Ryan Fitzpatrick - QB - Tennessee Titans

[Leelee Phoenix]

Good spot for Fitz. Odds are high he'll be starting at some point next year with Locker coming off shoulder surgery, and being generally terrible thus far for the Titans. Best of luck to him.

[FireChan]

Are you really that blind that you do not see the huge differences between the 2? If in your mind Fitzpatrick=Brees then there is no help for you. No rational argument will sway your opinion, so there is no sense trying.

 

When I watch football games involving NO I always think to myself..."that Brees guy reminds me of Ryan Fitzpatrick."

 

He was a lower tier mediocre QB here. He's gone. He's a backup (the position he's best suited for). He isn't Drew Brees. Get over it.

Care to wager on Fitz becoming top 5 in anything besides eating big steaks and turnovers? The guy sucked. Period. Why the man-crush?

He's pulling that same old crap of attempting to make fitz look good by trying to make others look bad

 

Right, so we're having a little trouble following the conversation, I get that. Especially with my "man-crush" reputation. Brees and RF had very comparable stats when Brees was on the Chargers. Brees is a superstar now, but he wasn't playing like a superstar then, he was putting up "mediocre" RF numbers. The Chargers let him go. They gave him a no-confidence contract opportunity.

 

The point I was refuting was that GM's are not infallible. I may have insinuated RF may turn out like Brees but that wasn't the main point. The main point was that I bet the Chargers' would have kept Brees after seeing what he was capable of. Thus, he made a mistake by letting him go. So, by saying, "All the GM's passed on him, he must really really suck, I'm automatically right" is stupid, because GM's get things wrong all the time. This was a clear cut example of "getting it wrong."

 

Please follow the conversation next time.

 

 

You are 100% correct. The last year on their respective teams they had somewhat similar stats(though Brees was 10th in the league & Fitz was 17th).

You seem happy to ignore the concept that Brees was an all-pro in his 2nd last year with the Chargers(3rd in league).....while Fitz was 22nd.

 

You also seem ignorant to the fact that stats do not fully reflect the ability of a QB. Elway made the pro-bowl and dragged his team to the SB with QBRs of 79.0, 83.4 & 73.7.

 

What is your actual point on trying to compare Brees to Fitzpatrick?

 

 

 

 

You asked people to explain why the Chargers let Brees go......so I pasted the pertinent information from wiki. Did you not bother to read it?

It clearly shows that Brees was considered a first class QB at the time.....that the Chargers had unfortunately invested large money into Rivers.....and that Brees' future was clouded by injury concerns.

 

Here it is again(with a little more)....the relevant information is in red. I typically have plenty of free time.....just let me know what parts you don't understand.

 

"Brees became a free agent after the season(2004 All-Pro) and was not expected to return to San Diego, which had already committed a large sum of money to Rivers. The team eventually designated Brees a franchise player, giving him a one-year contract that quadrupled his pay to $8 million for 2005. Under the terms of the franchise player contract, Brees was eligible to be traded or sign with another team, but the Chargers would receive two future first round draft choices in return. He was not traded and continued as starting quarterback for the remainder of the 2005 season.^[17]

Brees continued his productive play in 2005, as he posted a career high in passing yards with 3,576. Brees also posted an 89.2 rating, 10th best in the NFL. However, in the last game of the 2005 season against the Denver Broncos, Brees tore his labrum......Brees underwent arthroscopic surgery, .....to repair the torn labrum in his right (throwing) shoulder on January 5, 2006. Subsequent reports mentioned additional rotator cuff damage and he also was treated by Dr. Saby Szajowitz to recover and regain muscle movement. He was selected as first alternate to the AFC Pro Bowl team for the 2005 season. He would have played in his second consecutive Pro Bowl due to the injury to starter Carson Palmer, but his own injury dictated that the AFC Pro Bowl roster would have to be filled by second alternate Jake Plummer.^{[citation needed]}

After the season, the Chargers offered Brees a 5-year, $50 million contract that paid $2 million in base salary the first year and the rest heavily based on performance incentives. Brees evaluated the incentive-based offer as a sign of no confidence by the Chargers and promptly demanded the salary a top 5 "franchise" quarterback would receive."

 

"After the Chargers refused to increase their offer, Brees met with other teams. The New Orleans Saints and the Miami Dolphins were interested. New Orleans made an offer that included $10 million in guaranteed money the first year and a $12 million option the second year. Miami was unsure if Brees' shoulder was completely healed and doctors suggested the team not sign him because of the injury.^[18] The Dolphins ended negotiations and traded for Minnesota Vikings QB Daunte Culpepper instead. Brees signed a 6-year, $60 million deal with the Saints on March 14,"

 

But they were wrong, right? In your opinion, would you have let Brees go? Or was it not a mistake? Hindsight is 20/20 but that doesn't make them any less wrong. That's my only point, I understand why they did it, but GM's still make mistakes. My point has been lost twice now.

 

 

When using statistical tools to evaluate a QB--as you seem to be doing here--it's always important to use the right statistical tools. Using the wrong ones will create deceptive appearances.

 

Ryan Fitzpatrick played for a pass-happy coach; and did a pretty good job of avoiding injury. That gave him the chance to pile up a lot of passing yards. Not necessarily because he was doing anything special on a per play basis--he wasn't--but because he was out there for very many passing plays.

 

Also, the Bills' lack of commitment to their running game meant that a typical Gailey game would often have more plays and more possessions than many other teams' games. After Lynch was traded, the Bills lacked a power RB. That lack--plus the fact that Gailey was pass-happy to begin with--made the Bills disproportionately likely to run the ball while in the red zone. It wasn't that the Bills were particularly good at converting red zone possessions, because they weren't. But whenever they did convert, they were much more likely to have done so with a passing play than a running play.

 

Looking at yards per season or TDs per season rewards a QB for being out there for a lot of passing plays. That's why stats like those make Fitzpatrick look good. Another way of evaluating a QB is to look at what he did on a per play basis. In Dib's excellent post--the one he started off with a --he pointed out that Brees averaged 7.9 and 7.2 yards per pass in his last two years in San Diego. In his last two years in Buffalo, Fitz averaged 6.7 yards per pass. Those numbers are not remotely comparable.

 

If running back A had a 1000 yard season while averaging 3 yards a carry, and running back B had a 1000 yard season while averaging 6 yards a carry, would you say the two RBs were statistically the same? Neither would most general managers. By the same token, when a QB like Fitz does a lot less--on a per-play basis--than a QB like Brees, that's going to affect how GMs see the two QBs. As it should.

 

7.2 vs. 6.7 is not equal to 3 vs. 6. That's an awful example. A difference of .5 vs a difference of 3? Brees' numbers were comparable to RF's not worse or equal. Just close enough. RF also had only 5 more attempts than Brees did in 2005 Chargers vs 2012 Bills. Again, that's pretty comparable. Brees played better than RF; if that's your point, I agree with it. It just wasn't leaps and bounds better in terms of yards, yards per attempt, TD's, INT's, fumbles or completions. And read the above if you want the point I was making.

[Wayne Cubed]

7.2 vs. 6.7 is not equal to 3 vs. 6. That's an awful example. A difference of .5 vs a difference of 3? Brees' numbers were comparable to RF's not worse or equal. Just close enough. RF also had only 5 more attempts than Brees did in 2005 Chargers vs 2012 Bills. Again, that's pretty comparable. Brees played better than RF; if that's your point, I agree with it. It just wasn't leaps and bounds better in terms of yards, yards per attempt, TD's, INT's, fumbles or completions. And read the above if you want the point I was making.

 

Apparenlty you do not understand a couple things, statistics being one, decimals and averages being the other. When a QB is throwing 500+ balls the diference between 6.7 and 7.2 is huge. Even if RF went an extra 20-20 in a game averaging 10 yards a throw, that's 200 more yards WITHOUT an incompletion, his YPA still wouldn't come to what Bree's YPA was. RF would be at 7.0 YPA.

 

But seeing as RF is only a 60% thrower, lets extrapolate that a bit. Meaning out of 20 balls he might complete 12. So for him to get to 20 balls on an average of 10 yards a completion, he would go 20-33. And if we add that to his totals, his YPA only comes up to 6.8. See where I'm going here? RF would have had to play out of his mind to raise his YPA by a .5. So, no, there numbers aren't close.

Edited March 21, 2013 by Wayne Cubed

[FireChan]

Apparenlty you do not understand a couple things, statistics being one, decimals and averages being the other. When a QB is throwing 500+ balls the diference between 6.7 and 7.2 is huge. Even if RF went an extra 20-20 in a game averaging 10 yards a throw, that's 200 more yards WITHOUT an incompletion, his YPA still wouldn't come to what Bree's YPA was. RF would be at 7.0 YPA.

 

But seeing as RF is only a 60% thrower, lets extrapolate that a bit. Meaning out of 20 balls he might complete 12. So for him to get to 20 balls on an average of 10 yards a completion, he would go 20-33. And if we add that to his totals, his YPA only comes up to 6.8. See where I'm going here? RF would have had to play out of his mind to raise his YPA by a .5. So, no, there numbers aren't close.

 

Alright fine, I'll concede that they aren't as close as I assumed. After initially posting, I did realize that .5 would add up to quite a bit. Still nowhere near your 3 vs 6 comparison however. The rest of the stats are still quite close, Brees was not putting up the superstar numbers he is now and that's a fact. He was closer to RF numbers than his current ones.

[Beerball]

Right, so we're having a little trouble following the conversation, I get that.

 

Statistics tell me I should be basking in mid-50's sunshine today, instead it was in the low 20's this morning. People are 'having trouble following the conversation' because you are talking nonsense.

[FLFan]

Statistics tell me I should be basking in mid-50's sunshine today, instead it was in the low 20's this morning. People are 'having trouble following the conversation' because you are talking nonsense.

[Orton's Arm]

Alright fine, I'll concede that they aren't as close as I assumed. After initially posting, I did realize that .5 would add up to quite a bit. Still nowhere near your 3 vs 6 comparison however. The rest of the stats are still quite close, Brees was not putting up the superstar numbers he is now and that's a fact. He was closer to RF numbers than his current ones.

 

For comparison, Trent Edwards owns a career average of 6.5 yards per attempt, and Losman's career average is 6.6 yards per attempt. When Fitzpatrick averaged 6.7 yards per attempt the last two seasons, he was producing at a slightly higher level than one would have expected of Losman or Edwards.

 

Tom Brady's career average is 7.5 yards per attempt; and Peyton Manning's average is 7.6 yards per attempt. When Brees averaged 7.9 and 7.2 yards per attempt in the two seasons in question, he was producing in the Manning/Brady range. When the Dolphins rejected him, it was because they were concerned about whether he'd recover from his injury.

 

It's possible for a general manager to make mistakes about signing free agents. Normally those mistakes involve a general manager overpaying for a free agent. In the Bills' case, guys like Langston Walker, Larry Triplette, and Derrick Dockery come to mind. It only takes one erroneous GM to cause a player to become grossly overpaid. But the only way a free agent can become grossly underpaid, relative to his past accomplishments and future potential, is if every GM in the league fails to assess him correctly. That's why it's extremely rare to see a veteran player attract little interest on the free agent market, only to go on to achieve great things.

[ganesh]

Fine. Drew Brees' numbers on the Chargers were almost identical to RF's here. Chargers traded him. Now he's a top 5 QB. Explain their wisdom there.

 

As Dibs (thanks for the input) posted, not even close....

 

Brees:

2004: 262-400-3159.....65.5%......27TD......7INT.....Y/A 7.9.....104.8QBR....11-4 win/loss......All-pro

2005: 323-500-3576.....64.6%......24TD....15INT.....Y/A 7.2.....89.2QBR.....9-7 win/loss

 

Fitz:

2011: 353-569-3832....62%.......24TD.....23INT.....Y/A 6.7.....79.1QBR.....5-8 win/loss

2012: 306-505-3400....60.6%....24TD.....16INT.....Y/A 6.7.....83.3QBR.....6-10 win/loss

 

Fitz had 23 INT as opposed to 7 by Brees....That is a Grand Canyon size difference between a good and bad QB.

[FireChan]

Remember how everyone blamed this guy as the reason the Bills couldn't get big names to come here? No one would want to be on a team with RF as the guy throwing? Let's look at Tennessee now. 3 former Bills players, including Levitre a "top 10 guard". Pollard, the Patriot killing machine. Shonn Greene. Fokou. Jake Locker is worse than RF. How'd they get free agents to go there without a "real" QB?

 

If Tennessee drafts 2 decent WR's, they're in the playoffs. I'd literally put money on it. If CJ can play a little more like his old self and run for 1400 yards, they'll be there.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Let's look at Tennessee now. 3 former Bills players, including Levitre a "top 10 guard". Pollard, the Patriot killing machine. Shonn Greene. Fokou. Jake Locker is worse than RF. How'd they get free agents to go there without a "real" QB?

 

People were actually saying that free agents wouldn't want to come to Buffalo for numerous reasons and that the Bills would have to overpay to get free agents to come here.

 

Free agents follow the money for the most part.

 

That's the reason these players signed with Tennessee, because the Titans offered the most money.

[Big Gun]

As Dibs (thanks for the input) posted, not even close....

 

Brees:

2004: 262-400-3159.....65.5%......27TD......7INT.....Y/A 7.9.....104.8QBR....11-4 win/loss......All-pro

2005: 323-500-3576.....64.6%......24TD....15INT.....Y/A 7.2.....89.2QBR.....9-7 win/loss

 

Fitz:

2011: 353-569-3832....62%.......24TD.....23INT.....Y/A 6.7.....79.1QBR.....5-8 win/loss

2012: 306-505-3400....60.6%....24TD.....16INT.....Y/A 6.7.....83.3QBR.....6-10 win/loss

 

Fitz had 23 INT as opposed to 7 by Brees....That is a Grand Canyon size difference between a good and bad QB.

 

Not sticking up for Fitz at all but Interceptions are not the be all end all like you are portraying them to be.

 

J Kelly had 8 years of 17 or more ints, was he good or bad?

Marino had 4 years of 21 or more ints he is HOF like Kelly, right?

Brees had 7 in 2004 but had 22 ints in 2010, does that make him a bad QB?

E Manning has had years of 20 and 25 ints, is he bad also?

P Manning had years of 28, 23, 19, he is HOF bound.

 

It is no secret that Fitz isn't the greatest QB and wasn't going to lead this group of bums to the playoffs but what he accomplished with a hack for a coach and what he had to throw to at WR, I only hope the next guy can give us 20-25 TDs and 3500-4000 yards per or it really is taking 2 steps back. The grass isn't always greener on the other side.

Edited March 24, 2013 by billsbum

[TheFunPolice]

My biggest problem with Fitzpatrick was that his presence here kept this delusional front office from doing ANYTHING about the QB position.

 

Thus, I am glad he's gone so they finally have to get serious. Russell Wilson should be on this team right now, but he's not because they "had their guy."

 

Fitzpatrick can make some plays here and there and take you on a 4-5 game run. That's about it.

[Maury Ballstein]

Remember how everyone blamed this guy as the reason the Bills couldn't get big names to come here? No one would want to be on a team with RF as the guy throwing? Let's look at Tennessee now. 3 former Bills players, including Levitre a "top 10 guard". Pollard, the Patriot killing machine. Shonn Greene. Fokou. Jake Locker is worse than RF. How'd they get free agents to go there without a "real" QB?

 

If Tennessee drafts 2 decent WR's, they're in the playoffs. I'd literally put money on it. If CJ can play a little more like his old self and run for 1400 yards, they'll be there.

 

Ummm fitz is the backup....Young Jake Locker is the franchise for now.

 

Fitz isn't a part of the titans FA attractiveness equation right now. Hes just one of many that the titans have threw good money at.....he will be by week 8 though. Locker seems be be oft-injured. It'll be fun to watch him as a non bill.

Edited March 24, 2013 by Ryan L Billz

[White Linen]

It's possible for a general manager to make mistakes about signing free agents. Normally those mistakes involve a general manager overpaying for a free agent. In the Bills' case, guys like Langston Walker, Larry Triplette, and Derrick Dockery come to mind. It only takes one erroneous GM to cause a player to become grossly overpaid. But the only way a free agent can become grossly underpaid, relative to his past accomplishments and future potential, is if every GM in the league fails to assess him correctly. That's why it's extremely rare to see a veteran player attract little interest on the free agent market, only to go on to achieve great things.

 

That's one of the best explanations of the dangers of signing free agents I've read.

[ganesh]

My biggest problem with Fitzpatrick was that his presence here kept this delusional front office from doing ANYTHING about the QB position.

 

Thus, I am glad he's gone so they finally have to get serious. Russell Wilson should be on this team right now, but he's not because they "had their guy."

 

Fitzpatrick can make some plays here and there and take you on a 4-5 game run. That's about it.

 

+1 and this is a big part of the failure for the past three years.

[Kelly the Dog]

My biggest problem with Fitzpatrick was that his presence here kept this delusional front office from doing ANYTHING about the QB position.

 

Thus, I am glad he's gone so they finally have to get serious. Russell Wilson should be on this team right now, but he's not because they "had their guy."

 

That's just not true. Russell Wilson was thought of by everyone including the Seahawks to be a back-up and a project. Every team needs and wants two QBs. Nix liked Wilson and could have drafted him in round three or four, he just didn't. The Bills also knew they needed a back-up as evidenced by bringing in Vince Young and trading for TJax. Fitz on the team had nothing to do with Wilson not being on the team.

 

And if the Bills were in the position they are in now last year, they would have taken a different QB in the first two rounds and not Wilson, which no team thought should have gone in the first two rounds.

[Prickly Pete]

It's really not about the numb-ers. It's really about WHEN he makes bad passes, his inconsistencies, and how his abilities limit the offense.

Edited March 25, 2013 by Marauder'sMicro

[Webster Guy]

My biggest problem with Fitzpatrick was that his presence here kept this delusional front office from doing ANYTHING about the QB position.

 

Thus, I am glad he's gone so they finally have to get serious. Russell Wilson should be on this team right now, but he's not because they "had their guy."

 

Fitzpatrick can make some plays here and there and take you on a 4-5 game run. That's about it.

This is precisely how I feel. Its like having a bad marriage that isn't bad enough to end.

 

And for the record, you moneyball guys are crackin' me up here with your Brees v Fitz stuff. It reminds me of that great Chevy Chase line on SNL when he's the politician and they throw all these figures at him and he says "uh....its my understanding there would BE no math....."

 

So here's my own number for you stat boys: There have been only six 5000 yard passing season in NFL history, and Brees has three of them.

[Bronc24]

This is precisely how I feel. Its like having a bad marriage that isn't bad enough to end.

 

And for the record, you moneyball guys are crackin' me up here with your Brees v Fitz stuff. It reminds me of that great Chevy Chase line on SNL when he's the politician and they throw all these figures at him and he says "uh....its my understanding there would BE no math....."

 

So here's my own number for you stat boys: There have been only six 5000 yard passing season in NFL history, and Brees has three of them.

 

Agree. 3400 yards and 20 + TDs are thrown out like they are milestones in today's game. They're not and they do not tell the 4th quarter story with Fitzpatrick.

[PromoTheRobot]

Agree. 3400 yards and 20 + TDs are thrown out like they are milestones in today's game. They're not and they do not tell the 4th quarter story with Fitzpatrick.

 

The 4th Q story is usually Fitz desperately trying to overcome a 30-point deficit crated by the defense. But that's okay. There is no point convincing folks that Fitz wasn't the worst QB in the NFL. I'm sure there will be some very creative excuses why our new QB can't outperform Fitz.

 

PTR