Bills to let David Nelson walk?

[Tcali]

Geez I certainly hope Nix, a long time professional scout and current GM of a NFL team , isn't thinking the same way a group or buttheads on a message board are whose only collective football experience is drinking beer while watching a game once a week for 16 weeks. If Nix is thinking the same way posters on here are then the Bills are far worse off than I thought.

 

i think buttheads could run a team better than the Bills mgmt could. No contest.

[mob16151]

i think buttheads could run a team better than the Bills mgmt could. No contest.

 

Mmmmhmmm yes absolutely,why this very board is known for it's CRITICAL THINKING,and PATIENCE.

[ganesh]

I dislike their silence. I want some explanation as to why they would not tender Donald Jones and David Nelson. These are completely illogical moves, and I don't understand why the media isn't trying to push Nix to explain these moves.

 

If it's a new scheme thing, say so. if it's an injury thing, say so. If it's a production thing, say so. I don't think we should be left scratching our heads.

 

But that is something to be dealt by Nix. I would ask Nix as to the reason for releasing Jones and Nelson. The coaches job is to let the Player Personnel Dept know who they want and who they don't.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

You say that Nelson's numbers came for a very bad team, but the 2011 Bills offense was 14th in points and 14th in yards. The Bills had the 8th toughest schedule in the league that year.

 

All valid points. I think coaches and GMs, though, are as human as the next guy. If they're looking for a FA, they naturally look for guys who have played for winning teams. There's the feeling that a backup on a winning team may be coached and expected to prepare higher level than a starter on a loser - we've heard it expressed ourselves with regard to draft choices, right, that Ron Brooks from LSU was a role player in a top program and potentially more advanced than starters for lesser programs, right?

 

I'm not trying to argue that Nelson isn't a good player, and I'm not saying I entirely agree with the above, but it is a fact that the Bills, trying to come from behind, passed a heck of a lot. I think all this gets considered by a GM deciding whether to spend some of his limited time scouting a potential FA acquisition. Then again Belichek could sign Nelson on March 12 straight off and I could be wrong.

 

I dislike their silence. I want some explanation as to why they would not tender Donald Jones and David Nelson.

 

Mmm hmmm and I want a pony. I don't think the Bills owe anyone an explanation. " There is no waste of time in life like that of making explanations." -Disraeli

What do you want them to say? "We didn't think they were good enough to be worth the tender" - pointless and mean. "We question their value to a West Coast system" ditto.

"We're stupid and illogical and don't know how to run a football team" which is pretty much what opinion here sums to - if it's true, don't expect them to admit it. "They didn't fit with our plans for the team going forward" stating the obvious and tactful but devoid of specific informational content - why would it make you feel better to hear that?

 

I just wanna say, I'm very proud of this thread. I birthed it and have watched it grow and mature and take on a life of its own. It doesn't even need me anymore. Almost brings a tear to my eye.

 

I would like to felicitate Coach Tuesday on his thread achieving its 21 page milestone. Your thread is now legal to buy its own alcohol and should be graduating and earning its own way Real Soon Now ™

Edited March 1, 2013 by Hopeful

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Exactly k-9! You think Buddy envisioned Chan only giving CJ Spiller 388 carries over 3 years after using the 7th overall pick in the draft on that runnin' back? Only 13 carries per season last year when the team's passing game went to hell and Spiller was going off? When the Bills took Spiller it was believed by many that Gailey hand picked Spiller. Gailey wasn't picking the players. Marrone says he is not picking the players. Russ says Buddy has 100% control of personnel. Nobody wants to credit Buddy for the decisions being made.

 

That last may be true, but possibly not for the reason you envision and possibly not in the manner you envision.

 

To the extent that a coach and GM aren't communicating and working in sync regarding the needs of the team, what players to resign, acquire, and draft, that team is highly dysfunctional and will never gain traction and improve.

 

I think it's probably correct that Nix didn't envision Spiller being used so little when he was drafted #7. Yet with all the needs on the team, if Nix indeed picked Spiller #7 over all the talented players available without Chan's input and endorsement that yes, our team can really benefit by a player of that talent, we were doomed right there. I don't think that's the case. There were media reports before that draft from Chan about wanting a "waterbug" back. Then Spiller arrived, and something worked out differently than planned, can guess but why. I think there were signs that in the last year, Nix and Chan were pulling in different directions as far as player acquisition (VY, TJax). Voila, the result.

 

So fans believe that Marrone is having strong input into what players are kept, acquired, and will be drafted, not because we don't want to credit Nix with decisions this year, but because if Marrone and Nix are a functional coach/GM pairing, it is TRUE that the final decision on player personnel is made by the GM and his staff and it is ALSO TRUE that it is made with a lot of input from the HC and his staff after evaluating film and other forms of player evaluation. If Nix is getting rid of players that Marrone feels he can use and would like to keep, we're doomed, plain and short.

[Coach Tuesday]

C'mon little buddy - don't die on me! DON'T DIIIIIEEEEEE ONNNNN MMEEEEEEEEE!

[dave mcbride]

 

 

That last may be true, but possibly not for the reason you envision and possibly not in the manner you envision.

 

To the extent that a coach and GM aren't communicating and working in sync regarding the needs of the team, what players to resign, acquire, and draft, that team is highly dysfunctional and will never gain traction and improve.

 

I think it's probably correct that Nix didn't envision Spiller being used so little when he was drafted #7. Yet with all the needs on the team, if Nix indeed picked Spiller #7 over all the talented players available without Chan's input and endorsement that yes, our team can really benefit by a player of that talent, we were doomed right there. I don't think that's the case. There were media reports before that draft from Chan about wanting a "waterbug" back. Then Spiller arrived, and something worked out differently than planned, can guess but why. I think there were signs that in the last year, Nix and Chan were pulling in different directions as far as player acquisition (VY, TJax). Voila, the result.

 

So fans believe that Marrone is having strong input into what players are kept, acquired, and will be drafted, not because we don't want to credit Nix with decisions this year, but because if Marrone and Nix are a functional coach/GM pairing, it is TRUE that the final decision on player personnel is made by the GM and his staff and it is ALSO TRUE that it is made with a lot of input from the HC and his staff after evaluating film and other forms of player evaluation. If Nix is getting rid of players that Marrone feels he can use and would like to keep, we're doomed, plain and short.

 

I don't know why people are brining Spiller into the argument here. There was a complicating factor that I suspect neither Gailey nor Nix anticipated: the fact that until he broke his leg in week 11 of the 2011 season, Fred Jackson was one of the five best running backs in the NFL and an excellent receiver to boot. That'll change your plans for a can't-block young RB very quickly.

 

As it so happens, once Jackson got hurt, Spiller came in and in the final 6 games of 2011 had 635 yards from scrimmage (106 per game) and 4 TDs. It wasn't like he wasn't being exploited.

Edited March 2, 2013 by dave mcbride

[BADOLBILZ]

I don't know why people are brining Spiller into the argument here. There was a complicating factor that I suspect neither Gailey nor Nix anticipated: the fact that until he broke his leg in week 11 of the 2011 season, Fred Jackson was one of the five best running backs in the NFL and an excellent receiver to boot. That'll change your plans for a can't-block young RB very quickly.

 

As it so happens, once Jackson got hurt, Spiller came in and in the final 6 games of 2011 had 635 yards from scrimmage (106 per game) and 4 TDs. It wasn't like he wasn't being exploited.

 

What you are talking about really relates more to the irrational decision to use such a high draft pick on CJ Spiller when you already had a pair of excellent running backs and little else. Nix wanted to replicate the big, physical team he had helped build in San Diego. He spoke of this. He already had a poor-man's version of LaDanian Tomlinson on the team in Marshawn Lynch. The excuse that Lynch was one strike away from suspension was a thin one to begin with. Jackson was a 1000 yard back as well.

 

Last year, the disconnect between the value placed on Spiller by Nix on draft day.....as opposed to how Gailey viewed him came into focus when Spiller only averaged 13 carries per game. The first two seasons were excused by most by the presence of Fred Jackson. The third was not. Jackson was injured and ineffective. One also has to wonder if Nix was on board with the finesse offense that Gailey preferred when Nix was basically only interested in acquiring OL in the 330+ range. There were many disconnects with what Nix and Gailey seemed to be doing and that was not considered by too many Bills fans until they started to turn on Gailey and Nix. The dynamic between Nix and Marrone is at best unknown.

 

My point from the beginning was that everything we know tells us that Nix is still the ultimate authority on personnel decisions. And it shows in the pet projects like Tarvaris Jackson and Colin Brown being re-signed.

 

Yet, in the justification for not tendering David Nelson in this thread there is not one mention that maybe Nix had decided that he didn't value Nelson.

 

And the reason for that is that people aren't satisfied with Buddy's judgement and so they want to credit Marrone for making a decision that for all we know he had very little input on. He has said, he is not making the personnel decisions.

 

That is a flaw in the majority of the justification arguments being made in this David Nelson thread.

 

I get why people don't want to think about Buddy making the decisions. KOKBILLS started a separate thread and the same people who are here defending the Nelson decision are also in that thread showing their hate for Nix.

 

But that does not make it so. What the Bills are saying indicates that Buddy is still making the decisions. I will even take it one step further. If Nix is a lame duck and Whaley is taking over after the draft, then why isn't Whaley mentioned? Because he has been aiding Buddy for several years now.

 

Fans want to see the new decisions as separate from the old decisons that have hampered the franchise.

 

The reality is that the same mistakes have been repeated over and over for the last decade plus. One of them is subtraction for the sake of subtraction.

 

That is how I see the David Nelson decision and I think I have just cause for feeling that way. Just another unnecessary subtraction.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

C'mon little buddy - don't die on me! DON'T DIIIIIEEEEEE ONNNNN MMEEEEEEEEE!

 

[dave mcbride]

What you are talking about really relates more to the irrational decision to use such a high draft pick on CJ Spiller when you already had a pair of excellent running backs and little else. Nix wanted to replicate the big, physical team he had helped build in San Diego. He spoke of this. He already had a poor-man's version of LaDanian Tomlinson on the team in Marshawn Lynch. The excuse that Lynch was one strike away from suspension was a thin one to begin with. Jackson was a 1000 yard back as well.

 

Last year, the disconnect between the value placed on Spiller by Nix on draft day.....as opposed to how Gailey viewed him came into focus when Spiller only averaged 13 carries per game. The first two seasons were excused by most by the presence of Fred Jackson. The third was not. Jackson was injured and ineffective. One also has to wonder if Nix was on board with the finesse offense that Gailey preferred when Nix was basically only interested in acquiring OL in the 330+ range. There were many disconnects with what Nix and Gailey seemed to be doing and that was not considered by too many Bills fans until they started to turn on Gailey and Nix. The dynamic between Nix and Marrone is at best unknown.

 

My point from the beginning was that everything we know tells us that Nix is still the ultimate authority on personnel decisions. And it shows in the pet projects like Tarvaris Jackson and Colin Brown being re-signed.

 

Yet, in the justification for not tendering David Nelson in this thread there is not one mention that maybe Nix had decided that he didn't value Nelson.

 

And the reason for that is that people aren't satisfied with Buddy's judgement and so they want to credit Marrone for making a decision that for all we know he had very little input on. He has said, he is not making the personnel decisions.

 

That is a flaw in the majority of the justification arguments being made in this David Nelson thread.

 

I get why people don't want to think about Buddy making the decisions. KOKBILLS started a separate thread and the same people who are here defending the Nelson decision are also in that thread showing their hate for Nix.

 

But that does not make it so. What the Bills are saying indicates that Buddy is still making the decisions. I will even take it one step further. If Nix is a lame duck and Whaley is taking over after the draft, then why isn't Whaley mentioned? Because he has been aiding Buddy for several years now.

 

Fans want to see the new decisions as separate from the old decisons that have hampered the franchise.

 

The reality is that the same mistakes have been repeated over and over for the last decade plus. One of them is subtraction for the sake of subtraction.

 

That is how I see the David Nelson decision and I think I have just cause for feeling that way. Just another unnecessary subtraction.

Believe me, I agree about picking Spiller. But that became water under the bridge once he was actually picked.

 

Also, did you see this piece about mobile linemen v. maulers? http://sportsillustr...emen/index.html

 

According to the piece, there are many in the NFL who believe that the d-linemen are so big and good that strength against strength doesn't cut it anymore. You need guys who can move, especially if you have a mobile QB.

Edited March 2, 2013 by dave mcbride

[BADOLBILZ]

Believe me, I agree about picking Spiller. But that became water under the bridge once he was actually picked.

 

Also, did you see this piece about mobile linemen v. maulers? http://sportsillustr...emen/index.html

 

According to the piece, there are many in the NFL who believe that the d-linemen are so big and good that strength against strength doesn't cut it anymore. You need guys who can move, especially if you have a mobile QB.

 

Good article. I think big AND athletic is attainable for teams willing to invest early in OL in this draft. I would rank what should be the Bills top 3 priorities in order:

 

Quarterback....by a lot

Left Tackle

RDE/pass rushing OLB...almost equal to the need at LT

 

To me, Cordy Glenn is a right tackle. A potentially very good one. Right tackle is overlooked but it was a big problem last year and even when Pears was younger and healthier he was a journeyman. Hairston is a backup. As a LT I see Cordy not being a favorite of Bills fans. If they don't address LT, I hope I am wrong but it's asking an awful lot of him to block RDE's the way a quicker athlete can.

 

The offense is about QB play. Starts with having a talented QB, THEN with protecting him, THEN with upgrading his targets.

 

Defense is about stopping the QB and that still starts with pass rushers. Anderson was a worthwhile risk, but his career shows that he is a situational guy. They need a dominant rusher from Brady's blindside.

 

Then we get into WR, CB and ILB. Based on past failures, unfortunately, I would expect these to be the positions the Bills actually address with their early picks.

 

Dropping Nelson increases that likelihood if just for the fact that there is no #2 receiver on the roster. At all. My hope is that they address all three of these starting positions in free agency and NOT the draft because it should be a rare buyers market.

 

As for the undersized but athletic Levitre, I hope they pay him. It makes short term sense to try to fill that position cheaper in free agency, but to a certain extent we saw this situation play out with Barnett and Posluszny. Poz was overpaid a mill or so per year, but Barnett was only a stop gap. Now, two years later ILB is a weak point. In that case, Poz wanted to leave. Levitre seems to want to stay. We have seen plenty of OL moves that looked good on paper but if good guards were so easy to get they wouldn't have drafted Levitre in round 2. Gotta' learn and progress. Levitre is the only proven durable NFL OL on the roster.

 

Yeah, they may have to guarantee extra money and backload some deals to get all the talent they need, but such is the cost of not drafting well. Any money left on the table is likely to be worth less in future free agent markets. Good organizations have the luxury of making decisions that bad ones do not.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

 

 

But that is something to be dealt by Nix. I would ask Nix as to the reason for releasing Jones and Nelson. The coaches job is to let the Player Personnel Dept know who they want and who they don't.

 

Concur. I want nix to explain why he thought these guys weren't worth simple RFA tenders. it was only last year that they were extolling the virtues of jones and Nelson.

 

btw, the more I think about it, the more I am worried about losing jones and Nelson. there is no way we're going to replace that production at that price. We will either have to spend in free agency or waste a high draft pick on a receiver. (And a draft pick will be a waste in the short term because odds are a rookie receiver won't be productive).

 

Oh, well. Guess we should trust the front office. They have a track record of excellent decisions.

[KOKBILLS]

Oh, well. Guess we should trust the front office. They have a track record of excellent decisions.

 

 

Oh wait...

[Hapless Bills Fan]

What you are talking about really relates more to the irrational decision to use such a high draft pick on CJ Spiller when you already had a pair of excellent running backs and little else. Nix wanted to replicate the big, physical team he had helped build in San Diego. He spoke of this. (...)

 

Last year, the disconnect between the value placed on Spiller by Nix on draft day.....as opposed to how Gailey viewed him came into focus when Spiller only averaged 13 carries per game. (...) One also has to wonder if Nix was on board with the finesse offense that Gailey preferred (...)There were many disconnects with what Nix and Gailey seemed to be doing (...) The dynamic between Nix and Marrone is at best unknown.

 

My point from the beginning was that everything we know tells us that Nix is still the ultimate authority on personnel decisions. (...)

 

And the reason for that is that people aren't satisfied with Buddy's judgement and so they want to credit Marrone for making a decision that for all we know he had very little input on. He has said, he is not making the personnel decisions.

 

I agree with the observation about the apparent disconnect between Nix and Gailey, and the evidence offered for it (CJ only 13 carries per game last year in the face of an a ineffective passing offense and an injured FJax; the VY and TJax acquisitions only to watch TJax sit on the bench, etc etc).

 

There do seem to be some internal contradictions here. For example, if Nix was making all the personnel decisions from the start and Gailey had no input, just why did Nix (whom, as you observe, stated he wanted to build a big physical team) "irrationally" use a high draft pick on Spiller? Does that argue for Gailey's influence into the pick? Does it argue for Nix saying he wants to build a big physical team, but actually doing something else? Was there an "X" factor such as interference from Wilson or the FO? Something doesn't seem to compute with the picture that Nix is calling all the shots at least at the start of the Chix/Nailey years - or just why would Mr. "I want a big physical team" draft "Mr Waterbug" that Chan was quoted in the media enthusing about?

 

I'm glad to see you acknowledge that the dynamic between Marrone and Nix is at best unknown. I agree. It is true that for all we know Marrone had little input into the decision not to tender Nelson. But equally it is true that for all we know, Marrone had a lot of input into that decision ....it does not contradict at all with the statements by Marrone in the press that Nix is making the personnel decisions. Someone has the "buck stops here" sign on his desk, it doesn't mean that he isn't accepting and being influenced by a lot of input from others.

 

Many of us hope it's so, not because we aren't satisfied with Buddy's judgement (that may or may not be the case for some - it is for me), but because overall, when the GM and the coach aren't communicating freely and pulling the team in the same direction with regard to personnel decisions, it's very bad news indeed for the success of the team.

 

C'mon little buddy - don't die on me! DON'T DIIIIIEEEEEE ONNNNN MMEEEEEEEEE!

 

Remember, wherever you go...THERE YOU ARE

[Bill from NYC]

As for the undersized but athletic Levitre, I hope they pay him. It makes short term sense to try to fill that position cheaper in free agency, but to a certain extent we saw this situation play out with Barnett and Posluszny. Poz was overpaid a mill or so per year, but Barnett was only a stop gap. Now, two years later ILB is a weak point. In that case, Poz wanted to leave. Levitre seems to want to stay. We have seen plenty of OL moves that looked good on paper but if good guards were so easy to get they wouldn't have drafted Levitre in round 2. Gotta' learn and progress. Levitre is the only proven durable NFL OL on the roster.

 

Yeah, they may have to guarantee extra money and backload some deals to get all the talent they need, but such is the cost of not drafting well. Any money left on the table is likely to be worth less in future free agent markets. Good organizations have the luxury of making decisions that bad ones do not.

 

Agreed and as I recall, they traded up to draft Levitre. Before that draft I knew nothing about Wood, and was hoping that they would take Levitre in round 1.

The Bills have ample cap space to solve many problems. As you said, this free agency period will be a buyer's market. But sadly, nothing dumb that they do on draft day would suprise me, and there is no reason to be surprised. I can honestly see them drafting Milliner or a wide receiver (a position they can fill in free agency). Even if Milliner is already grabbed by the Lions, they might draft the second ranked corner. It happened at safety in 2006. Thankfully, there are no sure fire RBs in this draft.

Badol, please tell me about Matt Moore. Is he clearly superior to Fitz? Also, how do you rate Tyler Bray? Imo, he is the most talented qb in this draft, but I don't consider myself to be an expert at rating qbs.

[The Big Cat]

Apparently the knee is still bum:

 

[eball]

Apparently the knee is still bum:

 

http://twitter.com/B...192486518956032

 

Can't be true. I've heard many medical experts on this board assert that surgically repaired knees are no big deal and the injury had absolutely nothing to do with the Bills' decision not to spend $$ on a guy who at his best is a 3rd/4th receiver and might not yet be ready to play.

[The Big Cat]

Can't be true. I've heard many medical experts on this board assert that surgically repaired knees are no big deal and the injury had absolutely nothing to do with the Bills' decision not to spend $$ on a guy who at his best is a 3rd/4th receiver and might not yet be ready to play.

 

And not to mention, Graham's just a shill for the MSM and their anti-David Nelson agenda.

[ganesh]

Agreed and as I recall, they traded up to draft Levitre. Before that draft I knew nothing about Wood, and was hoping that they would take Levitre in round 1.

 

 

Wood coming out of Louisville was going to be the definitely-can't miss center prospect. In spite of his gruesome injuries, he has played very well.

[Doc]

Can't be true. I've heard many medical experts on this board assert that surgically repaired knees are no big deal and the injury had absolutely nothing to do with the Bills' decision not to spend $$ on a guy who at his best is a 3rd/4th receiver and might not yet be ready to play.

Wait, didn't that article on Nelson last week say that he was running routes? I guess "running" was a little generous.