NoSaint Posted March 22, 2013 Posted March 22, 2013 According to the cap chart the Bills have only $15,548,229. Of that about 6 million will be needed to sign our drafted rookies. Out of that we need to replace Lev and fill some of the other holes we have. We only have 6 draft picks, and realistically only 3 of those picks will probably be starters. We have a lot of holes to fill with that $10 million dollars. I don't consider that very much cap space. We are going to need more cap room or just end up with dumpster diving scraps again. Smith is about the only one on the team left with any cap space who does not contribute any where near the value of his cap space without a huge dead cap hit (Like Anderson). In a perfect world i would keep him, but in the tough spot we are in I see little choice but to let him go if we can find an upgrade at WR in FA. 1) as others have asked, lets say who instead of just keeping with the hypothetical 2) 10m in cap space can allow up to 50m in actual spending based on how you structure the contracts. Miami only ate up like 15m in cap this year with their signings.
uncle flap Posted March 23, 2013 Posted March 23, 2013 According to the cap chart the Bills have only $15,548,229. Of that about 6 million will be needed to sign our drafted rookies. Out of that we need to replace Lev and fill some of the other holes we have. We only have 6 draft picks, and realistically only 3 of those picks will probably be starters. We have a lot of holes to fill with that $10 million dollars. I don't consider that very much cap space. We are going to need more cap room or just end up with dumpster diving scraps again. Smith is about the only one on the team left with any cap space who does not contribute any where near the value of his cap space without a huge dead cap hit (Like Anderson). In a perfect world i would keep him, but in the tough spot we are in I see little choice but to let him go if we can find an upgrade at WR in FA. That chart hasn't been updated to reflect Fitz's nearly 7 mil rollover to next year. So it's more like $23 mil. Or $18 mil if you include the rookies that'll have to be signed. Also, Byrd hasn't signed his tender. That could mean they are negotiating a long term deal and his cap hit could change too. Not to pile on, but I'm also curious who is out there (WR and otherwise), that Brad Smith's cap hit is preventing them from signing. Granted we don't know who would be the best fits in the coach's/management's eyes, but if you were building the team - How would you spend the money? And for fun's sake, go ahead and use the $4M you save from cutting Brad Smith. You've got $22 million to play with, have at it!
San Jose Bills Fan Posted March 23, 2013 Posted March 23, 2013 The other point which is consistently overlooked in our salary cap discussions is that teams have to carry a salary cap buffer through the season because due to injuries, all teams end up signing guys that weren't on the opening day roster. Not sure how much teams budget for in-season injury replacements but it's gotta be several million dollars.
simpleman Posted March 23, 2013 Author Posted March 23, 2013 What FA WR is available that is better than Smith? Laurent Robinson, WR, Jaguars. Age: 28, if signed to an incentive rich contract due to injury history would be an upgrade. Not saying they are better, but they are probably at least equal to him and could be signed for less money. Granted Nix has fiddled away while all the good ones have signed, but there are still plenty of 2nd tier guys who are at least as good a WR as Smith and we could probably get at least two of them who are at least as good as him for a total equal to his cost alone. For instance: Domenik Hixon, WR, Giants. Age: 28. Ramses Barden, WR, Giants. Age: 27. Mohamed Massaquoi, WR, Browns. Age: 26
NoSaint Posted March 23, 2013 Posted March 23, 2013 The other point which is consistently overlooked in our salary cap discussions is that teams have to carry a salary cap buffer through the season because due to injuries, all teams end up signing guys that weren't on the opening day roster. Not sure how much teams budget for in-season injury replacements but it's gotta be several million dollars. Don't you only count the top 50 something contracts? Ie street free agents for 8-10 games rarely show up in the cap
San Jose Bills Fan Posted March 23, 2013 Posted March 23, 2013 Laurent Robinson, WR, Jaguars. Age: 28, if signed to an incentive rich contract due to injury history would be an upgrade. Not saying they are better, but they are probably at least equal to him and could be signed for less money. Granted Nix has fiddled away while all the good ones have signed, but there are still plenty of 2nd tier guys who are at least as good a WR as Smith and we could probably get at least two of them who are at least as good as him for a total equal to his cost alone. For instance: Domenik Hixon, WR, Giants. Age: 28. Ramses Barden, WR, Giants. Age: 27. Mohamed Massaquoi, WR, Browns. Age: 26 Good job. Like you said, low cost and good potential. Don't you only count the top 50 something contracts? Ie street free agents for 8-10 games rarely show up in the cap I didn't know that. That would certainly explain why no one has talked about reserving cap space for in-season injuries.
uncle flap Posted March 23, 2013 Posted March 23, 2013 (edited) The other point which is consistently overlooked in our salary cap discussions is that teams have to carry a salary cap buffer through the season because due to injuries, all teams end up signing guys that weren't on the opening day roster. Not sure how much teams budget for in-season injury replacements but it's gotta be several million dollars. I think it only the top 51 contracts count, but we should also consider that any unused cap space* will roll over to next year. So, they certainly might be looking at who might be available next year and who they want to re-sign. cough Eric Wood cough *Quote Can a team carry excess/unused cap space into the next year? Yes. Unused cap space from a team’s previous year cap can be added to the following year. The team must notify the league of their intent to rollover cap money at least 14 days prior to the start of the next season’s league year. Does it continue to rollover like cellphone minutes? No. Rollover money from 2012 into 2013 is treated as “adjusted cap”. Any unused “adjusted” money in 2013 cannot be rolled over again into 2014. http://www.spotrac.c...-next-year-295/ Laurent Robinson, WR, Jaguars. Age: 28, if signed to an incentive rich contract due to injury history would be an upgrade. Not saying they are better, but they are probably at least equal to him and could be signed for less money. Granted Nix has fiddled away while all the good ones have signed, but there are still plenty of 2nd tier guys who are at least as good a WR as Smith and we could probably get at least two of them who are at least as good as him for a total equal to his cost alone. For instance: Domenik Hixon, WR, Giants. Age: 28. Ramses Barden, WR, Giants. Age: 27. Mohamed Massaquoi, WR, Browns. Age: 26 All/any of those guys could certainly bolster the WR corps, but none of them are going to break the bank. So Brad Smith's hit is pretty inconsequential. Edited March 23, 2013 by uncle flap
NoSaint Posted March 23, 2013 Posted March 23, 2013 Good job. Like you said, low cost and good potential. I didn't know that. That would certainly explain why no one has talked about reserving cap space for in-season injuries. Just checked - top 51 it looks like http://www.askthecommish.com/SalaryCap/faq.aspx
KOKBILLS Posted March 23, 2013 Posted March 23, 2013 I have to say I'm pretty shocked The Bills have not taken a flyer on one of these younger WR's available in Free Agency...I can't imagine any of the ones left over costing much...And this roster is so WR deficient right now it's scary... My preference would be Barden who bring a physical package you just can't find normally...Nix has been talking about a big, tall, WR for some time now...Why zero interest in a guy one of the best Scouting Depts in the NFL Drafted 4 years ago when it's basically going to cost next-to-nothing? What's the risk exactly?
uncle flap Posted March 23, 2013 Posted March 23, 2013 Ah- too slow w my reply! But back to those WRs, they are all cheap and if your preference is to have them instead of Brad Smith, I can't argue with your opinion. My point is that we can all find a ton of cheap guys to fill the roster holes, and I think it's understood that while the Bills aren't working with the $50 mil Cleveland started with, they still have adequate space to sign plenty of players. I guess my criticism of the OP is that using Brad Smith's cap hit as a justification to cut him is somewhat misguided. They've got enough cap space either way. So like I said, if someone wants to cut Brad Smith because they think he sucks, that's fine. I just don't think his cap hit has anything to do with it. I'd keep Brad Smith and add a WR (or two, if they don't draft one). I like any of the guys the OP listed, and I'd also take a look at DHB, Chaz Schilens, and Brandon Tate. Man, I'm slippin today. I forgot to add this to my above post re: rolling over cap space: Can a team carry excess/unused cap space into the next year?Yes. Unused cap space from a team’s previous year cap can be added to the following year. The team must notify the league of their intent to rollover cap money at least 14 days prior to the start of the next season’s league year. Does it continue to rollover like cellphone minutes? No. Rollover money from 2012 into 2013 is treated as “adjusted cap”. Any unused “adjusted” money in 2013 cannot be rolled over again into 2014. http://www.spotrac.com/terms/nfl/can-a-team-carry-excessunused-cap-space-into-the-next-year-295/
NoSaint Posted March 23, 2013 Posted March 23, 2013 I have to say I'm pretty shocked The Bills have not taken a flyer on one of these younger WR's available in Free Agency...I can't imagine any of the ones left over costing much...And this roster is so WR deficient right now it's scary... My preference would be Barden who bring a physical package you just can't find normally...Nix has been talking about a big, tall, WR for some time now...Why zero interest in a guy one of the best Scouting Depts in the NFL Drafted 4 years ago when it's basically going to cost next-to-nothing? What's the risk exactly? No one else has signed him either. He may be slowly coming to terms with what he thought he was worth vs what even his highest bidder has offered. He also may have teams or situations he is targeting. I'm still pointing at Lawson as proof that we can't assume no tweets means no plan/action behind the scenes. We will see. I get the frustration, we will find out if its warranted.
KOKBILLS Posted March 23, 2013 Posted March 23, 2013 (edited) I'd keep Brad Smith and add a WR (or two, if they don't draft one). Agreed...Smith may be a bit overpaid for what he brings...He's certainly not a conventional WR...But he's super versatile, plays a ton of Special Teams, and he can be a serious threat on KR's...To me at least, the last thing The Bills need at this point is to get rid of guy like Smith...I look at it this way...As far as sudden points probability on this Roster Smith is behind CJ, Stevie, and McLovin currently (am I missing someone? And don't say TJ Graham... )...Why lose that guy because of a couple million in Cap space on a Team desperate for talent?...Makes no sense to me... But this is The Bills we're talking about...so... No one else has signed him either. He may be slowly coming to terms with what he thought he was worth vs what even his highest bidder has offered. He also may have teams or situations he is targeting. I'm still pointing at Lawson as proof that we can't assume no tweets means no plan/action behind the scenes. We will see. I get the frustration, we will find out if its warranted. It seems like a lot of these UFA's are sitting out there being a taught valuable lessons about their Market Value right about now...Does it not? Edited March 23, 2013 by KOKBILLS
DrDawkinstein Posted March 23, 2013 Posted March 23, 2013 Laurent Robinson, WR, Jaguars. Age: 28, if signed to an incentive rich contract due to injury history would be an upgrade. Not saying they are better, but they are probably at least equal to him and could be signed for less money. Granted Nix has fiddled away while all the good ones have signed, but there are still plenty of 2nd tier guys who are at least as good a WR as Smith and we could probably get at least two of them who are at least as good as him for a total equal to his cost alone. For instance: Domenik Hixon, WR, Giants. Age: 28. Ramses Barden, WR, Giants. Age: 27. Mohamed Massaquoi, WR, Browns. Age: 26 Ah, awesome. Good research. I like some of those guys for sure. I also think we could sign 1, if not 2, and not need to free up any additional cap space. But I can agree that, for how Smith has been under-utilized, Id rather have 2 of those guys than Smith if it came down to it.
boyst Posted March 23, 2013 Posted March 23, 2013 Ah, awesome. Good research. I like some of those guys for sure. I also think we could sign 1, if not 2, and not need to free up any additional cap space. But I can agree that, for how Smith has been under-utilized, Id rather have 2 of those guys than Smith if it came down to it. That is just it, we could get 1 or two of those guys and have Smith. We do not need a pop gun offense, we do not need the wildcat, or trick plays. We can simply put Brad Smith in the backfield and use him as an option. He might not be Kaep but he can do things that most other QB's cannot. I see no reason in releasing a player with a new regime with so much versatility and no issues with over spending.
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted March 23, 2013 Posted March 23, 2013 What position does he play? I know Chan outsmarted the league when he kept him as the third qb but played him at wr, but just don't see it. I mean he is absolutely the kind of guy you want on the roster as the reliable gadget play guy in the playoffs, but this team is so far from there.
KOKBILLS Posted March 23, 2013 Posted March 23, 2013 (edited) That is just it, we could get 1 or two of those guys and have Smith. Exactly...At least it would seem that way... Plus...How many Teams can say their #2 WR position is basically a wide-open competition? I'm guessing The Bills could get two of these remaining WR's for about 3 million in 2013...Or maybe less...Could it be that they are just waiting for one, or two, of these young WR's with something to prove to beg for a shot? It's weird... Edited March 23, 2013 by KOKBILLS
boyst Posted March 23, 2013 Posted March 23, 2013 Exactly...At least it would seem that way... Plus...How many Teams can say their #2 WR position is basically a wide-open competition? I'm guessing The Bills could get two of these remaining WR's for about 3 million in 2013...Or maybe less...Could it be that they are just waiting for one, or two, of these young WR's with something to prove to beg for a shot? It's weird... One year contracts to all three. See them see who wants it more, see who wants the baby in 2014.
Trader Posted March 23, 2013 Posted March 23, 2013 Don't hold your breath waiting for the Bills to sign a Free agent wide receiver worth the money. It's not going to happen. Top level Free Agent wide receivers go to teams who are 1. contenders, 2. have QB's who can actually get them the ball. The Bills are neither. In the rare case that a big name FA wr would come here it would be because no one else wants him or the Bills were willing to grossly over pay him. - Example the Owens case. The last time I can remember the Bills getting a free agent WR who was worth anything was James Lofton, that was when we had a future HOF QB.
KOKBILLS Posted March 23, 2013 Posted March 23, 2013 Don't hold your breath waiting for the Bills to sign a Free agent wide receiver worth the money. It's not going to happen. Top level Free Agent wide receivers go to teams who are 1. contenders, 2. have QB's who can actually get them the ball. The Bills are neither. In the rare case that a big name FA wr would come here it would be because no one else wants him or the Bills were willing to grossly over pay him. - Example the Owens case. The last time I can remember the Bills getting a free agent WR who was worth anything was James Lofton, that was when we had a future HOF QB. Agreed... But who's talking about big name UFA WR's? They're all gone anyway...
Dibs Posted March 23, 2013 Posted March 23, 2013 (edited) I think it only the top 51 contracts count, but we should also consider that any unused cap space* will roll over to next year. So, they certainly might be looking at who might be available next year and who they want to re-sign. cough Eric Wood cough *Quote Can a team carry excess/unused cap space into the next year? Yes. Unused cap space from a team’s previous year cap can be added to the following year. The team must notify the league of their intent to rollover cap money at least 14 days prior to the start of the next season’s league year. Does it continue to rollover like cellphone minutes? No. Rollover money from 2012 into 2013 is treated as “adjusted cap”. Any unused “adjusted” money in 2013 cannot be rolled over again into 2014. http://www.spotrac.c...-next-year-295/ All/any of those guys could certainly bolster the WR corps, but none of them are going to break the bank. So Brad Smith's hit is pretty inconsequential. This is an extremely important point and I think that most people don't understand the ramifications of how it effects future cap planning. Having all of that rollover money looks exciting, but the reality is it could easily become a cap-trap that destroys a roster. Effectively this means that if a team spends above the cap(into their rollover).......they will have no rollover money the following year. If the cap increase for the following season is similar to recent times(2%), this likely will place teams in a tenuous position in regards to the cap for future years as teams will be going from a higher cap situation to a lower cap the following year......and as player contracts are usually structured in a manner where the cap hits increase each year throughout the contract, this would place the team in a very difficult position. Looking at the Bills(for example)..... At the moment we have spent 109m(top 51).....which we will get back 4.5m for Fitz contract in a few months. We also have a dead cap number of 6m......and 5.5m for rookie contracts............bringing the total spend to.....116m. The base cap figure is 123m. The Bills' rollover amount is 10m. This means that we are 7m under the cap.......and 17m under the adjusted rollover cap. Ignoring any adjustment for Byrd(leaving his cap hit at 6.9m).....if we don't spend any more money on FAs, we will take a 7m rollover into the 2014 season. Placing a base 6.9m cap hit for Byrd, our 2014 cap situation is currently 111m. Assuming there is only a 2% increase in the cap in 2014.....the 2014 cap figure will be 125m. This would leave us with 14m(plus 7m rollover) to re-sign Wood, Chandler, Carrington, Moats, 2nd & 3rd string QB & a raft of other FAs (13 more players). If we chose to sign another 2 FAs this year(total cost 7m/year, same through each year)......this would mean we would only have 7m(with no rollover) to sign all of our own FAs in 2014. Obviously, if we chose to spend into our current rollover we would need to either re-structure major players, cut more players, or not be able to re-sign anybody who is worth keeping. With a new coach, it seems logical to progress through a season for him to see what he has.....and what he can get out of the current players, before mortgaging the future with relatively expensive FAs. EDIT: Those 2014 numbers didn't include the 2013 rookie class.....likely will be a solid 4m higher 2014 cap number because of it......plus the need to sign the 2014 rookies. Edited March 23, 2013 by Dibs
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