Cool and Calm look at Bills moves

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

Of all the people we lost, the only one worth talking about is Levitre. Yes in theory we are worse today at WR and LB than we were on Jan 1st. but we also sucked at those two positions on Jan 1st so not much of a lose

 

Losing Levitre, Nelson, Kelsay, Merriman, Jones, Wilson, etc and adding Lawson and Kolb - huge !@#$ing F

[Kemp]

Grading an off-season before the draft is amusing, at best. You grade the off-season at some point in the following season.

[Dibs]

No doubt that it is His job to identify a great QB, but I still think it is VERY underrated how hard it is to find/evaluate these guys. For one example, look back a few years when Alex Smith went #1 overall and Aaron Rodgers lasted into the 20s. Certainly there were teams between 1 and GB had need for a QB and yet they missed on him.

 

To be fair to the collective minds of the NFL scouting departments, both Smith & Rodgers were recognized as having potential and were both selected inside the 1st round. The scouts were obviously not able to predict the exact end result......but were definitely on the money in recognizing that both players had potential.

 

 

Also, in a QB-starved league, how could it be that Tom Brady was a 6th round pick and Colin Kaepernick lasted till round two and Russell Wilson round 3?

 

Kaepernick was selected at #36......only 4 places outside the 1st round.

Wilson is unusually short for an NFL QB and that negative factor was obviously overplayed by the scouts.

Brady? He was scrawny looking kid who nobody thought had the goods.

 

The real reason is that even though the NFL scouts(as a whole) are exceptional at spotting potential greatness in young QBs.....mistakes occasionally happen.

 

To show how good they are, have a look at their success rates(which I will do below).

 

For the sake of the following numbers I will prematurely list Kaepernick, Wilson, Luck & RG3 as elite QBs(though I personally fully hesitate with three of those).

My choices of elite QBs is obviously a somewhat subjective list....for instance, I don't class Schaub as elite.....nor do I class Bledsoe or McNair as elite etc.

 

 

In the last 25 years of drafting.....1988-2012

 

QBs selected after pick 36

Total drafted = 218

Elite QBs = 2 (Brady, Wilson)

Percent = 0.9% (1 in 109 picks)

 

QBs selected between pick 1-36

Total drafted = 59

Elite QBs = 13 (Aikman, Favre, Manning, McNabb, Brees, Roethlisberger, Manning, Rodgers, Flacco, Ryan, Kaepernick, RG3, Luck)

Percent = 22% (1 in 4.5 picks)

 

 

It is clear that the collective minds of the NFL scouts virtually never miss on assessing whether a QB has the chance to become elite.....and it is a very rare situation for a QB to fall below the #36 pick and then become an elite talent.

 

This is why I balk every time I see somebody post "We can pick up a good QB in the 2nd round(meaning our #41 pick)." Odds are that if a QB is allowed to fall to the 41st spot....there is little chance that he will become a great NFL QB.

Edited April 1, 2013 by Dibs

[metzelaars_lives]

Most people know I'm one of the more optimistic posters on here. I'd like to play along with you here, but the fact of the matter is that there was no logical explanation for them not re-signing Nelson. None. Kevin Kolb is a downgrade from Ryan Fitzpatrick. Please disagree with me. You'll see. Manny Lawson is a jabroni. I agree with you on not re-signing Levitre all day. But you gotta make a play for a Laron Landry. You gotta sign a Fred Davis. If not Nelson, then they should've signed Danario Alexander. Unless they're tanking the season- which I'm OK with- then this has been a WTF offseason thus far, I don't care how you dice it.

[RuntheDamnBall]

Most people know I'm one of the more optimistic posters on here. I'd like to play along with you here, but the fact of the matter is that there was no logical explanation for them not re-signing Nelson. None. Kevin Kolb is a downgrade from Ryan Fitzpatrick. Please disagree with me. You'll see. Manny Lawson is a jabroni. I agree with you on not re-signing Levitre all day. But you gotta make a play for a Laron Landry. You gotta sign a Fred Davis. If not Nelson, then they should've signed Danario Alexander. Unless they're tanking the season- which I'm OK with- then this has been a WTF offseason thus far, I don't care how you dice it.

Of all things, I am not too worried that they didn't sign a TE coming off an Achilles injury.

 

Takeo Spikes was one of my favorite Bills and he was a shell of himself after that injury.

[OldTimer1960]

To be fair to the collective minds of the NFL scouting departments, both Smith & Rodgers were recognized as having potential and were both selected inside the 1st round. The scouts were obviously not able to predict the exact end result......but were definitely on the money in recognizing that both players had potential.

 

 

 

 

Kaepernick was selected at #36......only 4 places outside the 1st round.

Wilson is unusually short for an NFL QB and that negative factor was obviously overplayed by the scouts.

Brady? He was scrawny looking kid who nobody thought had the goods.

 

The real reason is that even though the NFL scouts(as a whole) are exceptional at spotting potential greatness in young QBs.....mistakes occasionally happen.

 

To show how good they are, have a look at their success rates(which I will do below).

 

For the sake of the following numbers I will prematurely list Kaepernick, Wilson, Luck & RG3 as elite QBs(though I personally fully hesitate with three of those).

My choices of elite QBs is obviously a somewhat subjective list....for instance, I don't class Schaub as elite.....nor do I class Bledsoe or McNair as elite etc.

 

 

In the last 25 years of drafting.....1988-2012

 

QBs selected after pick 36

Total drafted = 218

Elite QBs = 2 (Brady, Wilson)

Percent = 0.9% (1 in 109 picks)

 

QBs selected between pick 1-36

Total drafted = 59

Elite QBs = 13 (Aikman, Favre, Manning, McNabb, Brees, Roethlisberger, Manning, Rodgers, Flacco, Ryan, Kaepernick, RG3, Luck)

Percent = 22% (1 in 4.5 picks)

 

 

It is clear that the collective minds of the NFL scouts virtually never miss on assessing whether a QB has the chance to become elite.....and it is a very rare situation for a QB to fall below the #36 pick and then become an elite talent.

 

This is why I balk every time I see somebody post "We can pick up a good QB in the 2nd round(meaning our #41 pick)." Odds are that if a QB is allowed to fall to the 41st spot....there is little chance that he will become a great NFL QB.

 

I completely agree with the argument that if a team thinks a QB has a good chance to be very good in the NFL, then they should take him in round 1, regardless of the point in round 1. That is, if the Bills think any of these QBs have a good chance to be a good or better starter, then that should not hesitate taking them at #8.

 

I fully agree that with the exception of recent examples Dalton, Kaepernick and Wilson, that it is very rare to find a very good starting QB outside of round 1. However, I think that teams need to be very cautious to not over-draft a QB into the first round due to desperate need.

 

Most people know I'm one of the more optimistic posters on here. I'd like to play along with you here, but the fact of the matter is that there was no logical explanation for them not re-signing Nelson. None. Kevin Kolb is a downgrade from Ryan Fitzpatrick. Please disagree with me. You'll see. Manny Lawson is a jabroni. I agree with you on not re-signing Levitre all day. But you gotta make a play for a Laron Landry. You gotta sign a Fred Davis. If not Nelson, then they should've signed Danario Alexander. Unless they're tanking the season- which I'm OK with- then this has been a WTF offseason thus far, I don't care how you dice it.

 

I try to be optimistic, too. But I think the logical explanation for not resigning David Nelson is that he is still very injured. As far as I know, no other team has swooped in and signed him, either. I think that is evidence that his injury is what is keeping teams away (he was pretty productive before being injured).

[mik]

"Keeping" Byrd by tagging him is meaningless unless they turn around and sign him to a new deal.

 

The off-season has been a disappointment.

 

They need ILB, SS, TE, WR. They should have at least signed a WR. Yet they are all off, en mass, looking at all these sub-par QBs then they change direction and sign Kolb mid-stream.

 

The Bills essentially have 2 GMs in Nix and Whaley. WHY can't they be talking to FAs more agressively while the pro-personnel people are doing what they get paid to do with the college athletes?

[Mr. WEO]

I said it was addition by subtraction because we did not waste money on below average WR's that were not play makers. I was not saying the existing group as it sits today is better, I said it was better to let them walk then to waste money on guys who don't make plays. That opens up the door for us to draft more talented WR's. Our group of WR's today will not be the same group come training camp, they are going to draft some WR's in the draft, they have already said that. So, again, its addition by subtraction by saving the money and using the money on WR's with more upside in the draft. So, letting those 2 guys go was a good move IMO so we can bring in better prospects.

 

As far as Easley goes, I acknowledged I am in the minority, but I feel he has potential to be a surprise player this year on both ST and as a contributor on offense. He has shown flashes of real potential and I think with the new regime making all positions a truly open competition with no one they are partial too, he will get an opportunity to compete and could surprise.

 

Who was the last talented WR Buddy drafted?

 

What leads you to believe Kolb is better than Fitz?

[chris heff]

Lol, with the Kolb signing this board is as bipolar as ever...people predicting the first pick in the draft next year to people thinking it was a good move. Add that in to all the bipolar feelings of the other moves and its chaos in most threads lol. So lets take a look at whats really gone down, why, and where they can go from here objectively.

 

1 - Our own FA's...Most agree Bills made an intelligent decision choosing to prioritize Byrd over Levitre. Byrd is a more talented player and many believe one of the 3 best FS in football, and some think the top dog overall. Levitre, a very good player for us, was going to be over paid and the Bills made a smart decision not to bite on it. Look at all the huge FA signings for guards...they never work out and only really hurt the cap. This was a the better move moving forward. Rhinehart would have been nice, but he was nothing special and was paid more than he was worth. Guards are right there with RB's as one of the more easier positions to find good players. Choice was also kept, which I like as he is good depth, depth we will need if FJ cant stay healthy again.

 

2 - QB...best move of the off season was to cut Fitz. He was not the answer and was only holding this franchise back from truly going into a new direction under the new regime. Resigning TJ was a good move and a cheap price as he would be a solid backup and an upgrade over Pigpen. The newest move is Kolb...on the surface this is very ehhhhh, but the reality is that this was a solid signing considering what is available in the draft and FA market. What this signing does for the Bills is allow them NOT to be forced into reaching for a QB at #8, which is the best part of this add. It gives them the freedom to go BPA at 8 rather than reach for need. Same goes for rounds 2 and 3. Worst case scenario, TJ and Kolb battle it out and we ride with one until next draft year where the QB class is believed to be stronger (and we would likely still have a top half first round pick) and we use this one to take advantage of the depth of the draft at D front 7, WR, TE, and OL.

 

3 - LB...Lawson I think for the most part is seen as a very solid move for this D as he fills an important need of a LB who can drop back in coverage. Just a good all around move in my book. That being said, another addition of a good vet like Dansby would really help solidify this unit going into the draft. Add in a young stud prospect (maybe at 8 like Ogletree, Jarvis, or some slight chance Teo slips to the 2nd) and we can have a D with a lot of potential again under our new regime.

 

4 - WR...This was addition by subtraction as we didn't add anyone, but we also didn't use cap money to retain guys that really were not play makers. I am probably in the minority here, but I still think Easley has some potential and could be a surprise player this camp. But more importantly, I think the Bills most certainly grab a WR in the first or 2nd. The Kolb signing makes this even more likely given they no longer have to reach for a QB. I would not be surprised the first 2 rounds to go LB & WR or vice versa. I would love Jarvis then Hunter personally if someone like Geno/Barkley isnt there at 8 (which I don't think either will be).

 

Overall Picture...I think this team is headed in the right direction right now. They didnt over spend on this roster where it likely wouldn't have made much difference next year given the lack of QB stability anyway. They have positioned themselves to not have to reach in the draft, and if we hit on a few picks then next off season this could be a team on the rise with cap room to be a player in FA and a lot fewer holes to fill. So while many are all doom and gloom, I think the FO has actually made some smart moves this off season. I would still love to add a FA guy like Dansby and maybe a G or WR too after the draft to help round the roster out a bit more, but there is still time for that and plenty of solid players on the market still who's price is only going to continue to go down from here on out.

 

My Off Season Grade: B

Your pretty subjective in your objectivity.

[Homey D. Clown]

I could never understand Why Gailey would not try to develop Easley. I still think this kid can play. I was very high on Stevie Johnson when people were holding out hope for James Hardy, and I was immediately on board with the CJ Spiller signing from the second he was picked. Easley was a 4th round pick, and really impressed when he was given the chance, albeit a very limited body of work to judge from. There is absolutely nothing to lose in letting the kid play now that neslon, Jones, and others are recently departed. Let's hope our new coach is more practical in letting guys play.

[JohnC]

Who was the last talented WR Buddy drafted?

 

What leads you to believe Kolb is better than Fitz?

 

It's fruitless to debate which qb is better. Both of them are at the same pedestrian level. The front office was not going to keep Fitz at his current contract. Fitz was smart enough to recognize that his time ran out in western NY. At the end of the day Fitz is the type of player who will make a lot of money bouncing around the league as a dependable backup player. He is a Todd Collins type player who will find his niche as a good soldier backup. From his perspective it sure beats working long exhausting days on Wall Street and in the finance field making a lot of money, contributing little to the economy and hating what you are doing.

 

With respect to your question about our receiver corps assembled by Nix it was arguably the worst in the league. In a league tilted toward passing it was an embarrassment. His maneuver to move up in the third round to select the track receiver was a clear exhibition of his incompetence. Don't even bother asking me about last year's LBing corps. His Merriman fixation was another example of his perplexing evaluation skills. The word best describing Nix is befuddled.

[JohnC]

Lol, with the Kolb signing this board is as bipolar as ever...people predicting the first pick in the draft next year to people thinking it was a good move. Add that in to all the bipolar feelings of the other moves and its chaos in most threads lol. So lets take a look at whats really gone down, why, and where they can go from here objectively.

 

1 - Our own FA's...Most agree Bills made an intelligent decision choosing to prioritize Byrd over Levitre. Byrd is a more talented player and many believe one of the 3 best FS in football, and some think the top dog overall. Levitre, a very good player for us, was going to be over paid and the Bills made a smart decision not to bite on it. Look at all the huge FA signings for guards...they never work out and only really hurt the cap. This was a the better move moving forward. Rhinehart would have been nice, but he was nothing special and was paid more than he was worth. Guards are right there with RB's as one of the more easier positions to find good players. Choice was also kept, which I like as he is good depth, depth we will need if FJ cant stay healthy again.

 

2 - QB...best move of the off season was to cut Fitz. He was not the answer and was only holding this franchise back from truly going into a new direction under the new regime. Resigning TJ was a good move and a cheap price as he would be a solid backup and an upgrade over Pigpen. The newest move is Kolb...on the surface this is very ehhhhh, but the reality is that this was a solid signing considering what is available in the draft and FA market. What this signing does for the Bills is allow them NOT to be forced into reaching for a QB at #8, which is the best part of this add. It gives them the freedom to go BPA at 8 rather than reach for need. Same goes for rounds 2 and 3. Worst case scenario, TJ and Kolb battle it out and we ride with one until next draft year where the QB class is believed to be stronger (and we would likely still have a top half first round pick) and we use this one to take advantage of the depth of the draft at D front 7, WR, TE, and OL.

 

3 - LB...Lawson I think for the most part is seen as a very solid move for this D as he fills an important need of a LB who can drop back in coverage. Just a good all around move in my book. That being said, another addition of a good vet like Dansby would really help solidify this unit going into the draft. Add in a young stud prospect (maybe at 8 like Ogletree, Jarvis, or some slight chance Teo slips to the 2nd) and we can have a D with a lot of potential again under our new regime.

 

4 - WR...This was addition by subtraction as we didn't add anyone, but we also didn't use cap money to retain guys that really were not play makers. I am probably in the minority here, but I still think Easley has some potential and could be a surprise player this camp. But more importantly, I think the Bills most certainly grab a WR in the first or 2nd. The Kolb signing makes this even more likely given they no longer have to reach for a QB. I would not be surprised the first 2 rounds to go LB & WR or vice versa. I would love Jarvis then Hunter personally if someone like Geno/Barkley isnt there at 8 (which I don't think either will be).

 

Overall Picture...I think this team is headed in the right direction right now. They didnt over spend on this roster where it likely wouldn't have made much difference next year given the lack of QB stability anyway. They have positioned themselves to not have to reach in the draft, and if we hit on a few picks then next off season this could be a team on the rise with cap room to be a player in FA and a lot fewer holes to fill. So while many are all doom and gloom, I think the FO has actually made some smart moves this off season. I would still love to add a FA guy like Dansby and maybe a G or WR too after the draft to help round the roster out a bit more, but there is still time for that and plenty of solid players on the market still who's price is only going to continue to go down from here on out.

 

My Off Season Grade: B

 

Let's put Nix's offseason maneuvers (that are sound) in perspective. He is simply filling the holes that he created. If he were more astute he would be spending more time adding talent rather than cleaning out the talent that he inherited and he brought on board.

 

What he is doing now is what he should have done when he first took over the reigns. Finding a legitimate franchise qb should have been his priority right from the start. His calculation that Fitz was an adequate starting qb for the time being until he later addressed the qb issue was foolish, and it set this franchise back by years.

 

A clear demonstration of his incompetence was that he truly believed that the hollow roster he took over was more robust than it actually was. If you can't accuately assess the talent on your own team how can you assess talent in general? The rebuilding job in earnest should have been started three years ago, not now.

[ChasBB]

I am probably in the minority here, but I still think Easley has some potential and could be a surprise player this camp.

Nice analysis -- and I agree with you about Easley.

[Joe W]

Losing Levitre, Nelson, Kelsay, Merriman, Jones, Wilson, etc and adding Lawson and Kolb - huge !@#$ing F

 

F-

Edited April 2, 2013 by Joe W

[DukeyBomb]

Losing Levitre, Nelson, Kelsay, Merriman, Jones, Wilson, etc and adding Lawson and Kolb - huge !@#$ing F

 

Yeah because Kelsay, Merriman, Jones and Nelson were REALLY big helps! And it's not like Searcy was taking over the majority of the SS snaps or that he's younger and probably more physically talented than Wilson. No, it's not like any of that stuff is true.

[birdog1960]

the biggest offseason mistake was retaining nix. given his track record, how many other teams would even have him on their payroll much less be their gm?