one of the problems with Nix's drafting-Southern players only

[dave mcbride]

Clearly, the Bills' drafts under Nix haven't been great, although they've landed some decent players. I've long said that he focuses almost exclusively on states that lost in the Civil War (except for a couple of very minor exceptions): SEC, ACC, and Texas. But I also thought about the guys he missed on.

 

He took TJ Graham (NC State) rather than Wisconsin's Russell Wilson. He took Aaron Williams rather than Nevada's Colin Caepernick. He took Central Florida's Torrell Troup rather than Arizona's Rob Gronkowski.

 

Then I looked at the record: http://www.pro-footb.../buf/draft.htm.

 

2012 - one guy who was not from the South, and that player was drafted in the 6th round.

 

2011 - every player was from the South

 

2010 - rounds 1-3 were from the South; a 4th rounder, a sixth rounder, and 1 out of 2 seventh rounders were not from the South.

 

Over three years and 27 picks, the Bills have taken 4 players who were not from states that lost in the Civil war - 14.8 percent. He has not drafted one non-South guy before round 4. The CSA had 11 states. The remaining 39 states were not in the Confederacy. (A quick note - Jasper played for a southern school that isn't listed here (Bethel College in TN), and Williams played for Texas, not North Texas.)

 

I get that there are good players in the South. That's obvious. But good football players come from everywhere. The only schools he has drafted from outside the former CSA are Iowa, South Dakota, Oregon, and Connecticut (again, all late round picks). He hasn't drafted anyone who went to school in California, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, etc.

 

The evidence seems clear -- the guy has a comfort zone that he is unable to move out of. At the risk of sounding ageist, that's not atypical of people in their seventies. The Bills need someone more open minded than this.

Edited March 12, 2013 by dave mcbride

[Wagon Circler]

I have had similar thoughts about this year's draft. Will guys outside the South get a fair look from the Bills?

There are some good football players in the North too. Even a quarterback or two.

[BillsWatch]

Clearly, the Bills' drafts under Nix haven't been great, although they've landed some decent players. I've long said that he focuses almost exclusively on states that lost in the Civil War (except for a couple of very minor exceptions): SEC, ACC, and Texas. But I also thought about the guys he missed on.

 

Easy to say "guys he missed on" in retrospect - why do you not list all of the players who will be missed on day one after draft if you are so good at projecting the future rather than reading box scores after they have occurred.

[BillsVet]

I'd hate to be the northern or western area scouts. Those guys gotta feel unloved.

 

It's a nuanced argument debating the players taken and their respective region. But to exclude a significant area of the nation 3 years in a row is not a coincidence. If you always do what's familiar you'll never know what you're missing.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

I've definitely seen indications that Nix is a dogmatic thinker but I think he's slowly evolving, due to the graphic nature of his mistakes.

 

His comments about drafting a quarterback these days are in sharp contrast to his comments when he was hired.

 

His comments about trading in the draft have also tempered somewhat.

 

I think Nix has made enough mistakes that he's been forced to re-evaluate some of his core beliefs.

 

Hopefully he can continue to do well what he does well and improves on those things that he does poorly.

 

Easy to say "guys he missed on" in retrospect - why do you not list all of the players who will be missed on day one after draft if you are so good at projecting the future rather than reading box scores after they have occurred.

 

I'm not sure what your point is and how it is relevant to the OP.

 

He's talking about Nix's very strong propensity of drafting players from the south.

[Max997]

The problem is not where the players are from its just that some of the players he drafted are just not that good.

 

Troup and Williams were just awful picks

Edited March 12, 2013 by Max997

[dave mcbride]

Easy to say "guys he missed on" in retrospect - why do you not list all of the players who will be missed on day one after draft if you are so good at projecting the future rather than reading box scores after they have occurred.

My point is that it seems like he's unwilling to consider non-south guys in the first three rounds generally avoids them in all rounds -- i.e., he has a closed mind about the issue.

 

I've definitely seen indications that Nix is a dogmatic thinker but I think he's slowly evolving, due to the graphic nature of his mistakes.

 

His comments about drafting a quarterback these days are in sharp contrast to his comments when he was hired.

 

His comments about trading in the draft have also tempered somewhat.

 

I think Nix has made enough mistakes that he's been forced to re-evaluate some of his core beliefs.

 

Hopefully he can continue to do well what he does well and improves on those things that he does poorly.

 

 

 

I'm not sure what your point is and how it is relevant to the OP.

 

He's talking about Nix's very strong propensity of drafting players from the south.

 

I've noted some change in his comments lately too. That's a good thing.

[Max997]

 

 

Easy to say "guys he missed on" in retrospect - why do you not list all of the players who will be missed on day one after draft if you are so good at projecting the future rather than reading box scores after they have occurred.

 

It is but there are a lot of people on this board that hated the Troup and Williams picks when they were made not just in retrospect

[mannc]

It is but there are a lot of people on this board that hated the Troup and Williams picks when they were made not just in retrospect

That's true, but even if folks here loved the picks when they were made made, they still have the right to criticize the Bills for making them if they bust. "In retrospect" is the only way to evaluate a GM. GM's are paid to be smarter than the fans and, more importantly, smarter than other GMs. No matter how "popular" a GM's picks were on draft day, if they can't play on Sunday, he will (and should be) fired, at least in organizations that maintain accountability.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

Its laziness or not having any confidence in talent e v a l. Nix knows the south, so he goes with the south. They coach the north-south game, so they draft a bunch of guys they coach in that game.

 

Kinda scary.

[Dibs]

My point is that it seems like he's unwilling to consider non-south guys in the first three rounds generally avoids them in all rounds -- i.e., he has a closed mind about the issue.

 

Thanks for the info. Statistically speaking it would be extremely unlikely for the drafting pattern you have shown to occur, without some sort of personal bias involved.

 

 

I have not lived in America......is an overall North-South bias an unheard of phenomena? Or is it a known bias amongst a certain percent of the population? I know there is a natural bias amongst some people towards their home State.....and particularly their home College......but am unsure if this bias occurs in people over such a broad geographical area.

 

If it is not unheard of for some people to favour anything North.....or anything South, over their geographical opposite equivalences, then perhaps this is a case of Nix drinking the Southern cool-aid. He sees two equivalent talents.....one from the North, one from the South. His natural emotional bias towards the South has him perceive the Southern player as a slightly better fit(even though both are rated to a similar level).....therefore he gives the nod to the Southern player. Rinse & repeat.

[djsabres]

That and the SEc is the most dominate Conference out there. They put more players in the NFL than any other.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Thanks for the info. Statistically speaking it would be extremely unlikely for the drafting pattern you have shown to occur, without some sort of personal bias involved.

 

I have not lived in America......is an overall North-South bias an unheard of phenomena?

 

There's a certain logic to his bias. They love their football in the South. Highschool football is the highlight of many a small town Friday night. College football is practiced with religious fervor.

 

The SEC and ACC are dominant conferences, and some of their teams are very deep. It's sometimes felt that backup or role players on some of these teams are better than starters on other teams.

 

On the other hand, there are some durn good players up north. In hindsight, Marcell Dareus or JJ Watt? The Texans took the later.

Edited March 12, 2013 by Hopeful

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Dibs, in the mainstream where most people reside it is less pronounced because due to the electronic media, all of our worlds become more homogeneous. Television and internet tend to make us more similar in how we dress, talk, think, etc.

 

However that said, strong regional biases and chauvinisms still exist without a doubt.

 

I believe these biases exists in smaller countries but in a large country like the U.S. regions are often very far from each other, farther than many countries are from each other in other parts of the world for instance. This factor makes for distinctly different cultures within our country.

[Dragonborn10]

Thanks for the info. Statistically speaking it would be extremely unlikely for the drafting pattern you have shown to occur, without some sort of personal bias involved.

 

 

I have not lived in America......is an overall North-South bias an unheard of phenomena? Or is it a known bias amongst a certain percent of the population? I know there is a natural bias amongst some people towards their home State.....and particularly their home College......but am unsure if this bias occurs in people over such a broad geographical area.

 

If it is not unheard of for some people to favour anything North.....or anything South, over their geographical opposite equivalences, then perhaps this is a case of Nix drinking the Southern cool-aid. He sees two equivalent talents.....one from the North, one from the South. His natural emotional bias towards the South has him perceive the Southern player as a slightly better fit(even though both are rated to a similar level).....therefore he gives the nod to the Southern player. Rinse & repeat.

The best HS football is played in Texas, Florida, California, and many of the states that voted against civil rights. Most of those players stay loyal to local schools. In general get your defenders from the SEC, your WR's from Florida and California, RB's from Texas, Florida, and California, QB's from California or Western Pennsylvania. The PAC 12 plays no run defense - thus you can find ovverated RB's, and decent secondary guys. QB's from the SEC are dumb and usually well paid from their sophmore year of HS. How do schools like Ohio State, Oregon, and Michigan compete? Well Ohio State was a doormat until they hired John Cooper from Arizona State. He immediatley started recruiting WR's from California. Oregon gets all its best players from Texas and California. Michigan used to steal from Ohio until Tressel stopped much of that. Tressel nearly destroyed that program and despite a little mini-resurgence last year, Urban Meyer will finish them off. Meyer will out recruit even if he has to cheat everyone in the Big Ten. I think the two position that might be found relatively consistently acorss the country are LB and TE. Every team needs good LB's and a lot of teams are looking for two different type of TE's - recieveing and blocking. You can find both of them in the Big East or ACC - Keuchly for example - Big 12, Pac 12, Big Ten and SEC.

So if you are looking for a year in which Nix goes outside of the South look no further. We need QB's, LB's, and WR's. Still could see SEC guys in Patterson, the Tylers, and Jones taken from the SEC. But there are others like Jordan from Oregon that could surprise in the first round and others in the second.

[BuckeyeBill]

I am not an SEC fan whatsoever... but you have to give them the props. The SEC is now getting the highest rated high school prospects, coaching them with arguably the best set of coaches, and competing against the highest level of competition. I would select a blue chip high school recruit who has been coached by Nick Saban for four years over a kid who is not, almost every single time.

[Kkspike]

Not just from the south but just one Asian.

[CarolinaBill]

1: Russell Wilson played all but 1 yr in the ACC at NC State.

2: there were not 50 states during the Civil War. The statement that " there were 11 states in the CSA and the other 39 were not is misleading.

3: Please look at our drafts prior to nix arriving, same sample size (3 yrs). Tell me the success rate of our southern vs. non southern picks and what the numbers are. Here's the link http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?teamId=0610&type=team

 

in the 3 yrs prior to nix we drafted 7 out of 28 players from the south. 21 from non southern teams. Amazingly, 17 of those 21 non southern players were basically garbage or ran out of town and hated by bills fans. The success rate of our Dixie players during that same time period 5/7 were players that became starters.

 

Another thing to remember is that not every players will become a superstar.. If you get 4 good players that become either rotational players or legit starters that's success. using that as the measuring stick nix's Drafts look like this:

 

16 picks that have become players or are being developed and groomed ( i include Graham, sanders, and moats in this group)

11 picks that have done nothing, or almost nothing and who are no longer with the team.

 

of those 16 positive picks 15 are "southern" players

of the 11 "busts" 7 are Northern players.

 

What's the point of all this?

 

Nix has missed on some guys, and as others have said, it's easy to Cherry Pick the missed opportunities in hindsight, however, he has added alot of talent to a roster that was very bad when he arrived.

 

To say that because he's old and Southern means he somehow out of touch and unwilling to draft Northern Players is Idiotic.

[17 Josh Allen]

Nix needs to wake the F up. They had Alexander

In for a tryout last year mid season and did not sign him. Chargers grabbed him and he went off

This guy has size and speed with huge hands

And is the prototype outside wideout.

 

He is without a doubt a stud. Please sign this guy

So we can move on to other positions.

 

Man I wish I was the bills GM

 

We would be looking at Russell Wilson

As our starting QB

 

Hi light reel nuff said

Best wide out in college football

The year he came out but he had major injuries

 

Youtube video

 

http://youtu.be/BF5-vkBwbZg

[NewEra]

Thanks for the ultra informative post.