1billsfan Posted March 15, 2013 Posted March 15, 2013 Tannehill looked pretty solid by the end of the year. Why are people knocking him? He looks like he might end up being pretty good. Not knocking him, just showing the "swing for the fence" QB picks. As a Bills fan however, I don't see ever fearing Tannehill. He strikes me as average, which is a "fail" in my book. If Geno Smith is another Tannehill or Dalton then I'd pass. But since we don't know I'd probably have to take him. This is all speculation that Smith would be there and there's a VERY slim chance of that happening with each passing day. I think Bills fans should focus on the BPA at #8 and second tier/pick QBs, and forget this Geno Smith talk. It's kind of pointless at this point now, right? To be clear, the term "2nd teir" that I used was in reference to auburnbillsbacker's definitions.....of which I made assumptions with. His 2nd tier is actually what I would call 3rd tier. Also....to me, a team should only be interested in obtaining an Elite QB as history has shown that without one, there is very little chance to ever win the SB In my book there are only 3 Tiers of QB that are drafted. Tier 1 are the QB prospects with great potential. These are the QBs who get selected in the top 4 of the draft. The success rate for these QBs to become Elite is about 21%. Tier 2 are the QB prospects that show a glimpse(or two) that they could become elite. The NFL scouts virtually always recognize this and these QBs are subsequently virtually always selected in the 5-36 range. The rough success rate for these QBs to become elite is about 8%. Tier 3 are all of the other QBs. Wilson may or may not become an elite QB......but outside of him there has only been one QB(Brady) drafted after the 36 pick that became an elite QB(since 1985, where I went back to in my study). The rough success rate is about a half of a percent(0.5%) The short of it is.......any QB who we may select at the #41 spot is likely to have been assessed correctly by the NFL scouts as having no chance of becoming an elite QB......and if we want a reasonable chance to obtain an elite QB we minimally have to leapfrog ahead and select him at the top of the 2nd round. Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson beg to differ with this opinion.
Dibs Posted March 15, 2013 Posted March 15, 2013 Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson beg to differ with this opinion. I was very careful to use the word "likely".......I did not say it never happens......just that the likelihood of it happening are negligible outside of the top 36 selections. Kaepernick & Wilson would definitely agree with this opinion. Furthering that concept, if you somehow think it is wrong, name a QB that isn't Wilson or Brady who was drafted outside the top 36 picks in the last 27 years who became an Elite starter. The percentages I quoted were not opinions.....they were the facts. I am also wondering if you actually read my post at all. Kaepernick falls into Tier 2 as he was selected at #36.
HeHateMe Posted March 15, 2013 Posted March 15, 2013 This is a deep draft of mediocre QBs. I don't see any of them becoming elite... some may have OK careers though. Draft BPA at 8. Take a QB in the 2nd.
Donald Duck Posted March 15, 2013 Posted March 15, 2013 Truth fool. Wheres Dr Trooth when you need him
San Jose Bills Fan Posted March 15, 2013 Posted March 15, 2013 Brees is shorter than both. GO BILLS!!! However Brees, who played for Purdue, had a much greater college career than Barkley or Nassib.
Charles Romes Posted March 19, 2013 Posted March 19, 2013 Why wouldn't Barkley and other qbs sandbag their Bills workout. Even if these guys loved buffalo as a city the Ralph is not a passers ballpark.
EasternOHBillsFan Posted March 19, 2013 Posted March 19, 2013 Tom Brady says hey. This whole "California QB's" thing is so absurd. I don't care if the guy is from mars, if he can play he can play. No, it is a "USC QBs" thing... Troy Aikman, Aaron Rodgers, and others were/are stellar NFL QBs... the USC ones have consistently sucked. Why is that differentiation so difficult to see???
C.Biscuit97 Posted March 19, 2013 Posted March 19, 2013 However Brees, who played for Purdue, had a much greater college career than Barkley or Nassib. Brees definitely had a better career than Nassib but Barkley had a hell of a career. http://www.totalfootballstats.com/PlayerQB.asp?id=421 Brees had 90 tds to 45 ints, basically a 60% passer, & a 7 ypa. http://espn.go.com/college-football/player/stats/_/id/480322/matt-barkley Barkley had 116 tds to 48 ints, basically a 65% passer, and nearly 8 ypa. Obviously, it's nuts to think Barkley will have Brees career but I don't know whey people are discounting him so easily. No, it is a "USC QBs" thing... Troy Aikman, Aaron Rodgers, and others were/are stellar NFL QBs... the USC ones have consistently sucked. Why is that differentiation so difficult to see??? I get the college thing to an extent but it can be very dangerous. What if the Bills passed on Orakpo because Texas players are busts in the NFL? What if teams passed on Rodgers because Tedford coached QBs are busts (Carr, Harrington, Boller)? Each player needs to be reviewed individually. Given the sanctions USC had, it could be argued that Barkley played with the least amount of talent of any recent USC QB. And since I think Kiffin is a joke who has gotten everything because of his daddy, I think he had a severe disadvantage at coaching as well. Barkley is also a much different kid than Sanchez or Leinart. He goes on missions in the offseason with his girlfriend. Sanchez and Leinart are doing beer bongs with barely legal girls (trust me, there's nothing wrong with that but I would like a more serious guy to be our Qb).
dave mcbride Posted March 19, 2013 Posted March 19, 2013 However Brees, who played for Purdue, had a much greater college career than Barkley or Nassib. Not true, actually: http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/drew-brees-1.html http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/matt-barkley-1.html http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/geno-smith-1.html Brees had the worst stats of the the three of them.
GG Posted March 19, 2013 Posted March 19, 2013 Sanchez and Leinart are doing beer bongs with barely legal girls (trust me, there's nothing wrong with that but I would like a more serious guy to be our Qb). I guess it would depend on the definition of barely legal in Sanchez' case.
Alphadawg7 Posted March 19, 2013 Posted March 19, 2013 (edited) No, it is a "USC QBs" thing... Troy Aikman, Aaron Rodgers, and others were/are stellar NFL QBs... the USC ones have consistently sucked. Why is that differentiation so difficult to see??? No offense, but that is absurd. There is 100% positively zero relevance of past USC QB's successes or failures to current and future USC QB's NFL potential. NONE...not even a 1% link. Its factually and scientifically zero. Only media and fans make that leap in false logic. They are different people, with different teammates, with different coaches, different systems, and different abilities. To discriminate against a prospect because previous prospects failed to impress at the next level is the kind of logic that gets you fired and keeps you unemployed in the NFL. I know some scouts and they always laugh at those kind of statements and literally wish and pray that other teams are dumb enough to buy into it even though they know they won't either because its absurd. Of course they will evaluate a guy to determine if his college success was (as best as they can determine) about a favorable system, overall talent, or both. But they do NOT disregard a player or down grade him because he plays for a school that had other previous prospects of the same position fail to live up to expectations at the next level. They will evaluate them all the same, and if a guy appears to be a "systems" guy who doesn't have all the tools, he will be downgraded. If he impresses from a skill and attributes analysis, he will be elevated. Its as simple as that... So Brady is right...this knock on CA QB's, and specifically USC QB's, is absurd and only important to those who do not matter in personnel decisions...aka fans and media. Edited March 19, 2013 by Alphadawg7
KollegeStudnet Posted March 19, 2013 Posted March 19, 2013 15 years of garbage. You mean the Bills QBs? Because, they've been worse than USC QB's
LancasterSteve Posted March 20, 2013 Posted March 20, 2013 Do your own homework Sue You know I still have the link to that ummm? discussion
folz Posted March 20, 2013 Posted March 20, 2013 Could someone who actually watches college football explain to me how Barkley goes from a bona fide top 5 pick, in league with RGIII and Andrew Luck last year to a 2nd rounder this year? Or even a 4th rounder per Greg Cosell at NFL.com (Even if he does end up getting picked in the first round). I know USC didn't have as good of a season and that he hurt his shoulder, but where did the negative perception come from. He had three full seasons of film before last year...did he reveal significant flaws this past season that he hadn't in the previous three seasons? Or was it just that the team as a whole was worse and he takes the brunt of that? I'm not pushing for Barkley, I just really wonder how his stock dropped so significantly. Can anyone shed some light on this for me?
Cotton Fitzsimmons Posted March 20, 2013 Posted March 20, 2013 Can anyone name a successful QB from USC? Ever? This conversation begins and ends with: Sean Salisbury
2020 Our Year For Sure Posted March 20, 2013 Posted March 20, 2013 This conversation begins and ends with: Sean Salisbury Is he THE WHIP?
San Jose Bills Fan Posted March 20, 2013 Posted March 20, 2013 (edited) Brees definitely had a better career than Nassib but Barkley had a hell of a career. http://www.totalfoot...erQB.asp?id=421 Brees had 90 tds to 45 ints, basically a 60% passer, & a 7 ypa. http://espn.go.com/c...22/matt-barkley Barkley had 116 tds to 48 ints, basically a 65% passer, and nearly 8 ypa. Obviously, it's nuts to think Barkley will have Brees career but I don't know whey people are discounting him so easily. Not true, actually: http://www.sports-re...ew-brees-1.html http://www.sports-re...-barkley-1.html http://www.sports-re...no-smith-1.html Brees had the worst stats of the the three of them. If you guys are gonna base your argument that Barkley or Nassib are Brees' match on statistics, then I can't argue with you. The most significant of Brees' stats I can point to is that when he graduated from Purdue, he held the Big Ten record for passing yards and TD passes. But it's Brees' non-statistical accomplishments as a player that place him high above Barkley and Nassib. Brees resuscitated a moribund Purdue program and led them to their first Rose Bowl appearance in 24 years. With coach Joe Tiller he resurrected a Purdue program which had become a laughingstock in the Big Ten. For the 12 seasons before Drew Brees got to Purdue, the program had losing records. Twelve straight seasons as losers. In the 4 years Brees was at Purdue, they had a record of 33-16. After 12 straight losing records. And after he left they were never again as good. Brees won the Maxwell Award as college football best player. Neither Barkley or Nassib ever won this award. He won the Davey O'Brien Award as the nation's best quarterback. Neither Barkley or Nassib ever won this award. Brees finished 4th and 3rd in the Heisman voting. Barkley finished 6th two seasons ago. Unless I'm mistaken, Nassib was never on the Heisman radar. Twice Brees was named Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year. Brees was also the MVP in both the Alamo Bowl and the Outback Bowl. Only statistics could make the case that Barkley or Nassib's careers approached that of Drew Brees'. Edited March 20, 2013 by San Jose Bills Fan
DallasBillsFan1 Posted March 20, 2013 Posted March 20, 2013 I saw a 2-3 minute blurb on Matt Barklay on NFL Network ... I'm not impressed. Nothing specific really, just a hunch, but I really hope the Bills do NOT select him in any round. Just a vibe though.
KollegeStudnet Posted March 20, 2013 Posted March 20, 2013 Al Fronzak mock has Barkley to the Bills: 8. Buffalo Bills - QB Matt Barkley (USC)...The Bills number one priority is to find a potential franchise QB in this draft...they can't gamble that the QB they are targeting will still be available in the second round, since several other teams are looking to draft a young QB...*Note - The Bills are also said to be high on FSU QB EJ Manuel, Syracuse QB Ryan Nassib and Arkansas QB Tyler Wilson as both GM Buddy Nix and Asst. GM Doug Whaley were both present at Wilson's pro day workout in Fayettville. Team Needs- QB, WR, TE, ILB, OLB, CB; Offense - West Coast up-tempo, Zone blocking. Defense- 3-4 hybrid, press man coverage http://www.eastcoastsportsnews.com/AlFronczak_2013_Mock_Draft.html And I found this tidbit...from former Oregon coach Chip Kelly about playing Luck and Barkley in 2011 "I also qualified that and said I'm not saying he's better than Andrew Luck. I'm not saying Andrew Luck is better than him. In the game against the Ducks, the best quarterback performance in the 11 games we've played was Matt Barkley." - Chip Kelly http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/sports_blog/2011/11/oregon-coach-says-matt-barkley-is-better-than-andrew-luck-in-one-respect.html
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