WGR 550 talking about when to draft a QB

[PromoTheRobot]

If you know who is getting drafted when then you are wasting your time here.

 

PTR

[....lybob]

How about a 6,6, 245Lbs QB that knows his way around an end-zone who has a similar background as a super bowl winning QB and won't cost you a draft pick or a lot of money?

 

Ladies and Gentlemen I give you Tommy Grady

 

 

[mrags]

You wouldn't see a GM take a guy in the 1st round that wasn't expected to be drafted, even if he thought he was going to be a great player.

if your GM thought that much of a guy, every other team in the league could see the same things.

[KeisterHollow]

The way YE OLE sees it, this is not a black and white issue. My good friend, PROMO, makes a point in that the concept of "reaching" is invented by draftniks. However, take the situation that played out in last year's draft with Cordy Glenn. It may be a little early yet to write the book on how the Gilmore/Glenn tandem will play out, but Buddy told an interesting story about the 2005 draft in San Diego and how it paralleled the quandry he faced in Buffalo last year. The Chargers seriously considered grabbing Marcus McNeil in the first rd. but waited it out based on a calculated risk they could get him in the 2nd rd. HUGE draft value, obviously, but the Chargers were also much better on the field for having McNeil and Merriman.

 

You take a guy like Nassib... if this is truly the guy they want, and where Buddy is really going to make his money is using his connections and his instincts to guage exactly where he's going to fall. If he can grab a stud LB/pass rusher at 8 and Nassib some picks later, we as a franchise are going to be much better for it. In YE OLE's opinion, the draft is all about getting the most out of a finite number of resources.

 

I absolutely agree. First, you've got to be able to recognize talent - irregardless of school/division, etc. - and you've got to know where the openings are at on your own team, where the weaknesses are. Then, you figure out the combinations of available talent, and choose the players that will give you the most talent at each phase.

 

For instance, the Bills obviously need LB's and a QB - I'd say those are the top 2 needs of this team. If the top 2 LB'ers are hands down better than any of the other LB'ers available, yet the distinction between the #1 QB and the #5 QB is small, then you grab the best LB while you can, and get value with QB on your next pick. It IS up to Nix/Whaley to know JUST HOW GOOD THESE PLAYERS ARE, otherwise you can't pull this stuff off. I happen to think Nix is very good at assessing value - he's just been shocked to see QB's drafted so much higher than they would have been just a few years ago - the NFL has changed in that regard over the past 5 years or so, and Nix hasn't, until now, caught up with it.

 

To the point, though - IF Buffalo thinks Ryan Nassib could be a top 12 QB in the NFL for 10 years, then I say grab him now and get it over with - as long as they believe he can do everything they need their QB to do. QB's are just too hard to come by, unless you're willing to tank a whole season, virtually go winless. If you're planning on fighting and finishing around .500, forget about it - you grab the QB you have confidence in while you can.

I would have no qualms with this unless a really special talent is available at CB/LB/DE - I mean Von Miller talented - in which case the best value would be to grab him and then trade back to get your QB.

 

How about a 6,6, 245Lbs QB that knows his way around an end-zone who has a similar background as a super bowl winning QB and won't cost you a draft pick or a lot of money?

 

Ladies and Gentlemen I give you Tommy Grady

 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wc3JX0djmjk

 

This is the kind of stuff I hope the Bills never stop looking into - find the jewels out there that have been overlooked (Fred Jackson, Jason Peters) because they do exist. Why not try guys out from Canada and the Arena League? You've got the time and room in the offseason to do so, and it won't cost them much at all to do so.

[BRAWNDO]

Tannehill was considered a reach at the same spot last year. You are drafting a guy who will be with the same OC as he was for the past three years as well as the same HC. Nassib knows this offense and his learning curve to the NFL should be less steep. The Bills Scouting Staff now has inside information which is pretty much guaranteed never to be shared with any other team. If the Bills are on board, so am I.

[BillnutinHouston]

If he is going to be around in later rounds don't reach too far.

 

The problem is, how do you KNOW your guy will still be there? Buddy's already been burned by taking the approach of sticking to his board when others put a higher value than he did on certain QB's.

 

They can't worry about criticisms of "reaching", they just need to go out and get their guy - UNLESS they go big in free agency with either an Alex Smith or Joe Flacco (unlikely he'lll be available).

Edited January 10, 2013 by BillnutinHouston

[Crusader1969]

What did Russel Wilson, Colin Kaepernick and Andy Daulton have in common that made them Round 2 or later picks buts still succesful in the League??

 

I can come up with 2 things:

 

1) A top rated defence

2) A big receiver that they can throw the ball up to, no matter the situation and feel confident they will come down with the ball.

 

The Bills have neither of these two things.

 

If the Bills had drafted and played any of those guys, I'm saying that we would be in the exact same situation looking for our next franchsie QB because they would have FAILED! you can't expect a rookie to have to score 30 points a game to win.

 

PLEASE draft a LB with the #8 pick!! I'll even be happy with Milliner but don't take a reach for a QB unless your 100% sure.

 

 

-

[Canadian Bills Fan]

What did Russel Wilson, Colin Kaepernick and Andy Daulton have in common that made them Round 2 or later picks buts still succesful in the League??

 

I can come up with 2 things:

 

1) A top rated defence

2) A big receiver that they can throw the ball up to, no matter the situation and feel confident they will come down with the ball.

 

The Bills have neither of these two things.

 

If the Bills had drafted and played any of those guys, I'm saying that we would be in the exact same situation looking for our next franchsie QB because they would have FAILED! you can't expect a rookie to have to score 30 points a game to win.

 

PLEASE draft a LB with the #8 pick!! I'll even be happy with Milliner but don't take a reach for a QB unless your 100% sure.

 

 

-

 

AJ Green for sure but who would the 49ers have? Moss isnt what he used to be and I wouldnt say the Seahawks have one either as Rice doesnt compare to AJ Green

 

CBF

[Crusader1969]

I was thinking Crabtree on the 49ers, surprised he is only 6'1, seems to play larger. Id still argue he is a guy you can throw it to even when covered and expect him to make the catch.

 

You're right, Rice is no AJ Green. But I'd take him anyday over the week over Donald Jones. I LOVE Stevie, think he's among the best route runners in the league but not a guy i'd say you can just throw it up to and expect him to out jump a defender

 

I will say, that I think improving the Defence is still the top priority for this team.

 

Prior to Monday I thought I wanted the Bills to drat Te'o. His stock obviously plummetted but then I thought a guy who's team gives up 100+ yards to two running backs in the same game may just feel at home with the Bills!

[peterpan]

If the FO decides QB X is going to be a franchise caliber player, then my bet is they have him graded in the top 10 anyways.

 

"Our guy is there! But people on the internet and ESPN say he is a 2nd rounder, lets take someone else and hope this guy we have as a top ten talent is still there in round 2...." Doubtful.

 

Tannehill was considered a reach at the same spot last year. You are drafting a guy who will be with the same OC as he was for the past three years as well as the same HC. Nassib knows this offense and his learning curve to the NFL should be less steep. The Bills Scouting Staff now has inside information which is pretty much guaranteed never to be shared with any other team. If the Bills are on board, so am I.

 

This is a dead issue for me. The Bills clearly know Nassib. If they take him, its because they know him, if they dont, its because they know him. Not too worried about him honestly. Me personally, I be they like him and he ends up a Bill. BUT - they could like someone else more, so who knows.

[Bufcomments]

Ok so let me ask you this...

 

How would you all feel if we drafted Nassib at #8 and the Bills FO says they feel he is their franchise QB?

 

CBF

I be fine with it.

 

QB is THE position.

 

If they love Nassib and think he can run Hacketts Offense in the pros then yea I say pull the trigger and do it.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Ladies and Gentlemen I give you Tommy Grady

 

There's no way Will Belichick trades him. It would be great to have Grady and Les Welker though, not to mention Danny Goodhead.

 

AJ Green for sure but who would the 49ers have? Moss isnt what he used to be and I wouldnt say the Seahawks have one either as Rice doesnt compare to AJ Green

 

CBF

 

Crabtree put on a late season spurt during which he looked like an elite receiver. As Crusader said, Crabtree plays larger than his listed 6'1".

 

I'm thinking he's gonna go high in fantasy football drafts next year.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

An interesting way t ohold the draft owuld be all 32 teams enter a lcked down room with no communication to the outside. When they have completed drafting, white smoke then rises and each team releases their list of players, but no order of who was taken when is ever given. Would be interesting to compare the results of a systme like thta agasint the current method where every team is too much under the microscope and it's totally disected as to what they did. I think teams would be more gutsy.

[Mango]

we should take a qb next year and trade the entire draft to get one of the top three qb's in next years class. i couldnt be more underwhelmed by every qb in this draft.

[Peter]

Who would you rather have, Akili Smith or Champ Bailey?

 

Cade McNown or Damien Woody?

 

In 1999, teams were desperate for QBs and moved a bunch of these jokers up. I would rather the Bills took the best football players in hopes of getting an Urlacher, Wilfork or Jerry Rice instead of forcing a QB into the 8 hole. I don't care what happened on Monday, if Te'o is there, sign me up.

 

Very well said. The Titans drafted Locker with the 8th pick a couple of years ago. I really hope that the the Bills do not draft this year's version of Jake Locker with the 8th pick in the draft. We can get an impact guy with the 8th pick. Unfortunately, there is no Andrew Luck or RGIII in this year's draft.

 

Unless the Bills have a QB in the top part of the first round (I may be willing to "reach" a few picks for a QB), there is no point in drafting a QB at 8 so that people on this board, Jerry Sullivan, and WGR can say we drafted a QB. I would much rather (given the talent available) (a) use the second round pick on a QB; (b) trade back in the round and acquire additional picks; © or package the second round pick with other picks to move up with our second pick to draft a QB (while using our 8th pick in the first round for a quality player that certainly will be available at 8).

 

I am so glad that we did not waste a first round pick on a Jimmy Clausen (although some here imploded on that day).

 

What did Russel Wilson, Colin Kaepernick and Andy Daulton have in common that made them Round 2 or later picks buts still succesful in the League??

 

I can come up with 2 things:

 

1) A top rated defence

2) A big receiver that they can throw the ball up to, no matter the situation and feel confident they will come down with the ball.

 

The Bills have neither of these two things.

 

If the Bills had drafted and played any of those guys, I'm saying that we would be in the exact same situation looking for our next franchsie QB because they would have FAILED! you can't expect a rookie to have to score 30 points a game to win.

 

PLEASE draft a LB with the #8 pick!! I'll even be happy with Milliner but don't take a reach for a QB unless your 100% sure.

 

 

-

 

Good point.

Edited January 11, 2013 by Peter

[JohnC]

The way YE OLE sees it, this is not a black and white issue. My good friend, PROMO, makes a point in that the concept of "reaching" is invented by draftniks. However, take the situation that played out in last year's draft with Cordy Glenn. It may be a little early yet to write the book on how the Gilmore/Glenn tandem will play out, but Buddy told an interesting story about the 2005 draft in San Diego and how it paralleled the quandry he faced in Buffalo last year. The Chargers seriously considered grabbing Marcus McNeil in the first rd. but waited it out based on a calculated risk they could get him in the 2nd rd. HUGE draft value, obviously, but the Chargers were also much better on the field for having McNeil and Merriman.

 

You take a guy like Nassib... if this is truly the guy they want, and where Buddy is really going to make his money is using his connections and his instincts to guage exactly where he's going to fall. If he can grab a stud LB/pass rusher at 8 and Nassib some picks later, we as a franchise are going to be much better for it. In YE OLE's opinion, the draft is all about getting the most out of a finite number of resources.

 

One person's judgment I'm not going to give much credence to is Buddy Nix. He has had three year's to exercise his judgment. His overall record as the steward of the football operations is 16-32. His record against AFC teams is 4-14. His record against playoff teams is 2-18.

 

Buddy Nix took the lackadaisical approach that before addresssing the qb position it was important to bolster the roster. The problem with his archaic views is that it is not mutually exclusive. You can address the qb position and still upgrade the roster.

 

He is the GM who along with Gailey, his HC hire, made the determination that Fitz was a legitimate franchise qHb. He acted on the gross misjudgment by signing Fitz to a contract that was beyond his talent level. Fitz was a player who was in the league for nearly a half dozen years. There were no secrets about his lack of arm strength and his erratic accuracy problems. Yet, he decided to entrust him as the franchise's franchise qb.

 

Buddy Nix's three year draft recording is less than mediocre. His three first round picks were in my view sound. But I'm not going to overdo the praise. When you regularly draft in the top dozen you should be able to come up with a talented player in the first round. That isn't how one should judge his drafting performances. Overall, his three years of drafts were below average to average at best. In his three years of drafting Spiller is his only impact player. That drafting performance is not going to move a bottom feeding team very far up the ranks.

 

My position on this draft is very simple: In the first round take the highest rated qb left on your board. Last year the Bills drafted Gilmore in the first round. I like him a lot. He is going to be a quality CB for us. But does anyone have any doubt that if the Bills would have taken Russell Wilson in the first round, although drafting him high above his rankings, he would last year and for a long time after have a much greater positive impact for the team.

 

Ralph Wilson selected Buddy Nix without much exploration of other GM candidates. It was the owner's typical stupid hire and franchise crippling action. Relying on Nix's judgment is a recipe for disaster.

 

http://www.buffaloru...ce-after-year-3

Edited January 11, 2013 by JohnC

[Bronc24]

"Reaching" is a problem invented by draftniks to argue about been the draft and camp. I can reach every pick while Johnny GM picks for value. 3 years later half my guys are in the Pro Bowl while Johnny's all got waived. Who wins?

 

 

I can tell you with 100% certainty that some people would hate the pick while others would love it. Because all opinions on players are just that, opinions. Show me a draft bust and I'll show you a glowing draft report on that player.

 

PTR

 

J.P.Losman

[bobobonators]

You take the best player available in my opinion. I think you have to be careful with thinking that because a few rookie QB's have been very successful in the league that it's now the new trend in the NFL. Wilson stepped into an organization that had already made the playoffs without him - they have an AWESOME defense and a great running game. Kaep stepped into an organization that had already made the playoffs as well - they have an AWESOME defense and a great running game.

 

RGIII is an elite talent much the same way Cam is. The skins made the playoffs but the Panthers haven't.

 

Luck is a once in a generation type player.

 

I'm just hesitant to think that this is some kind of new trend where the norm is to expect IMMEDIATE success from a rookie QB. I think we would be setting ourselves up for disaster as fans.

 

Players like Dalton, Flacco, RGIII, Luck, Kaep, Wilson etc have all been successful. Players like Ponder (I don't care if he made the playoffs), Tannehill, Gabbert, Locker, Sanchez, McCoy, Quinn, Freeman, Clausen etc. have struggled.

 

at the end of the day it's a crapshoot.

 

the 49er's obviously didn't think that Kaep was their "franchise guy" b/c they didn't take him at #7 that year...seahawks no way in hell thought Wilson was their guy in the 3rd round..same thing with the bengals when they took Dalton in the 2nd. They all took the best player available with their initial picks and then took the best player available again in the later rounds. Difference between them and us is that their gms/coaches/scouts were smart/lucky and we weren't.

[Dibs]

They made a good point by saying if you know that the QB you want will be your franchise QB, is it still a reach to draft them at #8 instead of the risk of them not being there the next time you pick.

 

Whether intended or not, this is quite a loaded question.

 

Instead of being a fan looking in, be the GM of the team.

You have a QB prospect who you "know" will be your Franchise QB. For whatever the reasons, the media talent evaluators do not rate him as highly as you have. Do you care what the media talent evaluators think? No you don't.

 

An underling says to you "We could trade down and get him later in the 1st round."

You respond "How highly do the Jets rate him?"

Underling "I don't know."

 

Is it worth the risk trading down and missing out on a player you "know" is going to be great? Obviously it isn't.

[gumby]

You take the best player available in my opinion. I think you have to be careful with thinking that because a few rookie QB's have been very successful in the league that it's now the new trend in the NFL. Wilson stepped into an organization that had already made the playoffs without him - they have an AWESOME defense and a great running game. Kaep stepped into an organization that had already made the playoffs as well - they have an AWESOME defense and a great running game.

 

RGIII is an elite talent much the same way Cam is. The skins made the playoffs but the Panthers haven't.

 

Luck is a once in a generation type player.

 

I'm just hesitant to think that this is some kind of new trend where the norm is to expect IMMEDIATE success from a rookie QB. I think we would be setting ourselves up for disaster as fans.

 

Players like Dalton, Flacco, RGIII, Luck, Kaep, Wilson etc have all been successful. Players like Ponder (I don't care if he made the playoffs), Tannehill, Gabbert, Locker, Sanchez, McCoy, Quinn, Freeman, Clausen etc. have struggled.

 

at the end of the day it's a crapshoot.

 

the 49er's obviously didn't think that Kaep was their "franchise guy" b/c they didn't take him at #7 that year...seahawks no way in hell thought Wilson was their guy in the 3rd round..same thing with the bengals when they took Dalton in the 2nd. They all took the best player available with their initial picks and then took the best player available again in the later rounds. Difference between them and us is that their gms/coaches/scouts were smart/lucky and we weren't.

 

 

Why does it seem to be a "crapshoot" when a QB is involved? Taking a QB in the 1st round is no more risky than any other position.

 

In the last 10 years 30% of QBs selected in the 1st round made it to at least 1 pro bowl selection. All other positions combined came to 30.7%. Not much of a difference.

 

77.7% of QBs selected in a 10 year period from 2001-2010 have at the very least became a 3 year starter in the league.