QB Data to drive the debate

[shibuya]

Landry Jones added Page #2 of this thread minus 2nd rd stats data ... http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/155930-qb-data-to-drive-the-deabte/page__st__20#entry2735225

 

Posted this on the BBMB thought I might as well toss it up here.

 

http://secondroundst...om/qb-rankings/

 

the quoted section is info taken from the above link

 

below I've taken the listings above, given 7 pts for a #1 ranking and 1 point for a #7 ranking and totaled them up. The challenge for some of you diehards is to find info on strength of competition, and performance against top competition, strength of supporting cast, and give us a ranking for that to offset/weight these stat calculation

 

QB Rankings

 

For Full Scouting Reports:

 

Geno Smith | Matt Barkley | Tyler Wilson | Mike Glennon

 

Most Accurate – Short Passes (Screens and 1-5 Yards)

1. 
   Most Accurate – Short Passes (Screens and 1-5 Yards)
    
   
   1. Geno Smith
      
   2. Mike Glennon
      
   3. Ryan Nassib
      
   4. Tyler Wilson
      
   5. EJ Manuel
      
   6. Zac Dysert
      
   7. Matt Barkley
      

Most Accurate – Intermediate Passes (6-10 Yards and 11-20 Yards)

1. Geno Smith
   
2. EJ Manuel
   
3. Ryan Nassib
   
4. Mike Glennon
   
5. Matt Barkley
   
6. Tyler Wilson
   
7. Zac Dysert
   

 

Most Accurate – Deep Passes (20+ Yards)

1. Zac Dysert
   
2. Ryan Nassib
   
3. Matt Barkley
   
4. Geno Smith
   
5. Mike Glennon
   
6. Tyler Wilson
   
7. EJ Manuel
   

 

Best Completion % – 3rd Down

1. Mike Glennon – 69%
   
2. Matt Barkley – 66.7%
   
3. Tyler Wilson – 65.7%
   
4. Geno Smith – 60%
   
5. EJ Manuel - 64.5%
   
6. Ryan Nassib - 50%
   
7. Zac Dysert – 47.6%
   

LOOKS LIKE THEY MESSED THIS LIST UP EJ SHOULD BE AHEAD OF GENO HERE

 

Most Yardage In the Redzone

1. Mike Glennon
   
2. Geno Smith
   
3. Tyler Wilson
   
4. Matt Barkley
   
5. EJ Manuel
   
6. Ryan Nassib
   
7. Zac Dysert
   

 

Longest Average Distance of Throw

1. Mike Glennon – 9.4 Yards
   
2. Zac Dysert - 7.43 Yards
   
3. Matt Barkley – 6.06 Yards
   
4. Tyler Wilson – 5.99 Yards
   
5. EJ Manuel – 5.76 Yards
   
6. Ryan Nassib - 4.94 Yards
   
7. Geno Smith – 4.69 Yards
   

1. Mike Glennon = 34
   
2. Geno Smith = 28
   
3. Matt Barkley = 24
   
4. Tyler Wilson =22
   
5. Ryan Nassib = 22
   
6. EJ Manuel = 20
   
7. Zac Dysert = 18
   

 

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

 

Now lets add some more thought to this process. Lets rank them by their 2012 numbers.

 

Completion % 2012

1. Geno Smith - 71.1%
   
2. EJ Manuel - 68.0%
   
3. Matt Barkley - 63.6%
   
4. Zac Dysert - 62.6%
   
5. Ryan Nassib - 62.4%
   
6. Tyler Wilson - 62.1%
   
7. Mike Glennon - 58.8%
   

 

Rating 2012

1. Geno Smith - 163.9
   
2. Matt Barkley - 157.6
   
3. EJ Manuel - 156
   
4. Tyler Wilson - 143.8
   
5. Ryan Nassib - 143.3
   
6. Zac Dysert - 136.1
   
7. Mike Glennon - 130.7
   

 

TD's 2012

1. Geno Smith - 42
   
2. Matt Barkley - 36
   
3. Mike Glennon - 31
   
4. Ryan Nassib - 26
   
5. Zac Dysert - 25
   
6. EJ Manuel - 23
   
7. Tyler Wilson - 21
   

total passing yards 2012

1. Geno Smith - 4205
   
2. Mike Glennon - 4031
   
3. Ryan Nassib - 3749
   
4. Zac Dysert - 3483
   
5. EJ Manuel - 3392
   
6. Tyler Wilson - 3387
   
7. Matt Barkley - 3273
   

Interceptions 2012

1. Geno Smith - 6
   
2. Ryan Nassib - 10
   
3. EJ Manuel - 10
   
4. Zac Dysert - 12
   
5. Tyler Wilson - 13
   
6. Matt Barkley - 15
   
7. Mike Glennon - 17
   

tie = 5.5 pts each

 

 

2012 Rankings

• Geno Smith - 35 ***perfect score****
  
• Ryan Nassib - 20.5
  
• EJ Manuel - 21.5
  
• Matt Barkley - 20
  
• Zac Dysert - 19
  
• Mike Glennon -14
  
• Tyler Wilson - 12
  

 

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

 

Now lets apply Career totals for the above categories

 

Completion % career

1. Geno Smith - 67.4%
   
2. EJ Manuel - 66.9%
   
3. Matt Barkley - 64.1%
   
4. Zac Dysert - 63.8%
   
5. Tyler Wilson - 62.6%
   
6. Mike Glennon - 60.4%
   
7. Ryan Nassib - 60.3%
   

 

Rating career

1. Geno Smith - 153.5
   
2. EJ Manuel - 150.4
   
3. Matt Barkley - 148.7
   
4. Tyler Wilson - 144
   
5. Ryan Nassib - 132.5
   
6. Zac Dysert - 132.4
   
7. Mike Glennon - 132.3
   

total passing yards career

1. Matt Barkley - 12327
   
2. Zac Dysert - 12013
   
3. Geno Smith - 11662
   
4. Ryan Nassib - 9190
   
5. Tyler Wilson - 7765
   
6. EJ Manuel - 7741
   
7. Mike Glennon - 7411
   

Yards / attempt career

1. EJ Manuel = 8.6
   
2. Tyler Wilson = 8.2
   
3. Geno Smith = 8.0
   
4. Matt Bakley = 7.9
   
5. Zac Dysert = 7.2
   
6. Ryan Nassib = 7.0
   
7. Mike Glennon = 6.9
   

Pass Attempts / TD's career

1. Matt Barkely 1562/116 = 13.47
   
2. Geno Smith 1465/98 = 14.94
   
3. Mike Glennon 1069/63 = 16.96
   
4. Tyler Wilson 948/52 = 18.23
   
5. Ryan Nassib 1312/70 = 18.74
   
6. EJ Manuel 897/47 = 19.08
   
7. Zac Dysert 1672/73 = 22.9
   

Pass Attempts / INT's career

1. Geno Smith 1465/21 = 69.76
   
2. Ryan Nassib 1312/28 = 46.85
   
3. Tyler Wilson 948/26 = 36.46
   
4. Mike Glennon 1069/31 = 34.48
   
5. Zac Dysert 1672/51 = 32.78
   
6. Matt Bakley 1562/48 = 32.54
   
7. EJ Manuel 897/28 = 32.03
   

 

 

Career pass attempts (to help put in the career TD and INT's, should factor be weighted to account for TD's and INT's, but I have not weighted these stats)

1. Zac Dysert - 1672
   
2. Matt Barkley - 1562
   
3. Geno Smith - 1465
   
4. Ryan Nassib - 1312
   
5. Mike Glennon - 1069
   
6. Tyler Wilson - 948
   
7. EJ Manuel - 897
   

 

 

career ranking

1. Geno Smith - 42
   
2. Matt Barkley - 36
   
3. Zac Dysert - 26
   
4. Tyler Wilson - 27
   
5. EJ Manuel - 25
   
6. Ryan Nassib - 23
   
7. Mike Glennon - 14
   

 

 

re- summarized

 

2nd round stats ranks

1. Mike Glennon = 34
   
2. Geno Smith = 28
   
3. Matt Barkley = 24
   
4. Tyler Wilson =22
   
5. Ryan Nassib = 22
   
6. EJ Manuel = 20
   
7. Zac Dysert = 18
   

 

2012 Rankings

1. Geno Smith - 35 ***perfect score****
   
2. Ryan Nassib - 20.5
   
3. EJ Manuel - 21.5
   
4. Matt Barkley - 20
   
5. Zac Dysert - 19
   
6. Mike Glennon -14
   
7. Tyler Wilson - 12
   

 

career ranking

1. Geno Smith - 42
   
2. Matt Barkley - 36
   
3. Zac Dysert - 26
   
4. Tyler Wilson - 27
   
5. EJ Manuel - 25
   
6. Ryan Nassib - 23
   
7. Mike Glennon - 14
   

 

Summarizing the summary

 

1. Geno Smith - 20
   
2. Matt Barkley - 15
   
3. Ryan Nassib - 11
   
4. EJ Manuel - 10
   
5. Mike Glennon - 10
   
6. Zac Dysert - 9
   
7. Tyler Wilson - 9
   

Edited February 24, 2013 by shibuya

[jcbillsfan]

Geno smith's stats are off the charts

[Astrobot]

I still think KC takes Joeckel and Philly goes D-Lineman. If Geno's on the board at 6

Bills might trade with Cleveland to get Smith. If they stand pat, they're liable to have Arizona take him (although I'm hearing LT if Fisher is still there).

[jaybee]

Thats a nice piece of work you've done here. Statistics have been known to lie though. And...stats don't take into account the system a youngster was in and the system a head coach wants to run and the youngsters perceived ability to run that system.

 

Thanks for taking the time to do this. It is an interesting post fer sher but only God (and Marrone et al) know what they are looking for and whatever that is "should" play largest in whom they take at QB, if anyone.

 

jb

[Prickly Pete]

I expect Smith to go first , followed by Barkley (hopefully the Bills), followed by Glennon.

 

Nice work, but if it was all in the numbers, it wouldn't be so hit and miss to find a good QB.

Edited February 23, 2013 by Marauder'sMicro

[KeisterHollow]

It's too bad the Bills have so many needs, otherwise one could just say, "take a QB in round 1 NO MATTER WHAT!". That's just not happening, though, unless the QB in round 1 merits being taken - which is to say, looks like a Franchise QB for 10 years. Round 2 QB's are QB's who look like they could start, and be good, but might not have enough skill to be great, or maybe they just need time to develop. Round 3-4 QB's are guys who would probably not start right away, but have "Potential" to be anywhere from great to a good, solid starter. Round 5 on is usually where a GM would expect to find backups, or "Prospects with unique potential" - a guy in this year's draft who could be considered such is Marqueis Gray, a QB who was once a WR/TE, who has real speed, a big body, and a cannon for an arm. He just needs to learn the mechanics and touch, and how to read defenses, etc.

 

That, above, is just a sort of grouping of where QB's generally will go, and why, as I see it.

 

Now, this year, I think there are 2 QB's who fit into round 1, because of talent and their body of work: Geno Smith and Matt Barkley.

Round 2 would include Mike Glennon and Tyler Wilson.

Somewhere in the late 2 to end of round 3 would include Nassib, Bray, and EJ Manuel.

I expect Dysert to go between 5 and 6.

 

I could be wrong, as far as how the NFL views these guys, but I believe they'll fall in that range - because of their talent, body of work, and the strengths of other positions in this draft.

 

So, as far as I'm concerned, if Buffalo gets Barkley in round 1, or Tyler Wilson in round 2, or Nassib/Manuel in round 3, or Dysert in round 5 - I would think they got good value. However, if Buffalo really wants to have a solid QB and compete for a Championship, I think they have to get Barkley, Wilson, Smith, Bray, or Manuel. I'm leary of Glennon (and Smith, for that matter), and Nassib's arm reminds me a lot of Fitz's, but we'll see how they do.

Edited February 23, 2013 by KeisterHollow

[section122]

You know I have been a little disenchanted with tbd lately but this. This is excellent. Thanks for a great thought provoking post with facts. Well done good sir!

 

Oh yeah give me Barkley all day !

[1billsfan]

EJ Manuel was dealing with finding out in September that his Mom had breast cancer. None of these other guys had to deal with something like that, and the kid still put up very good numbers. That says a lot about how he will handle the pressure of the NFL.

[Captain Hindsight]

EJ Manuel was dealing with finding out in September that his Mom had breast cancer. None of these other guys had to deal with something like that, and the kid still put up very good numbers. That says a lot about how he will handle the pressure of the NFL.

Well he would have no excuses here. Apparently if your brother is murdered you should take a personal day then go back to being dominant

[yungmack]

Stats have their place but I still rely ultimately on my eyes. And after watching Geno Smith quite a bit, my opinion (and that's all it is) is that he's emotionally erratic, more in the Vince Young mold, with enough talent to do very well in college, but with enough flaws that he will have a difficult time in the pros. Here's an article from the LA Times in which Greg Cosell gives his opinions of the top QB prospects: http://www.latimes.com/sports/football/nfl/la-sp-nfl-scout-quarterbacks-20130223,0,6035113.story

[Prickly Pete]

Stats have their place but I still rely ultimately on my eyes. And after watching Geno Smith quite a bit, my opinion (and that's all it is) is that he's emotionally erratic, more in the Vince Young mold, with enough talent to do very well in college, but with enough flaws that he will have a difficult time in the pros. Here's an article from the LA Times in which Greg Cosell gives his opinions of the top QB prospects: http://www.latimes.c...0,6035113.story

 

So they all suck.

That may be true, but I'm willing to use a 2nd round pick on some of these guys, because some of them will be better than Fitz. The Bills need a Qb NOW, even if it's just until next draft. I don't think they will miss not having another Aaron Williams, or Torrell Troup. As I have noted, guys whole careers have gone to waste with the quarterbacking the Bills have endured.

[shibuya]

I agree with everyone that stats only tell a portion of the story. I'm no film rat so I rely on the usual outlets and stats to paint a picture

 

I was wondering if anyone had insight or a way to add rankings that factored in strength of schedule, bowl games, surrounding cast into this to round out what the stats are telling us

[mrags]

Great work. Would love to see how some of this years top prospects match up against some of the previous draft classes. If we all say this year sucks for a QB, if love to see it compared to other classes. Wouldn't it be funny if Smith, Glennon, Barkley were all better than say Cam, Luck, RG3, Wilson, Dalton, Etc.

[NoSaint]

EJ Manuel was dealing with finding out in September that his Mom had breast cancer. None of these other guys had to deal with something like that, and the kid still put up very good numbers. That says a lot about how he will handle the pressure of the NFL.

 

Didnt genos grandma (ie who raised him) die right before this season (August-ish)?

[yungmack]

So they all suck.

That may be true, but I'm willing to use a 2nd round pick on some of these guys, because some of them will be better than Fitz. The Bills need a Qb NOW, even if it's just until next draft. I don't think they will miss not having another Aaron Williams, or Torrell Troup. As I have noted, guys whole careers have gone to waste with the quarterbacking the Bills have endured.

I don't think they all suck, just that none of them have that "can't miss" quality. They all appear to be second tier talents. The question to ask yourself if, if they'd come out last year, which ones would have been drafted in the first round? If none of this year's crop would have been a top pick last year, then why would you spend a top pick on them this year when there are equal or greater needs on the Bills for which there are some really good players? The Bills will definitely pick one of these guys though I don't think they'll use the #8 on any of them.

 

There seems to be a case of "magical thinking" with some fans that if their team uses a high first round pick to take a guy who, by all objective standards, is a second tier talent, abra kadabra, he turns into a franchise QB simply by being taken high in the draft.

 

One reason the Bills are in the unfortunate position of having to take a QB in a fallow year is that Buddy Nix passed on Collin Kaepernick AND Russell Wilson last year, both of whom were better than any of this year's candidates. I would love for one of the beat reporters to corner him on that screw up.

[T master]

Geno smith's stats are off the charts

 

I put up some stuff last year about Russel Wilsons stats & i was told YOU CAN'T WIN WITH STATS Be careful what you post man it's a tough crowd on here ... But i'm with you on the stats thing .

[Prickly Pete]

I don't think they all suck, just that none of them have that "can't miss" quality. They all appear to be second tier talents. The question to ask yourself if, if they'd come out last year, which ones would have been drafted in the first round? If none of this year's crop would have been a top pick last year, then why would you spend a top pick on them this year when there are equal or greater needs on the Bills for which there are some really good players? The Bills will definitely pick one of these guys though I don't think they'll use the #8 on any of them.

 

There seems to be a case of "magical thinking" with some fans that if their team uses a high first round pick to take a guy who, by all objective standards, is a second tier talent, abra kadabra, he turns into a franchise QB simply by being taken high in the draft.

 

One reason the Bills are in the unfortunate position of having to take a QB in a fallow year is that Buddy Nix passed on Collin Kaepernick AND Russell Wilson last year, both of whom were better than any of this year's candidates. I would love for one of the beat reporters to corner him on that screw up.

 

I thought I explained my reasoning. I just want them to TRY and find someone better than Fitz. Fitz was a 7th round talent. I don't expect a "franchise quarterback", just an improvement. And there is NO GREATER NEED for this franchise than a COMPETENT quarterback.

[Dibs]

I don't think they all suck, just that none of them have that "can't miss" quality. They all appear to be second tier talents. The question to ask yourself if, if they'd come out last year, which ones would have been drafted in the first round? If none of this year's crop would have been a top pick last year, then why would you spend a top pick on them this year when there are equal or greater needs on the Bills for which there are some really good players? The Bills will definitely pick one of these guys though I don't think they'll use the #8 on any of them......

 

In terms of your definition of "tiers", I personally would describe it as 3rd Tier....not 2nd.

1st Tier are the "can't miss" quality.....those that get selected in the top 4 in R1.

2nd Tier are the rest of the 1st R quality QBs.....and into the very top of R2.

3rd Tier are the ones directly after that.

 

I only raise this as to avoid communication problems. If I were to have stopped reading after your 2nd sentence, I would have thought that you meant that there are several QBs who would be fine to take at the #8 spot.

Edited February 23, 2013 by Dibs

[yungmack]

I thought I explained my reasoning. I just want them to TRY and find someone better than Fitz. Fitz was a 7th round talent. I don't expect a "franchise quarterback", just an improvement. And there is NO GREATER NEED for this franchise than a COMPETENT quarterback.

 

I agree with your statement. And I'm sure they're going to try to find one. I just don't know if any of the guys this year are significantly better than Fitz to the point where you expend the #8 pick on them. And if OBD feels that they're all a shot in the dark, then take one in the second round. Out of the whole bunch of them, I'm becoming more and more intrigued with Nassib, and with Wilson. I'm not saying either one is franchise quality or even starter quality, just that they are moving to the top of my personal list.

[fansince88]

Stats have their place but I still rely ultimately on my eyes. And after watching Geno Smith quite a bit, my opinion (and that's all it is) is that he's emotionally erratic, more in the Vince Young mold, with enough talent to do very well in college, but with enough flaws that he will have a difficult time in the pros. Here's an article from the LA Times in which Greg Cosell gives his opinions of the top QB prospects: http://www.latimes.c...0,6035113.story

Agree with your stats statement. I have only seen Geno once and that was the bowl game against Syracuse. Saw a few Syracuse games and would have to say that Syracuse wide receivers have a severe case of the dropsies. So does that play into the negative stats against Nassib? Dont know.