The reason for lack of FA action....

[HOUSE]

I think Ralph is still in Charge....

[T master]

Plus isn't a chunk of Fitzgerald cap hit put on next year too ?

 

[Dibs]

Plus isn't a chunk of Fitzgerald cap hit put on next year too ?

 

I already adjusted the 2014 cap to reflect the 7m Fitz hit.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

I already adjusted the 2014 cap to reflect the 7m Fitz hit.

 

I hope you informed the Bills and the NFL so that they could update their records.

 

[Niagara Bill]

A lot of people are looking at the numerous holes we need to fill......looking at the fact that we still have 18m+ available to spend.....and are apparently very annoyed at the lack of action the Bills have taken so far in FA.

 

As far as I can figure it, the reason for the lack of FA action is due to the concept that the cap has only gone up 2% per year for the last few years.....while player salaries have been rising at a much higher rate. Simply put, if we sign any more FAs this off-season......our 2014 cap situation is looking to be in bad shape.

 

I'll explain....

 

The reason we have 18m+ available is due to the new cap rollover rules. Rollover money from 2012 into 2013 is treated as “adjusted cap”. Any unused “adjusted” money in 2013 cannot be rolled over again into 2014.

 

This is an extremely important point and I think that most people don't understand the ramifications of how it effects future cap planning.

Having all of that rollover money looks exciting, but the reality is it could easily become a cap-trap that destroys a roster.

 

 

Effectively this means that if a team spends above the cap(into their rollover).......they will have no rollover money the following year. If the cap increase for the following season is similar to recent times(2%), this likely will place teams in a tenuous position in regards to the cap for future years as teams will be going from a higher cap situation to a lower cap the following year......and as player contracts are usually structured in a manner where the cap hits increase each year throughout the contract, this would place the team in a very difficult position.

 

 

Looking at the Bills(for example).....

At the moment we have spent 109m(top 51 player caps).....we will get back 4.5m for Fitz contract in a few months. We also have a dead cap number of 6m......and 4m for rookie contracts(I've adjusted this down from 5.5m as several of the rookie contracts will fall outside the top 51 cap hits)............bringing the total spend to.....114.5m.

 

The base cap figure is 123m.

The Bills' rollover amount is 10m.

 

This means that we are 8.5m under the cap.......and 18.5m under the adjusted rollover cap.

 

Ignoring any adjustment for Byrd(leaving his cap hit at 6.9m).....if we don't spend any more money on FAs, we will take a 8.5m rollover into the 2014 season.

 

 

Placing a base 6.9m cap hit for Byrd, our 2014 cap situation is currently 111m. Adding in the 4m for the 2013 rookies.....and 4m for the 2014 rookies, this places our 2014 cap situation at 119m. Assuming there is only a 2% increase in the cap in 2014.....the 2014 cap figure will be 125m.

This would leave us with 6m(plus 8.5m rollover) to re-sign Wood, Chandler, Carrington, Moats, 2nd & 3rd string QB & a raft of other FAs (13 more players).

 

If we chose to sign another 2 FAs this year(total cost 6m/year, assuming the same cap cost through each year)......this would mean we would have ZERO money left(with a 2.5m rollover) to sign all of our own FAs in 2014(19 players).

 

Obviously, if we chose to spend into our current rollover we would need to either re-structure major players, cut more players, or not be able to re-sign anybody who is worth keeping.

 

 

With a new coach, it seems logical to progress through a season for him to see what he has.....and what he can get out of the current players, before mortgaging the future with relatively expensive FAs.

 

 

From what I can tell, it is not just the Bills in this situation. Many teams have already started to cut good players due to future cap concerns this off-season.....and likely this will continue for a few more years.

 

Maybe you don't understand....the reason we are so close to the cap 8.5 based on your numbers which are quite suspect, is that our front office is so bad. Tenn had a bad team and they have the room...

 

We have many holes to fill dispite the record and then started FA by creating another at guard. Our drafting history with this group of FO people shows little chance of filling these, or more than 1 or 2 for sure, so the other 4 or 5 need to be filled by FA.

 

I had no problem with losing Levitre if the money was too high, but we also lost the backup we spent 3 years preparing...and have not fixed it.

Here we go again,,, will we get Richie Incognito for a year again...

Our O line was becoming a strength and we all had prayed for that for many years and condemed many FO personnel for not recognizing the need. No QB can develop without the OLine...

By the way your spacing on your article is very nice teacher.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

I had no problem with losing Levitre if the money was too high, but we also lost the backup we spent 3 years preparing...and have not fixed it.

Here we go again,,, will we get Richie Incognito for a year again...

 

Good post NiBill.

 

I have to mention that Tennessee has proven zero as of this point.

 

Also you're supposed to criticize us for letting Incognito go, not for bringing him back.

[Dibs]

Maybe you don't understand....the reason we are so close to the cap 8.5 based on your numbers which are quite suspect, is that our front office is so bad. Tenn had a bad team and they have the room...

 

We have many holes to fill dispite the record and then started FA by creating another at guard. Our drafting history with this group of FO people shows little chance of filling these, or more than 1 or 2 for sure, so the other 4 or 5 need to be filled by FA.

 

I had no problem with losing Levitre if the money was too high, but we also lost the backup we spent 3 years preparing...and have not fixed it.

Here we go again,,, will we get Richie Incognito for a year again...

Our O line was becoming a strength and we all had prayed for that for many years and condemed many FO personnel for not recognizing the need. No QB can develop without the OLine...

By the way your spacing on your article is very nice teacher.

 

I really didn't expect an aggressive attack over this......nor see the need for one. You act as if I have personally attacked something that you have written....when in fact I don't disagree at all that the handling of players/salaries by the Bills FO has been very poor.

 

Apart from a couple of reasonable assumptions(Byrd 2014 cap hit & the 2014 cap increase)......and my second last paragraph.....I made no reference nor inference to the abilities(or lack there of) of the Bills' FO in regards to their culpability in the current cap situation. My interest was to show people exactly where we stood in terms of the cap for the next 2 years......and they could freely draw their own conclusions as to how we can circumvent the problem as well as to how much blame should be placed upon the FO.

 

Suspect information? You really have a nasty bee in your bonnet don't you?

Information mainly gathered from:

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap-hit/

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap-hit/2014/

 

 

In regards to the Titans.....

They have 6.8m left to spend......of which they need to sign their rookies.

Their 2014 cap is currently sitting at 119.8m.....plus 4m for their 2013 rookies....plus 4m for their 2014 rookies = 127.8m

If the cap only rises by the recently standard 2%, the Titans are already looking to be over the cap in 2014.

They will also have 5 starters hit FA in 2014(OT Stewart, S Pollard, WR Britt, C Velasco, CB Verner).....plus another 14 players including 4 backup OLmen.

 

If I were a Titans fan, I would be praying that they get a lot of good players in the next two drafts.

[Niagara Bill]

I really didn't expect an aggressive attack over this......nor see the need for one. You act as if I have personally attacked something that you have written....when in fact I don't disagree at all that the handling of players/salaries by the Bills FO has been very poor.

 

Apart from a couple of reasonable assumptions(Byrd 2014 cap hit & the 2014 cap increase)......and my second last paragraph.....I made no reference nor inference to the abilities(or lack there of) of the Bills' FO in regards to their culpability in the current cap situation. My interest was to show people exactly where we stood in terms of the cap for the next 2 years......and they could freely draw their own conclusions as to how we can circumvent the problem as well as to how much blame should be placed upon the FO.

 

Suspect information? You really have a nasty bee in your bonnet don't you?

Information mainly gathered from:

http://www.spotrac.c...-bills/cap-hit/

http://www.spotrac.c...s/cap-hit/2014/

 

 

In regards to the Titans.....

They have 6.8m left to spend......of which they need to sign their rookies.

Their 2014 cap is currently sitting at 119.8m.....plus 4m for their 2013 rookies....plus 4m for their 2014 rookies = 127.8m

If the cap only rises by the recently standard 2%, the Titans are already looking to be over the cap in 2014.

They will also have 5 starters hit FA in 2014(OT Stewart, S Pollard, WR Britt, C Velasco, CB Verner).....plus another 14 players including 4 backup OLmen.

 

If I were a Titans fan, I would be praying that they get a lot of good players in the next two drafts.

Hey you were the guy publicly critizing some elses manner of posting and spacing (not my post) after you ripped his or her for their opinion on the lack of Bills action.

Other people's opinion are as valuable as yours...sometimes you forget that "Mr. Kotter"

[BillsfanAlberta]

I think I am one of the few that is quite content that so far there has not been any big FA signing's by the Bills

We vastly over paid for Mario last year, b4 and supermario fans jump on my head for saying that, I do like the guy.Most of the teams that have signed players have vastly overpaid for them. Also the Bills have tried to sign a few guys but the picked other teams instead, most players do not want to go to a team that has such a long playoff drought. I also think it's still quite early to panic like some people have it's only April, heck it's not even April quite yet.

[BillsfanAlberta]

I live in a city where the Hockey team is awful and has been for years, the have a rich history of winning championships but because they are terrible noone wants to sign here, it is cold, 8 months of the year. We get awesome winter temps of -35 -40 quite often.. the times they have lured the big Free agent here it has been because they have vastly overpaid for one.

 

This FA season there have been a few quotes by players that the Bills did offer them a contract they just picked the other team, due to $$$ location etc.. most players most likely don't want to play for a losing team, we will have to build through the draft and try to lure lower FA till fill the holes. This situation sucks but it is the one the Bills are in. If the Bills can somehow mange to turn this around for a couple seasons players will want to play here again, or at least we will be able to compete and not vastly overpay to get players to play here. In the NHL the Calgary flames were just as bad as the Edmonton Oilers noone wanted to play there, they were terrible. They made it to the finals one year the playoffs the next year, and now the get some good FA to come there...

 

I think because Buffalo is cold, hey it's not NY, It's not Florida or Cali plus combined with the losing seasons and you have a place noone really wants to go..

Before people go off and think I don't like the city of Buffalo, as I have seen people get quite personal on here, my Grandfather Aunt MOM and relatives were all born right outside Buffalo in cherry creek ny

I love the area and I love my Bills, the best time of my life were watching or going to Bills games with my grandfather.

[machine gun kelly]

Dibs- I wish more people could post this type of factual information, and appreciate having a better understanding of the cap situation. If you listen to guys like Polian and Kirwan, they'll repeatedly say free agency is very tricky and you almost always over pay in the first two weeks for value. Just because someone was good in another system, does not necessarily mean it transfer in the new team.

 

I like the idea of securing a couple of role players if we can afford it and maintain our talent. The draft is so much cheaper now due to the rookie salary cap situation.

 

I was disappointed we lost Rinehart. As far as the maroon who encouraged us to lose Kyle Williams (our best defensive lineman), I don't understand that at all.

 

Let's pray we hit on at least four guys in this draft, and get Mario to restructure next year as we can't afford to lose this upcoming free agents.

[Nanker]

Wow. So except for the rookies and UFAs, the roster is set.

That's not too good.

[Happy Days Lois & Clark]

My guess is to much dead money. Cash to the cap is too high.

[Dibs]

Hey you were the guy publicly critizing some elses manner of posting and spacing (not my post) after you ripped his or her for their opinion on the lack of Bills action.

Other people's opinion are as valuable as yours...sometimes you forget that "Mr. Kotter"

 

I'm assuming that you have me confused with somebody else.

 

Though I will gladly argue with people about differing views, I try my best(and usually succeed) on being polite and try to stay focused on the facts/issues. I tend to think I am one of the more considerate posters here when it comes to other peoples opinions. I am happy to rip apart the logic of someone's opinion......but I very, very rarely rip apart a poster for having their opinions......and on the odd occasion where I let myself down and am rude to somebody, I usually follow up with an apology for my actions.

 

I recently offered advice to a new poster in this thread....

http://forums.twobil...r-qb-this-year/

......in regards to their lack of spacing. If you read what I wrote you will see that I was being very polite and was trying to help the OP. Others followed my post with similar, yet ruder and blunter thoughts. I never did respond to his actual thoughts though.

 

 

Again.....I'm thinking that you must have me confused with somebody else......either that or you don't like what I generally post and imagine that I am attacking people when in fact am simply refuting their arguments.

Edited March 24, 2013 by Dibs

[Bill from NYC]

I understood what you were meaning.....but it will in fact screw with the 2014 cap figure. Even if you sign a couple of players to 1 year contracts(so they have no immediate effect on the 2014 cap), it will cut down the rollover amount that we can take into next year......and it looks as though we will be needing some rollover money in order to sign Wood etc.

 

Nice thread.

 

My only issue is that Levitre is a better blocker than Wood, who I hope can make it out of training camp without a major injury. You just shouldn't give up your best blocker when you have the cap room to keep him. Do you think that a well run franchise would do this?

[Dibs]

Nice thread.

 

My only issue is that Levitre is a better blocker than Wood, who I hope can make it out of training camp without a major injury. You just shouldn't give up your best blocker when you have the cap room to keep him. Do you think that a well run franchise would do this?

 

You've put me in a bit of a quandary there Bill. The general consensus(on TSW) is that Wood is the better OLman.....but is more injury prone. You however are the guy I place the most stock in their opinion on OLmen.....yet believe that Levitre is the better player.

(I personally have no ability in being able to judge OLmen.)

 

I think irrelevant to whom is the better player, the decision to not re-sign Levitre was a wise move purely based upon our cap situation. Signing him to 8m/year would have meant that we would likely hit 2014 being already over the cap.

 

That being said, I personally think that a well run franchise wouldn't have put us in this position in the first place.

 

I am of the opinion(based upon quotes by Bills FO & their 2011/2012 actions) that prior to the 2012 season, the powers that be at OBD felt that we were very close to making a run. They therefore spent up big to put together the final pieces of the puzzle(as they saw it). As we know, those assumptions by GM/HC were totally off the mark. Fitzpatrick was not the QB they hoped for......Wanny was a disaster.....and even if their big defensive signings were healthy, it was clear that a large portion of the roster was sub-par.

 

Not re-signing Levitre is the cost of those mistakes IMO.......and in terms of "well run franchise".....I personally think Nix should have been fired for being so far off the mark in regards to where he thought we were(heading into 2012).

 

An interesting side note......this season we will be spending over 32m of the 123m cap(26%) on our DL......and that is after the retirement of Kelsay.

[Bill from NYC]

You've put me in a bit of a quandary there Bill. The general consensus(on TSW) is that Wood is the better OLman.....but is more injury prone. You however are the guy I place the most stock in their opinion on OLmen.....yet believe that Levitre is the better player.

(I personally have no ability in being able to judge OLmen.)

 

I think irrelevant to whom is the better player, the decision to not re-sign Levitre was a wise move purely based upon our cap situation. Signing him to 8m/year would have meant that we would likely hit 2014 being already over the cap.

 

That being said, I personally think that a well run franchise wouldn't have put us in this position in the first place.

 

I am of the opinion(based upon quotes by Bills FO & their 2011/2012 actions) that prior to the 2012 season, the powers that be at OBD felt that we were very close to making a run. They therefore spent up big to put together the final pieces of the puzzle(as they saw it). As we know, those assumptions by GM/HC were totally off the mark. Fitzpatrick was not the QB they hoped for......Wanny was a disaster.....and even if their big defensive signings were healthy, it was clear that a large portion of the roster was sub-par.

 

Not re-signing Levitre is the cost of those mistakes IMO.......and in terms of "well run franchise".....I personally think Nix should have been fired for being so far off the mark in regards to where he thought we were(heading into 2012).

 

An interesting side note......this season we will be spending over 32m of the 123m cap(26%) on our DL......and that is after the retirement of Kelsay.

 

26% does seem high. Wasn't Dareus signed under the new CBA where draft picks are WAY less costly? Troup and Carington cost pennies. But I for one am glad that they signed Mario.

 

As for Levitre, his contract, while admittedly big for a guard, only contains 10.5 million in guarnteed money, or so it would seem to me....

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/tennessee-titans/andy-levitre/

This really isn't a lot, and would not be such a huge hit unless of course he was to be cut, making the bonus accelerate. But he is a very good player and he's in his prime. Wood has been hurt so many times that imo it is unreasonable to think that he will remain healthy for any length of time. I probably won't be so angry if they let him play out his option.

 

Now, a hole was created. How does it get fixed? Yes, we got Levitre in round 2 but remember, they traded up for him. I don't recall what the other pick was. Trust me, they are NOT going to draft Warmack. They need a QB and WR to compete, and of course sell tickets. My prediction is that they will take Nassib, the local kid, to reunite with Marrone, the local coach. Throw in a wideout, and there are your first 2 rounds. If they can find a top guard in round 3 or 4, God bless them but remember, they desperately need linebackers and a tight end (hopefully Michael Williams).

 

I just cannot understand how a team in this position would let one of their best players, as well as his backup walk.

[first_and_ten]

You've put me in a bit of a quandary there Bill. The general consensus(on TSW) is that Wood is the better OLman.....but is more injury prone. You however are the guy I place the most stock in their opinion on OLmen.....yet believe that Levitre is the better player.

(I personally have no ability in being able to judge OLmen.)

 

I think irrelevant to whom is the better player, the decision to not re-sign Levitre was a wise move purely based upon our cap situation. Signing him to 8m/year would have meant that we would likely hit 2014 being already over the cap.

 

That being said, I personally think that a well run franchise wouldn't have put us in this position in the first place.

 

I am of the opinion(based upon quotes by Bills FO & their 2011/2012 actions) that prior to the 2012 season, the powers that be at OBD felt that we were very close to making a run. They therefore spent up big to put together the final pieces of the puzzle(as they saw it). As we know, those assumptions by GM/HC were totally off the mark. Fitzpatrick was not the QB they hoped for......Wanny was a disaster.....and even if their big defensive signings were healthy, it was clear that a large portion of the roster was sub-par.

 

Not re-signing Levitre is the cost of those mistakes IMO.......and in terms of "well run franchise".....I personally think Nix should have been fired for being so far off the mark in regards to where he thought we were(heading into 2012).

 

An interesting side note......this season we will be spending over 32m of the 123m cap(26%) on our DL......and that is after the retirement of Kelsay.

 

Dibs, from what I have read from you, it would seem that the Bills organization is completely incompetant. Nix should have been gone yesterday and this team need s a new set of eyes.It;s painfully obvious how important it is for an organization to be able to know the salary cap inside and out and to be able to assess talent very accurately and value. Vision , seeing past the current season is very important also. I think Buffalo cleary fails in these areas. Thanks for the post, it was informative.

[Dibs]

26% does seem high. Wasn't Dareus signed under the new CBA where draft picks are WAY less costly? Troup and Carington cost pennies. But I for one am glad that they signed Mario.

 

As for Levitre, his contract, while admittedly big for a guard, only contains 10.5 million in guarnteed money, or so it would seem to me....

http://www.spotrac.c...s/andy-levitre/

This really isn't a lot, and would not be such a huge hit unless of course he was to be cut, making the bonus accelerate. But he is a very good player and he's in his prime. Wood has been hurt so many times that imo it is unreasonable to think that he will remain healthy for any length of time. I probably won't be so angry if they let him play out his option.

 

Now, a hole was created. How does it get fixed? Yes, we got Levitre in round 2 but remember, they traded up for him. I don't recall what the other pick was. Trust me, they are NOT going to draft Warmack. They need a QB and WR to compete, and of course sell tickets. My prediction is that they will take Nassib, the local kid, to reunite with Marrone, the local coach. Throw in a wideout, and there are your first 2 rounds. If they can find a top guard in round 3 or 4, God bless them but remember, they desperately need linebackers and a tight end (hopefully Michael Williams).

 

Yes, Darius was under the new rookie scale......but that means he earns 5.1m/year rather than 12.7m/year as the #3 DT pick McCoy from the previous year got.

 

It's not so much the guaranteed money, rather the cap hit he would garner in 2014 that would really hurt us.

The guaranteed money is only really relevant if you are wanting to cut a player early in his contract. A low guaranteed amount makes that easier.....but if we signed Levitre, I'm doubting that we would be wanting to cut him in the first 3 years of the contract.

 

The Titans structured their deal with Levitre to have a 4.6m cap hit in 2013....and an 8.6m hit in 2014-2017.

Even if we had front loaded his cap hit for this season(2013), we would have minimally had to have a 4-5m hit in 2014. As I showed above, at this point we only have 6m free under a 125m 2014 cap.

 

 

I totally agree with the concern of how to fill the hole created. We might get lucky.....and we have had recent success finding decent OLmen.....but I don't believe as others here do in that it is easy to find a replacement & that OGs are a dime a dozen.

 

 

I just cannot understand how a team in this position would let one of their best players, as well as his backup walk.

 

Like I said.....I totally understand how they could let Levitre walk......but as for his backup walking as well.....

Unless they feel that they have Levitre's replacement already on the roster(or lined up Brandon Moore?).....this is a head scratcher for me.

 

Dibs, from what I have read from you, it would seem that the Bills organization is completely incompetant. Nix should have been gone yesterday and this team need s a new set of eyes.It;s painfully obvious how important it is for an organization to be able to know the salary cap inside and out and to be able to assess talent very accurately and value. Vision , seeing past the current season is very important also. I think Buffalo cleary fails in these areas. Thanks for the post, it was informative.

 

Being fair.....there were a lot of teams(all of them?) that seem to have been caught out by the totally unexpected reduction in the salary cap a few years back & then the minimal increases for the last few years. In my mind, it was the inability to assess the talent that seems to have led to the shaky ground we are on at the moment.

Edited March 24, 2013 by Dibs

[dave mcbride]

Good thread. One thing you don't discuss, though, is restructuring, particularly for guys who would make less if they refused and were cut next offseason. I'm thinking of Anderson, Fred Jackson, Mario Williams, and even Stevie Johnson. I'm not thinking of a pay cut per se, but a reshuffling of the salary structure to improve the cap situation. It happens all the time.

Edited March 24, 2013 by dave mcbride