WhitewalkerInPhilly Posted March 31, 2013 Posted March 31, 2013 This also frees us up to drafting a guy who can make Stevie happy. C. Patterson. This guy has talent a can take a short pass and take it to the house on any play. I could see an opening day roster on offense that looks like this. Remember we are running an up- tempo (almost like K-Gun) offense WR Stevie , Patterson,B. Smith TE Chandler RB Spiller QB Kolb LT Glenn LG Snow C Wood RG Urbik RT Harrison There is firepower on the field with Spiller, Stevie, Patterson, and I will toss in a healthy Fred Jackson. Maybe Kolb is or isnt. Maybe T. Jackson will surprise us. But you can score points with this amount of talent we have. The Defense is where the real problem of this team lies. I like the idea of taking Patterson at #8. I think you could put Patterson on the outside with Brad Smith or Graham or and put Stevie in the slot next to him and suddenly have a pick your poison scenario. This works well no matter who is throwing the ball next season, especially if you get Spiller and Jackson in the mix doing slants and screens.
Kelly the Dog Posted March 31, 2013 Posted March 31, 2013 I'm not sure he got "beat out" by Leinart so much as going to the Cards with the assumption that he was only good for backup duty at that point and Leinart was gonna be The Man. So it was Leinart's job to lose and he got enough rope to hang himself. Well, he got replaced by LukeJosh McKown his first year there. Then was the starter but got benched for Leinart the second year. Then they made Leinart the starter the third year he was there. Then he beat Leinart out at the beginning of the fourth year and became good again. So it took quite awhile before he became Kurt Warner again.
John from Riverside Posted March 31, 2013 Posted March 31, 2013 NOW watch Geno Smith fall to 8 and give us a real delima
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 31, 2013 Posted March 31, 2013 This is really nitpicking. The market has been very slow-moving. There are still numerous respectable players dangling on the market right now. The quarterback market was unstable and some pieces had to fall into place. The Bills and Kolb ended up together. That it took a few weeks is needlessly negative. I'm thinking that the Bills really didn't decide they needed a 2nd veteran until they completed their due diligence looking at all the QB. An educated guess would be that 1) they decided they didn't like Geno enough to trade up for him (Marrone pwned him with 'Cuse after all), 2) they didn't like the QB who might be NFL-ready as much as they hoped (Barkley?), and 3) they decided "their guy(s)" that they would go for in the draft weren't ready to start and would need to sit on the bench for a year or 2 and learn. So they wanted someone with some potential upside to compete with TJax as starter this year. If they'd made that call earlier, they might have had a bit more give-n-take in their talks with Fitz, but the timing was wrong. Unless we get an insider's insight, we won't know for sure, though when we see what they do on draft day we can support or refute part of this.
Kelly the Dog Posted March 31, 2013 Posted March 31, 2013 NOW watch Geno Smith fall to 8 and give us a real delima If Geno falls to 8 I think we take him. I really don't think this signing changes the draft plans at all, with the slight distinction of not having to draft a certain guy they really don't want because they are desperate. It allows us to look closer at a EJ Manuel who may need a little time, that's the only change I see. We will still draft a QB high.
Dibs Posted March 31, 2013 Posted March 31, 2013 But, the Bills are still eating $10M of cap with Fitz. There's no shrewdness here. Perhaps shrewdness was the wrong word as it implies too high a level of intelligence.....but depending on Kolb's contract, it certainly could be a better cap situation for us......with a few assumptions. Assuming both Kolb & Fitz are of similar quality.....both being crappy starting NFL QBs.... .....and assuming the Bills intend for Kolb(Fitz) to be a backup to a rookie.... .....and assuming Kolb's contract is actually a 2 yr/6.5m deal with another 6.5m in incentives(for percent of snaps taken ala TJax's deal).... .....then the Bills will get what they want from their Kolb QB for less cap hit than had they retained Fitz.....even if Fitz had agreed to a 3m/year pay cut. (Assumed)Kolb is 6.5m + 10m Fitz dead cap hit = 16.5m over 2013/14 (Assumed)Fitz would have been 21m - 6m pay cut = 15m over 2013/14....plus another 4m dead if cut after 2014 totaling 19m. Which of course would have been 25m if Fitz refused to take a pay cut.
Kelly the Dog Posted March 31, 2013 Posted March 31, 2013 I'm thinking that the Bills really didn't decide they needed a 2nd veteran until they completed their due diligence looking at all the QB. An educated guess would be that 1) they decided they didn't like Geno enough to trade up for him (Marrone pwned him with 'Cuse after all), 2) they didn't like the QB who might be NFL-ready as much as they hoped (Barkley?), and 3) they decided "their guy(s)" that they would go for in the draft weren't ready to start and would need to sit on the bench for a year or 2 and learn. So they wanted someone with some potential upside to compete with TJax as starter this year. If they'd made that call earlier, they might have had a bit more give-n-take in their talks with Fitz, but the timing was wrong. Unless we get an insider's insight, we won't know for sure, though when we see what they do on draft day we can support or refute part of this. By asking Fitz to take a pay cut and offering him a contract for 3m a year and starter incentives to make it 7, they already wanted two guys. Then signing Kolb, whose contract IMO is going to look a lot like that Fitz offer, makes me believe this was the plan all along. They needed to do the due diligence on the pro guys as much as the college guys.
WhitewalkerInPhilly Posted March 31, 2013 Posted March 31, 2013 I don't understand this post. Because we cut Fitz, we are taking that big $10 million hit - $3 this year, $7 next. If Fitz had stayed without restructure, we would have paid him $7.75 million or something like that ($3 million bonus, $4.25 million-ish salary, plus a workout bonus). Which is high, but not $10 million. The fact that Fitz signed 2 years/$3.25 million per year with the Titans, tells me that he was indeed willing to restructure but what the Bills were offering him for 2013/2014 was lower salary, incentives they would be able to make it tough for him to reach, and no guaranteed money. I'm waiting with interest for the details of Kolb's contract. If the Bills are guaranteeing him more than $3 million this year, I doan geddit. Unless after watching all the film there is, they feel Kolb could be a better WCO-specific QB than Fitz. Which is possibly true. But a true WCO is a timing offense, dependent on crisp precise route-running. Tell me again, which of our WR are known for crisp precise route-running? It ain't Stevie. We are indeed taking the hit. But, from what I have heard from reports at the time of the release, is that when taking into account the projected increase in the cap next year, it would level out and have less of an impact. From what I remember at the time of the release of Fitz, they made an offer where he would have made $3 million base, with up to $7 million a year with incentives. The guaranteed money was the real clincher, and Fitz apparently said "no way". It seems clear that Nix is planning to take a QB in the draft, and doesn't want to be handcuffed to the idea of starting him right away. In this scenario, Kolb has the Fitz contract we wanted. What this is saying to me is that we want to give a rookie a chance to start in 2014, and by the time Kolb's contract is up our books will be almost completely clear to give him (or whoever we draft in 2014 if said rookie doesn't pan out) the same FA treatment we're seeing Miami take. Perhaps shrewdness was the wrong word as it implies too high a level of intelligence.....but depending on Kolb's contract, it certainly could be a better cap situation for us......with a few assumptions. Assuming both Kolb & Fitz are of similar quality.....both being crappy starting NFL QBs.... .....and assuming the Bills intend for Kolb(Fitz) to be a backup to a rookie.... .....and assuming Kolb's contract is actually a 2 yr/6.5m deal with another 6.5m in incentives(for percent of snaps taken ala TJax's deal).... .....then the Bills will get what they want from their Kolb QB for less cap hit than had they retained Fitz.....even if Fitz had agreed to a 3m/year pay cut. (Assumed)Kolb is 6.5m + 10m Fitz dead cap hit = 16.5m over 2013/14 (Assumed)Fitz would have been 21m - 6m pay cut = 15m over 2013/14....plus another 4m dead if cut after 2014 totaling 19m. Which of course would have been 25m if Fitz refused to take a pay cut. This. Thank you for running the numbers.
Koufax Posted March 31, 2013 Posted March 31, 2013 NOW watch Geno Smith fall to 8 and give us a real delima If by "dilemma" you mean picking Geno Smith at #8, and deciding who to release between TJ and KK at the end of camp, then yes, that would be a "dilemma". There is no way we should pass on Geno at #8 for a less important position. We need a franchise QB more than anything else, and an amazing guard or a talented linebacker or any other need can't interfere with that. Kolb gives us much more flexibility not to reach at #8 if we think there is only #41 talent on the board, or if the chips fall badly, even push our QB pick to 2014. But it does not give us any chance of passing on a QB we think could be (50/50 or greater, not a Luck lock) a playoff caliber starter. I think Geno is very clearly in that "could be" category, and Barkley might very well be as well. I think everybody else falls into the less than 50/50 chance hope or project and would be fine with taking at #41 or later in the first, but I would be very skeptical about taking at #8.
Dibs Posted March 31, 2013 Posted March 31, 2013 We are indeed taking the hit. But, from what I have heard from reports at the time of the release, is that when taking into account the projected increase in the cap next year, it would level out and have less of an impact. ....... Have you actually heard that the projected salary cap will significantly increase in 2014? I have a fair interest in the cap side of things and have generally heard that it will remain pretty much the same for the next few years. If this is the case, the Bills will be very tight next year in regards to the cap.....but not as much as many other teams. Link here to an article on cap projections. http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Journal/Issues/2012/06/18/Leagues-and-Governing-Bodies/NFL-cap.aspx
Koufax Posted March 31, 2013 Posted March 31, 2013 Perhaps shrewdness was the wrong word as it implies too high a level of intelligence.....but depending on Kolb's contract, it certainly could be a better cap situation for us......with a few assumptions. Assuming both Kolb & Fitz are of similar quality.....both being crappy starting NFL QBs.... .....and assuming the Bills intend for Kolb(Fitz) to be a backup to a rookie.... .....and assuming Kolb's contract is actually a 2 yr/6.5m deal with another 6.5m in incentives(for percent of snaps taken ala TJax's deal).... .....then the Bills will get what they want from their Kolb QB for less cap hit than had they retained Fitz.....even if Fitz had agreed to a 3m/year pay cut. (Assumed)Kolb is 6.5m + 10m Fitz dead cap hit = 16.5m over 2013/14 (Assumed)Fitz would have been 21m - 6m pay cut = 15m over 2013/14....plus another 4m dead if cut after 2014 totaling 19m. Which of course would have been 25m if Fitz refused to take a pay cut. A lot of assumptions. As I mentioned before, Kolb has never started 10 games, thrown for 10 TDs or 2000 Yds. Fitz is coming off three straight 13 game, 3000 YDs, 22 TD seasons. So expecting Kolb to be better than Fitz seems like a little too much speculation. I think he could be, but the odds are less than 50/50. However, we had no chance to have Fitz at the cap and dollar numbers we paid for KK, and there would be the always disruption and controversy element of demoting a three year starter to backup, no matter how much Fitz might have agreed. And I agree that the likely difference between the two is not significant enough (neither would win likely win us a playoff game before our 2013 pick is the starter, and neither would be so terrible as to hold back the team). I am very happy with the Kolb signing, for depth, competition, backup potential, and potentially biding time for a draft pick to develop, but anybody who preorders their Officail Kolb Jersey is probably going pretty far out on a limb.
Kelly the Dog Posted March 31, 2013 Posted March 31, 2013 Have you actually heard that the projected salary cap will significantly increase in 2014? I have a fair interest in the cap side of things and have generally heard that it will remain pretty much the same for the next few years. If this is the case, the Bills will be very tight next year in regards to the cap.....but not as much as many other teams. Link here to an article on cap projections. http://www.sportsbus...es/NFL-cap.aspx Thanks a lot for that link. I would have just assumed that the new TV deal would provide a jump, but that jump will seemingly now not come for a few years.
Dibs Posted March 31, 2013 Posted March 31, 2013 A lot of assumptions. As I mentioned before, Kolb has never started 10 games, thrown for 10 TDs or 2000 Yds. Fitz is coming off three straight 13 game, 3000 YDs, 22 TD seasons. So expecting Kolb to be better than Fitz seems like a little too much speculation. I think he could be, but the odds are less than 50/50. A lot of assumptions indeed . Following just one assumption though.....and that is the assumption that Kolb will be the #2 QB behind a rookie starter.....neither his injury history nor his overall ability compared to Fitz will be relevant unless the rookie gets injured. I'm hoping that we not only get lucky and get a superstar QB in the draft......but that he also stays healthy for 15 years so we never get to see how good/bad our backups are.
BADOLBILZ Posted March 31, 2013 Posted March 31, 2013 I don't know if I can remember another incidence where: THE laugingstock organization of the league acquired THE laugingstock quarterback of the league The ONLY evaluation of Kolb that matters is that he can't stay healthy. That alone SHOULD make him un-signable for an organization that is actively trying to change it's culture.......which happens to include being the most injury prone team in the NFL. In short, I am a Bills fan so I get this signing.
Nanker Posted March 31, 2013 Posted March 31, 2013 Here's Drafttek's list of the QBs available in The Draft. Their ranking is the first number, followed by (in parenthesis) their overall ranking within the pool of all players at all positions. The school, player, his class level, height and poundage are listed. 1 (17) West Virginia Geno Smith Sr 6'2" 218 2 (41) Tennessee Tyler Bray Jr 6'6" 232 3 (56) Miami (OH) Zac Dysert Sr 6'3" 231 4 (63) Arkansas Tyler Wilson Sr 6'2" 215 5 (69) USC Matt Barkley Sr 6'2" 227 6 (81) North Carolina St Mike Glennon Sr 6'7" 225 7 (88) Syracuse Ryan Nassib Sr 6'2" 227 8 (113) Arizona Matt Scott Sr 6'2" 213 9 (120) Florida State E.J. Manuel& Sr 6'5" 237 10 (162) Oklahoma Landry Jones Sr 6'4" 225 11 (206) Southern Utah Brad Sorensen Sr 6'4" 229 12 (226) Duke Sean Renfree Sr 6'3" 219 13 (267) Tulane Ryan Griffin Sr 6'4" 216 14 (280) Kansas State Collin Klein Sr 6'5" 226 15 (315) Vanderbilt Jordan Rodgers Sr 6'1" 208 16 (329) Washington State Jeff Tuel Sr 6'3" 223 17 (351) Western Michigan Alex Carder Sr 6'2" 224 18 (364) Louisiana Tech Colby Cameron Sr 6'2" 212 19 (382) Minnesota MarQueis Gray Sr 6'3" 240 So, if The Bills don't pick a QB at #8, they could see the top ten QBs listed here off the board because there are a lot of teams that pick ahead of us at #41 that need a developmental QB.
Kelly the Dog Posted March 31, 2013 Posted March 31, 2013 Here's Drafttek's list of the QBs available in The Draft. Their ranking is the first number, followed by (in parenthesis) their overall ranking within the pool of all players at all positions. The school, player, his class level, height and poundage are listed. 1 (17) West Virginia Geno Smith Sr 6'2" 218 2 (41) Tennessee Tyler Bray Jr 6'6" 232 3 (56) Miami (OH) Zac Dysert Sr 6'3" 231 4 (63) Arkansas Tyler Wilson Sr 6'2" 215 5 (69) USC Matt Barkley Sr 6'2" 227 6 (81) North Carolina St Mike Glennon Sr 6'7" 225 7 (88) Syracuse Ryan Nassib Sr 6'2" 227 8 (113) Arizona Matt Scott Sr 6'2" 213 9 (120) Florida State E.J. Manuel& Sr 6'5" 237 10 (162) Oklahoma Landry Jones Sr 6'4" 225 11 (206) Southern Utah Brad Sorensen Sr 6'4" 229 12 (226) Duke Sean Renfree Sr 6'3" 219 13 (267) Tulane Ryan Griffin Sr 6'4" 216 14 (280) Kansas State Collin Klein Sr 6'5" 226 15 (315) Vanderbilt Jordan Rodgers Sr 6'1" 208 16 (329) Washington State Jeff Tuel Sr 6'3" 223 17 (351) Western Michigan Alex Carder Sr 6'2" 224 18 (364) Louisiana Tech Colby Cameron Sr 6'2" 212 19 (382) Minnesota MarQueis Gray Sr 6'3" 240 So, if The Bills don't pick a QB at #8, they could see the top ten QBs listed here off the board because there are a lot of teams that pick ahead of us at #41 that need a developmental QB. I totally understand those kind of rankings, but since QBs are valued so much more than other positions and teams reach/gamble for that position so much more, a guy rated at #41 is still likely to get drafted in the teens or 20s.
Coach Tuesday Posted March 31, 2013 Posted March 31, 2013 I don't know if I can remember another incidence where: THE laugingstock organization of the league acquired THE laugingstock quarterback of the league I sure can: http://espn.go.com/new-york/nfl/story/_/id/7720305/new-york-jets-denver-broncos-complete-tim-tebow-trade-second-time
Charles Romes Posted March 31, 2013 Posted March 31, 2013 Other than the fact Kolb has a weak arm stands back there like a statue and folds under pressure he's pretty good. Seriously, of you are trying to tank the season for Maziel in 14 there are cheaper ways do do it. Curtis painter may be available.
Nanker Posted March 31, 2013 Posted March 31, 2013 I totally understand those kind of rankings, but since QBs are valued so much more than other positions and teams reach/gamble for that position so much more, a guy rated at #41 is still likely to get drafted in the teens or 20s. Absolutely! And to me that means the likelihood of several QBs taken before our spot at 41 is very high. All it takes is one to start a run. Maybe it doesn't start at the top of the 1st, but there could be slim pickin's with respect to getting a starter by the time 41 rolls around.
Kelly the Dog Posted March 31, 2013 Posted March 31, 2013 Absolutely! And to me that means the likelihood of several QBs taken before our spot at 41 is very high. All it takes is one to start a run. Maybe it doesn't start at the top of the 1st, but there could be slim pickin's with respect to getting a starter by the time 41 rolls around. Yep. I think at least four are off the board by 41. If we want one of them, we have to trade up to the bottom of first or top of second, which is likely what we will do. The Kolb signing makes me believe that we will try to trade up and draft Nassib or Manuel at the last third of the first round.
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