Dibs Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Oh, I understand what a crapshoot is. How many potential results do you have with the roll of the dice, dibs? Are dice results subjective the way players vary in productivity? Determinations of which players to select are made based on a range of criteria. They are educated guesses as opposed to random results. It is a ridiculous analogy and usually used in an attempt to deflect criticism or make failure look like nothing more than an uncontrollable twist of fate. 2 dice? 11 But nobody is syaing, I am not saying & have never said that they are not educated guesses.....in fact, that's exactly what I call them. Again I say that you don't seem to understand why people call it a crap shoot. To quibble over the fact that dice are fixed in their determination while players are.....for the use of a better word, random in their determination....is irrelevant. What is relevant is that to all the people who see a top prospect & say "He is a sure thing", these people should understand that there is no sure thing.....that through all of the random elements(lots of them), that player may end up on the scrap heap after 1 year.....they may become a journeyman type player.....they may become a solid starter....an occasional probowler....an all-pro.....or a HOFer...............and in fact, even with the "sure thing" player, they are more likely to never become even a solid starter. The randomness of the end result is like rolling 2 dice(though obviously not exactly the same). You roll your dice.....and hope the number that comes up is a good one. It speaks more so to the volatility of the league and the draft than the meaninglessness of draft evaluation. Players get hurt, are busts, traded or leave through free agency. I'm not sure that anybody in this thread even implied that draft evaluation is meaningless.....I'll just check....nope, can't find any. What people were saying was that after all of the meaningful evaluation which regularly & correctly ascertains nearly all of the best prospects, it becomes a random proposition as to whether those prospects "hit" or "miss" (your 2nd sentence). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KollegeStudnet Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 No 1st rounder...traded it for Losman the previous year. Drafted Roscoe Parrish in the 2nd (55 overall) ahead of Vincent Jackson. I'm kind drunk, but there should be a post about all the players who the Bills drafted ahead of "who we should've drafted"...I bet there is some goodies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dragonborn10 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Always trade down even if that means the pick you get is for next year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Just in Atlanta Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I don't think there should even be any question over whether or not we choose a QB in the first. Enough already. Over a decade of madness. I'm with C.Bisquit: Pick until we land a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magox Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Just wanted to point something out as we approach the 2013 draft. You're going to hear a lot about how certain guys are "8-10 year starters" etc. Well, just remember that nobody has a clue what they're talking about in this regard. With today's trade of Alex Smith, I decided to take a look at the 2005 draft, as it was held 8 years ago. Here's what I found... - Out of 32 first-round picks, only 8 are still with their remaining teams: Demarcus Ware - Dal (starter) Thomas Davis - Car (starter) Derrick Johnson - KC (starter) Marcus Spears - Dal (backup) Aaron Rodgers - GB (starter) Roddy White - Atl (starter) Heath Miller - Pit (starter) Logan Mankins - NE (starter) - Not a single top 10 pick is still on the team that drafted them - Out of 32 second-round picks, only 3 are still with their original teams: Michael Roos - Ten (starter) Corey Webster - NYG (starter) Jonathan Babineaux - Atl (starter) So just keep in mind that--as we analyze prospects and try to determine who successfully adds talent that will help in the long-term--nobody really knows what the results will be years from now. On the flip side, to expand on this post, out of the teams that were able to draft a player that remained on their teams, 67% of those teams are consistent playoff teams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted February 28, 2013 Author Share Posted February 28, 2013 I think some folks are missing the point of my original post...the idea that there's no way to know who will be those 8-10 year guys, despite what we may hear leading up to the draft. I'm well aware that the average career is far less than 8 years; that's not the point. If I'm an NFL GM, I'm not looking to draft a guy with an average career, I'm looking to draft an 8-10 year stud. That's what GMs get paid to do. 2 dice? 11 But nobody is syaing, I am not saying & have never said that they are not educated guesses.....in fact, that's exactly what I call them. Again I say that you don't seem to understand why people call it a crap shoot. To quibble over the fact that dice are fixed in their determination while players are.....for the use of a better word, random in their determination....is irrelevant. What is relevant is that to all the people who see a top prospect & say "He is a sure thing", these people should understand that there is no sure thing.....that through all of the random elements(lots of them), that player may end up on the scrap heap after 1 year.....they may become a journeyman type player.....they may become a solid starter....an occasional probowler....an all-pro.....or a HOFer...............and in fact, even with the "sure thing" player, they are more likely to never become even a solid starter. The randomness of the end result is like rolling 2 dice(though obviously not exactly the same). You roll your dice.....and hope the number that comes up is a good one. I'm not sure that anybody in this thread even implied that draft evaluation is meaningless.....I'll just check....nope, can't find any. What people were saying was that after all of the meaningful evaluation which regularly & correctly ascertains nearly all of the best prospects, it becomes a random proposition as to whether those prospects "hit" or "miss" (your 2nd sentence). Yes, the bolded is the point. Always trade down even if that means the pick you get is for next year... Couldn't disagree more. Always take the player you like, otherwise you risk losing the player you like, or in the case of the Rams last season, passing on an all-pro talent like RG3. Remember, you're picking in the top 10 for a reason, so that you can get a top 10 talent...don't pass it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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