CodeMonkey Posted March 8, 2013 Posted March 8, 2013 (edited) Exactly...This decision is as much about future Cap implications as it is present ones...Like I heard yesterday on the radio, re-structure is probably the wrong way to phrase this thing...I imagine the Bills are seeking a major pay cut that will allow them to cut Fitz with MUCH less Cap consequence in 2014, or it's not even worth it...Just cut him now and get it over with...The team is clearly in a mini-rebuild...They are looking towards a young QB of the future which means growing pains usually...This team is not ready to win now...I just don't feel the hit this year is that bad when you consider they will be on the hook for nothing in 2014...No one penny... It was a bad deal...Take the medicine now and move on...That's just my opinion... I hadn't realized keeping his contract had 2014 cap implications. That certainly complicates things now doesn't it.. Buddy really did screw the pooch didn't he. Edited March 8, 2013 by CodeMonkey
BillsVet Posted March 8, 2013 Posted March 8, 2013 Exactly...This decision is as much about future Cap implications as it is present ones...Like I heard yesterday on the radio, re-structure is probably the wrong way to phrase this thing...I imagine the Bills are seeking a major pay cut that will allow them to cut Fitz with MUCH less Cap consequence in 2014, or it's not even worth it...Just cut him now and get it over with...The team is clearly in a mini-rebuild...They are looking towards a young QB of the future which means growing pains usually...This team is not ready to win now...I just don't feel the hit this year is that bad when you consider they will be on the hook for nothing in 2014...No one penny... It was a bad deal...Take the medicine now and move on...That's just my opinion... But can they do this in a year where they are clearly rebuilding? Resources are clearly limited and let's face it, they're closer to a roster resembling 2010 than anything else. UFA dollars being what they are, the team has ~25M to work with starting Tuesday. I've got to believe that while Nix, Marrone, Whaley, et al. know Fitzpatrick isn't the answer, they'd prefer to keep him on the roster with the cap hit rather than cut him and pay the price. Hard to believe a contract signed in mid-season 2011 is so much a burden during the 2013 off-season.
Cash Posted March 8, 2013 Posted March 8, 2013 I got my number for Fitz based on estimated market value. Right now, he's a bottom tier starting QB. If he's cut, he immediately becomes one of the top back up QBs. The going rate for good backups is at least $3 mil per year on a 2-3 year deal, with a good portion upfront. I see a contract structured at $4-5million in 2013, $2 mil in 2014 and $3 mil in 2015. That's how I get to the $5 million figure in 2013. The more this drags out, the more I'm convinced that Bills still owe him under the 2011 contract redo. That's why the Bills haven't been more aggressive and why he can more easily stand pat. Your estimate might be right, I just tend to think he'll be paid closer to what T-Jack got last year. Their career numbers and records as starters are roughly comparable. We'll see. Or maybe we won't, per your point about unpaid guaranteed money. That's certainly a possibility, and if it's true that there's still guaranteed money left on his deal, I'll change my opinion on Fitz's contract. I had always defended the contract (though not necessarily the player), because I had been under the impression that it was lower-tier starter money with no heavy penalties to cutting him after 2012. But if he essentially can't be cut without hamstringing the Bills, then it's a terrible deal and the Bills look even more foolish. You have neglected the future implications of Fitz's contract. It all comes down to the cap figures. If we keep Fitz, we are up for a 10.45m cap hit this year......and he will be on the roster for 2014. Cutting him next year(2014), he will have a dead money cap hit of 7m. Does the team then make the same decision next year? If so, he will have a 10.55m cap hit in 2014......and then on the roster for 2105. Cutting him in 2015, he will have a dead money cap hit of 4m. Factoring in a backup contract, it is possible that TJ shows enough to be the main backup. That is only 1.75m. For the sake of argument however, I will allow 4m/year for a replacement backup for Fitz(which is actually a relatively high number for a backup QB). The cap figuring will work like this: Over the next 2 years. If we cut him now......we have a 10m dead money cap hit.....plus 4m for a replacement backup QB.....plus another 4m for a replacement in 2014. = 18m If we cut him next year.....we have a 10.45m cap hit....plus 7m dead money cap hit....plus 4m for a replacement backup QB in 2014. = 21.45m If he doesn't take a pay cut.....I see no reason why a team looking to replace him as starter would be willing to keep hindering themselves via the cap by not simply cutting him. Very good breakdown! I intentionally neglected the future cap implications, for 2 reasons: First and foremost, most businesses, including NFL teams, are very short-sighted in their financial/accounting concerns. They're typically focused on what the balance sheet looks like for the next year, maybe 18 months at most. For NFL teams specifically, there's the added pressure of fielding a winner THIS YEAR, with no guarantee of continued employment next year. Tough to say exactly how short-sighted the Bills are in this respect. On one hand, Marrone just started, and head coaches are almost always given multiple years to show something. (Cam Cameron got fired after going 1-15 his first year, but I can't think of any other "1 and done" off the top of my head.) But we don't know much input he has into personnel decisions, especially when it comes to contract concerns. If Nix is truly still in charge, as the Bills claim, one would think he's feeling a great deal of "win now" pressure -- the team has been worse under him than it was the previous 3 years, he's on his 2nd head coach, etc. But even Nix has openly admitted that he doesn't handle player contracts -- that's Jim Overdorf. Overdorf, Jeff Littman, and Russ Brandon are the only 3 members of the Buffalo Bills I know of who enjoy significant job security. So all in all, I have no idea who is calling the shots or what that person's mindset is. The second reason was that I didn't have time and didn't want to put in that much effort anyway. So I thank you for your time and effort. I personally agree with you -- I'd rather bite the bullet now and move on, if Fitz won't agree to a restructure that the team can live with. But my point is that the team might not see it that way. Especially if, as GG speculates, there's still guaranteed money left on Fitz's deal. (For the record, even in that scenario, I'd probably still favor cutting Fitz and moving on if he won't restructure. The guaranteed money is a sunk cost. We've seen what Fitz can do, and it's not enough, so let's part ways and get on with trying to find the next guy.)
Maddog69 Posted March 8, 2013 Posted March 8, 2013 I hadn't realized keeping his contract had 2014 cap implications. That certainly complicates things now doesn't it.. Buddy really did screw the pooch didn't he. Buddy doesn't do the contracts. Overdorf does. So, Overdorf screwed the pooch.
Coach Tuesday Posted March 8, 2013 Posted March 8, 2013 Cam Cameron got fired after going 1-15 his first year, but I can't think of any other "1 and done" off the top of my head Mike Mularkey says "hi."
NoSaint Posted March 8, 2013 Posted March 8, 2013 that was my piece. most AP stories espn posts on its websites includes a standing feature profiling their own writers. that's their perogative, and i'm fine with that. hey, they help pay my wages. as for a question regarding the bills being handcuffed by the cap. even at $19 million in space, that is not a lot of money. take into account their rookie draft picks and two mid-range free-agent additions and half of that cap space is just about eaten up. let's keep in mind that most teams, including the bills, like to keep space open through the summer and also through the season. and when it comes to spending to the cap, the bills must also keep room if they intend to attempt to extend player contracts during the season. jw structure will matter a lot in any conversation as well, and you hate to kick the can down the line with regards to accounting tricks, but you can do A LOT with 20m, if you are motivated to get your guys. itll be a matter of if levitre is considered a good value, not a matter of if we can afford him at this point if you ask me.
billsfan_34 Posted March 8, 2013 Posted March 8, 2013 Interesting article http://espn.go.com/n...ck-andy-levitre Dysfunctional = Bills = 14 season no play offs
Cash Posted March 8, 2013 Posted March 8, 2013 Mike Mularkey says "hi." Ah, good one. And that was a fairly unique scenario, in that the ownership of the franchise had just changed hands, but the new owner allowed the old GM to hire a new coach. Usually new owners install their own GMs in place (at least when the team is bad, a la Jax), who then put their own HCs in place. Once Gene Smith was fired, it was no surprise that Mularkey was on his way afterwards.
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