Mock drafts, experts, and TBD - My thoughts

[D521646]

Since it's MLK day and I'm slow at work, and all this talk about who we should take at #8, or whether we trade down/up, whether Nix is a terrible GM, and if we took this guy over that guy etc.. etc.. Just seems that there really isn't any evidence AT ALL that selecting a player and where is an exact science, heck, I've come to the conclusion that it isn't a science at all. No revelation to some of the more tenured posters here at TBD I'm sure, but looking back at what the experts were saying then, and what the experts here at TBD are saying now is just plain silly and a waste of good bandwidth.

 

I looked back at what experts were saying mocking the draft, and I can't help but say that the term "mock" is appriopriate when discussing the issue. Every player's success based on their selection to any team is directly related to the system they were drafted into, the circumstances and dynamics associated with their position, and the coaches and support they receive. It's really all it boils down to. Even as we look and say well heck we should have taken Wilson over TJ Graham, or JJ Watt or whomever blah blah, there's no gaurantee that Wilson or (insert player you wished we would have had over the player we shouldn't have gotten) whatever would have done what they did if the situation was different. Granted, we can say that Wilson and JJ Watt in hindsight would have flourished in any system, but I have come to the realization that GM's can't know this for sure, that picking your players in the draft is what amounts to a crap shoot, and no amount of analytics is going to matter as the variables are too many, and unquantifiable.

 

I know we're going to get a million mock drafts leading into April, but I don't put a lot of stock in the experts, or for that matter, the resident experts advice. In 2010 CJ Spiller was a first round selection on most experts draft boards, but where he ended up was mixed. No one had Cj going to the Bills, and the first mention was Jacksonville taking him (on average) at pick 14, BUT only if (Insert player here) such and such wasn't available. We grabbed him and even right up until this year, not a lot of people (TBD included) knew what we had. Why? Because of Fred Jackson, but even if we didn't grab him, and say he went to the Jags instead, the general consensus was that he'd back up (spill) MJD, giving him restpites when needed.

 

Point is that our GM and the Powers that be are going to select the best player they think they have at whatever pick, and second guessing them is tantamount to worthless commentary.

 

 

Tim-

Edited January 21, 2013 by D521646

[Bufcomments]

Point is that our GM and the Powers that be are going to select the best player they think they have at whatever pick, and second guessing them is tantamount to worthless commentary. This is disagree with.

 

We as Bills fan have to second guess the quality of the scouting Dept. on missing year after year and pro bowl type players.

 

Yea the guys are going to draft the players that they think can help them the most. But to miss out year after year on Great players as a fan you have to wonder about that. Teams that draft well have not only great players but good depth as well. Look at Green Bay a few years ago. No way they win the Super bowl that year without the depth they had on that team.

 

Bottom line is we have to draft well to get the roster well rounded out. Missing on players like Maybin, not drafting Wilson when we needed a QB shows we have to do a better job at OBD.

[D521646]

A better job yes, but this isn't wat I'm arguing. I'm saying that you, Bufcomments are in no way more qualified to know what and where we pick that guys should be. A lot of people are saying that Nassib would be a major reach at #8, but why do they say that? If you take analytics into account, he should be the Bills FIRST CHOICE! Why you ask? He knows the coaching staff, knows the offense we (expect to run) run, and has all the tools, sans some accuracy questions past 40 yards. He's tall enough for an NFL QB (not that this matters too much these days), he's athletic, strong arm, good football awareness, I mean, why NOT take him over any other QB in the draft?

 

Is it a sure bet? Nope, but considering all the QB's available, can you make a better case for anyone else?

 

 

Tim-

[Kelly the Dog]

Point is that our GM and the Powers that be are going to select the best player they think they have at whatever pick, and second guessing them is tantamount to worthless commentary. This is disagree with.

 

We as Bills fan have to second guess the quality of the scouting Dept. on missing year after year and pro bowl type players.

 

Yea the guys are going to draft the players that they think can help them the most. But to miss out year after year on Great players as a fan you have to wonder about that. Teams that draft well have not only great players but good depth as well. Look at Green Bay a few years ago. No way they win the Super bowl that year without the depth they had on that team.

 

Bottom line is we have to draft well to get the roster well rounded out. Missing on players like Maybin, not drafting Wilson when we needed a QB shows we have to do a better job at OBD.

I don't think any GM in any sport in any round automatically takes "The best player available" even though they almost all say they do. That is simply the equivalent of a politically correct statement.

 

Every single pick in every single round in every single sport by every single GM (or person/groupthink making the decision) is the exact same thing-- a balance of what player is going to help your team the most in your opinion, in the short term, mid, term and long term, choosing between 1] the best player available, 2] the best player available at a serious position of need, 3] the best player available at a fairly important position of need, combined with what other players may be available later on at these positions of need.

 

It's always the same thing, and always the same process, whether it is someone who is great at drafting or someone who absolutely blows at it. When they actually do choose the best player available, it is only because they determined that guy is going to help them more than the other two-three options. And in the next round, it starts all over again.

[1billsfan]

A better job yes, but this isn't wat I'm arguing. I'm saying that you, Bufcomments are in no way more qualified to know what and where we pick that guys should be. A lot of people are saying that Nassib would be a major reach at #8, but why do they say that? If you take analytics into account, he should be the Bills FIRST CHOICE! Why you ask? He knows the coaching staff, knows the offense we (expect to run) run, and has all the tools, sans some accuracy questions past 40 yards. He's tall enough for an NFL QB (not that this matters too much these days), he's athletic, strong arm, good football awareness, I mean, why NOT take him over any other QB in the draft?

 

Is it a sure bet? Nope, but considering all the QB's available, can you make a better case for anyone else?

 

 

Tim-

 

This thread was just a thinly veiled attempt at tamping down anti-Nassib sentiments, wasn't it. Where do I start. When I first saw the video of Nassib I was impressed. He seemed to be good at a lot of things. Then I watched the videos again, and again. The more I watched his videos, the more I didn't see him as a professional starting NFL QB.

 

As was the case with Blaine Gabbert, Ryan Nassib looks to be another classic example of a very successful system, first read, dink and dunk, college QB who has no shot at modern day NFL success. I read your check list and I disagree with your basic assessments on his positives…

 

"knows the coaching staff" - meaningless

"knows the offense" - meaningless

"has all the tools" - clearly false, his only known tool is first read "dink and dunk" passing

"tall enough for an NFL QB" - true, yes he is

"athletic" - false, Smith and Manuel are athletes, Nassib is not an athlete using NFL QB standards

"strong arm" - biggest myth from what I've seen on video, his WRs had to stop cold to wait on his deep passes

"good football awareness" - how would anyone know his awareness level when Nassib clearly wasn't asked to drop back, check through progressions and find the open man under pressure

 

Out of the above list, Nassib's substandard NFL arm is the killer. He not only looks like Ryan Fitzpatrick (meaningless I know…lol) but his "substandard NFL arm" game looks very similar Fitzpatrick's. Opposing NFL defenses going against the Bills wouldn't even have to throw out their game plans. I wouldn't even consider Nassib until the third round on. BTW, the guy who actually does have ALL of the tools out of the whole group is EJ Manuel. To me and my eyes, Nassib is no where near the NFL QB prospect that Manuel is from the videos that I've watched.

Edited January 21, 2013 by 1billsfan

[BobChalmers]

BTW, the guy who actually does have ALL of the tools out of the whole group is EJ Manuel. To me and my eyes, Nassib is no where near the NFL QB prospect that Manuel is from the videos that I've watched.

 

Being an FSU guy, I can tell you you can't appreciate Manuel's limitations watching highlight films, because the guy's BIG problem is his lack of consistency.

 

Having said that, he IS a tremendous athlete, and I would have no problem drafting him somewhere 2-3 but I'd have a plan B in case he needs seasoning or just plain busts because he can't get more consistent.

Edited January 21, 2013 by BobChalmers

[1billsfan]

Being an FSU guy, I can tell you you can't appreciate Manuel's limitations watching highlight films, because the guy's BIG problem is his lack of consistency.

 

Having said that, he IS a tremendous athlete, and I would have no problem drafting him somewhere 2-3 but I'd have a plan B in case he needs seasoning or just plain busts because he can't get more consistent.

 

I'm with you on this. I would draft the best player at #8 like Warmack OG, Milliner CB, Werner DE, Jones LB, Patterson WR, Allen WR, or Jordan DE.

 

Drafting Manuel in the 2nd or 3rd at least gives you a versatile, talented, athletic QB to work with, but also not prevent them from drafting a first round highly graded franchise QB in 2014 if one were there when they picked and they weren't satisfied with how Manuel was progressing.

[Bufcomments]

A better job yes, but this isn't wat I'm arguing. I'm saying that you, Bufcomments are in no way more qualified to know what and where we pick that guys should be. A lot of people are saying that Nassib would be a major reach at #8, but why do they say that? If you take analytics into account, he should be the Bills FIRST CHOICE! Why you ask? He knows the coaching staff, knows the offense we (expect to run) run, and has all the tools, sans some accuracy questions past 40 yards. He's tall enough for an NFL QB (not that this matters too much these days), he's athletic, strong arm, good football awareness, I mean, why NOT take him over any other QB in the draft?

 

Is it a sure bet? Nope, but considering all the QB's available, can you make a better case for anyone else?

 

 

Tim-

Does Mel Kiper know more than me in regarding the draft? Sure does. But we are just both guessing what the Bills might do at 8. And its just a guess based on what the teams needs are.

 

And I agree with you on Nassib .

 

Sure he would be a huge reach but its a reach for a QB same as what the Dolphins did last year. and I would not surprise me at all if they pulled the trigger on Nassib.

[Wings and Beer]

This thread is not a Nassib thread. To me it seems the OP was making some points, that are completely valid.

1...the GMS and scouting personnel(whether successful or not) know considerably more than anyone else about evaluating players, and understanding where they should be drafted. To deny this is complete narcissism.

2...Saying we missed on all-pro players, is to not take into account that who they were drafted by has a huge impact on their success. (Would Watt be an all-pro if he played for the stache? Would McLovin have been an all-pro playing for Lebeau?). Perhaps drafting isn't our problem, player development is.

3...because of 1 and 2, mock drafts are fairly silly.

 

However, the point that I think the OP misses, is that for the fans, the NFL is about entertainment. Discussing who we want, and where we should get them is fun (even when we argue). It's the offseason (for bills fans), and mock drafts allow us to still be entertained by the NFL.

 

And in closing...FU Tom Brady.

[simpleman]

However, the point that I think the OP misses, is that for the fans, the NFL is about entertainment. Discussing who we want, and where we should get them is fun (even when we argue). It's the offseason (for bills fans), and mock drafts allow us to still be entertained by the NFL.

So very true, and it has been a long time since Bills fans have had much to be entertained about once the actual season has been more than a couple of games old. As entertainment value for the Bills fans, there has been very little positive entertainment value coming from the team in a long time, so we need to do something to entertain ourselves!

Edited January 21, 2013 by simpleman

[BillsCelticsAngelsBama]

This thread was just a thinly veiled attempt at tamping down anti-Nassib sentiments, wasn't it. Where do I start. When I first saw the video of Nassib I was impressed. He seemed to be good at a lot of things. Then I watched the videos again, and again. The more I watched his videos, the more I didn't see him as a professional starting NFL QB.

 

As was the case with Blaine Gabbert, Ryan Nassib looks to be another classic example of a very successful system, first read, dink and dunk, college QB who has no shot at modern day NFL success. I read your check list and I disagree with your basic assessments on his positives…

 

"knows the coaching staff" - meaningless

"knows the offense" - meaningless

"has all the tools" - clearly false, his only known tool is first read "dink and dunk" passing

"tall enough for an NFL QB" - true, yes he is

"athletic" - false, Smith and Manuel are athletes, Nassib is not an athlete using NFL QB standards

"strong arm" - biggest myth from what I've seen on video, his WRs had to stop cold to wait on his deep passes

"good football awareness" - how would anyone know his awareness level when Nassib clearly wasn't asked to drop back, check through progressions and find the open man under pressure

 

Out of the above list, Nassib's substandard NFL arm is the killer. He not only looks like Ryan Fitzpatrick (meaningless I know…lol) but his "substandard NFL arm" game looks very similar Fitzpatrick's. Opposing NFL defenses going against the Bills wouldn't even have to throw out their game plans. I wouldn't even consider Nassib until the third round on. BTW, the guy who actually does have ALL of the tools out of the whole group is EJ Manuel. To me and my eyes, Nassib is no where near the NFL QB prospect that Manuel is from the videos that I've watched.

Agree 100 %. Please let the insanity stop

[Kelly the Dog]

This thread was just a thinly veiled attempt at tamping down anti-Nassib sentiments, wasn't it. Where do I start. When I first saw the video of Nassib I was impressed. He seemed to be good at a lot of things. Then I watched the videos again, and again. The more I watched his videos, the more I didn't see him as a professional starting NFL QB.

 

As was the case with Blaine Gabbert, Ryan Nassib looks to be another classic example of a very successful system, first read, dink and dunk, college QB who has no shot at modern day NFL success. I read your check list and I disagree with your basic assessments on his positives…

 

"knows the coaching staff" - meaningless

"knows the offense" - meaningless

"has all the tools" - clearly false, his only known tool is first read "dink and dunk" passing

"tall enough for an NFL QB" - true, yes he is

"athletic" - false, Smith and Manuel are athletes, Nassib is not an athlete using NFL QB standards

"strong arm" - biggest myth from what I've seen on video, his WRs had to stop cold to wait on his deep passes

"good football awareness" - how would anyone know his awareness level when Nassib clearly wasn't asked to drop back, check through progressions and find the open man under pressure

 

Out of the above list, Nassib's substandard NFL arm is the killer. He not only looks like Ryan Fitzpatrick (meaningless I know…lol) but his "substandard NFL arm" game looks very similar Fitzpatrick's. Opposing NFL defenses going against the Bills wouldn't even have to throw out their game plans. I wouldn't even consider Nassib until the third round on. BTW, the guy who actually does have ALL of the tools out of the whole group is EJ Manuel. To me and my eyes, Nassib is no where near the NFL QB prospect that Manuel is from the videos that I've watched.

You're nuts if you think he doesn't have a strong arm. It's clear he has a very strong arm, and can make every throw. It's not a cannon, like Rogers or Russell Wilson or some of the strongest arms in the NFL but it's WAY stronger than Fitz, and more than strong enough to have it no concern whatsoever as a draft pick. It's a strength not a weakness.

 

Just because his WR had to wait on some long passes in some of those clips doesn't at all mean he doesn't have a strong arm, it means (in this case) he misjudged the distance. That is a major concern; his accuracy on the long ball. He surely has a strong enough arm to get it there. Sometimes he shows a VERY strong arm, it's one of his best attributes.

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

1bills, you do realize WRs waiting for deep balls is not necessarily an indication of a lack of arm strength? His arm strength has been viewed as a positive everywhere I've looked, so it's possible that's more of an accuracy/touch issue, which can be corrected.

[BillsCelticsAngelsBama]

Give me Matt Barkley or Tyler Wilson. PuhLeeeeeeeese !!! Just no Fitz, Glennon or Landry jones. neutral on Geno smith.

Would like/love Chance Warmack if Levitre flies the coop, which I expect. And a receiver who can catch. Hey Bills you heard of Ryan Swope NAB him in the third and you'll never regret It.

Swope is only a 4.55 but catches everything and MOST importantly gets open. Rather have that than a 4.35 guy who can't get open and/or can't catch.

[Kelly the Dog]

Give me Matt Barkley or Tyler Wilson. PuhLeeeeeeeese !!! Just no Fitz, Glennon or Landry jones. neutral on Geno smith.

Would like/love Chance Warmack if Levitre flies the coop, which I expect. And a receiver who can catch. Hey Bills you heard of Ryan Swope NAB him in the third and you'll never regret It.

Swope is only a 4.55 but catches everything and MOST importantly gets open. Rather have that than a 4.35 guy who can't get open and/or can't catch.

I don't know if Nassib is any good either way. I think we will know a little more after the Senior Bowl practices and game. I have seen Barkley play in at least 20 games, including several live, and he stinks. I want no part of Barkley. I think I would rather have Charles Barkley on the Bills than Matt Barkley. It's possible any of these guys can improve and get better over a couple years, but I think Barkley will suck as a pro. I like what I have seen of Wilson.

Edited January 21, 2013 by Kelly the Dog

[1billsfan]

1bills, you do realize WRs waiting for deep balls is not necessarily an indication of a lack of arm strength? His arm strength has been viewed as a positive everywhere I've looked, so it's possible that's more of an accuracy/touch issue, which can be corrected.

 

All I ask is that someone provide the video link where Nassib actually looks good throwing the long ball. I've watched about five of his 2012 games showing all passes on youtube and his long passes are horrible. I would love to be on board with him, but the NFL is a huge step up for college QBs that only the few with truly special skills can make and become franchise QBs. If you aren't any threat to throw a long ball, well we already know what that looks like with Fitzpatrick.

 

I see Nassib's ceiling as that of an Andy Dalton. That may be an exciting prospect from some fans here, but I'd feel like that's a 10 year sentence to no chance at winning a Superbowl even if the guy hits his ceiling of talent level. The list of elite franchise QBs in the NFC now is enormous. The Bills choice in the next couple of years at who they will select to be their "QB of the future" is enormous.

[Maddog69]

 

 

All I ask is that someone provide the video link where Nassib actually looks good throwing the long ball. I've watched about five of his 2012 games showing all passes on youtube and his long passes are horrible. I would love to be on board with him, but the NFL is a huge step up for college QBs that only the few with truly special skills can make and become franchise QBs. If you aren't any threat to throw a long ball, well we already know what that looks like with Fitzpatrick.

 

I see Nassib's ceiling as that of an Andy Dalton. That may be an exciting prospect from some fans here, but I'd feel like that's a 10 year sentence to no chance at winning a Superbowl even if the guy hits his ceiling of talent level. The list of elite franchise QBs in the NFC now is enormous. The Bills choice in the next couple of years at who they will select to be their "QB of the future" is enormous.

I'd rather trust the judgement of Marrone and Hackett as to whether Nassib has an NFL arm. They've worked with him almost every day for 3+ years. You've watched 20 minutes of Youtube film. No offense.

[1billsfan]

I'd rather trust the judgement of Marrone and Hackett as to whether Nassib has an NFL arm. They've worked with him almost every day for 3+ years. You've watched 20 minutes of Youtube film. No offense.

 

Which is the reason why I would be shocked if Marrone signs off on picking Nassib at #8. This is his first head coaching gig in the NFL and he knows that if they do that, he's all in on Nassib being a franchise QB and is banking his NFL head coaching future on it. If Nassib isn't a franchise QB then they will both be gone in three years.

[Maddog69]

 

 

Which is the reason why I would be shocked if Marrone signs off on picking Nassib at #8. This is his first head coaching gig in the NFL and he knows that if they do that, he's all in on Nassib being a franchise QB and is banking his NFL head coaching future on it. If Nassib isn't a franchise QB then they will both be gone in three years.

100% agree. That's why I am not going to get all worked up about the Nassib speculation. Marrone/Hackett are in the best position to know Nassib. If they take him at 8, I will be psyched because it will indicate that they have faith in him being a stud. They may be wrong, but if he is their guy I will be excited about the pick and will not have a negative thing to say about it until Nassib proves them wrong. If they don't pick him, that just proves that they were not sold.

[Nitro]

The draft is a guessing game. The talent can be seen in the combine, prodays, and film study. The human factor is what counts the most. Hard to peer into a man's soul and see his heart, determination, work ethic, values etc. and add to it money, family and friends. They all go into the mix. This where a good GM is separated from a great one. I look forward to see how the new group in Buffalo do in this years draft.