4merper4mer Posted March 26, 2013 Author Posted March 26, 2013 That is a textbook way of bombing a draft. You take a guy who can produce IMMEDIATELY, from day 1 at 8. Not a project WR that will be good 2-3 years down the line. If Jarvis Jones, Ziggy Ansah, Star Louteilei, or Dion Jordan is there, you take one of them. None of this "REACHING" for players garbage. This is how we got here in the first place. I still laugh at people who think we're set at the pass rush department. We need pass rushers and CBs. I'll even take Dee Milliner at 8 if he's available. Pure garbage I agree on taking that WR being like forfeiting a pick but Ansah is a project and didn't that Star guy already have a heart attack at age 22? Skip them too. Jones, Jordan, Milliner or Manuel should be the pick if we don't have the guts to take legal risk on Manziel.
bobobonators Posted March 26, 2013 Posted March 26, 2013 i'd rather just trade our 3rd round pick to the Titans for Fitzy.
ColdBlueNorth Posted March 26, 2013 Posted March 26, 2013 (edited) The more I think about it I dont draft a QB at all this year. Lets address other areas go 2-14 and grab a top notch one next year. This is what people said last year. And the year before. And the year before that. What happens if Bridgewater and Manziel both stay in school? The idea of waiting another year is dumb. Take a guy every year if you have to. We can't keep ignoring the QB position hoping that an elite one falls in our laps the next year. We all slant the truth a bit to get our points across, but last year many people here felt we were OK at QB with Fitz because our "improved" defense would keep us in games and he would not be asked to do too much. I also wondered if perhaps that cracked rib was the reason his play tailed off so badly towards the end of the year and if it was healed why not give him another shot. This year is completely different in that the new HC let Ryan walk (which I do not see as a problem, Fitzpatrick had his shot at being THE guy), the Bills front office knows we need a QB. The only debate is simply is there one worth taking at 8 overall in this draft? It is like going to the grocery store needing apples and all the have is lemons - we can talk up the prospects all we want, but the truth is that no one in this class of QBs really stands out in the way that they led their respective teams - not even Smith who barely gets a 1st round grade (and I am not talking about where all the mocks have him going). Going the Indy route of tanking one year (where your team is obviously rebuilding on both sides of the ball under new coaching) to have a better shot at a more highly touted QB prospect next year is not crazy talk. It seemed to work out well for Indianapolis just when they were needing to get a new QB that could be groomed to take over the house that Peyton built. There is merit in trying to load up on picks and getting a late round QB that has upside and playing him behind center this year, and take another one that is more of a 1st round talent/lock next year. They would push each other and one would separate himself as the best and the other would be a backup. You would not help your team or cap by paying 1st round money each year reaching on a 2nd or 3rd round QB talent. Edited March 27, 2013 by ColdBlueNorth
4merper4mer Posted March 26, 2013 Author Posted March 26, 2013 Going the Indy route of tanking one year (where your team is obviously rebuilding on both sides of the ball under new coaching) to have a better shot at a more highly touted QB prospect next year is not crazy talk. It seemed to work out well for Indianapolis just when they were needing to get a new QB that could be groomed to take over the house that Peyton built. The Littman route looks like the Indy route in the first year when you stink out loud. The difference kicks in in year 2 when you don't draft the top QB because you don't want to spend the money. You draft a Glove Wearing Mary in round 3 at best.
atlbillsfan1975 Posted March 26, 2013 Posted March 26, 2013 Really? By "any guy" are you meaning to say "any QB"? No any player. Think about it, if he was the best prospect to come out at his position in a few years and a 'sure fire lock' he would be gone by 8. he just would. Those guys are always gone by 5 heck even 3 usually.
eme123 Posted March 26, 2013 Posted March 26, 2013 NO! Round 2 isn't worth the risk. The Bills need to find out who their guy is and go and get him at 8.
KOKBILLS Posted March 26, 2013 Posted March 26, 2013 (edited) Let's say the Bills like the QBs in this order: Manuel Smith Glennon Nassib Pick #8 comes up and all are still available. There are no potential trade down partners. What do you do? Do you pick Manuel? You like him better than anyone else. Do you wait until round two knowing that Smith will be gone but hoping that Manuel lasts? It is likely that most teams like Smith best do there is at least one QB that goes before Manuel. Are Nassib and Glennon good enough as consolation prizes? Does your plan become trading back in ahead of a team that you think wants Manuel? Those are all hypotheticals. One general question is whether you think Manuel will last and become an option for the Bills at #41. One thing to remember about Manuel...Mike Mayock moved him up to the #2 QB spot for a reason...Mayock is really tapped in to numerous NFL scouts, personnel guys, and GM's across the league...He does this every year...One example last year was Chandler Jones who Mayock elevated late...One of the people Mayock talks to the most (and is closest to) is Bill Belichick, Who took Jones in the 1st Round...Mayock does not do these things unless he knows something first...Then he goes back and watches more tape on the individual kid...He never says who he's talked to or anything like that...He just moves the player up assuming he sees the same thing on tape these scouts are telling him they see... Mayock said yesterday he believes Manuel will be a 1st round pick...You can all but bank on the fact that someone has told him they'll take Manuel in the 1st if they get a chance...I think this is a sneaky way that Mayock stays ahead of these other Draft gurus...He gets better info because NFL scouts like him more, and trust him... Edited March 26, 2013 by KOKBILLS
The Big Cat Posted March 26, 2013 Posted March 26, 2013 (edited) One thing to remember about Manuel...Mike Mayock moved him up to the #2 QB spot for a reason...Mayock is really tapped in to numerous NFL Scouts, Personnel guys, and GM's across the league...He does this every year...One example last year was Chandler Jones who Mayock elevated late...One of the people Mayock talks to the most (and is closest to) is Bill Belichick, Who took Jones in the 1st Round...Mayock does not do these things unless he knows something first...Then he goes back and watches more tape on the individual kid...He never says who he's talked to or anything like that...He just moves the player up assuming he sees the same thing on tape these scouts are telling him they see... Mayock said yesterday he believe Manuel will be a 1st round pick...You can all but bank on the fact that someone has told him they'll take Manuel in the 1st if they get a chance...I think this is a sneaky way that Mayock stays ahead of these other Draft gurus...He gets better info because NFL scouts like him more, and trust him... It's a fine premise, but one thing to note moving forward: the media gets its scoops and info from agents, not GM's/coaches/scouts. Edited March 26, 2013 by taC giB ehT
1billsfan Posted March 26, 2013 Posted March 26, 2013 If EJ is the complete player that you are talking about, then he would be projected as a #1 pick, especially in the days when "read option" QBs seems to be the hot thing....I am yet to see a single draft expert put Manuel at the top of the draft board. I didn't say he's complete, but he's certainly not a "project" either. He's a guy that is worthy of a first round pick by all the draft sites I've seen and from what I've read. IMO projects are guys that need a lot of development and that will take at least two years to turn into a quality NFL starting QB if they ever do. EJ Manuel is more of a boom/bust guy, in that he has everything you want in a modern QB, however you just don't know if he has that "it" factor to take him to the top of the NFL. Everyone knew that RGIII and Luck had the "it" factor. But the QBs in this class are more the norm. With Spiller, Johnson, Graham, plus adding a quality WR like Hunter or Wheatley in the 2nd and McDonald the TE from Rice in the 3rd...Manuel would have a great opportunity to hit the ground running with a solid rookie year as the starter. He just needs to be coached out of some bad habits with his mechanics.
Adam Posted March 26, 2013 Posted March 26, 2013 Let's say the Bills like the QBs in this order: Manuel Smith Glennon Nassib Pick #8 comes up and all are still available. There are no potential trade down partners. What do you do? Do you pick Manuel? You like him better than anyone else. Do you wait until round two knowing that Smith will be gone but hoping that Manuel lasts? It is likely that most teams like Smith best do there is at least one QB that goes before Manuel. Are Nassib and Glennon good enough as consolation prizes? Does your plan become trading back in ahead of a team that you think wants Manuel? Those are all hypotheticals. One general question is whether you think Manuel will last and become an option for the Bills at #41. I'm hoping we don't take a quarterback until the fourth round. These guys just aren't that good.
hondo in seattle Posted March 26, 2013 Posted March 26, 2013 Smith and IMO Barkley are the 2 best QBs and potetial immidiate impact players. and theyl both more than likley be gone at #8. Makes more sense to take Patterson whose gona be an impact player and a big position of need then just some QB just to take one, when other talent at QB will be there at 41, telent to be groomed There isn't any guarantees that the QB we hypothetically take at #8 will be an NFL star either. But where are the odds better? At the QB position or some other? First round QBs only become good starters about half the time. Other positions are safer bets in the first round. It's easier to project how a guard, for example, will play in the NFL than a QB. Making this draft more problematic for the Bills, it's widely considered to be a weak QB class. Maybe none of the top QBs deserve to go in the 1 round (though some will). And maybe none of these QBs turn out to be solid starters. While I understand the sense of urgency many feel regarding the QB position, I'm not convinced it's a good move to roll the dice with a QB at #8. I understand why the OP suggest that it might be better to wait for our 2nd pick. The QBs available there might be as likely to succeed in the NFL as any available at #8.
Ludwig van Posted March 26, 2013 Posted March 26, 2013 Trade back out of #8 pick up Nassib and extra picks. If he dosent work out we have next years #1 for another qb..
Nitro Posted March 26, 2013 Posted March 26, 2013 (edited) ESPN did a 5 year study on predraft rankings (top 10 ranked QBs). After Smith, the rest of this draft class would be 17th or worse. So if Smith is gone, do not go and draft a QB with the 8th pick that is really a 2nd or 3rd round talent. Draft the best player on the board. This team needs a talent upgrade. There will be opportunity to draft a QB in the 2nd. No need to panic. Edited March 26, 2013 by Nitro
atlbillsfan1975 Posted March 26, 2013 Posted March 26, 2013 There isn't any guarantees that the QB we hypothetically take at #8 will be an NFL star either. But where are the odds better? At the QB position or some other? First round QBs only become good starters about half the time. Other positions are safer bets in the first round. It's easier to project how a guard, for example, will play in the NFL than a QB. Making this draft more problematic for the Bills, it's widely considered to be a weak QB class. Maybe none of the top QBs deserve to go in the 1 round (though some will). And maybe none of these QBs turn out to be solid starters. While I understand the sense of urgency many feel regarding the QB position, I'm not convinced it's a good move to roll the dice with a QB at #8. I understand why the OP suggest that it might be better to wait for our 2nd pick. The QBs available there might be as likely to succeed in the NFL as any available at #8. There are maybe a couple of reasons for this. First off a gaurd is no where near as noticable as a QB or even a tackle. Gaurds are often times getting help from another linemen or even a RB. With many rookies coming into the NFL and instantly succeeding at QB i think the times are changing. It takes a smart coach to develope his qb. Also scheme to his strengths earl on to build confidence,
fansince88 Posted March 26, 2013 Posted March 26, 2013 no....it's time to stop dragging our feet at the qb position. it's been bungled up by Nix over and over again........1st rounder qb is a neccesity now. and I dont care who, just make it happen!
ProbablyWrong Posted March 26, 2013 Posted March 26, 2013 NO! Round 2 isn't worth the risk. The Bills need to find out who their guy is and go and get him at 8. What if there is no "their guy"?
Bangarang Posted March 26, 2013 Posted March 26, 2013 What if there is no "their guy"? It's a fact that Nix will draft a QB early. So we know that there will be somebody that he likes more than the rest.
1billsfan Posted March 26, 2013 Posted March 26, 2013 (edited) It's a fact that Nix will draft a QB early. So we know that there will be somebody that he likes more than the rest. I'm about 99% sure the Bills will draft either Geno Smith or EJ Manuel at #8. Look what Marrone did with an average skilled player like Ryan Nassib. Can you imagine what he can do with real NFL skilled talent like Smith or Manuel? I feel bad that there seems to be a number of fans here who's enthusiasm has been tamped down with the criticisms of these two players. I'm very excited because it seems that they are both hard workers who love football and are very motivated to excel at the next level. You combine that with their skills and this coaching staff and you have the recipe for the Bills finally finding a real franchise QB again. Edited March 26, 2013 by 1billsfan
KOKBILLS Posted March 26, 2013 Posted March 26, 2013 It's a fine premise, but one thing to note moving forward: the media gets its scoops and info from agents, not GM's/coaches/scouts. Not Mayock...He gets his info from the teams...FO, Coaches, Scouts...etc...Sometimes from College Coaches too...If you know anything about Mike Mayock, and his make-up, you would know...I'm going to go out on a limb and bet he does not talk to Agents at all...He's just not that kind of guy...It's not his style...He's 100% old-school...
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