A Dog Named Kelso Posted January 12, 2013 Posted January 12, 2013 People like to point to Tannehill as a rookie success, debatable yes, but he did play well at times. However, the reason for the success he did have, I think , is that he had his coach from college calling the plays. That may be one reason for the bills coaching decisions. Take a book from what the dolphins did, only do it better, and, hopefully, get a better result. This way you really give your rookie quarterback to tool to succeed right away. He can gradually learn a new offense(when necessary) while implementing what he knows. I don't know if this is the plan but that does increase the value of a pick, the ability to come right in on day one and run your offense. So at 8 Nassib would be worth more because the development cycle would be nonexistent. IMO
ALF Posted January 12, 2013 Posted January 12, 2013 I would draft a QB this year 2 nd round or lower, if that dosen't work, trade up a lot 2014.
Dibs Posted January 12, 2013 Posted January 12, 2013 (edited) Why does it seem to be a "crapshoot" when a QB is involved? Taking a QB in the 1st round is no more risky than any other position. In the last 10 years 30% of QBs selected in the 1st round made it to at least 1 pro bowl selection. All other positions combined came to 30.7%. Not much of a difference. 77.7% of QBs selected in a 10 year period from 2001-2010 have at the very least became a 3 year starter in the league. Statistics.....love em. Using years 2001-2010.... 27 QBs were selected. 9 made pro bowls 33% Sounds good!!! (Ignoring that one of those was Vince Young....and another was Jay Cutler....both being players that many would say are not gonna be "the guy") But wait.... 3 of the 9 QBs selected who made pro bowls were #1 picks. Therefore the results for non #1 QBs are.... 6 out of 24 25% Sounds fine!!! But wait again.... 3 of the 6 QB selected who made pro bowls that weren't #1 picks were selected between #2 & #4 Therefore the results for non Top 4 QBs are... 3 out of 21 14% or 1 in 7 chance. Sounds crap!!! The chance of us getting pro bowl production from our 1st round QB selection is 1 in 7.....and much worse as you go into rounds 2, 3 etc. The reality is that it takes on average selecting 7 1st round QBs to find a pro bowler unless you have a top 4/5 selection. As for your 77.7% become 3+ year starters.....of course they do, for several obvious reasons that I can't be bothered to spell out. Btw....it's a crapshoot with virtually every position except for perhaps interior offensive linemen. Edited January 12, 2013 by Dibs
bisonbrigade Posted January 12, 2013 Posted January 12, 2013 (edited) I think that the Bills have screwed around enough at QB the last decade. It does not matter what Mel Kiper, Bucky Brooks or Joe Blow on this website think. If Marrone, Hacket and Nix are convinced he's there guy you take him at 8. The Bills might not get "draft Value" at 8, but if the QB ends up being a 7 year starter take him. If Marrone and Hacket think Nassib can play in this league, which I think they do, take him. Edited January 12, 2013 by bisonbrigade
3rdand12 Posted January 12, 2013 Posted January 12, 2013 I think that the Bills have screwed around enough at QB the last decade. It does not matter what Mel Kiper, Bucky Brooks or Joe Blow on this website think. If Marrone, Hacket and Nix are convinced he's there guy you take him at 8. The Bills might not get "draft Value" at 8, but if the QB ends up being a 7 year starter take him. If Marrone and Hacket think Nassib can play in this league, which I think they do, take him. I wouldnt be surprised that , I will include Whaley on this method of thinking too, that is exactly how this plays out. This draft is going to be kinda nailbiter for me just because of the incredible pressure to get The franchise qb asap. You said "if he ends up being a six year starter take him." Thats the trick isnt it ? How do you really know. Educated crapshoot. Nassib? Hackett and Marrone know what they have there and might be his best scouts. And he offers continuity. They like him, go get him. Draft another in the fth. Added another coach today it seems. The FO is tearin' up. wow !
T master Posted January 12, 2013 Posted January 12, 2013 (edited) They made a good point by saying if you know that the QB you want will be your franchise QB, is it still a reach to draft them at #8 instead of the risk of them not being there the next time you pick. What do you guys think? CBF Ask the Oakland Raiders what they thought about the subject. Even though you don't have to pay as much as you did then, in a year that the QB class is less than stellar & the fact that there may be another player that you can get at that pick that will make an immediate impact & is a huge upgrade at another position with your first pick is it worth the risk to take a franchise QB that may not live up to being the face of the franchise when the other may be that player ??? Especially if the QB will sit for a while & you need to keep your bridge gap QB to help with the change... Edited January 12, 2013 by T master
gumby Posted January 12, 2013 Posted January 12, 2013 Statistics.....love em. Using years 2001-2010.... 27 QBs were selected. 9 made pro bowls 33% Sounds good!!! (Ignoring that one of those was Vince Young....and another was Jay Cutler....both being players that many would say are not gonna be "the guy") But wait.... 3 of the 9 QBs selected who made pro bowls were #1 picks. Therefore the results for non #1 QBs are.... 6 out of 24 25% Sounds fine!!! But wait again.... 3 of the 6 QB selected who made pro bowls that weren't #1 picks were selected between #2 & #4 Therefore the results for non Top 4 QBs are... 3 out of 21 14% or 1 in 7 chance. Sounds crap!!! The chance of us getting pro bowl production from our 1st round QB selection is 1 in 7.....and much worse as you go into rounds 2, 3 etc. The reality is that it takes on average selecting 7 1st round QBs to find a pro bowler unless you have a top 4/5 selection. As for your 77.7% become 3+ year starters.....of course they do, for several obvious reasons that I can't be bothered to spell out. Btw....it's a crapshoot with virtually every position except for perhaps interior offensive linemen. I don't dispute your numbers. But I think you got the wrong idea from my post. I'm not taking a position one way or another in regards to drafting a QB at #8. I just don't like the idea that it's riskier to pick a QB over another position.
BuffOrange Posted January 13, 2013 Posted January 13, 2013 "Reaching" is a problem invented by draftniks to argue about between the draft and camp. I can reach every pick while Johnny GM picks for value. 3 years later half my guys are in the Pro Bowl while Johnny's all got waived. Who wins? So basically if you draft/evaluate players way better than somebody else you'll be in better shape...enlightening. Obviously proof that 'reaching' doesn't really exist!
Peter Posted January 13, 2013 Posted January 13, 2013 Statistics.....love em. Using years 2001-2010.... 27 QBs were selected. 9 made pro bowls 33% Sounds good!!! (Ignoring that one of those was Vince Young....and another was Jay Cutler....both being players that many would say are not gonna be "the guy") But wait.... 3 of the 9 QBs selected who made pro bowls were #1 picks. Therefore the results for non #1 QBs are.... 6 out of 24 25% Sounds fine!!! But wait again.... 3 of the 6 QB selected who made pro bowls that weren't #1 picks were selected between #2 & #4 Therefore the results for non Top 4 QBs are... 3 out of 21 14% or 1 in 7 chance. Sounds crap!!! The chance of us getting pro bowl production from our 1st round QB selection is 1 in 7.....and much worse as you go into rounds 2, 3 etc. The reality is that it takes on average selecting 7 1st round QBs to find a pro bowler unless you have a top 4/5 selection. As for your 77.7% become 3+ year starters.....of course they do, for several obvious reasons that I can't be bothered to spell out. Btw....it's a crapshoot with virtually every position except for perhaps interior offensive linemen. Well done.
Dibs Posted January 13, 2013 Posted January 13, 2013 I don't dispute your numbers. But I think you got the wrong idea from my post. I'm not taking a position one way or another in regards to drafting a QB at #8. I just don't like the idea that it's riskier to pick a QB over another position. I did a study of this several years back and I'm fairly certain that QB was one of the positions that had slightly lower percentage hits than the average. That said, from memory the differences were not great....but still smaller. The only one that truly stood out was interior OL which had quite a higher percent hit rate than other positions. I plan on doing another study of this sort of thing after the draft(when there's no football news).....so stay tuned to TSW.
Dibs Posted January 13, 2013 Posted January 13, 2013 (edited) Well done. Actually....no it wasn't. I'm embarrassed to say that I neglected something very important in the figuring. (Lesson learned....don't post after being up for 34 hours). What I neglected was to remove the non-pro bowl #1 QBs & the non-pro bowl #2-#4 QBs from the base pools. It changes the odds from 1 in 7 to 1 in 5. The numbers should be as follows.... Using years 2001-2010.... 27 QBs were selected. 9 made pro bowls 33% (1 in 3) 8 of the 27 QBs were #1 picks. 3 of the 9 QBs selected who made pro bowls were #1 picks. Therefore the results for non #1 QBs are.... 6 out of 19 31.6% (1 in 3.2) 4 of the 19 remaining QBs were selected between #2 & #4 3 of the 6 QB selected who made pro bowls that weren't #1 picks were selected between #2 & #4 Therefore the results for non Top 4 QBs are... 3 out of 15 20% or 1 in 5 chance. The chance of us getting pro bowl production from our 1st round QB selection is 1 in 5.....and much worse as you go into rounds 2, 3 etc. The reality is that it takes on average selecting 5 1st round QBs to find a pro bowler unless you have a top 4 selection. Apologies to the board for my stupidity. Edited January 13, 2013 by Dibs
Bufcomments Posted January 13, 2013 Posted January 13, 2013 I know its early in the offseason but I think they should pick Nassib in the first round. Get your QB that you believe in. Both Marrone and Hackett coached this kid for 3yrs. They know everything about him without asking a scout or go to a combine to find out. Don't risk him not being there in the 2nd. It makes sense from a money standpoint too because you dont have to kill your cap on first rounders anymore. I know we need Defense but QB is the most important position on the field. Get it over with and lean heavy on Defense for the rest of the draft.
bobinaz Posted January 13, 2013 Posted January 13, 2013 I think that the Bills have screwed around enough at QB the last decade. It does not matter what Mel Kiper, Bucky Brooks or Joe Blow on this website think. If Marrone, Hacket and Nix are convinced he's there guy you take him at 8. The Bills might not get "draft Value" at 8, but if the QB ends up being a 7 year starter take him. If Marrone and Hacket think Nassib can play in this league, which I think they do, take him. I agree. Take him regardless of what the draft gurus think. I think these idiots are about as reliable as a 10 day weather forecast. The only one I would put stock in is Mike Mayock. I really think Nassib will be taken at #8.
Canadian Bills Fan Posted January 14, 2013 Author Posted January 14, 2013 J.P.Losman John McCargo CBF
Garion Posted January 15, 2013 Posted January 15, 2013 I don't dispute your numbers. But I think you got the wrong idea from my post. I'm not taking a position one way or another in regards to drafting a QB at #8. I just don't like the idea that it's riskier to pick a QB over another position. The difference is if you swing and miss on a high draft pickQB it sets the franchise back further than any other position. the franchise goes into "our future is dependent at letting this guy develop on the field the next few years" The converse is true as well mind you a hit at QB sets you further ahead. Not saying the bills shouldn't pick a QB but reaching for a guy who isn't that well rated on their board just because he is a QB isn't worth it.
HOUSE Posted January 15, 2013 Posted January 15, 2013 Does any team draft a quarterback in rounds 1 or 2 that doesn't believe the guy is a franchise quarterback ? I think not
bisonbrigade Posted January 15, 2013 Posted January 15, 2013 I know its early in the offseason but I think they should pick Nassib in the first round. Get your QB that you believe in. Both Marrone and Hackett coached this kid for 3yrs. They know everything about him without asking a scout or go to a combine to find out. Don't risk him not being there in the 2nd. It makes sense from a money standpoint too because you dont have to kill your cap on first rounders anymore. . AMEN. The Experts will say that drafting him is a mistake, but how many "can't miss" players did they miss on.
ganesh Posted January 15, 2013 Posted January 15, 2013 AMEN. The Experts will say that drafting him is a mistake, but how many "can't miss" players did they miss on. And I would rather have the Bills fail miserably by drafting a "reach" QB in the 1st round instead of drafting another set of DBs, who will either suck (McKelvin) or will go on to have an average career with us (Whitner) or sign with another team and do well for them (Winfield, Whitner).
JPS Posted January 15, 2013 Posted January 15, 2013 Yeah. Forget these "draft gurus" who study every game the QBs ever played and KNOW that this kid can't throw the deep out, that kid's footwork is sloppy or another kid locks on to his primary WR forever. What do they know. Taking Nassib at 8 only guarantees them a QB, not thee QB. Passing on better players because your desperate at the position is the surest way to get a higher draft pick next year. Let's call it the Brandon Weeden shuffle.
Peter Posted January 15, 2013 Posted January 15, 2013 (edited) The attached link lists Gil Brandt's top 25 players in the draft. There is not one QB in the top 25. I would hope that, if Bills' draft board (or anyone's draft board) is anything like this, that the Bills (Jerry Sullivan, WGR, the guys on this board) would not draft a QB with the 8th pick in the draft. http://www.nfl.com/d...f-top-prospects This link can also be found on the BB.com blog page. http://blogs.buffalobills.com/2013/01/15/brandts-top-25-prospects-lacks-a-qb/ Edited January 15, 2013 by Peter
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