Kelly the Dog Posted January 21, 2013 Posted January 21, 2013 100% agree. That's why I am not going to get all worked up about the Nassib speculation. Marrone/Hackett are in the best position to know Nassib. If they take him at 8, I will be psyched because it will indicate that they have faith in him being a stud. They may be wrong, but if he is their guy I will be excited about the pick and will not have a negative thing to say about it until Nassib proves them wrong. If they don't pick him, that just proves that they were not sold. This is pretty much what I think. IMO, there no way they draft him because of nepotism, familiarity, they love him as a kid, etc. They are betting their professional careers on him if they draft him high. In theoretical terms, we have to trust them to recognize talent and hope like hell they know how to exploit it best. Otherwise, if they can't, we're going to suck another three years regardless of whether they take Nassib or someone else. That being said, I almost WANT them to take him, because that, to me, means they really think he can be a stud. The question in my eyes is1] whether or not his ascension and growth is something that is going to translate to and continue in the NFL; 2] whether he has a ceiling that he is pretty close to reaching already, or 3] whether he can do the things he did in college that were good translate when he gets into the NFL.They are all related.
D521646 Posted January 21, 2013 Author Posted January 21, 2013 This is pretty much what I think. IMO, there no way they draft him because of nepotism, familiarity, they love him as a kid, etc. They are betting their professional careers on him if they draft him high. In theoretical terms, we have to trust them to recognize talent and hope like hell they know how to exploit it best. Otherwise, if they can't, we're going to suck another three years regardless of whether they take Nassib or someone else. That being said, I almost WANT them to take him, because that, to me, means they really think he can be a stud. The question in my eyes is1] whether or not his ascension and growth is something that is going to translate to and continue in the NFL; 2] whether he has a ceiling that he is pretty close to reaching already, or 3] whether he can do the things he did in college that were good translate when he gets into the NFL.They are all related. One thing I've noticed about watching college film is that even if the highlights are great, deep passes caught in stride etc.. Something that needs to be paid close attention to is just how open these guys are when the ball is released from the QB. Although that might happen once or twice a season in the NFL, the fact is that when you throw the ball deep in the NFL, the open part is a step, maybe two. If you're rating a guy on his ability to throw the deep ball, this one single variable is extrememly important. The film I've seen on Nassib (And I like the kid don't get me wrong) is his successful deep balls were all what amounts to a gimmes at an NFL level. The kind where announcers say before he throws the ball, "and wide open down the field is..." Someone missed an assignment type deal. In college, a lot of these down field deep passes are attributed to guys missing assignments, and it happens by a factor of a 100 compared to the NFL. Moral of the story? A deep ball looks nice, but it is reminiscent of a deep ball one might expect to see completed at the NFL level? Is the timing the same? Tim-
....lybob Posted January 21, 2013 Posted January 21, 2013 This thread was just a thinly veiled attempt at tamping down anti-Nassib sentiments, wasn't it. Where do I start. When I first saw the video of Nassib I was impressed. He seemed to be good at a lot of things. Then I watched the videos again, and again. The more I watched his videos, the more I didn't see him as a professional starting NFL QB. As was the case with Blaine Gabbert, Ryan Nassib looks to be another classic example of a very successful system, first read, dink and dunk, college QB who has no shot at modern day NFL success. I read your check list and I disagree with your basic assessments on his positives… "knows the coaching staff" - meaningless "knows the offense" - meaningless "has all the tools" - clearly false, his only known tool is first read "dink and dunk" passing "tall enough for an NFL QB" - true, yes he is "athletic" - false, Smith and Manuel are athletes, Nassib is not an athlete using NFL QB standards "strong arm" - biggest myth from what I've seen on video, his WRs had to stop cold to wait on his deep passes "good football awareness" - how would anyone know his awareness level when Nassib clearly wasn't asked to drop back, check through progressions and find the open man under pressure Out of the above list, Nassib's substandard NFL arm is the killer. He not only looks like Ryan Fitzpatrick (meaningless I know…lol) but his "substandard NFL arm" game looks very similar Fitzpatrick's. Opposing NFL defenses going against the Bills wouldn't even have to throw out their game plans. I wouldn't even consider Nassib until the third round on. BTW, the guy who actually does have ALL of the tools out of the whole group is EJ Manuel. To me and my eyes, Nassib is no where near the NFL QB prospect that Manuel is from the videos that I've watched. My big concern with Nassib isn't so much arm strength but his inability to escape pressure and make positive plays.
Bill from NYC Posted January 21, 2013 Posted January 21, 2013 Since it's MLK day and I'm slow at work, and all this talk about who we should take at #8, or whether we trade down/up, whether Nix is a terrible GM, and if we took this guy over that guy etc.. etc.. Just seems that there really isn't any evidence AT ALL that selecting a player and where is an exact science, heck, I've come to the conclusion that it isn't a science at all. No revelation to some of the more tenured posters here at TBD I'm sure, but looking back at what the experts were saying then, and what the experts here at TBD are saying now is just plain silly and a waste of good bandwidth. I looked back at what experts were saying mocking the draft, and I can't help but say that the term "mock" is appriopriate when discussing the issue. Every player's success based on their selection to any team is directly related to the system they were drafted into, the circumstances and dynamics associated with their position, and the coaches and support they receive. It's really all it boils down to. Even as we look and say well heck we should have taken Wilson over TJ Graham, or JJ Watt or whomever blah blah, there's no gaurantee that Wilson or (insert player you wished we would have had over the player we shouldn't have gotten) whatever would have done what they did if the situation was different. Granted, we can say that Wilson and JJ Watt in hindsight would have flourished in any system, but I have come to the realization that GM's can't know this for sure, that picking your players in the draft is what amounts to a crap shoot, and no amount of analytics is going to matter as the variables are too many, and unquantifiable. I know we're going to get a million mock drafts leading into April, but I don't put a lot of stock in the experts, or for that matter, the resident experts advice. In 2010 CJ Spiller was a first round selection on most experts draft boards, but where he ended up was mixed. No one had Cj going to the Bills, and the first mention was Jacksonville taking him (on average) at pick 14, BUT only if (Insert player here) such and such wasn't available. We grabbed him and even right up until this year, not a lot of people (TBD included) knew what we had. Why? Because of Fred Jackson, but even if we didn't grab him, and say he went to the Jags instead, the general consensus was that he'd back up (spill) MJD, giving him restpites when needed. Point is that our GM and the Powers that be are going to select the best player they think they have at whatever pick, and second guessing them is tantamount to worthless commentary. Tim- It's hard to tell where you are going with this post. This as you know is a Bills message board. Our team continuosly fails to make the playoffs. Are you suggesting that we stop speculating about the draft? A good draft is the hope that we cling to. And btw, there is no sense patting ourselves on the back about Spiller, or any other selection until we actually win football games. A case can be made that Gilmore is good. Hell, Donte Whitner made the probowl. If a team drafts "good" players and keeps on losing, there are other serious problems, to include draft philosophy and team building strategy. My respectful suggestion is to ignore threads about the draft if they offend and/or bore you.
rayray808 Posted January 22, 2013 Posted January 22, 2013 if we are truly going BPA (which is fine with me) then an SEC defensive player is being drafted at 8
Recommended Posts