buffalobillsgrl Posted March 9, 2013 Posted March 9, 2013 http://billsmafia.com/2013/03/07/applying-moneyball-to-the-buffalo-bills-free-agency-offense-edition/ http://billsmafia.com/2013/03/08/applying-moneyball-to-the-buffalo-bills-free-agency-defense-edition/ With Free agency just 4 days away and the Bills talking about analytics, I thought that these two blogposts were interesting. They bring up some names that haven't been talked about and show us that just because we can't sign all of the flashy names out there. There are still plenty of not so flashy guys out there that we can afford who could fit in our system nicely.
San Jose Bills Fan Posted March 9, 2013 Posted March 9, 2013 Thanks for posting. Just read the offensive one. Two thoughts: The Rams are a very WR needy team. How is it that they are letting Brandon Gibson hit the open market especially when it's not projected that it'll take a big contract to sign him? There are favorable reviews on the guy and the Rams could lose Amendola. You'd think they'd overpay a bit to retain Gibson. I could definitely see Levitre leaving and Rhinehart ascending to the starting lineup.
San Jose Bills Fan Posted March 9, 2013 Posted March 9, 2013 On the defensive side, these advanced stats from ProFootballFocus that were cited were kind of interesting: Kyle Moore generated 32 quarterback pressures (sacks, hits, hurries) despite being asked to rush the passer 283 times. His 8.8 “Pass Rush Productivity” grade, related to the amount of pressures per pass rushing snap, ranked Moore as the 25th best pass rushing 4-3 defensive end in the National Football League. Moore would be a situational player, because while an effective pass rusher, he struggled mightily against the run. His -7.1 ProFootballFocus grade in that department graded him 55th out of a possible 62 4-3 defensive ends in terms of run support.
NoSaint Posted March 9, 2013 Posted March 9, 2013 How many 43 teams does it qualify? Like 15 with 4 players roughly at end for each? 25th as his strong point isn't that great if so
boyst Posted March 9, 2013 Posted March 9, 2013 Anyone with more time and willpower then me feel like adding up all those $$$??
buffalobillsgrl Posted March 9, 2013 Author Posted March 9, 2013 (edited) Anyone with more time and willpower then me feel like adding up all those $$$?? haha no not really i will ask the person who wrote those tho i am sure he knows. Also i think you could only come up with an estimate because u never know how contracts would be structured from yr to yr within multi yrs Edited March 9, 2013 by buffalobillsgrl
boyst Posted March 9, 2013 Posted March 9, 2013 Screw it I did it on excel quick, just figuring out that each contract is paid out fractionally perfect, example: Moore $6.24mm for 3 years would be $2.083mm. Survey says: $24.575mm. I think we could pull it off if Fitz restructured, we do not sign Byrd, and all those re-signings were for free.
Dibs Posted March 9, 2013 Posted March 9, 2013 (edited) http://billsmafia.co...ffense-edition/ http://billsmafia.co...efense-edition/ With Free agency just 4 days away and the Bills talking about analytics, I thought that these two blogposts were interesting. They bring up some names that haven't been talked about and show us that just because we can't sign all of the flashy names out there. There are still plenty of not so flashy guys out there that we can afford who could fit in our system nicely. I think that the analytics used in the Baseball "moneyball" concept is only marginally useful when applied to Football. I'll preface my comments by saying that I have very little knowledge of Baseball, so the terminology I use will be non-standard/incorrect.....and it is possible that the basis for my view is wrong(if so, somebody can correct me).......but I have seen the movie so I have a base understanding(I think) of how "moneyball" works. Baseball players can be individually rated based upon base hitting statistics. Their individual performance is not affected by the rest of the team they are playing with. It is a relatively simple process then to divide those individual statistics by the amount of money they command, to see if they are of good or bad value. Football players cannot however be rated in such a manner. Every statistic that a Football player has(apart from Punter/Kicker) is intrinsically linked to their fellow teammates and the system and style of the Football that their team is employing, as well as overall coaching(particularly what plays are called & when). (I will go into examples of what I mean here if anybody wants.....I am figuring however that it is obvious, so I won't at this point waste paragraphs explaining the concept.) IMO, the ability of scouts/coaches etc in Football to evaluate the individual talent of players is paramount. Only after a successful individual "by eye" evaluation has been made can one then attempt to factor in whether a player is worth "X" dollars. Further complicating the issue is that there is no(or very vague at best) direct statistical correlation to enable one to ascertain what skill level or player position is worth what percent of the limited cap dollars to a team. For me, analytics could be an extremely useful tool in the NFL.....but in many various areas....not so much in the manner that it is used for in Baseball. Edited March 9, 2013 by Dibs
Dean Cain Posted March 9, 2013 Posted March 9, 2013 Why would the Bills use actual data and thought. I like the blindfold dart board approach of the past 13 years!
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 9, 2013 Posted March 9, 2013 How many 43 teams does it qualify? Like 15 with 4 players roughly at end for each? 25th as his strong point isn't that great if so If I'm reading it right,25th out 62 4-3 DEs. It says "55th out of a possible 62 4-3 defensive ends in terms of run support." So 25th is sort average-above average. 55 out of 62 is "sucks"
BuckeyeBill Posted March 9, 2013 Posted March 9, 2013 Love Bills Mafia. Great articles! Thanks for posting.
buffalobillsgrl Posted March 9, 2013 Author Posted March 9, 2013 Love Bills Mafia. Great articles! Thanks for posting. me too it is tattooed on my foot lol a lot of good smart football fans
HamSandwhich Posted March 15, 2013 Posted March 15, 2013 IMO Manny Lawson fits the Bill for the "moneyball" type player. Under the radar player but he's getting rave reviews. Can cover, can play the run, and in a 3-4 D, Takeo think's he can get after the QB. Not that Takeo is an expert but he knows more than us anyway. I think this is why we're not big players in FA's. We're going to be pick up players that will be seen as scubs by most on these boards. However, it will be based on the metrix of moneyball if Russ is to be believed, and hopefully it will work. I, for one, am not going to panic about the FA pickups or lack thereof, because we really have no idea what way this regime is going. I'm pretty excited to see what they have come September.
NoSaint Posted March 15, 2013 Posted March 15, 2013 If I'm reading it right,25th out 62 4-3 DEs. It says "55th out of a possible 62 4-3 defensive ends in terms of run support." So 25th is sort average-above average. 55 out of 62 is "sucks" But 25th when 30 guys would be starters wouldn't be above average, or even average That's kind of what I was getting at with not that many teams run 43. 25th would say his strongest point is at the very bottom cusp of guys that should he on the field primarily for their teams. Kind if like saying fitz ranked 25th would be slightly above average for a stat 60 qbs qualify for ranking in
HamSandwhich Posted March 15, 2013 Posted March 15, 2013 I really think this "moneyball" has more to it than people give it credit. It's the reason why we're not going after big time FA's and seemingly not bringing anyobdy in. (though we don't know for sure)
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