We still have way too many holes

[Dibs]

The reality is that the Bills have not been hitting on enough draft picks over the last three years.

 

You seem to be under two common misconceptions here.

 

Firstly, the misconception that new players to the NFL(rookies) will usually show their worth in their 1st(or 2nd) season.

 

Looking at our last 4 drafts.....

Wood, Levitre, Byrd, Spiller.....all have shown themselves to be solid - great.

 

Gilmore, Glenn, Bradham, Darius, Sheppard.....all started a full season in 2012.....all could easily become solid - great starters. Gilmore & Glenn potentially very good....Darius in particular could turn it on in 2013 as he is unusually young and DTs often put it together in their 3rd year. Bradham showed regular solid signs of improvement throughout his rookie season.

 

Graham & A Williams....very young.....solid starter could be in their future.

 

Troup & Carrington.....high hopes are still applied to these two.

 

 

Secondly, the misconception that unless you have 3+ solid - great starters from each draft that it is somehow under the average.

 

If a team was to draft 2 solid-great players every draft.....in 11 seasons the entire starting team would be solid-great....and one would simply be able to rotate old for new each year.

The reality is that 2 solid+ starters each year is a great result.

 

How have we done in the last 4 seasons?

Byrd, Levitre, Wood, Spiller.....definite.

Gilmore, Glenn,.....likely.

Darius.....good chance to be a star....likely to be minimally solid.

 

Already we are above the curve with 7 players.

[Nitro]

6 draft picks...3 on the "premium" rounds. Need new QB, LB, DB and WR. I expect 1 or 2 mid level free agent signings. Bills have enough young talent to build upon.. Need to see Marrone and staff can maximize their play. The holes you see might be plugged by change of philosophy. We will know once free agency starts March 12th.

[thewildrabbit]

So Cordy Glenn is a bust now? Stevie Johnson?

 

PTR

Glenn is best suited to play guard or RT as he is better blocking straight ahead rather then running the arc, He would be an all pro guard vs an average LT. You will see more of what I mean if they replace Fitz this year.

 

Stevie Johnson is a top 20 WR, just not a top10 guy which is tough to believe considering how much Gailey had Fitz throwing. Johnson might move up into the top ten if the Bills could find another top WR opposite him to take away some coverages.

 

The Bills have been desperate for another WR, and TJ Graham isn't the answer just yet. The Bills tried to sign Robert Meachem (tho I don't know why) last free agency period and failed to obtain him. Then drafted Graham who had only 31 receptions for 322 yards, and was ranked the 137th receiver in yards last year.

 

The Bills WR corps sucks with Johnson being the one sole decent WR on the team. Kinda why the Bills let Jones & Nelson walk this year. Makes you think WTH was Gailey doing with all those 5 WR sets doesn't it.

[jahnyc]

Considering where the Bills were in terms of talent four years ago, they needed to "hit" on their drafts. Wood, Levitre and Byrd in one draft is a very good draft. This was the draft before Nix became GM. Nix's drafts have been average to below average (although it is probably not fair to assign a grade to the 2012 draft). The bottom line is that if we only get seven starters out of four drafts, we will not be making the playoffs.

[Dibs]

Considering where the Bills were in terms of talent four years ago, they needed to "hit" on their drafts. Wood, Levitre and Byrd in one draft is a very good draft. This was the draft before Nix became GM. Nix's drafts have been average to below average (although it is probably not fair to assign a grade to the 2012 draft). The bottom line is that if we only get seven starters out of four drafts, we will not be making the playoffs.

 

Aside from the concept that the 2012 & 2011 drafted players have only had 1 & 2 years experience.....so we cannot assume they will fail......how many draft "hits" would be expected from any given draft in your opinion? How many would a team need to do to be considered above the curve....or below it?

[thewildrabbit]

You seem to be under two common misconceptions here.

 

Firstly, the misconception that new players to the NFL(rookies) will usually show their worth in their 1st(or 2nd) season.

 

Looking at our last 4 drafts.....

Wood, Levitre, Byrd, Spiller.....all have shown themselves to be solid - great.

 

Gilmore, Glenn, Bradham, Darius, Sheppard.....all started a full season in 2012.....all could easily become solid - great starters. Gilmore & Glenn potentially very good....Darius in particular could turn it on in 2013 as he is unusually young and DTs often put it together in their 3rd year. Bradham showed regular solid signs of improvement throughout his rookie season.

 

Graham & A Williams....very young.....solid starter could be in their future.

 

Troup & Carrington.....high hopes are still applied to these two.

 

 

Secondly, the misconception that unless you have 3+ solid - great starters from each draft that it is somehow under the average.

 

If a team was to draft 2 solid-great players every draft.....in 11 seasons the entire starting team would be solid-great....and one would simply be able to rotate old for new each year.

The reality is that 2 solid+ starters each year is a great result.

 

How have we done in the last 4 seasons?

Byrd, Levitre, Wood, Spiller.....definite.

Gilmore, Glenn,.....likely.

Darius.....good chance to be a star....likely to be minimally solid.

 

Already we are above the curve with 7 players.

Nix has been the GM for 3 seasons, Byrd, Wood, Levitre were all Jauron's, along with Aaron Maybin.

 

So now your talking Spiller as the only real super player from the Nix era and he was Gailey's "Water-bug"

 

When you have a team supposedly devoid of talent in 2010 and the new GM only does some patchwork to the O line, and LBer corps while totally neglecting finding a top QB. 2nd WR, top healthy TE. It takes this dolt 3 years to fill a position. So I suspect that 3 years from now the Bills might find a decent QB.

[Dibs]

Nix has been the GM for 3 seasons, Byrd, Wood, Levitre were all Jauron's, along with Aaron Maybin.

 

So now your talking Spiller as the only real super player from the Nix era and he was Gailey's "Water-bug"

 

When you have a team supposedly devoid of talent in 2010 and the new GM only does some patchwork to the O line, and LBer corps while totally neglecting finding a top QB. 2nd WR, top healthy TE. It takes this dolt 3 years to fill a position. So I suspect that 3 years from now the Bills might find a decent QB.

 

You are arguing about issues that I was not discussing. I was discussing the relative success of the 2009-2012 Bills drafts in relation to what might be a realistic standard in the NFL....not rating or grading the GMs/coaches/scouts that were involved in deciding on the players.

 

That being said.....who gives a toss about Aaron Maybin when there were 3 top starters drafted.....with one being a star(2 pro-bowls) and one being considered top 10 in the league?

[....lybob]

QB, CB, RDE, 2 LBs, FS, SS, LG, WR TE- other than that we're good.

[FleaMoulds80]

it isn't that we have too many holes, it is just that we have holes at key positions. If we upgraded MLB, QB, and WR (all important positions), this team would be a world better. That is assuming we keep byrd. If we lose byrd, then that would create a huge hole. But I am just assuming we keep him even if it is a franchise tag.

 

Corner I am not too worried about. I think brooks showed a lot of promise. I wouldn't be surprised if he becomes a solid starter for us this year. Hard to tell though how we look on bother sides of the ball with the new coaching staff. If Fitz stays our QB, I would expect similar production out of the offense.... defense, I am just hoping that all the resources we dumped on that side finally pay off.

 

We have holes in key positions and we have a lot of holes. We have holes at QB, WR, TE, OG (most likely losing Levitre), Safety, Corner, MLB, and OLB. Outside of Gilmore, we have no real depth at the position. Brooks has shown a lot of promise during the preseason but we haven't seen much of him. Aaron Williams and McKelvin are liabilities so I definitely see a need at this position.

[jahnyc]

You are arguing about issues that I was not discussing. I was discussing the relative success of the 2009-2012 Bills drafts in relation to what might be a realistic standard in the NFL....not rating or grading the GMs/coaches/scouts that were involved in deciding on the players.

 

That being said.....who gives a toss about Aaron Maybin when there were 3 top starters drafted.....with one being a star(2 pro-bowls) and one being considered top 10 in the league?

 

As I noted above, 2009 was a very good draft, but the 2010 and 2011 drafts were not, at least so far. Too early to tell about 2012. The reality in today's NFL is that you need first and second year players to contribute immediately for overall team success. Players drafted outside of the first round will be free agents after four years. There were way too many misses in 2010 and 2011, including Troup and Williams. Spiller is the only strong pick from these drafts. Even Darreus underperformed last year (although I understand that this could be due in part to the difficult family matters he needed to deal with last year).

[NewEra]

With the draft and Fa coming up soon.. If the bills make a few more cuts they should have around 30+mil under the cap...it is possible to fill these holes it wont be easy but it can be done....we can pick up a few veterans at LB in fa..( Calvin pace and bartt Scott) and in the draft maybe go with WR C patterson from Tennesee at #8 QB Tyler wilson from arkansa at #41..LB khaseem greene from Rutgers...4th rd Chase thomas LB stanford...5th rd WR Cobi hamilton Arkansa......a draft like this could fill in the holes...ehhh I dont know but thats my best guess

 

No chance Greene is there in rd 3. Zero. Every player you named, except Patterson will likely be drafted a round earlier than you predict. Living in Lala land

Edited February 25, 2013 by NewEra

[tonyjustbcuz]

I hope the Bills will be more competitive next year, but we have significant needs at LB, WR, TE and CB (I am ignoring QB for this post, which is probably the biggest need of all).

 

LB: Cutting Barnett leaves us with Sheppard and Bradham. Not sure whether either is starting caliber. I don't think there is a reserve linebacker on the roster who can step up to a starting role. The Bills need at least one new starter, assuming that the team stays with Sheppard and Bradham and Bills do not switch to a 3-4 , in which case we will need two new starters. The current group of LBs could be the worst in the NFL.

 

WR: After SJ, there are no starting caliber WRs on the roster. I have my doubts as to whether Graham will develop. Need at least a second starting wide receiver opposite Stevie and likely a third wide receiver (in the slot, with Nelson not coming back). Another poor unit that ranks among the NFL's worst.

 

TE: I like Chandler, but he may not be ready to start the season. Need a starting caliber TE.

 

CB: Need a starter opposite Gilmore, particularly if McKelvin signs with another team. Need to see if Brooks can develop. I have no hope that Williams will become a solid CB, and I expect him to be shifted to safety. Rogers played poorly last year and we need an upgrade at the nickel and dime CB.

 

How does this all get fixed this offseason? We can't count on rookies filling all of these spots, maybe our first and second round picks will be able to step in, but who knows? What I find disturbing is that there are not obvious choices currently on the roster to fill these spots. Throw in the uncertainty at the QB position and the possibility that Levitre will not be re-signed, and you have a team that still seems far away in year four of the most recent rebuild.

 

This organization still is wishy-washy in some of the personnel decisions that they make! There is a reason why Detroit can only get so good and then and then quickly fall back to where they normally are. There is a reason that Cleveland is a cellar dwellar and the Bills as well. There is a reason why Belicheck can select 28-32 most years and outdraft us and select players of the caliber of Brady and Grownkowski. There is a reason why for years Indy was one of the top teams in the NFL and had one bad season, and they are right back into form.

 

Good organizations are shrewd and make smart maneuvers. We are already in trouble for the next year or more by our own doing! Yes, there is a salary cap, and salary hits for resigning your veterans etc...but if you are going to release some of your players to make room in salary cap, you better not release any that are some of the leading players you have at a given position when you already are short on talent, and deficient in player depth at most positions! The Bills released a decent veteran in George Wilson, and also released Nick Barnett at LB. The Bills were already hurting at the LB positon and by releasing Barnett they created another hole. Instead of the overall team improving and gradually ciphering out undesirable players we now have to replace the holes that was self-created by utilizing free agency and the draft. Instead of bettering ourselves drastically at several key positons we are going to find ourselves selecting or signing multiple LB's, and a safety, and filling other areas of self inflicted needs!

 

The problem is when you already had a deficiency at QB, WR, TE, CB, etc....how are you going to build in those areas by taking more bites into your piece of swiss cheese in the Bills? Sure you can get your QB etc...in the draft and overpay like everyone does in free agency, but now you just created bigger cap problems than you have which will make it further difficult to sign players like Jairus Byrd, and Levitre among others. I really don't like the way the Bills are handling things and don't be surprised if they let Leodis McKelvin walk as well.

 

Instead of taking the best player on the board what the Bills will cause by their actions to date is the scenario of having to move down in the draft to select players that will demand less costly contracts. That will play into the positional selection as well as to where they want to select if a team agrees to trade where they select in the draft. What I see from the Bills is trading down from the 8th pick to somewhere around 17-21st in the first round. I think they will go defense with that first pick and hope that the QB that is on their board survives until the second round. I'm not sure what is proper trade value for that trade, but I'm guessing it would be an extra pick in the second or third round.

 

When you are making all these extra cuts by releasing or not resigning players you need more picks, therefore I feel that this will inspire the Bills to go for quantity of picks over quality or best opportunities. This accomplishes two things in Management's eyes. 1. More reasonable contracts on lower picks in the first round and possibly in the second if they trade down twice? 2. More selections to fill some of the gaping holes that the Bills created on their roster in the past couple of weeks.

 

So getting back to the Bills....Who is really running the show? Brandon??? He's not a football guy! What does J. Overdorf do? What is Whaley's input while Buddy is still here? It sounds to me as if things are still in disarray and I think after the draft when we all feel like it's Christmas morning and we are ready to go, and soon after when training camp, ota's , and all that stuff closing in...it is easy to think...Hey, they did this and that...and look at the schedule...hmmm maybe this is the year they will put it all together and go 10-6 !!! But, like most every year...okay every year!!! It'll be more like 4-12, 5-11, 6-10, 7-9 , but I definitely would say anything more optimistic is just kidding yourself! I think 5-11 is the most accurate prediction! Now I hope they convince me otherwise....but like I said, Good teams are good for a reason, and that reason is that they have people at the top of their hierarchy making solid decisions year in and year out! San Diego, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, New England, Indianapolis, and then you have your Bills, Lions, Browns, etc...that drafts near the top most years, but haven't a clue!!!! We passed up Grankowski, Hali Ngnata, Brian Cushing, Bryan Orakapo, Colin Kaepernick, Russel Wilson, and many other Pro Bowl Caliber players that went to lower seeded teams! So don't even tell me that Buddy Nix is a great talent evaluator!

[Dibs]

....There is a reason why for years Indy was one of the top teams in the NFL and had one bad season, and they are right back into form....

 

Having a star QB(Manning).....having him get injured....and then getting lucky with the draft netting another star QB(Luck).

 

Apart from last draft, the Colts have been drafting terribly for years.....leaving them with a team that has less overall talent than we do.

[Beerball]

"We still have too many holes."

 

Now that's a thread title that would be more appropriate at least a couple of days after Free Agency has started.

 

Of course we "still" have too many holes.....we have had no opportunity to fill any yet.

The team doesn't need to create additional holes.

[Harveyj001]

All teams have holes. Good qb play covers a lot of sins.

 

+1, it is interesting to listen to all of the teams fans complain on Sirius NFL about filling their holes...

[8-8 Forever?]

I hope the Bills will be more competitive next year, but we have significant needs at LB, WR, TE and CB (I am ignoring QB for this post, which is probably the biggest need of all).

 

LB: Cutting Barnett leaves us with Sheppard and Bradham. Not sure whether either is starting caliber. I don't think there is a reserve linebacker on the roster who can step up to a starting role. The Bills need at least one new starter, assuming that the team stays with Sheppard and Bradham and Bills do not switch to a 3-4 , in which case we will need two new starters. The current group of LBs could be the worst in the NFL.

 

WR: After SJ, there are no starting caliber WRs on the roster. I have my doubts as to whether Graham will develop. Need at least a second starting wide receiver opposite Stevie and likely a third wide receiver (in the slot, with Nelson not coming back). Another poor unit that ranks among the NFL's worst.

 

TE: I like Chandler, but he may not be ready to start the season. Need a starting caliber TE.

 

CB: Need a starter opposite Gilmore, particularly if McKelvin signs with another team. Need to see if Brooks can develop. I have no hope that Williams will become a solid CB, and I expect him to be shifted to safety. Rogers played poorly last year and we need an upgrade at the nickel and dime CB.

 

How does this all get fixed this offseason? We can't count on rookies filling all of these spots, maybe our first and second round picks will be able to step in, but who knows? What I find disturbing is that there are not obvious choices currently on the roster to fill these spots. Throw in the uncertainty at the QB position and the possibility that Levitre will not be re-signed, and you have a team that still seems far away in year four of the most recent rebuild.

Looks like another dismal season. We have good front lines and RBs and that is the way to start a team, but how will be score points?/

[BillsWatch]

I agree with all the above. If we let either Byrd or Levitre go, we are creating another gaping hole, and once again letting what is little of our talent walk.

 

Bills may not have a choice to keep both of them.

I know you think they should be able to shackle them both to Buffalo but the NFLPA objects to that.

 

If either Byrd or Levitre go, it creates another gaping hole, and once again free agency allows what is little of our talent walk is more correct but light your pitchfork and head to castle to kill the monster.

[CodeMonkey]

Apart from last draft, the Colts have been drafting terribly for years.....leaving them with a team that has less overall talent than we do.

Yet they went 11-5 last year and made the playoffs. And aside from the "suck for Luck" season (which I contend was no accident) you have to go back to 2001 for a sub .500 season.

Yeah that certainly sounds like a team with less talent than a team that has been below .500 since 2004.

[jcbillsfan]

 

 

Bills may not have a choice to keep both of them.

I know you think they should be able to shackle them both to Buffalo but the NFLPA objects to that.

 

If either Byrd or Levitre go, it creates another gaping hole, and once again free agency allows what is little of our talent walk is more correct but light your pitchfork and head to castle to kill the monster.

you cant keep levitre if he doesnt want to stay j

[BillsWatch]

you cant keep levitre if he doesnt want to stay j

 

That is my point. There is no "let them go". Levitre may decide no matter how much front office offers he would prefer to play elsewhere for reasons which may have nothing to do with dollars on contract. He could decide he just wants a change of scenery, want to play on grass field, not like the new OL coach, etc. IF Byrd decided to sign contract without being tagged before free agency starts it is different issue but Levitre could still pull a Jason Peters if tagged and hold out as long as he can and just come back with enough weeks left to satisfy eligibility rule.