dave mcbride Posted March 25, 2013 Posted March 25, 2013 (edited) Good posts. As you pointed out, my earlier impression was mistaken. Whitner is a more highly paid safety than I'd previously realized. But at least according to the link you just provided, in 2012 his performance justified only about 30% of the salary he actually received. The other 70% was him getting overpaid for what he was actually producing. As I'd pointed out earlier, PFF is not definitive; and opinions will vary about the extent to which Whitner had been overpaid back in 2012. Nevertheless, that article is worth quoting: ********** For all the impressive displays on the 49ers’ defense, one guy who didn’t stand out for the right reasons was the former Bill, Whitner. He gave up more touchdowns than any other safety in the league (eight) and missed more tackles than you’d like (12). An area for this team to improve. ********* Given that the 49ers had a better pass rush than almost any other team, the fact that Whitner still led safeties in TDs surrendered says a lot. You'd think that the safety who surrenders the most TDs would play for a team with a lousy pass rush. Also, Whitner has the reputation of being a good tackler, because of the highlight reel hits he occasionally delivers. But all those missed tackles suggest his reputation might be over-inflated. I fixed my post above to clarify that the PFF assessment of him as a pro bowl level player was for 2011, not 2012 (not that it matters for the purposes of the argument of whether he's worthy or not - a good season is a good season is a good season). They clearly think he declined in 2012. That said, they didn't place him in the bottom ten for overpaid safeties for 2012! https://www.profootb...value-safeties/ But but but - read this to the end! http://www.footballoutsiders.com/word-muth/2012/word-muth-dont-underset-aldon-smith Really great analysis, and they favorably compare Whitner with the Bills' safety play. Edited March 25, 2013 by dave mcbride
Beerball Posted March 25, 2013 Posted March 25, 2013 The list is long but heres my picks in football, hockey and basketball. I did not include baseball as Buffalo is a farm team. Please check your PM's.
dave mcbride Posted March 25, 2013 Posted March 25, 2013 Also check out the Football Outsiders comparison between Whitner, Byrd, and for the hell of it, Ed Reed (from 2009-2011): http://www.footballoutsiders.com/player/17186/donte-whitner http://www.footballoutsiders.com/player/22167/jairus-byrd http://www.footballoutsiders.com/player/16748/ed-reed
Nukethis Posted March 25, 2013 Author Posted March 25, 2013 I'm going to go kind of off the board and say Todd Collins. The question wasn't who was the biggest bust in buffalo history, it was the most disappointing pick. Collins was picked to be the heir apparent to Jim Kelly, and for all intents and purposes had all of the tools to be a success in the NFL. He was supposed to be the guy to keep the dynasty going or at least to keep us a float. Instead he bombed, and we have been mired in mediocre QB play since(excluding one year of Doug Flutie). Excellent choice and thats exactly how I meant it, most DISAPPOINTING pick. I still think of Ronnie Harmon as one of the more disappointing picks. There were rumors lasting til present day of him throwing the game in the 1986 Rose Bowl where Harmon fumbled 4 times, all in the first half! I could not believe the Bills drafted a rb who performed so poorly in a huge game. Then Harmon repeated his act of coming up small in the Bills playoff loss at Cleveland when he made "the drop" in the endzone with seconds left that would have won the game. Heres a link to the Harmon possibly throwing the Rose Bowl incident. http://iowa.scout.com/2/55311.html for the Bills. I've always wondered about that drop after Harmons 4 fumble Rose Bowl. Heres a link
Orton's Arm Posted March 26, 2013 Posted March 26, 2013 Also check out the Football Outsiders comparison between Whitner, Byrd, and for the hell of it, Ed Reed (from 2009-2011): http://www.footballo...6/donte-whitner http://www.footballo...167/jairus-byrd http://www.footballo...r/16748/ed-reed Something about those stats seems off. When I get a chance, I'll have to dig deeper, to see what it is they're really measuring. > But but but - read this to the end! http://www.footballo...set-aldon-smith > Really great analysis, and they favorably compare Whitner with the Bills' safety play. That is not quite accurate. They favorably compared Whitner's discipline on gap assignments on running plays to that of the Bills' safeties. They did not address the question of whether the Bills or 49ers were receiving better play from their respective safeties.
Orton's Arm Posted March 26, 2013 Posted March 26, 2013 Ok, this is just getting insane now. It has to be personal. I bet you were ready to list Spiller until he showed how great he could be. A case could be made that Bill has a very good point--depending on how you look at the situation. The higher a player is picked, the higher the expectations are, and the more disappointment potential he has. Over the last 20 years, the Bills have had several players chosen in the top-12: Mike Williams Donte Whitner Marshawn Lynch Leodis McKelvin Aaron Maybin CJ Spiller Dareus The last two names on the list don't belong in a discussion of most disappointing player, so let's discuss the others. Lynch was certainly a disappointing player: taken 12th overall, he was traded for a 4th + 6th rounder just a few years later. However, he is currently playing well for Seattle. The presence of guys like Aaron Maybin and Mike Williams remove Lynch from the spot of most disappointing player. After getting rid of Lynch, that list can be winnowed down to just four players: Mike Williams, Aaron Maybin, Leodis McKelvin . . . and Donte Whitner. Those who would argue Maybin's case could point out that he did literally nothing for the Bills. Nothing at all. I would argue that Maybin was significantly below water. By that I mean that he contributed a lot less to the team than a reasonably credible, bargain basement free agent signing would have. For the purposes of this discussion, it may not matter whether a player is just a little below water, or at the bottom of the ocean. Either way, the team got zero value out of drafting the guy; because they could have just signed a bargain basement free agent instead. With the possible exception of the 2004 season, Mike Williams was at or below water level. I'll grant that he had a much better career than Maybin. But that doesn't change the fact that the Bills got little or no value from the Mike Williams pick. Just as the value they received from the McKelvin pick was minimal at best; except for his value as a returner. The fact that McKelvin is valuable as a return man makes him less disappointing than Maybin or Mike Williams. Had the Bills not drafted Whitner, George Wilson would have provided roughly comparable play at the SS position. George Wilson was a relatively inexpensive free agent signing, so the argument could be made that Whitner was not very far above the water line. Because Whitner and Wilson were so similar, the Bills weren't much better off with having drafted Whitner than they would have been had they simply forfeited the 8th overall pick. From a practical standpoint, the picks used on Mike Williams, Aaron Maybin, and Donte Whitner were all wasted. Which of those three picks was the most valuable? On paper, Mike Williams would seem to be the obvious choice; because he was chosen 4th overall. However, 2002 was a very weak draft rich with busts. The 2006 draft was the opposite. Had the Bills stayed put at 8th overall, they could have taken Ngata, Cutler, or other players. Say what you will about Cutler, but he was traded for two first round picks. That's just a little bit more than we got for trading away Lynch! Alternatively, the Bills could have traded down from 8th overall; because there were other teams which really wanted our pick. I personally would much rather have the 8th overall pick in a draft like 2006, than the 4th overall pick in the 2002 draft.
Homey D. Clown Posted March 26, 2013 Posted March 26, 2013 (edited) I still say Aaron Maybin... he made a frickin' rap song before he ever took a snap in a Bills uniform.... how can this not qualify him as the biggest disappointment? THEN he went to the NJ Jest, where he said the coaching was infinitely better, then STILL produced nothing.... Maybin's gotta be top of any list where the combination of "Biggest" and either "bust", "disappointment", or "Douche Bag" is it's name... Edited March 27, 2013 by Homey D. Clown
tennesseeboy Posted March 26, 2013 Posted March 26, 2013 Well, it should be noted that the first player ever drafted by the Buffalo Bills, qb Richie Lucas from Penn State set the tone for busts. He failed at three or four positions.
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