BADOLBILZ Posted April 2, 2013 Posted April 2, 2013 (edited) Let's look at the "currently successful teams" and then all teams: Washington: won the NFC East with a rookie whom almost unanimously was rated very high. GB: awesome with a QB drafted 20+ spots after Alex Smith. No one can tell me that none of the teams between 1 and GB didn't need a QB, but clearly GB's pick was substantial ATL: won NFC NFC South with highly drafted QB Matt Ryan (who many said was a "reach") SF: won NFC West with 2nd round QB NE: still riding the Tom Brady "lucky pick" in the 6th round. Baltimore: Flacco was good, but not great in Super Bowl season. He was a #1 pick. Houston: won AFC South with 3rd round pick (traded for) Matt Schaub. Questionable whether they won because of or in spite of Schaub. Denver: won AFC West with Peyton Manning, but spent #1 pick on Tim Tebow 2 years ago and 2nd on Brock Osweiller last year. Now for the "other teams" Giants: 9-7 with Eli Manning - an "elite" QB drafted #1 overall. Dallas: one game worse (8-8) with undrafted Tony Romo Philly: 4-12 with #1 draft pick Michael Vick Minnesota: 10-6 with the best rushing attack in the last decade and Christian Ponder who was drafted early round 1 (but didn't produce much) Chicago: 10-6 with Jay Cutler (#1 pick acquired via trade) Det: 4-12 with #1 pick Matt Stafford Carolina: 7-9 with #1 overall pick Cam Newton NO: 7-9 with Superstar Drew Brees TB: 7-9 with #1 pick Josh Freeman Seattle: 11-5 with 3rd round pick Russell Wilson (while high priced FA Matt Flynn sat and trade acquisition Charlie Whitehurst was gone) Stl: 7-8-1 with #1 pick Sam Bradford Arizona: 5-11 with Kolb/Skelton running for their lives Miami: 7-9 with #1 pick Ryan Tannehill Jets: 6-10 with #1 pick Mark Sanchez Buffalo: 6-10 with undrafted FA Ryan Fitzpatrick Cinci: 10-6 with #2 pick Andy Dalton Pitt: 8-8 with #1 pick Ben Roethlisberger Cleveland: 5-11 with #1 Brandon Weedon and #3 Colt McCoy Indy: 11-5 with #1 overall Andrew Luck Tenn: 6-10 with #1 pick Jake Locker Jax: 2-14 with #1 pick Blaine Gabbert SD: 7-9 with #1 pick Philip Rivers Oak: 4-12 with #1 pick Carson Palmer KC: 2-14 with very late pick Matt Cassell Conclusions (mine): 1. MOST good QBs are drafted in round 1. 2. A round 1 QB is not sufficient to be a good team 2a. 22 of 32 teams had a former #1 QB starting, yet many of those teams were not very good. It is not sufficient to wish/hope/pray that a highly drafted QB will turn around a struggling franchise. Even some very very promising young QBs (Cam Newton for example) are not "winning" without decent support from their teammates. It is at least debatable whether any of the QBs in this draft will ever be good enough at the NFL level to elevate an otherwise weak team to the playoffs. OK, now list me all the successful teams built around one particular player other than a QB. Yeah......because they don't really exist. So, when you are wishing.....hoping......and praying......for Stephon Gilmore or Aaron Maybin to turn your franchise around instead of a quarterback.......good f*cking luck with that! The simple fact remains.....if the Bills had just stayed put and taken the next QB to be drafted after their ACTUAL first round pick in the last 13 years they would have a Drew Brees, an Aaron Rodgers, or a Joe Flacco. But of course, none of them were can't miss prospects......so the Bills just had to PASS. Those 3 QB's have hoisted 3 of the last 5 Lombardi trophies. The Bills could have taken them in their respective drafts if they didn't use the approach you are advocating of never going all in. The Bills idea of being all in is getting their speed receiver who will be out of the league in 7 years and then trading back into round 1 to take the 4th best QB on the board. Fortune has rightly turned it's back on this team because it has no balls on draft day. It's really easy to take the top running back or cornerback on your board. They are really easy evaluations. And you can hit on ALL of those picks and still miss the playoffs every year. That's just the simple truth in the NFL......and the Bills are one of the few organizations that doesn't understand this. So by all means......let's get Alec Ogletree or Dee Milliner or whomever because after abstaining from taking a QB with their first pick in any draft for the past 53 years it would be unacceptable to swing and miss on a quarterback now. I mean, how are the Bills ever going to prove everybody wrong if they give in to the facts? Edited April 2, 2013 by BADOLBEELZ
Uncle Joe Posted April 2, 2013 Posted April 2, 2013 I see Patterson as the pick if he is there at #8 then a QB in the 2nd. As of today so does WalterFootball.com mock draft (taking Patterson at 8).
GG Posted April 2, 2013 Posted April 2, 2013 Sure, with the exception that Fitz never sustained an injury that basically finished his season week 6 in 2011, right? London Fletcher Baker may disagree with that.
thewildrabbit Posted April 2, 2013 Posted April 2, 2013 On one hand, Philly saw something in the kid to draft him in the 2nd round, and so did Arizona to trade for him, (2nd round pick and starting CB). OTOH, If he was really worth a damn he would have stayed the starter in both those cities. He couldn't beat out Mike Vick or even John Skelton for the starting Job. Is Kolb a better QB then Fitz, who had the ability to get the ball out so quickly to the open receiver? I look at this move to simply bring in competition to the QB position for this year as I don't think anyone had total faith in Tavaris Jackson considering Gailey wouldn't even give him a start. To the people who say, Oh, in Arizona he had no running game, only one WR, no O line and no TE need to remember he had all those players around him and Philly and they still traded him away rather then keep him. I also think that both Kolb / TJ will light up all the flaws in that supposed good O line that Buddy Nix thinks is fine. It will be interesting to see if anything has changed for the better on the Bills this season.
ganesh Posted April 2, 2013 Posted April 2, 2013 (edited) I think he can do the job, I know I am in the minority but I have seen guys turn it around with better lines and coaching esp if they had a running game. But yeah we are going to take a QB at some point, I think this points more to Nassib with a move back into the first. Now I read Geno has another meeting with Bills this week but unless we move up to #2 he isn't going to be there. Good possibility...If Arizona gets Carson Palmer, Arians will be investing his top 5 pick on a cornerstone OT to protect Palmer's blind side. Oakland got Matt Flynn for draft picks. May be they can trade down a few spots and get Geno Smith before the Bills. (If the OTs are as good as advertised, may be some of the teams may chose to go up and get them). Jax is the true competition...They are likely to pick up Geno Smith, what with a new owner wanting to start fresh. Edited April 2, 2013 by ganesh
OldTimer1960 Posted April 2, 2013 Posted April 2, 2013 OK, now list me all the successful teams built around one particular player other than a QB. Yeah......because they don't really exist. So, when you are wishing.....hoping......and praying......for Stephon Gilmore or Aaron Maybin to turn your franchise around instead of a quarterback.......good f*cking luck with that! The simple fact remains.....if the Bills had just stayed put and taken the next QB to be drafted after their ACTUAL first round pick in the last 13 years they would have a Drew Brees, an Aaron Rodgers, or a Joe Flacco. But of course, none of them were can't miss prospects......so the Bills just had to PASS. Those 3 QB's have hoisted 3 of the last 5 Lombardi trophies. The Bills could have taken them in their respective drafts if they didn't use the approach you are advocating of never going all in. The Bills idea of being all in is getting their speed receiver who will be out of the league in 7 years and then trading back into round 1 to take the 4th best QB on the board. Fortune has rightly turned it's back on this team because it has no balls on draft day. It's really easy to take the top running back or cornerback on your board. They are really easy evaluations. And you can hit on ALL of those picks and still miss the playoffs every year. That's just the simple truth in the NFL......and the Bills are one of the few organizations that doesn't understand this. So by all means......let's get Alec Ogletree or Dee Milliner or whomever because after abstaining from taking a QB with their first pick in any draft for the past 53 years it would be unacceptable to swing and miss on a quarterback now. I mean, how are the Bills ever going to prove everybody wrong if they give in to the facts? Relax man, nobody is attacking you. I was simply saying that just picking a QB in round 1 is not sufficient to become a good team. There are bad teams with good QBs and as you point out, there are very few good teams that don't have good QBs. You have to pick a good QB and my only disagreement with your post is that I think you need to look critically at the QB prospects rather than "just taking a shot" on one every year until you get it right. I could even buy into that philosophy, but with later picks. First round picks are very valuable. An argument can be made that you should stretch the value argument to slant towards the QB position, but that doesn't mean that you should take a QB early if you don't think they have a good chance of becoming a good starter. By all means, if the Bills think there is a QB that is likely to be a good or better starter in the NFL, I think they should take that guy at 8.
biggerdaddynj Posted April 2, 2013 Posted April 2, 2013 (edited) There were limited options especially with this current class of QBs. Kolb will not end up costing us much and we didn't have to surrender any picks which was key! Kolb ain't gonna do much (probably a notch above Fitz and with Marrone a bit more of a boost) but what he will do is to enable us to draft value and hold the fort until we find the QB of the future. I would personally not be offended if we wait until next year to draft a QB and stock up on a top LB, WR and TE with our first three picks. That's what having Kolb can allow us to do (if Fitz stayed and tried the new off. we might have been OK too but Kolb being a new "flavor" gives them some slack they might not have had with Fitz). Edited April 2, 2013 by biggerdaddynj
dpberr Posted April 2, 2013 Posted April 2, 2013 I don't think Kolb is as bad a player as the media or "experts" portray him. That situtaion in Arizona from the almost imaginary offensive line to the mediocre coaching to the mediocre running backs was not one where a quarterback was going to flourish. Big deal you had Larry Fitzgerald. He can't block pass rushers or catch balls out of the backfield.
BuffaloFan68 Posted April 2, 2013 Posted April 2, 2013 I've been saying for weeks now that I just don't think T-Jack will be on our roster come opening day. Even A. Corp has more potential
CodeMonkey Posted April 2, 2013 Posted April 2, 2013 I don't think Kolb is as bad a player as the media or "experts" portray him. Actually, he probably is. If it was one team he didn't perform with you can make that excuse. But he is past that. But I think that signing him was a good move, assuming the contract is for backup QB pay plus incentives. The Bills needed someone at least viable going into camp besides TJax. And who knows, maybe lightning will strike and Kolb will do something in Buffalo.
Kellyto83TD Posted April 2, 2013 Author Posted April 2, 2013 See here is the thing, if all 32 teams had elite QB's only 16 of them make the playoffs. The thing is you need a great QB just to have a chance. Now I grant you Wilson, Kaepernick, Brady and even Dalton are exceptions being non first round picks, but still you have to really address that position at some point with a high pick talent
BillyBaroo Posted April 2, 2013 Posted April 2, 2013 If Andy Reid saw something in the guy at some point then I guess I can live with it.. Let's just hope that we don't hire some QB "Expert" to mess with this guy. I really feel like Fitz was worse with the help.
BuffBill Posted April 2, 2013 Posted April 2, 2013 So those of us that like the move can discuss without the many bitching and whining about it posting their crap. The guy was behind the worst OL in football the last two years and had no running game, something Buffalo actually DOES have both of. We add another WR and a TE (plus Chandler coming back) the guy can get the job done. I am sick of the Fitz comparrisons, they just aren't the same guy. This guy was highly sought after 2 years ago for a reason, Fitz... no one come knocking down his door, ever. The guy has a good enough arm, is mobile enough and has played in a very complex offense (Philly). Now are we still drafting a QB? Sure, but I really think this changes things. I think this move was made (Again just opinion) because Whaley and Nix both didn't think that much of the QB class and IF we took one, he would need a year on the bench to develop. I see Patterson as the pick if he is there at #8 then a QB in the 2nd. I am not in love with the move, and shooting party streamers in the air. It was however, considering what is available, not a bad move. Is he better then Fitz, probably, yea I would say so for sure. Is he better then Jax-does it get cold in Alaska? I thought Kolb looked pretty good against us until he got clocked and tore his chest apart. His numbers are at least as good as Fitz's were, and Fitz was one of the least sacked QBs, where the AZ QBs were the most sacked behind a grossly terrible O-Line. Is he the future, probably not, but not sure any rookies in this class are ready to start right away, but will take awhile to become a franchise QB. I would have rather had Flynn, but considering they didn't have to trade away any picks or players for Kolb, it is one of the few moves that Nix has made that even make a little bit of sense. This team still isn't real close to competing, even if we brought Tom Brady in, so it is an improvement no doubt, but still not making hotel reservations for the Playoffs anywhere.
BADOLBILZ Posted April 2, 2013 Posted April 2, 2013 Relax man, nobody is attacking you. I was simply saying that just picking a QB in round 1 is not sufficient to become a good team. There are bad teams with good QBs and as you point out, there are very few good teams that don't have good QBs. You have to pick a good QB and my only disagreement with your post is that I think you need to look critically at the QB prospects rather than "just taking a shot" on one every year until you get it right. I could even buy into that philosophy, but with later picks. First round picks are very valuable. An argument can be made that you should stretch the value argument to slant towards the QB position, but that doesn't mean that you should take a QB early if you don't think they have a good chance of becoming a good starter. By all means, if the Bills think there is a QB that is likely to be a good or better starter in the NFL, I think they should take that guy at 8. Where you are wrong is in your assignment of value to first round picks. The Bills have proven that first round picks are only as valuable as the organizational impact that player selected can provide. That's where the Bills repeatedly get it wrong. It's been pointed out many times, but the Bills repeatedly take the players with low organizational impact with their first round picks. And they do so, because they view the draft as an annual event where they get to draft a player to fill one of their many needs instead of as part of an organization-building process. Success in the NFL begins with QB play. That first pick allows the team an early shot at a QB. That's ALL you can ask for as an organization. If you never take one over a 53 year period........you are either EXTREMELY lucky or you STINK.
Sisyphean Bills Posted April 2, 2013 Posted April 2, 2013 Relax man, nobody is attacking you. I was simply saying that just picking a QB in round 1 is not sufficient to become a good team. There are bad teams with good QBs and as you point out, there are very few good teams that don't have good QBs. You have to pick a good QB and my only disagreement with your post is that I think you need to look critically at the QB prospects rather than "just taking a shot" on one every year until you get it right. I could even buy into that philosophy, but with later picks. First round picks are very valuable. An argument can be made that you should stretch the value argument to slant towards the QB position, but that doesn't mean that you should take a QB early if you don't think they have a good chance of becoming a good starter. By all means, if the Bills think there is a QB that is likely to be a good or better starter in the NFL, I think they should take that guy at 8. Has a team ever drafted a QB in the 1st round every single draft for multiple drafts? How would they know when they "got it right" so they could control themselves exactly? That sounds like the perfect hot-pocket approach for a franchise with no plan, aimless direction, and a spinning door philosophy in the football department. Nix has been a failure because he has spent (essentially) zero resources on QB and threw cap money away in doing it! He said day 1 on the job that he believed the Bills already had QB talent on the roster & that some people would think he was crazy for saying it. Turned out "some people" knew more than Buddy. He had a QB that could dink-and-dunk between the 20s, a journeyman QB with bad mechanics, a Brohm for sweeping the kitchen, and a coach that thought he could make silk purses out of sow's ears every time he steps into a QB meeting room. If Nix had spent even a 2nd or 3rd round pick on a QB to develop, the team probably would not be bent over a barrel and forced to salvage something that looks like a QB out of the NFL dump entering 2013 free agency. "Just hose the rotten banana peels and cabbage off him, he'll be fine."
Kelly the Dog Posted April 2, 2013 Posted April 2, 2013 This is a good read from Greg Cosell, one of the very best IMO, about the Bills and Kolb. http://blogs.canoe.ca/krykslants/sports/qa-greg-cosell-on-kolb-with-the-bills/
CodeMonkey Posted April 2, 2013 Posted April 2, 2013 This is a good read from Greg Cosell, one of the very best IMO, about the Bills and Kolb. http://blogs.canoe.c...with-the-bills/ Interesting read, thanks. If this guy is right then the Bills think about Kolb what many here thought about Fitz before last season, use him as a game manager and he will be OK. We will see.
metzelaars_lives Posted April 2, 2013 Posted April 2, 2013 Replace Kolb with Fitz and 2012 with 2011... Fitz was way better and way more instrumental in his teams' hot starts in 2011 than Kolb was in 2012. Fitz was the AFC offensive player of the month for September.
Kelly the Dog Posted April 2, 2013 Posted April 2, 2013 Interesting read, thanks. If this guy is right then the Bills think about Kolb what many here thought about Fitz before last season, use him as a game manager and he will be OK. We will see. Yep. There is a famous quote in the screenwriting and filmmaking trade that "No one knows anything" that pretty much applies to evaluating players and especially college prospects. No one is right even 75% of the time on their evaluations. And even if you are dead on in retrospect, you didn't KNOW it, you guessed it and guessed right, usually ignoring all the other wrong guesses you made. Cosell is one of the very best, if not the best, IMO, because he backs up what he says with specifics, and usually very believable, understandable reasons. He's not always right obviously but he's great at what he does. That was probably the best explanation I have seen about what the Bills were thinking and what they are getting.
atlbillsfan1975 Posted April 2, 2013 Posted April 2, 2013 Yep. There is a famous quote in the screenwriting and filmmaking trade that "No one knows anything" that pretty much applies to evaluating players and especially college prospects. No one is right even 75% of the time on their evaluations. And even if you are dead on in retrospect, you didn't KNOW it, you guessed it and guessed right, usually ignoring all the other wrong guesses you made. Cosell is one of the very best, if not the best, IMO, because he backs up what he says with specifics, and usually very believable, understandable reasons. He's not always right obviously but he's great at what he does. That was probably the best explanation I have seen about what the Bills were thinking and what they are getting. I think you are exactly right. the NFL is often a league of copy cats. One team does something that works and others try to replicate it. Everyone saw what Seattle did last year. Went out and signed Flynn that could be average to good. The Seahawks then went out and drafted Wilson in the third round. Let the two compete in training camp and see what happens. The Kold move does just what Cosell says, lets Buffalo address one of their other areas of need. Play maker on O or D at pick 8. Then the The Kolb move also means the Bills do not have to get nervous and pick a QB some where in the draft they do not need to. If someone like EJ Manuel is there in the second and the Bills think 'we need to take him now because we had him rated as a mid to late 1st rounder' they do. Or Bray in the third. If those guys go before the Bills pick then so be it. Keep waiting till a QB rated higher then where you pick is available in round 2-4. Take him and let the competition begin.
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