WhitewalkerInPhilly Posted March 31, 2013 Posted March 31, 2013 (edited) I think, given Nix historical lack of wheeler-dealering in the draft, this is probably the correct diagnosis. They found 3 QB they believe have potential as starters, they're willing to take whoever's there, and they don't think any of them will be ready to start his rookie season so they wanted a reasonable option to TJax to avoid throwing a raw prospect into the fire and ruining him. When the Kolb contract comes out, I'm betting there will be little guaranteed or dead money and mucho incentives. They may keep both Kolb and TJax to hedge their bets, or they may cut one in camp. I think it's also probable there are several other position players they believe will be available at #8 and they plan to stay pat and draft one. I would personally like them to trade back, but I don't see it based on Nix' history. Seems like. I won't rule out the possibility of someone we think is a starter at QB dropping into our lap at #8, but I'm thinking that the Bills are looking at Manuel, Nassib and possibly Wilson at #41, with an eye out on Barkley if he drops and possibly Matt Scott if we think we can wait until round 3 or 4. Edited March 31, 2013 by Whitewalker Merriman
JohnC Posted March 31, 2013 Posted March 31, 2013 You're right John but I don't think they like any QBs at #8 but If Smith does fall then they may take him or try to move down. I agree that Kolb is a good signing. He is a decent QB and I think the Bills feel they can build a good defense with a little coaching as opposed to last year with none. In many ways this draft is more interesting than drafts that had the special qb prospects, like last year. It is going to be very interesting to see not only how the Bills handle the qb issue but how other qb needy teams also address that issue. Another intriguing aspect to this year's draft is the varied opinions on the qbs. Some analysts rate Nassib and Barkley very highly, and many others have a harsher view of them. Even on Geno Smith there is no clear cut view on him as there was with Luck and RGIII last year. This is a draft in which the qbs drafted most highly don't necessarily in the long run turn out to be the better qbs. Maybe a qb such as Glennon, like Flacco, in time will be the best value pick? Geno Smith comes with a lot of questions and I don't think it is even a guarantee that he'll be the first QB taken in this draft. All the qbs in this draft have question marks. It's not like last year where there was almost unanimity on Luck and RGIII. Although there is no guarantee that Smith will be the first qb taken it is most likely. That's an opinion that can reaonably be challenged.
voodoo poonani Posted March 31, 2013 Posted March 31, 2013 Kolb is worthless IMO. I hated Fitz but he's better than Kolb. I think the Bills stay put as always, and see if Geno Smith falls to them at 8 or EJ Manuel at 41. Everyone else, again IMO, isn't worth being drafted in the top three rounds. Failing to come away with anybody, we're going to suck next season anyways so we'll have a better shot to get "our guy" next year.
San-O Posted March 31, 2013 Posted March 31, 2013 I think your wrong there...if anything hopefully we can fall back like we say every year and gain more picks. I think there is some talent for qb's this year but not in the first round. I like Glennon in the 2nd round and maybe if Kline in the 5th. + 1 The Bills aren't going anywhere, this year, again. So trade back or out of the first, pick up as many young players as possible. There are holes all over the place.
artmalibu Posted March 31, 2013 Posted March 31, 2013 I dont understand all the push to REACH for a QB!! I understand it is an area of need, but missing in a 1st or 2nd round pick will cost for years to come. If we had a legit WR corps any QB will be more successful. Right now Aaron Rogers would not look good throwing the ball to the current WRs.
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted March 31, 2013 Posted March 31, 2013 I see a LB or WR in rd 1 then nassib glennon or Emanuel in rd 2 or 3. Smith and Barkley aren't going to be the guys.
OldTimer1960 Posted March 31, 2013 Posted March 31, 2013 (edited) Another intriguing aspect to this year's draft is the varied opinions on the qbs. Some analysts rate Nassib and Barkley very highly, and many others have a harsher view of them. Even on Geno Smith there is no clear cut view on him as there was with Luck and RGIII last year. This is a draft in which the qbs drafted most highly don't necessarily in the long run turn out to be the better qbs. Maybe a qb such as Glennon, like Flacco, in time will be the best value pick? All the qbs in this draft have question marks. It's not like last year where there was almost unanimity on Luck and RGIII. Although there is no guarantee that Smith will be the first qb taken it is most likely. That's an opinion that can reaonably be challenged. This is why, my opinion is to stay away from any of these QBs in round 1. I would like to see them take a good OT (if available) to pair with Cordy Glenn and focus on the run game and provide very good pass protection to whomever is playing QB. All QBs look better with a strong running game and good pass protection. OTs are seemingly much easier to assess in the draft than most other positions, too. Edited March 31, 2013 by OldTimer1960
Sisyphean Bills Posted March 31, 2013 Posted March 31, 2013 Disagree with the OP. The Kolb signing is seen as a move to protect themselves so that they do not have to chase a QB up the board. They have plenty of holes to fill. I don't get the thought process that a team signs players to increase their own anxiety about some position. Talking heads and fans may not be sold on the move, but if the Bills signed Kolb it was because they thought he could help the team.
Mr. WEO Posted March 31, 2013 Posted March 31, 2013 Correct. So you wonder if the Cowboys would be willing to trade up to #8 to take Warmack, who could get them over the hump... An O-lineman won't get any team over the hump.
JohnC Posted March 31, 2013 Posted March 31, 2013 This is why, my opinion is to stay away from any of these QBs in round 1. I would like to see them take a good OT (if available) to pair with Cordy Glenn and focus on the run game and provide very good pass protection to whomever is playing QB. All QBs look better with a strong running game and good pass protection. OTs are seemingly much easier to assess in the draft than most other positions, too. If the Bills brain trust feel strongly about a particular qb prospect then they should take him at the eight spot. If not, then don't. There are other approaches to take. As you suggested they could take one of the top three OTs if still on the board. My preference would be to trade down in the first round and then take the qb you like and use the extra pick/picks to address other positions. What none of us knows is how much they really like and rank the qbs in this draft. It is difficult to grasp how the evaluations are because the evaluatiions are so varied. There is another aspect to the qb issue in this draft. There are a number of teams drafting ahead of us in the second round who should have an interest in this qb class. If the Bills wait for the second round they may lose out on a qb they really like. That is why I prefer trading down and securing the qb position and using the added picks for other needs.
KOKBILLS Posted March 31, 2013 Posted March 31, 2013 If the Bills brain trust feel strongly about a particular qb prospect then they should take him at the eight spot. If not, then don't. There are other approaches to take. As you suggested they could take one of the top three OTs if still on the board. My preference would be to trade down in the first round and then take the qb you like and use the extra pick/picks to address other positions. What none of us knows is how much they really like and rank the qbs in this draft. It is difficult to grasp how the evaluations are because the evaluatiions are so varied. There is another aspect to the qb issue in this draft. There are a number of teams drafting ahead of us in the second round who should have an interest in this qb class. If the Bills wait for the second round they may lose out on a qb they really like. That is why I prefer trading down and securing the qb position and using the added picks for other needs. Agreed... If Buddy Nix has shown us anything about his Draft strategy (or lack thereof) it's that he believes in being true to his board, even where QB are concerned...Now, he has commented that he's learned his lesson about the fact that QB's elevate in the Draft...But still, there are basically no scouts, agencies, "experts," or anybody you can find commenting on this Draft, that have more than one of the QB's ranked in the Top 8 players...Most have NO QB's ranked in the Top 8...So...If the Bills are going to be true to their board, while still realizing they are going to have to over-draft a QB just a bit, a trade down in the 1st makes the most sense...Add to that the fact that Buddy spoke about getting more picks with the Tampa GM on the now famous phone call, and I think we can put two and two together here... I think it's common knowledge that Joeckel, Jordan, Fisher, Milliner, and Floyd are gone in the Top 7 picks for sure...That means at #8 between Lane Johnson, Star Lotulelei, and Geno Smith...One of them will be available for sure...There can be an argument made for the Bills staying at #8 and taking either Johnson or Smith...But in the case of Johnson being the player remaining I think the return could be very nice if the Bills decide to trade out of that pick... So the trade down possibility is real, and I think there is a lot of logic behind it...We'll see if that's the way they decide to go...
marauderswr80 Posted March 31, 2013 Posted March 31, 2013 They found 2-3 QBs they want and are content letting one of them fall to 41. Those QBs IMO are Manuel, Wilson and Nassib, perhaps in that order. Exactly! I think Nassib is the guy! He knows the offense, less of a learning curve can start right away. However with the money spent on Kolb tells me hes our starter and the rookie QB will take time to develope. But then again if Nassib is the guy, he shouldnt need the time due to knowing the offense! So....maybe nassib is not the guy? IMHO....i like EJ Manuel...
nucci Posted March 31, 2013 Posted March 31, 2013 I dont understand all the push to REACH for a QB!! I understand it is an area of need, but missing in a 1st or 2nd round pick will cost for years to come. If we had a legit WR corps any QB will be more successful. Right now Aaron Rogers would not look good throwing the ball to the current WRs. Yes, he would. How many times was Spiller open deep, Johnson open all day or Chandler wide open in the middle and Fitz would miss them?
KOKBILLS Posted March 31, 2013 Posted March 31, 2013 Right now Aaron Rogers would not look good throwing the ball to the current WRs.
JohnC Posted March 31, 2013 Posted March 31, 2013 Agreed... If Buddy Nix has shown us anything about his Draft strategy (or lack thereof) it's that he believes in being true to his board, even where QB are concerned...Now, he has commented that he's learned his lesson about the fact that QB's elevate in the Draft...But still, there are basically no scouts, agencies, "experts," or anybody you can find commenting on this Draft, that have more than one of the QB's ranked in the Top 8 players...Most have NO QB's ranked in the Top 8...So...If the Bills are going to be true to their board, while still realizing they are going to have to over-draft a QB just a bit, a trade down in the 1st makes the most sense...Add to that the fact that Buddy spoke about getting more picks with the Tampa GM on the now famous phone call, and I think we can put two and two together here... I think it's common knowledge that Joeckel, Jordan, Fisher, Milliner, and Floyd are gone in the Top 7 picks for sure...That means at #8 between Lane Johnson, Star Lotulelei, and Geno Smith...One of them will be available for sure...There can be an argument made for the Bills staying at #8 and taking either Johnson or Smith...But in the case of Johnson being the player remaining I think the return could be very nice if the Bills decide to trade out of that pick... So the trade down possibility is real, and I think there is a lot of logic behind it...We'll see if that's the way they decide to go... The staying true to your board mentality is a limiting perspective when building a roster. Even the sluggish Nix has finally come to his senses to the realization that positional value has to be factored in when choosing players in the draft. A top of the board rated player such as OT Fisher/Jaekle is not going to have the same influence on improving a team as a lower mid first round rated qb who is capable of being a good franchise qb. Because of his late to the dance approach to the qb issue I get the sense that he and the organization are taking a full court approach to addressing the qb issue. The irony is if Buddy would have addressed the qb issue sooner when Kaepernick (2nd round) and Wilson (third round) were available he could have then stayed in the comfort zone of his value board in the subsequent drafts. I'm not saying anything that isn't blatantly obvious to most Bills' fans but until there is a legitimate longterm franchise qb taking the snaps this franchise will continue to be relegated to the ash heap of irrelevancy. This is the year to get that done so this franchise can move on to addressing so many other pressing needs.
Lurker Posted March 31, 2013 Posted March 31, 2013 with the signing of Kolb the Bills are not picking a QB with their 1st pick. I can still see a QB at 8. The Kolb move could just mean they realize (after their extensive due diligence the past few weeks) that none of this year's crop can be a year-one contributor. A guy like Smith or Manuel could be a franchise-type player in their mind, but not without a "red shirt" year...
NewEra Posted March 31, 2013 Posted March 31, 2013 No one has ANY IDEA what the bills are thinking. They might love Kolb and think they've solved their problem at QB. They might think he's just a one year stop gap. They might love 3-6 QBs in this draft. They might not love any.
Malazan Posted March 31, 2013 Posted March 31, 2013 In many ways this draft is more interesting than drafts that had the special qb prospects, like last year. It is going to be very interesting to see not only how the Bills handle the qb issue but how other qb needy teams also address that issue. Another intriguing aspect to this year's draft is the varied opinions on the qbs. Some analysts rate Nassib and Barkley very highly, and many others have a harsher view of them. Even on Geno Smith there is no clear cut view on him as there was with Luck and RGIII last year. I think the old axiom applies here, "If you have two starting QBs, you have none." None of these guys are clear cut prospects like Luck. There may be a good QB or two in there, but it's a big risk betting on any one of these guys in the top ten.
T master Posted March 31, 2013 Posted March 31, 2013 If we don't with a quarterback at number eight, the team will HAVE to give up MULTIPLE picks to move up in the draft. There is no way they will be able to sit there at 41 and have their pick of who they want. Teams like Jacksonville, Philly and Arizona are in front of us and may avoid taking a QB in round one. HOWEVER, those teams will likely take a pick from the thick group of 2nd-round talents. On top of that, the Jets move ahead of us in the 2nd round draft order and will likely be looking for a QB there. If we want to get "our" guy, or one of the "two" guys that Nix has said are likely somewhere in this draft then we'll have to move up. Just pray this Kolb pickup doesn't mean they're going to just settle for whatever falls to them at 41. You hit your head they got Kolb so they can get a QB later in the draft not higher, due to the fact there are no RG3 in this draft !!
Dibs Posted March 31, 2013 Posted March 31, 2013 This absolutely means they will settle for whoever falls to them at 41 (or even in the third). In fact this gives even more fuel to the argument that we should trade this years 1 for someone's no 1 next year and their no 2 or 3 this year, trade both no1s next year to get 1 overall and go get bridgewater or manziel. now that makes a lot of sense to me now that we have a couple guys who can take snaps this year and not drop the ball or win many games. So which team are you thinking will be so horrible that they will end up with the #1 draft pick next year......and be willing to trade it away? In other words, the worst team in the league most likely won't have an elite QB on their roster. What makes you think that they will trade away a potential star QB at any price?
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