Donald Duck Posted January 23, 2013 Posted January 23, 2013 If they draft any QB not named Geno Smith or Barkley at #8, the Bills FO, head coach and the QB they picked will have a TON of pressure on them. Because everyone will know that they reached for a non-first round graded QB which the fans will be expecting franchise level first round QB play from. That would be a hugely risky move. Just wait to see who's there at the 2nd round pick with an eye on the QBs in the 2014 draft. Not only would I try to get a 2014 1st round pick by trading back this year, but I'd like to see what 2014 pick Green Bay would give up for Jackson. In my opinion if buffalo does not draft Ryan Nassib there will be even more pressure to succeed because they passed up on the logical choice..
Kelly the Dog Posted January 23, 2013 Posted January 23, 2013 I don't know, I have watched alot of his games & I think he looks pretty good. I mean what more did you want him to do? 4 year starter, threw for 12k yards in his career, 139 td passes against only 46 ints had completion % his last 3 years well over 60%. Was a leader & a true team player. They did not have as good of season as everyone expected this year but that was because their defense stunk. I have watched numerous games of his & he passes the eye test too. To say he will not be a franchise QB & just "has some skills" is being closed minded. I will put his stats & his college career against any QB in this draft & they certainly compare favorably by a huge margin over a guy like Nassib that everybody seems to be drooling over. Does not have a cannon, but his arm is above average & his accuracy & pocket presence is very good. Yes he had top flight talent at the skill positions, but you still need a trigger man to get the ball there & Barkley throughout his career did this for the most part with proficiency. The only thing I have questions about taking Barkley is if he could handle the weather & the culture shock from being @ USC to coming to B-low. He did play really well up in Eugene in 2011 against a top 5 Oregon team & I recall the weather was lousy(40's & a stiff rain). They won that game & to be honest at the end of the 2011 season I thought USC was the one team that could possibly knock off Alabama but they were banned from post season play. Fair enough. I think when he plays well he passes the eye test obviously. I have just seen him play so poorly, live, several times, that I think his stats are really a poor indicator of his play. When USC is rolling it up on teams, and guys like Marquis Lee and Woods were getting wide open or making spectacular plays, the stats don't show the kind of player he is. I see him missing wide open guys all the time and just not handling the position well. I guess it's consistency that I have a problem with. If you watch a highlight reel of him, he looks awesome. When you watch him a lot, he looks terrible a lot. It's possible, that because i have seen some of his worst games that I am biased, but there have been games he looked bad the whole game and has an 80 yard TD pass in on a great play by Lee where at the end of the game his stats suggest he had a pretty good game. Again, no one knows and you may be right. And he will probably be drafted in the first round. I just don't want the Bills to take him. If they do, I'll start to root for him.
Gordio Posted January 23, 2013 Posted January 23, 2013 Fair enough. I think when he plays well he passes the eye test obviously. I have just seen him play so poorly, live, several times, that I think his stats are really a poor indicator of his play. When USC is rolling it up on teams, and guys like Marquis Lee and Woods were getting wide open or making spectacular plays, the stats don't show the kind of player he is. I see him missing wide open guys all the time and just not handling the position well. I guess it's consistency that I have a problem with. If you watch a highlight reel of him, he looks awesome. When you watch him a lot, he looks terrible a lot. It's possible, that because i have seen some of his worst games that I am biased, but there have been games he looked bad the whole game and has an 80 yard TD pass in on a great play by Lee where at the end of the game his stats suggest he had a pretty good game. Again, no one knows and you may be right. And he will probably be drafted in the first round. I just don't want the Bills to take him. If they do, I'll start to root for him. Thanks for the assessment. Appreciate it. I have never seen him play live(of course I have never seen any of these guys play live except for Nassib). To be honest I am really not blown away from any of these guys. Last year I was blown away by RG III & Luck & to a lesser extent Wilson & the year before I was really high on Newton & I also really liked Kapernick(My uncle lives in Reno so he always kept me updated on him. Not to turn this into a Nix bashing again but if memory serves me he made a snide comment that Washington paid to much in a trade up for RG. Not hind sight, I would of done anything in my power if I was Nix to get RG & even told my friend that if I had the choice I would of took him over Luck Hopefully he returns healthy next year. Whe the Bills traded up in the 3rd round I couldn't believe our good fortune that Wilson was still around(I had him pegged as a first round talent). As usual the Bills f*cked that up too.
Kelly the Dog Posted January 23, 2013 Posted January 23, 2013 (edited) Thanks for the assessment. Appreciate it. I have never seen him play live(of course I have never seen any of these guys play live except for Nassib). To be honest I am really not blown away from any of these guys. Last year I was blown away by RG III & Luck & to a lesser extent Wilson & the year before I was really high on Newton & I also really liked Kapernick(My uncle lives in Reno so he always kept me updated on him. Not to turn this into a Nix bashing again but if memory serves me he made a snide comment that Washington paid to much in a trade up for RG. Not hind sight, I would of done anything in my power if I was Nix to get RG & even told my friend that if I had the choice I would of took him over Luck Hopefully he returns healthy next year. Whe the Bills traded up in the 3rd round I couldn't believe our good fortune that Wilson was still around(I had him pegged as a first round talent). As usual the Bills f*cked that up too. Exactly. Couldn't agree more. Last year I was completely wowed by Luck, RGIII and Wilson. And before I loved Newton (luck really screwed that up for us). Kap was an interesting prospect and I loved the guy after watching some specials on him, but he had a couple huge question marks and was a huge risk. Sometimes you need to take them obviously, and SF is being rewarded, but Kap was not even close to being a sure thing. This year, none of the guys wow me at all. We're just so desperate for a QB that we have to take one of them. Edited January 23, 2013 by Kelly the Dog
Punch Posted January 23, 2013 Posted January 23, 2013 I don't particularly like McShay, but: Todd McShay @McShay13 Nassib's arm vastly overrated. Short/intermediate throws MPHs but struggles driving ball vertically on tape and see same at Senior Bowl.
eball Posted January 23, 2013 Posted January 23, 2013 I don't particularly like McShay, but: Todd McShay @McShay13 Nassib's arm vastly overrated. Short/intermediate throws MPHs but struggles driving ball vertically on tape and see same at Senior Bowl. Have you ever tried to drive the ball vertically on tape? It's tougher than it sounds.
JohnC Posted January 23, 2013 Posted January 23, 2013 (edited) Exactly. Couldn't agree more. Last year I was completely wowed by Luck, RGIII and Wilson. And before I loved Newton (luck really screwed that up for us). Kap was an interesting prospect and I loved the guy after watching some specials on him, but he had a couple huge question marks and was a huge risk. Sometimes you need to take them obviously, and SF is being rewarded, but Kap was not even close to being a sure thing. This year, none of the guys wow me at all. We're just so desperate for a QB that we have to take one of them. Not to long ago I listened to Mike Lomabardi of the NFL Network on a podcast just prior to taking the Cleveland job. He was asked about Kapernick and how he was viewed as a draft prospect. He said that at the time he considered him an intriquing prospect who had unique physical abilities. The concern he and most other scouts had about him dealt with his accuracy. It was known that he could make all the throws but the area of concern dealt with his accuracy level. He then commented that that after watching him this year those concerns have been laid to rest. Not many people have a problem with Nix passing on certain qb prospects in the first round over the past few years. But there were certainly a number of good prospects over the last couple of years that would have been reasonable picks in the second and even the third round the past couple of years. My preference is for the Bills to take a qb with the highest rating on their board in the first round and not risk losing their favored prospect to another team. My preference is Tyler Wilson. Although last year he didn't play up to his abilities, mostly due to turmoil in the Arkansas program, he did display top shelf talent in his junior year. Edited January 23, 2013 by JohnC
zow2 Posted January 23, 2013 Posted January 23, 2013 I don't particularly like McShay, but: Todd McShay @McShay13 Nassib's arm vastly overrated. Short/intermediate throws MPHs but struggles driving ball vertically on tape and see same at Senior Bowl. I watched some 'Cuse games and I rarely saw Nassib even throw deep. Seemed like the SU offense was mostly power running, screens, and short-intermediate passes. It could be successful in Buffalo but it still would be nice to see an Aaron Rodgers type arm get the ball deep. That's why I am more of a Glennon backer....but if they pick Nassib I'll get on board.
JPS Posted January 23, 2013 Posted January 23, 2013 Except that it's not what you did. You may have indeed seen a good WR form Georgia, but instead of commenting about him, you--unprompted--used it as an opportunity to take a shot at Nix, with the very clear implication being that he is a clueless old guy that only drafts players from the South. If that wasn't the implication, then what, pray tell, did you mean by "Is it even worth looking at the North practices with Magoo at the helm?"? You weren't "sucked into" anything, which is why it's hard to abide the comments. Oh whatever. He is Magoo to me. I'll leave it at that until May 1.
Kelly the Dog Posted January 23, 2013 Posted January 23, 2013 Not to long ago I listened to Mike Lomabardi of the NFL Network on a podcast just prior to taking the Cleveland job. He was asked about Kapernick and how he was viewed as a draft prospect. He said that at the time he considered him an intriquing prospect who had unique physical abilities. The concern he and most other scouts had about him dealt with his accuracy. It was known that he could make all the throws but the area of concern dealt with his accuracy level. He then commented that that after watching him this year those concerns have been laid to rest. Not many people have a problem with Nix passing on certain qb prospects in the first round over the past few years. But there were certainly a number of good prospects over the last couple of years that would have been reasonable picks in the second and even the third round the past couple of years. My preference is for the Bills to take a qb with the highest rating on their board in the first round and not risk losing their favored prospect to another team. My preference is Tyler Wilson. Although last year he didn't play up to his abilities, mostly due to turmoil in the Arkansas program, he did display top shelf talent in his junior year. My recollection of the Kapernick concerns is that there were several of them. Accuracy was one (although IIRC he could throw pretty well and accurate on the run). The biggest problem to me was his wind-up when he threw. He really tightened his motion since he became a pro and a lot of guys, if not most, cannot change their throwing motion and still be good. He became a lot better. Plus the competition he played against. He was an intriguing candidate and prospect because he was so big and strong and could run and was a great kid. But there were all kinds of warning signs and concerns about him as an NFL prospect and he was considered not only a risk but a project. He just proved everyone wrong (except, arguably, Harbaugh and the 49ers). And another thing, it's impossible to know for sure, but of 32 NFL coaches out there, I can't imagine more than 2-3 would have benched Alex Smith, after his 2012 season, playoffs, and leading the league in passer rating and leading the team as he did. If Kapernick were on almost any other team, most fans probably never would have heard of him, or be blaming the Bills for not being wise enough to draft him. Harbaugh made an incredible ballsy call that paid off, probably the equivalent of Pete Carroll starting Russell Wilson. And no, it wasn't obvious to anyone if you were smart.
bananathumb Posted January 23, 2013 Posted January 23, 2013 Wheaton looks like a good WR and Trufant the best CB. Some interesting OTs like Eric Fisher and a really good center from WV called Manson? Sylvester Williams making good defensive line moves. These are the standouts today. QBs are not doing much again so far.
eball Posted January 23, 2013 Posted January 23, 2013 And another thing, it's impossible to know for sure, but of 32 NFL coaches out there, I can't imagine more than 2-3 would have benched Alex Smith, after his 2012 season, playoffs, and leading the league in passer rating and leading the team as he did. If Kapernick were on almost any other team, most fans probably never would have heard of him, or be blaming the Bills for not being wise enough to draft him. Harbaugh made an incredible ballsy call that paid off, probably the equivalent of Pete Carroll starting Russell Wilson. And no, it wasn't obvious to anyone if you were smart. For all of the things Ralph has been (often rightfully) criticized for, he made one comment a few years back that was soundly ridiculed around here -- he said "you have to be lucky." The circumstances leading to Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick leading their teams the way they have is a testament to that.
Kelly the Dog Posted January 23, 2013 Posted January 23, 2013 For all of the things Ralph has been (often rightfully) criticized for, he made one comment a few years back that was soundly ridiculed around here -- he said "you have to be lucky." The circumstances leading to Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick leading their teams the way they have is a testament to that. I would consider what the Seahawks and 49ers did to be equal parts smart, ballsy/risky, and lucky.
JohnC Posted January 23, 2013 Posted January 23, 2013 (edited) For all of the things Ralph has been (often rightfully) criticized for, he made one comment a few years back that was soundly ridiculed around here -- he said "you have to be lucky." The circumstances leading to Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick leading their teams the way they have is a testament to that. What the 49ers and Seahawks experience with finding exceptional young qb talents demonstrates is that you have to be aggressive in your pursuit of an impact franchise qb. The 49ers had Smith, a qb that got them close to the SB the previous year. Yet the organization kept trying to upgrade the position. The Seahawks in the offseason signed a free agent qb for a sizeable sum. Yet in that year's draft they selected a talented qb whose main liability was that he was short. The organization received a lot of criticism from the "experts" on draft day for that selection. Neither team was satisfied with being adequate at the most important position in the game. So they kept searching for talent. What Harbaugh and Carroll also demonstrate is that both had the courage to act on their convictions. They both saw in practice that the young qbs were better than the veteran qbs; and they were not afraid to act on it. That took a lot of guts to do. What Ralph Wilson never understood or cared to understand is that when you place an emphasis in hiring the best people to make the football decisions your franchise has a better tendency to be "lucky." Another way of saying that is you make your own luck by having qualified people making the decisions for your team. Edited January 23, 2013 by JohnC
eball Posted January 23, 2013 Posted January 23, 2013 I would consider what the Seahawks and 49ers did to be equal parts smart, ballsy/risky, and lucky. Agreed. It's not all luck, but even 33.3% is significant.
JohnC Posted January 23, 2013 Posted January 23, 2013 Agreed. It's not all luck, but even 33.3% is significant. Doesn't it stand to reason from a statistical standpoint that if you try something more often that the odds work in your favor compared to being reluctant to even try? I'm referring to Nix's passivity in drafting reasonable qb prospects.
CarolinaBill Posted January 23, 2013 Posted January 23, 2013 Doesn't it stand to reason from a statistical standpoint that if you try something more often that the odds work in your favor compared to being reluctant to even try? I'm referring to Nix's passivity in drafting reasonable qb prospects. Lets not forget that each one of the QBs Nix "passed" on had significant concerns. 1: Kaep was looked at as a long term project, the fact that he is playing so well is a testament to the coaches and talent around him. Do you think CHan would've done as well? 2: Dalton, viewed as a 5th rd talent going into mobile, he reminds me of fitz and it is interesting to note that he has one of the best WR in football catching passes from him. I don't think we missed on him. 3: Mallett: While possessing undeniable physical ability, he has yet to diaplay such prowess in any meaningful games (jury still out) and had serious concerns coming out of college. 4: Wilson: everything was good except the height, but statistically, short QBs dont do well, and remember that Seattle and wilson really took off once the read option was installed into the offense, prior to that wilson was not setting the league on fire. Again, I ask, do you think CHan would've been so forward thinking? 5: Cousins, this one puzzles me a bit because he is a decent talent and could've been a good guy to develop, but, he is not ready yet and does not offer a significant upgrade from what we have had with fitz.
2003Contenders Posted January 23, 2013 Posted January 23, 2013 Doesn't it stand to reason from a statistical standpoint that if you try something more often that the odds work in your favor compared to being reluctant to even try? I'm referring to Nix's passivity in drafting reasonable qb prospects. Excellent point. The Packers are a testimony to that. Even when they had an established QB, they were still drafting QBs almost every year. Favre, Brunell, Hasselbeck, Brooks, Nall, Rodgers, Brohm, Flynn... Some of these guys were even 1st/2nd round picks. Certainly, not all of them have worked out -- but by sheer volume, some guys are going to stick. Meanwhile, aside from the late 7th rounder they invested in Levi Brown, the Bills have not drafted a QB since Trent Edwards back in 2007. I believe that the Bills should do whatever they need to do to draft the guy they have ranked as their top QB in this draft. And then they need to take a flier on a mid round Sleeper as well.
Kelly the Dog Posted January 23, 2013 Posted January 23, 2013 Doesn't it stand to reason from a statistical standpoint that if you try something more often that the odds work in your favor compared to being reluctant to even try? I'm referring to Nix's passivity in drafting reasonable qb prospects. Nix made a mistake in judgment, and the Bills suffered badly for it. There is no getting around that. But at the time of the Kapernick selection, he had a starting QB that his coach said he can win with, and a veteran back-up QB that his coached loved from having him before. He had a terrible defense that needed a complete overhaul and had just drafted Dareus in the first. He was in desperate need of more CBs, including a starter or at the very least a #3 who would play a lot, and drafted a highly regarded one in Aaron Williams, over two risky QB prospects with big question marks or low ceilings, who was surely going to be the #3 QB. It was a huge mistake in retrospect, as Williams has sucked, and Kapernick became a star. I personally don't like Dalton but even so. Nix made a huge mistake in his pick, but it made all the sense in the world. He wasn't ignoring the QB position at all, he chose the guy he thought was going to help the team the most in the short, mid, and long term. Again, it was a huge mistake but it wasn't stupid at the time and it wasn't shirking QB responsibilities or hating the position. The next year, he had a starting QB signed to a decent new contract, and again, his coach loved the QB. In the third round, Nix chose a guy, or I should say a position or type of player, a speedy WR that they desperately needed, and tried extremely hard to address in FA but got outbid (Robert Meachem). Nix's logic was, who is going to help this team more, and he chose the speedy WR over the #3 QB with major question marks. Again, a MONSTER mistake in judgment of talent, as Graham has looked lost and Wilson became a star, combined with the implosion of Fitzpatrick. But it made all the sense in the world, and again, it wasn't a dereliction of duty, it was a misjudging of his coach's ability, his starting QB's ability, his draft pick Graham's ability, and the eventual historic and unpredictable skyrocketing of Russell Wilson. I think Nix failed in a huge way. I can't wait for him to be gone. He's made way more bad selections than good ones, in critical areas, especially coaching. But he doesn't hate QBs, know nothing about them, or make those picks in a vacuum. They made good solid logical sense. He just blew it and he needs to go.
San Jose Bills Fan Posted January 23, 2013 Posted January 23, 2013 Have you ever tried to drive the ball vertically on tape? It's tougher than it sounds. That tape stuff is real sticky. For all of the things Ralph has been (often rightfully) criticized for, he made one comment a few years back that was soundly ridiculed around here -- he said "you have to be lucky." The circumstances leading to Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick leading their teams the way they have is a testament to that. I would consider what the Seahawks and 49ers did to be equal parts smart, ballsy/risky, and lucky. In the specific case of the Kaepernick/Wilson discussion, I disagree with you guys. I also disagree with JohnC's comment about aggression in this particular case. IMO, where these players were selected made them very good risks and no aggression was needed to select them. They weren't taken in the first round. To the arm strength discussion, I tend to think that arm strength is usually overrated. That said, for his sake, I'm hoping Barkley did have a serious shoulder problem this season because of the video I've viewed on him from 2012, he has a rag arm. As in below average. I think a quarterback can be successful with an average arm but not with a weak arm.
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