he is no where near the level of the Ravens Ozzie Newsome (who trained under Belichick) or Dimitroff or Schneider.

 

You simply don't see knowledgeable GM's paying 100 million dollars to one player / pass rusher unless he is a QB. Russ Brandon allowed Jauron to pull the trigger on Aaron Maybin. Allowed Buddy Nix to hire Chan Gailey / George Edwards / Dave Wannstedt and switch from a 4-3 to a 3-4 and now back to a 3-4. Dunno why this owner thinks he is qualified to run the football operations...oh yea, 10 mill per for the Toronto deal.

 

Interesting to note that John Schneider took over as GM of the Seahawks the same year as Buddy Nix took over the Buffalo Bills.

 

 

While there is no super elite QB in this years draft class. I think there will be a few serviceable QB's who will become NFL starters provided they get drafted by the right team, and developed properly. I wouldn't trust Buddy Nix and the Bills scouting dept to find them tho. If anything they will find a nice backup.

 

Here is hoping Doug Marrone / Nathaniel Hackett have the wherewithal to get it right, despite the clowns running the team.

 

1) The Ravens tagged Suggs and then made him the highest paid LB in history. The Packers are about to pay Clay Matthews a ton (probbly more than Mario). The Texans will have to pay Watt top money. Pass rushers get paid. Silly point to criticize the Bills over, especially when everyone was in love with the move at the time. But hindsight is always 20-20.

 

2) The Seahawks have paid good FA money to Tavaris Jackson; paid really good money to Matt Flynn; traded a 3rd and switched 2nds for Charlie freakin' Whitehurst; and basically lucked out with a 3rd rounder in Wilson. If Nix lucks out with a QB in this draft, guess what? All of his moves look much better.

 

3) I do agree that it is terrible the lack of effort put into finding a QB. Even if they thought Fitz was the answer, draft a young guy to learn under him. You should never ever settle looking for a QB.

 

Statistically, not argumentatively, i would say that history has shown that NFL scouts have an incredibly poor success rate with regard to picking QBs......and many other positions as well. Every year, numerous QBs are taken and the majority BY FAR end up being grist for mill. For every Peyton Manning there are 10 (maybe 20?) Ryan Leafs.

 

For some reason, people don't grasp that. Sorry if I don't believe guys like Mel Kiper and take what they say as gospel. I'd love to see where Tom Brady, Kurt Warner, Tony Romo, etc ranked on their draft boards.

[OldTimer1960]

Statistically, not argumentatively, i would say that history has shown that NFL scouts have an incredibly poor success rate with regard to picking QBs......and many other positions as well. Every year, numerous QBs are taken and the majority BY FAR end up being grist for mill. For every Peyton Manning there are 10 (maybe 20?) Ryan Leafs.

 

I am with you, but I think this poor success rate has more to do with the lack of really good NFL-calibre QBs and team's desperation to find them. I am more in the camp of spending the 8th pick on a player at another position besides QB that is expected to have a higher probability of success than the available QBs, BUT it might be that you really do have accept the low success rate and keep trying until you find one. It might be analogous to a "7 point shot" in basketball - one way way beyond the 3 point line - low percentage of making it, but if you do you score big.

[C.Biscuit97]

I am with you, but I think this poor success rate has more to do with the lack of really good NFL-calibre QBs and team's desperation to find them. I am more in the camp of spending the 8th pick on a player at another position besides QB that is expected to have a higher probability of success than the available QBs, BUT it might be that you really do have accept the low success rate and keep trying until you find one. It might be analogous to a "7 point shot" in basketball - one way way beyond the 3 point line - low percentage of making it, but if you do you score big.

 

 

Well, it's pretty much you miss 100% of the shots you don't take. The Bills never take shots a QB in the draft, thus they never find a franchise guy.

[JohnC]

I hate to simplify things but sometimes they are. The Bills went 6-10 with Ryan Fitzpatrick. They went 7-9 with JP Losman and Trent Edwards. The Colts go 2-14 without Peyton Manning. They got 10-6 (very lucky 10-6 but still 10-6) with Andrew Luck the next year. For as bad as the Bills have drafted, switch Manning and our QBs, we are at least a playoff team if not better. Franchise Qbs matter that much.

 

However, your main point is correct. The biggest problem is lack of effort in getting a QB. The Packers for years drafted a ton of QBs. The Bills avoid Qbs in the draft like a plague. Articles about how bad of a QB class this is are jokes. There is talent at QB in this draft but the worst thing this franchise can do is listen to "experts" and wait for next year. Because guess what? Aaron Murray will get picked apart. What if Johnny Football regresses or people put out that he is the same system that made Case Keenum the #1 passer in college football? Or Tahj Boyd will get compared to an unsuccessful black QB.

 

Pick a QB every year until you get one. And if you get mroe that one, teams pay a ton for an average starting QB (see Alex Smith).

 

The top tier GMs in the game are smart enough to realize that if you want to compete for the ultimate prize, the SB, you need a top shelf qb. The qbs on the roster during Nix's stint are Fitz, Jackson, Edwards, Thigpin and Levi Brown. He has passed on talented qb prospects for players who are less than mediocre. The moving up to secure TJ. Graham was simply odd. If he and his scouts think that Graham was a hot commodity then they need to go back to scouting class 101.

 

Buddy Nix is a decent fellow who is overmatched by the complexity of his job. He is now belatedly in a frenzied search for a qb in this draft, or at least we are led to believe so. My question is: Where the hell has he been? He acts as if something that has been going on for almost twenty years (passing emphasis) is a new revelation to him.

 

Teams don't only compete, so do organizations. Buddy Nix is competing with sophisticated and talented GMs such as Thompson from Green Bay, Colbert from Pittsburgh, Ozzie Newsome from Baltimore, Bilechick from New England and Jerry Reese from the Giants. How do you think he stacks up with any of these suprerlative GMs who not only know how to find their franchise qb but have an immensely better understanding in how to build a roster?

 

I go back to my original point that the Bills main problem is not really about evaluating qbs so much as it is about evaluating prospects in general. There is enough body of work over the past three years to recognize the mediocrity that pervades this organization.

Edited April 8, 2013 by JohnC

[GG]

I think that a perspective check is in order.

 

The reason this thread was started was because it's becoming clear in the eyes of most experts that there isn't a QB who's worthy of a Round 1 pick. This doesn't happen often, as there's usually a team willing to gamble on a guy in round one. Usually at this time, there's a wide range of opinions on the QB prospects, and teams miss when they overestimate a QB's abilities. But when you look at history, the experts are often right in retrospect when they dismiss a prospect's abilities (because these QBs get picked after round 1). The 2013 draft is different than others because the consensus opinion is that the class sucks. This doesn't happen very often, and it's not just teams throwing out fake smoke signals. Even the guys who talked up Blaine Gabberts and Jimmy Clausens are mellow on this draft class.

 

So, in this draft, Bills probably shouldn't draft a QB on Thursday. But they should definitely bring one home before Saturday.

[OldTimer1960]

I hate to simplify things but sometimes they are. The Bills went 6-10 with Ryan Fitzpatrick. They went 7-9 with JP Losman and Trent Edwards. The Colts go 2-14 without Peyton Manning. They got 10-6 (very lucky 10-6 but still 10-6) with Andrew Luck the next year. For as bad as the Bills have drafted, switch Manning and our QBs, we are at least a playoff team if not better. Franchise Qbs matter that much.

 

However, your main point is correct. The biggest problem is lack of effort in getting a QB. The Packers for years drafted a ton of QBs. The Bills avoid Qbs in the draft like a plague. Articles about how bad of a QB class this is are jokes. There is talent at QB in this draft but the worst thing this franchise can do is listen to "experts" and wait for next year. Because guess what? Aaron Murray will get picked apart. What if Johnny Football regresses or people put out that he is the same system that made Case Keenum the #1 passer in college football? Or Tahj Boyd will get compared to an unsuccessful black QB.

 

Pick a QB every year until you get one. And if you get mroe that one, teams pay a ton for an average starting QB (see Alex Smith).

 

 

 

1) The Ravens tagged Suggs and then made him the highest paid LB in history. The Packers are about to pay Clay Matthews a ton (probbly more than Mario). The Texans will have to pay Watt top money. Pass rushers get paid. Silly point to criticize the Bills over, especially when everyone was in love with the move at the time. But hindsight is always 20-20.

 

2) The Seahawks have paid good FA money to Tavaris Jackson; paid really good money to Matt Flynn; traded a 3rd and switched 2nds for Charlie freakin' Whitehurst; and basically lucked out with a 3rd rounder in Wilson. If Nix lucks out with a QB in this draft, guess what? All of his moves look much better.

 

3) I do agree that it is terrible the lack of effort put into finding a QB. Even if they thought Fitz was the answer, draft a young guy to learn under him. You should never ever settle looking for a QB.

 

 

 

For some reason, people don't grasp that. Sorry if I don't believe guys like Mel Kiper and take what they say as gospel. I'd love to see where Tom Brady, Kurt Warner, Tony Romo, etc ranked on their draft boards.

 

I think this is most true for QBs because teams reach for them due to their desperate need for them. However, I think the success rate for other positions is probably lower than many people really believe. For example, from 1992-2011 30% of #1 overall picks (very first pick in the draft) were starters in the league for < 3 years. Over that same period only 57% of top-10 picks started for 5 or more years in the league - a lot lower than most probably would have thought.

 

The link below is to draftmetrics.com and shows data for draft picks from 1992-2011 - fun thing to look at and pretty eye-opening.

 

http://www.draftmetrics.com/files/draftposition19922011.pdf

Edited April 8, 2013 by OldTimer1960

[Garranimal]

I am with you, but I think this poor success rate has more to do with the lack of really good NFL-calibre QBs and team's desperation to find them. I am more in the camp of spending the 8th pick on a player at another position besides QB that is expected to have a higher probability of success than the available QBs, BUT it might be that you really do have accept the low success rate and keep trying until you find one. It might be analogous to a "7 point shot" in basketball - one way way beyond the 3 point line - low percentage of making it, but if you do you score big.

I have to say that I am of the belief that the reason that many of these young, very talented players never reach their potential is the "hot pockets" mentality. Teams change coaches more rapidly than ever and coaches change QBs at an equally unproductive rate. Many guys never get a chance to succeed or are so busy looking over their shoulders, they never truly relax enough to just play football.

 

Look, i have to wonder what effect overexposure has had on the state of the NFL and the draft. The Kipers, McShays and Mayocks have all managed to make and break players before they even got a chance to just be football players. Then throw in all of the idiot ex-athletes who have opinions on every position, whether they know a thing about that position or not and you have preconceptions everywhere. Guys are busts before they even play a real down....forget about giving them a few years for their bodies to mature. I remember when Dwight Freeney was considered overrated and overdrafted.....lean and skinny as he was.

 

To a certain degree, it is why college has become more appealing to me now when i couldn't stand to watch a game when i was a kid. But college is getting ruined as well by all of the media noise.

[thewildrabbit]

I hate to simplify things but sometimes they are. The Bills went 6-10 with Ryan Fitzpatrick. They went 7-9 with JP Losman and Trent Edwards. The Colts go 2-14 without Peyton Manning. They got 10-6 (very lucky 10-6 but still 10-6) with Andrew Luck the next year. For as bad as the Bills have drafted, switch Manning and our QBs, we are at least a playoff team if not better. Franchise Qbs matter that much.

 

However, your main point is correct. The biggest problem is lack of effort in getting a QB. The Packers for years drafted a ton of QBs. The Bills avoid Qbs in the draft like a plague. Articles about how bad of a QB class this is are jokes. There is talent at QB in this draft but the worst thing this franchise can do is listen to "experts" and wait for next year. Because guess what? Aaron Murray will get picked apart. What if Johnny Football regresses or people put out that he is the same system that made Case Keenum the #1 passer in college football? Or Tahj Boyd will get compared to an unsuccessful black QB.

 

Pick a QB every year until you get one. And if you get mroe that one, teams pay a ton for an average starting QB (see Alex Smith).

 

 

 

1) The Ravens tagged Suggs and then made him the highest paid LB in history. The Packers are about to pay Clay Matthews a ton (probbly more than Mario). The Texans will have to pay Watt top money. Pass rushers get paid. Silly point to criticize the Bills over, especially when everyone was in love with the move at the time. But hindsight is always 20-20.

 

2) The Seahawks have paid good FA money to Tavaris Jackson; paid really good money to Matt Flynn; traded a 3rd and switched 2nds for Charlie freakin' Whitehurst; and basically lucked out with a 3rd rounder in Wilson. If Nix lucks out with a QB in this draft, guess what? All of his moves look much better.

 

3) I do agree that it is terrible the lack of effort put into finding a QB. Even if they thought Fitz was the answer, draft a young guy to learn under him. You should never ever settle looking for a QB.

 

For some reason, people don't grasp that. Sorry if I don't believe guys like Mel Kiper and take what they say as gospel. I'd love to see where Tom Brady, Kurt Warner, Tony Romo, etc ranked on their draft boards.

1) I do recall the Ravens at first listing Suggs as an OLBer rather then a DE so they don't have to pay him DE money, thus saving about 800k. Pretty shrewd on their part, just sayin. Buffalo, a small market team paying 100 on a FA player other then a QB kind of restricts what they can pay other free agents. Especially this years FA period when there was at least a dozen decent pass rushers on the market.

 

Notice how Peyton Manning was available last off season and yet the Bills showed no interest afaik. Would the Bills even be able to afford a both a Peyton Manning and Super Mario? It might be hindsight, but it just shows the constant dysfunction of this org in obtaining proper players.

 

2) Seattle went thru many progressions looking for a QB and didn't stop until they found their guy. Unlike the Buffalo Bills GM who thought a career backup QB was good enough until he was forced to fire his choice for HC.

 

I highly doubt any choice Nix makes at QB this year or next will make his all his moves look much better. The man is on record to be on of the worst ever Bills GM's. Now I even question his supposed scouting acumen to find decent players at any position. (read JohnC post) The only players that appear average or above average that he drafted are first round picks. Besides Spiller, even then I think Spiller was all Gaileys "water-bug" idea.

 

I think the dysfunction cycle continues with Nix still the GM, a money man in charge of football operations.

[JohnC]

 

I highly doubt any choice Nix makes at QB this year or next will make his all his moves look much better. The man is on record to be on of the worst ever Bills GM's. Now I even question his supposed scouting acumen to find decent players at any position. (read JohnC post) The only players that appear average or above average that he drafted are first round picks. Besides Spiller, even then I think Spiller was all Gaileys "water-bug" idea.

 

I think the dysfunction cycle continues with Nix still the GM, a money man in charge of football operations.

 

The Nix regime has been a disaster from a variety of standpoints. A lot of attention is given to the qb issue but that is only a small segment of his failings. Nix's record in giving out smart contracts relative to talent is very poor. Kelsay's contract far outstripped his contribution on the field. Having Fitz as a stop gap qb was a reasonable move. What turned it into an egregiously bad move is giving him a contract that was beyond his abilities. He didn't have to give him that rich contract. What other GM in the league would have brought him in for a similar contract? No one else would have been so foolish to pay this so called gunslinger who shot mostly blanks. The Titans signing him as a backup and paying him accordingly is what smart GMs do, far from what Nix did.

 

As WEO has pointed out in a number of postings the GM has many responsibilites with finding a HC and a franchise qb being at the top of the list. He has failed on both counts. Nix is a meat and potatoes type person who seems to be incapable of thinking in strategic terms. He bragged how he ran up to the podium in the Spiller draft without using up the remaining time to accept calls from GMs who were willing to make generous offers to move up into our draft spot. Not even considering trade offers for a team that has multiple needs is foolish. What is even more goofy is bragging about it.

 

You know things are bad when the majority of the thinking fanbase are hoping that the current GM has less influence in decision making than more. That certainly isn't an endorsement of his three year work product.

[OldTimer1960]

Well, it's pretty much you miss 100% of the shots you don't take. The Bills never take shots a QB in the draft, thus they never find a franchise guy.

 

True to an extent, but it isn't quite true that they aren't taking any shots. They have chosen instead to take their shots on other positions that they perceived had better options. Now, people can point out that they could have had Kaepernick, Dalton or Wilson, but there isn't any other QB that the "smart" money was on that was available to the Bills over the past 3 drafts that I'd have traded Spiller, Dareus or Gilmore for. Non-QBs yes, but none of the other 1st round QBs.

 

I am in alignment with taking shots at QBs regularly in mid to late rounds until they find one. I wish that there was a really good one to nab in round 1 this year. I could even be on board with Manuel, Nassib or Wilson as early as the 8th pick IF they are really sure of their research.

[JohnC]

True to an extent, but it isn't quite true that they aren't taking any shots. They have chosen instead to take their shots on other positions that they perceived had better options. Now, people can point out that they could have had Kaepernick, Dalton or Wilson, but there isn't any other QB that the "smart" money was on that was available to the Bills over the past 3 drafts that I'd have traded Spiller, Dareus or Gilmore for. Non-QBs yes, but none of the other 1st round QBs.

 

I am in alignment with taking shots at QBs regularly in mid to late rounds until they find one. I wish that there was a really good one to nab in round 1 this year. I could even be on board with Manuel, Nassib or Wilson as early as the 8th pick IF they are really sure of their research.

 

There is a two sided coin to not drafting qbs that makes this issue infuriating. The people that Nix drafted instead of taking a risk on a qb prospect have (up to now) proven to be duds. The draft year Kaepernick and Dalton were available Nix drafted Aaron Williams. The year Nix drafted Sheppard, a MLB with no instincts, they could have taken a chance on Mallett. Last year Nix moved up to take the track receiver, T.J. Graham, instead of taking a chance on Russell Wilson.

 

The cumulative misses on draft picks is crushing this exhausted franchise. It's like walking up a down escalator when the escalator is moving at a faster rate than you are. If Nix didn't draft a qb (which he hasn't except for Levi Brown) but was regularly hitting on his drafts picks at least the team would be in a stronger position to move up the ranks when they eventually did acquire a legitimate franchise qb.

 

The Bills are entering this draft with major holes on both sides of the ball. It is going to .take another few years to get this roster to the point beyond being a shallow roster. The reality is that the Bills are in another one of their continuous cycles of rebuilding. It is very tiresome.

[GG]

True to an extent, but it isn't quite true that they aren't taking any shots. They have chosen instead to take their shots on other positions that they perceived had better options. Now, people can point out that they could have had Kaepernick, Dalton or Wilson, but there isn't any other QB that the "smart" money was on that was available to the Bills over the past 3 drafts that I'd have traded Spiller, Dareus or Gilmore for. Non-QBs yes, but none of the other 1st round QBs.

 

I am in alignment with taking shots at QBs regularly in mid to late rounds until they find one. I wish that there was a really good one to nab in round 1 this year. I could even be on board with Manuel, Nassib or Wilson as early as the 8th pick IF they are really sure of their research.

 

But that's the rub. Ask any real GM which position a franchise should focus on first and foremost, and 99.9% of the time, the answer is QB. The failure of Nix to virtually ignore the position in the draft speaks volumes about his qualifications for he job. And while I don't think they should target a QB at #8 this year because this is a particularly weak QB year, the odds also argue against taking a QB after round 3. Mid to late round QBs are a lot more Levi Browns and not Tom Bradys. A QB has to be picked before Friday is out.

[Dibs]

But that's the rub. Ask any real GM which position a franchise should focus on first and foremost, and 99.9% of the time, the answer is QB. The failure of Nix to virtually ignore the position in the draft speaks volumes about his qualifications for he job. And while I don't think they should target a QB at #8 this year because this is a particularly weak QB year, the odds also argue against taking a QB after round 3. Mid to late round QBs are a lot more Levi Browns and not Tom Bradys. A QB has to be picked before Friday is out.

 

If you have a closer look, you will find historically that that statement is true(red) from pick #37 onwards.

[RuntheDamnBall]

If you have a closer look, you will find historically that that statement is true(red) from pick #37 onwards.

This is true. Yet some teams strike gold. I'd love to see some good research into how that happens. Is it fit with a system? Is it that that player gets a few years to learn under a successful operation? Is it that the rest of the team is so good that he can't help but succeed? These things might describe a guy like Bulger, but they don't describe how a guy like Brady comes in and simply TAKES OVER the league for a team that was sort of a fringey playoff team for awhile. Maybe he is just an outlier, a guy everybody thinks they should have seen but whose combo of work ethic and untapped potential is uncommon.

[QCity]

I'm starting to think even Nassib will be around in the third. Would love to go LB LB then still get a decent QB prospect in the third.

 

I'm starting to think Nassib will be gone 8th.

[ganesh]

 

Interesting to note that John Schneider took over as GM of the Seahawks the same year as Buddy Nix took over the Buffalo Bills.

 

 

While there is no super elite QB in this years draft class. I think there will be a few serviceable QB's who will become NFL starters provided they get drafted by the right team, and developed properly. I wouldn't trust Buddy Nix and the Bills scouting dept to find them tho. If anything they will find a nice backup.

 

Here is hoping Doug Marrone / Nathaniel Hackett have the wherewithal to get it right, despite the clowns running the team.

 

During the same period, the seahawks tried Whitehurst, Jackson, Flynn at the QB position and finally caught the genie in the bottle in Wilson. Let us not forget all the failures of that regime.

 

There is a two sided coin to not drafting qbs that makes this issue infuriating. The people that Nix drafted instead of taking a risk on a qb prospect have (up to now) proven to be duds. The draft year Kaepernick and Dalton were available Nix drafted Aaron Williams. The year Nix drafted Sheppard, a MLB with no instincts, they could have taken a chance on Mallett. Last year Nix moved up to take the track receiver, T.J. Graham, instead of taking a chance on Russell Wilson.

 

The cumulative misses on draft picks is crushing this exhausted franchise. It's like walking up a down escalator when the escalator is moving at a faster rate than you are. If Nix didn't draft a qb (which he hasn't except for Levi Brown) but was regularly hitting on his drafts picks at least the team would be in a stronger position to move up the ranks when they eventually did acquire a legitimate franchise qb.

 

The Bills are entering this draft with major holes on both sides of the ball. It is going to .take another few years to get this roster to the point beyond being a shallow roster. The reality is that the Bills are in another one of their continuous cycles of rebuilding. It is very tiresome.

 

If our defense does tighten up, then may be the Bills do not go into rebuilding mode.