Nix not sure on levitre or fitz

[Simon]

Can I have your shirt?

Certainly.

But I'm not sure if you have the cheekbones to pull of my mad style...

[TheBrownBear]

You don't break the bank for a guard.

[Captain Hindsight]

OK, so if your boss came up to you and asked you to take a paycut to make room for another position in your division, you would have no problem doing so? Don't be a hypocrite.

Seriously, these guys get one shot at a big pay day. Don't tell me you wouldn't

[atlbillsfan1975]

Well it's easy to throw stones now. What would you have done differently? If your ask me Fitz is being a bit of a prick to the only GM who thought he was worth paying.

 

PTR

If this is the case, which i am not sure it is. Then i can not believe anyone who is a Fitz supporter will stay on the band wagon for long.

 

I mean if Levitre gets signed somewhere else and it is leaked that the Bills would have signed him if Fitz had restructered. Wow, i will be pissed as hell. It would also say Fitz is not dumb. He realizes he will never get another deal anywhere near the one he has, because he doesn't deserve it.

[bigK14094]

OK, Nix has a commitment by contract to Fitz for 2013, not much to be save. And Fitz, not being an A or even a B rated quarterback....more like a C+/B- QB, might as well keep him and let him compete. Now, TJ may not even be a C QB, but is certainlyl no better than Fitz, so whatever happens in 2013, unless a rookie does it, we will not be seeing A play from the QB. I think Chan was saying they could win with Fitz....playing at say a B level. Now, Levetre, that is a different situation. He is good, but not head and shoulders over other available talent. Rheinhart (also unsigned) could be a capable starter, not as flexible as Levetre, but pretty good none the less. Lets say Levetre is an B+ player, very durible (never been to the pro bowl, no A) and can play multiple positions. Rheinhart can play either guard, and not much dropoff when he was in there the past couple of seasons as the line improved. So, I think that the megabuck deal for Levetre will not happen, cheaper good (not great) options exist. And, if Levetre gets the big deal, Rheinhart will go elsewhere where he might get to start.

Edited March 7, 2013 by bigK14094

[Maddog69]

OK, so if your boss came up to you and asked you to take a paycut to make room for another position in your division, you would have no problem doing so? Don't be a hypocrite.

 

Assuming I was ridiculously overpaid for my skillset and assuming I would not be able to find another job that would pay me at my current payrate, then yes I would have to strongly consider accepting a reasonable reduction in pay instead of being forced to accept being fired and having to uproot my young family to take a job in an unknown city.

[CodeMonkey]

Well it's easy to throw stones now. What would you have done differently? If your ask me Fitz is being a bit of a prick to the only GM who thought he was worth paying.

 

PTR

Why in the world would Fitz take a pay cut. Would you? A Marcia type restructure for no less money, sure. But if Nix is asking Fitz to voluntarily take less money and Fitz does not want to, that isn't being a prick. That's being a businessman. Nix can always cut him and pay the guarantee.

 

No one held a gun to Nix's head. He made his own bed and now has to sleep in it..

[Peter]

Why in the world would Fitz take a pay cut. Would you? A Marcia type restructure for no less money, sure. But if Nix is asking Fitz to voluntarily take less money and Fitz does not want to, that isn't being a prick. That's being a businessman. Nix can always cut him and pay the guarantee.

 

No one held a gun to Nix's head. He made his own bed and now has to sleep in it..

 

Fitz the businessman should ask himself whether (1) he will get a better deal elsewhere, and (2) he will start anywhere else.

 

If he really thinks that he can get a better deal elsewhere, he should probably play somewhere else.

 

The fact of the matter is we signed him at the apex of his market value. Unlike some players, he has not played up to his contract. He should be thankful for the millions that he did get and that the Bills did not wait until the end of the 2011 season to sign him.

[GG]

Fitz the businessman should ask himself whether (1) he will get a better deal elsewhere, and (2) he will start anywhere else.

 

If he really thinks that he can get a better deal elsewhere, he should probably play somewhere else.

 

The fact of the matter is we signed him at the apex of his market value. Unlike some players, he has not played up to his contract. He should be thankful for the millions that he did get and that the Bills did not wait until the end of the 2011 season to sign him.

If the Bills keep Fitz this year, he's due about $7.5 million in total compensation, with a $4 mil salary and a $3.5 mil in various bonuses. There's still the question in whether Bills have fully fulfilled their minimum contract obligation.

 

For Fitz, the business reason is the salary portion. He knows that Bills do not want to pay him the full $7.5 mil in '13. But he will probably sign a deal that will pay him about $5 mil in '13 with another team (bonus + salary). So that's the fight. It gets more complicated from Bills' standpoint if they do in fact still owe him some cash on the contract extension.

[Cash]

If the Bills keep Fitz this year, he's due about $7.5 million in total compensation, with a $4 mil salary and a $3.5 mil in various bonuses. There's still the question in whether Bills have fully fulfilled their minimum contract obligation.

 

For Fitz, the business reason is the salary portion. He knows that Bills do not want to pay him the full $7.5 mil in '13. But he will probably sign a deal that will pay him about $5 mil in '13 with another team (bonus + salary). So that's the fight. It gets more complicated from Bills' standpoint if they do in fact still owe him some cash on the contract extension.

 

I respectfully disagree with your estimate of $5 mil 2013 compensation for Free Agent Fitz, but this is fundamentally the right analysis.

 

It's easy to get hung up on the idea that if the Bills cut Fitz outright, they don't "save" any money, but that's not really accurate. The cap hit is about the same whether he's cut or kept on his current deal, but the cash he would actually receive is very different in those two scenarios. For the purpose of this post, I'm assuming that the Bills have fulfilled their minimum salary obligation, as GG puts it -- i.e., paid out all of the guaranteed money in the deal. I'm assuming that because the Buffalo News has reported it as being the case, and also because it makes things much simpler to discuss.

 

Anyway, assuming that's the case, Fitz is looking at about $7.5 mil if he stays on the roster with his existing contract. This would obviously be his first choice. But getting cut would only net him whatever salary + bonus he can get from another team. GG estimates that at about $5 mil, I think it's more like $2-$3 mil, but either way, it's less than what he'd get on his current deal. So if Fitz gets cut, both parties wind up unhappy: The Bills saved about $7.5 mil in real checks they didn't have to write, but don't get any cap room. Fitz has to uproot his family and sees his pay drop significantly.

 

So there's a window for a mutually beneficial compromise. Fitz renegotiates his contract to take less money this year, but still more than he'd get on the open market, and the Bills save cap money in the process. Of course, the more he gets paid, the less happy the Bills are, because that's real money going out the door, and not necessarily enough cap savings to justify it. And the less he gets paid, the unhappier Fitz is, for obvious reasons. Especially if he and/or his agent think that he can get a comparable deal on the open market. So there's no guarantee that both sides can come to an agreement on a renegotiation, but there's absolutely good reasons on both sides to at least try a negotiation.

[CodeMonkey]

Anyway, assuming that's the case, Fitz is looking at about $7.5 mil if he stays on the roster with his existing contract. This would obviously be his first choice. But getting cut would only net him whatever salary + bonus he can get from another team. GG estimates that at about $5 mil, I think it's more like $2-$3 mil, but either way, it's less than what he'd get on his current deal. So if Fitz gets cut, both parties wind up unhappy: The Bills saved about $7.5 mil in real checks they didn't have to write, but don't get any cap room. Fitz has to uproot his family and sees his pay drop significantly.

If the contract stands pat and Fitz stays on the team, cap room is unchanged but the Bills have one less player to sign and the Bills shell out the $7.5 mil in cash money. That would seem a better option for the Bills (and obviously Fitz, but maybe not Mr. Wilson) than cutting Fitz and having to sign yet another additional player without netting any cap space. Maybe team Fitz is seeing this as the desired outcome and think they have Nix between a rock and a hard place..

Edited March 7, 2013 by CodeMonkey

[GG]

I respectfully disagree with your estimate of $5 mil 2013 compensation for Free Agent Fitz, but this is fundamentally the right analysis.

 

It's easy to get hung up on the idea that if the Bills cut Fitz outright, they don't "save" any money, but that's not really accurate. The cap hit is about the same whether he's cut or kept on his current deal, but the cash he would actually receive is very different in those two scenarios. For the purpose of this post, I'm assuming that the Bills have fulfilled their minimum salary obligation, as GG puts it -- i.e., paid out all of the guaranteed money in the deal. I'm assuming that because the Buffalo News has reported it as being the case, and also because it makes things much simpler to discuss.

 

Anyway, assuming that's the case, Fitz is looking at about $7.5 mil if he stays on the roster with his existing contract. This would obviously be his first choice. But getting cut would only net him whatever salary + bonus he can get from another team. GG estimates that at about $5 mil, I think it's more like $2-$3 mil, but either way, it's less than what he'd get on his current deal. So if Fitz gets cut, both parties wind up unhappy: The Bills saved about $7.5 mil in real checks they didn't have to write, but don't get any cap room. Fitz has to uproot his family and sees his pay drop significantly.

 

So there's a window for a mutually beneficial compromise. Fitz renegotiates his contract to take less money this year, but still more than he'd get on the open market, and the Bills save cap money in the process. Of course, the more he gets paid, the less happy the Bills are, because that's real money going out the door, and not necessarily enough cap savings to justify it. And the less he gets paid, the unhappier Fitz is, for obvious reasons. Especially if he and/or his agent think that he can get a comparable deal on the open market. So there's no guarantee that both sides can come to an agreement on a renegotiation, but there's absolutely good reasons on both sides to at least try a negotiation.

 

I got my number for Fitz based on estimated market value. Right now, he's a bottom tier starting QB. If he's cut, he immediately becomes one of the top back up QBs. The going rate for good backups is at least $3 mil per year on a 2-3 year deal, with a good portion upfront. I see a contract structured at $4-5million in 2013, $2 mil in 2014 and $3 mil in 2015. That's how I get to the $5 million figure in 2013.

 

The more this drags out, the more I'm convinced that Bills still owe him under the 2011 contract redo. That's why the Bills haven't been more aggressive and why he can more easily stand pat.

[mattsox]

At least we have a plan!

 

Well Golly!!!

[Rockinon]

The bills might just decide to bite the cap bullett this year and get rid of Fitz.......it might happen.

 

That will strap us as far as free agent aquisitions....the draft will become very important.

Or not. Other than message board material and postulating sports writers suggesting that Fitz must restructure or be cut, I have heard absolutely nothing that suggests either. Fitz is not going anywhere IMHO. I know people really want a "Franchise QB" but at this stage, I'm thinking the Bills will bring in a young prospect to compete and nothing more. The FO will do what it can to beef up other areas of need and there will not be a clear cut Franchise guy at QB this year. I don't see Geno Smith still being there at 8. Maybe Barkley. Not sure the Bills will think there is enough value for a QB at 8. Pass rusher, OT, DT or WR seem to be the most likely scenarios at #8.

 

Of course, no one is knocking on my door wanting to hire me to read tea leaves for them either....so what do I know.

[boyst]

On another note, James Walker needs to do his own work. This is Johns story then they put Walkers face on it. Copy and paste gets you a job at ESPN.

[CodeMonkey]

Or not. Other than message board material and postulating sports writers suggesting that Fitz must restructure or be cut, I have heard absolutely nothing that suggests either. Fitz is not going anywhere IMHO. I know people really want a "Franchise QB" but at this stage, I'm thinking the Bills will bring in a young prospect to compete and nothing more. The FO will do what it can to beef up other areas of need and there will not be a clear cut Franchise guy at QB this year. I don't see Geno Smith still being there at 8. Maybe Barkley. Not sure the Bills will think there is enough value for a QB at 8. Pass rusher, OT, DT or WR seem to be the most likely scenarios at #8.

 

Of course, no one is knocking on my door wanting to hire me to read tea leaves for them either....so what do I know.

I agree with you. If cutting Fitz freed a bunch of cap space then maybe. But freeing no cap space and at the same time creating another position to fill tells me Fitz is on the team restructure or not.

 

And you know as much as anyone else here.

[RealityCheck]

I can't imagine the Bills paying Fitz over 7 million dollars in REAL money knowing that he is not the guy at this point. If it were my money I would cut him. This year's cap hit is a function of dead cap money, not real money. P*****g millions of dollars of real cash away again on Fitz is a complete waste. I'd rather save 7 million and have a fresh start at the QB position than pay the money to have another 6-10 season and be out of range for a top QB next year if this years draft doesn't cut it.

[Dibs]

If the contract stands pat and Fitz stays on the team, cap room is unchanged but the Bills have one less player to sign and the Bills shell out the $7.5 mil in cash money. That would seem a better option for the Bills (and obviously Fitz, but maybe not Mr. Wilson) than cutting Fitz and having to sign yet another additional player without netting any cap space. Maybe team Fitz is seeing this as the desired outcome and think they have Nix between a rock and a hard place..

 

You have neglected the future implications of Fitz's contract. It all comes down to the cap figures.

 

If we keep Fitz, we are up for a 10.45m cap hit this year......and he will be on the roster for 2014.

Cutting him next year(2014), he will have a dead money cap hit of 7m.

 

Does the team then make the same decision next year?

If so, he will have a 10.55m cap hit in 2014......and then on the roster for 2105.

Cutting him in 2015, he will have a dead money cap hit of 4m.

 

Factoring in a backup contract, it is possible that TJ shows enough to be the main backup. That is only 1.75m. For the sake of argument however, I will allow 4m/year for a replacement backup for Fitz(which is actually a relatively high number for a backup QB).

 

The cap figuring will work like this:

Over the next 2 years.

If we cut him now......we have a 10m dead money cap hit.....plus 4m for a replacement backup QB.....plus another 4m for a replacement in 2014.

= 18m

 

If we cut him next year.....we have a 10.45m cap hit....plus 7m dead money cap hit....plus 4m for a replacement backup QB in 2014.

= 21.45m

 

 

If he doesn't take a pay cut.....I see no reason why a team looking to replace him as starter would be willing to keep hindering themselves via the cap by not simply cutting him.

Edited March 8, 2013 by Dibs

[KOKBILLS]

You have neglected the future implications of Fitz's contract. It all comes down to the cap figures.

 

If we keep Fitz, we are up for a 10.45m cap hit this year......and he will be on the roster for 2014.

Cutting him next year(2014), he will have a dead money cap hit of 7m.

 

Does the team then make the same decision next year?

If so, he will have a 10.55m cap hit in 2014......and then on the roster for 2105.

Cutting him in 2015, he will have a dead money cap hit of 4m.

 

Factoring in a backup contract, it is possible that TJ shows enough to be the main backup. That is only 1.75m. For the sake of argument however, I will allow 4m/year for a replacement backup for Fitz(which is actually a relatively high number for a backup QB).

 

The cap figuring will work like this:

Over the next 2 years.

If we cut him now......we have a 10m dead money cap hit.....plus 4m for a replacement backup QB.....plus another 4m for a replacement in 2014.

= 18m

 

If we cut him next year.....we have a 10.45m cap hit....plus 7m dead money cap hit....plus 4m for a replacement backup QB in 2014.

= 21.45m

 

 

If he doesn't take a pay cut.....I see no reason why a team looking to replace him as starter would be willing to keep hindering themselves via the cap by not simply cutting him.

 

Exactly...This decision is as much about future Cap implications as it is present ones...Like I heard yesterday on the radio, re-structure is probably the wrong way to phrase this thing...I imagine the Bills are seeking a major pay cut that will allow them to cut Fitz with MUCH less Cap consequence in 2014, or it's not even worth it...Just cut him now and get it over with...The team is clearly in a mini-rebuild...They are looking towards a young QB of the future which means growing pains usually...This team is not ready to win now...I just don't feel the hit this year is that bad when you consider they will be on the hook for nothing in 2014...No one penny...

 

It was a bad deal...Take the medicine now and move on...That's just my opinion...

[ganesh]

Assuming I was ridiculously overpaid for my skillset and assuming I would not be able to find another job that would pay me at my current payrate, then yes I would have to strongly consider accepting a reasonable reduction in pay instead of being forced to accept being fired and having to uproot my young family to take a job in an unknown city.

 

The key is "assuming I would not be able to find another job that would pay me at my current rate". I don't believe Fitz is thinking that he cannot be a starter in this league besides in Buffalo. I am sure he believes he could start (besides Buffalo) for Arizona, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Oakland etc. And even if he were to take a substantial pay cut to be a backup, may be he wants to be a backup on a super-bowl bound team like Atlanta or Denver or may be he wants to be a backup on a team like Philadelphia whose starting QB is injury prone and likely to miss games.

Finally, if you were not just asked to take a pay cut, but also asked to demote yourself in your role in the company, I highly doubt people will stay in that job forever.