Maury Ballstein Posted January 10, 2013 Posted January 10, 2013 You mean like throwing the ball accurately beyond 5 yards, hitting runners in stride to increase YAC and being able to stretch the field with a noodle arm? Yep. All on Chan. Thank goodness this 7th round career back-up will finally be unleashed! This ^^ times a million.
papazoid Posted January 10, 2013 Posted January 10, 2013 I have a subscription to PFF due to working on a football project, so I have access to all their advanced stat grades. Basically they grade every player on every play during the season and keep a cumulitive grade for them the entire season. I am going to give you the Best and Worst 7 player grades for the Bills(not including special teams) so we can have some dialogue...I have to admit some of these were pretty surprising to me: Top 7 Bills Grades(Previous Year Grade) 1) Kyle Williams: +29.4(-2.2 due largely to injury as he was +44.2 in 2010) 3rd highest DT grade in the NFL(Atkins, McCoy) 2) CJ Spiller: +25.4(+7.9) 2nd highest RB grade in the NFL(Peterson) 3) Jairus Byrd: +23.7(+15.3) 2nd highest S grade in the NFL(Weddle) 4) Andy Levitre: +17.3(+19.2) 9th highest G grade in the NFL 5) George Wilson: +12.4(+1.0) 8th highest S grade in the NFL 6) Mario Williams: +10.0(+8.4 with Houston---despite playing under 1/4 of total snaps due to injury) 17th highest DE grade in NFL(directly ahead of Peppers) 7) Stevie Johnson: +9.8(+8.6) 25th highest WR grade in the NFL ***Alex Carrington(+8.9 on defense/+5.7 special teams for +14.6 total would be included if I looked at special teams)---he had a tremendous year and looks like he is becoming a very good player... -Big surprise to me on this list is George Wilson, who I thought played rather poorly overall this year, but he had a much higher grade this year than he did last year(+1.0), when I thought he played really well, so what do I know, apparently...Kyle Williams had another good year for the Bills, even playing hurt, and Spiller obviously would have been number 1 if he had more touches...Byrd made a HUGE jump from last year and its obvious he is getting ready to hit his prime...Bills would be foolish to let him walk...Levitre actually had a slightly WORSE year than last year, but still very solid. Mario had a decent year, not great, but nowhere near as bad as people have made out to be... Worst 7 Bills Grades(Previous Year Grade) 1) Ryan Fitzpatrick: -18.6(-5.6) 35th ranked QB---4th from bottom 2) TJ Graham: -15.3(NA) 105th ranked WR---WORST ranked WR in the NFL = B. U. S. T. now we see why he couldn't get on the field 3) Mark Anderson: -12.5(+14.5 with New England---2nd highest on defense) 4) Justin Rogers: -9.9(-1.1) 107th ranked CB in the NFL---7th from bottom 5) Erik Pears: -7.2(+6.4) mainly due to playing with injury... 6) Kyle Moore: -7.1(-2.5) 49th ranked DE in the NFL 7) Aaron Williams: -6.6(N/A) 92nd ranked CB in the NFL(tied with Nate Clements)... -No surprise that Fitzpatrick was no the list, but to see him as having the single worst grade on the entire team was very surprising to me. So obvious he needs to go, especially since he got worse, actually MUCH worse than last year. In fact, Fitz had only 1 game where he graded higher than +1.0 this year, and that was in week 9 against Houston(+1.3), where he had the benefit of the bye to have an extra prep week...In fact, Fitz was so bad, he graded out higher than only 3 other QB's in the NFL...John Skelton(-20.2), Mark Sanchez(-22.1), and Brandon Weeden(-30.0). In comparison, Peyton Manning led the league with +53.2. 14 QBs had a grade of +10 or higher, including Miami's rookie QB Ryan Tannehill at 11.2... -Something that WAS surprising however, was that Mark Anderson had as poor a grade as he did after having the second highest grade on New England's defense last year, and missing a large part of the year. If he stayed healthy and played as poorly as he did early in the year, Anderson would have had the worst grade by far and away of any Bills player. Graham had a pretty awful year, which was bore out as him being the second worst graded player. Rogers struggled badly, which is no shocker...Pears was injured so a lot of his poor play was due to that, IMHO since he had a good grade last year....Moore and Williams both struggled to make plays... -the Bills and Chargers were the only 2 teams to have 3 CB's each receive a grade of -4.0 or lower(Gilmore -4.2, Williams -6.6, Rogers -9.9)---Gilmore will get better, but boy we need some help at the other corner... Now onto something that bodes well for the Bills: We have arguments on the forums of how much better the Bills are, if at all since 2010 when Gailey took over, and I am happy to shed some light on it based on the overall team grades at PFF. The Bills, are in fact better, and significantly so. In 2010, the Bills had a team grade of -91.9, which improved to +49.6 in 2011 and more than doubled in 2012 to +111.9. This team is on the right track, with better players,which is born out in the individual grades as well over that timeframe if you look at the players who received a grade of +1.0 or higher and the players who received a grade of -1.0 or lower: In 2010, the offense was +5/-16 and the defense was +6/-17 for a total of +11/-33(11 players had a grade of +1.0 or better, 33 had a grade of -1.0 or worse) In 2011, the offense was +11/-13 and the defense was +7/-15 for a total of +18/-22 In 2012, the offense was +12/-6 and the defense was +12/-11 for a total of +24/-17---the first time the + players outnumbered the minus players on this team... We are headed in the right direction and with a few more players and a better coaching job, this could easily be a playoff team next year. As an added, highlight, and someone who appears to be a diamond in the rough(other than Carrington), is Chad Rhinehart, who had the 3rd highest grade on the team in 2011 at +16.1, and led all offensive lineman in run blocking with +4.9(Lee Smith led the team in run blocking at +5.0)...Kraig Urbik had a +8.3 grade in 2011 and a +6.7 grade this year, so while good, it appears that Rhinehart is the better player...Cordy Glenn had a +6.7 grade to lead all rookies this year. So in summary, we are headed in the right direction talent wise, we CANNOT afford to lose our 3rd(Byrd) and 4th(Levitre) best player on the team in UFA, we have improved steadily and measurably since 2011 even if it doesn't look like it to the naked eye, Alex Carrington is about to blossom into a potential star, and Chad Rhinehart is a diamond in the rough. Oh yeah, Fitz is bad and regressed very badly this year to have his worst season as a starter for the Bills. We also have the 3rd, 15th and 16th ranked DT's by grade in the NFL(Williams, Carrington, Dareus) i like this thread, seeing as i recently ranked our players in another thread in order as follows: Levitre, Spiller, Kyle Williams, Wood, Mario Williams, Byrd , Stevie not to mention i've been dogging fitz, t j graham, mark anderson and aaron williams.
Billsguy Posted January 10, 2013 Posted January 10, 2013 I nominate this for best post of 2013 (so far). Thanks. Finally a worthwhile post. Thanks. Please forward the link to the Bills analytics department.
San Jose Bills Fan Posted January 11, 2013 Posted January 11, 2013 I think sack rate is nearly as important. Those are drive killers, and it's often a QB's fault (not just the line's). Apparently the consensus on this board is that we need a run-stuffing LB over a pass rushing LB. Whoops. Sorry. Back to the discussion.
Nitro Posted January 11, 2013 Posted January 11, 2013 Good post. Science and the numbers don't lie. That is why my Madden 2011 BIlls won the Super Bowl.
firemedic Posted January 11, 2013 Posted January 11, 2013 How did Gilmore get a negative score, he didn' t suck THAT bad...........?
papazoid Posted January 11, 2013 Posted January 11, 2013 How did Gilmore get a negative score, he didn' t suck THAT bad...........? not sure, but my first thought is that they factored in penalties......he was flagged alot....
Big Turk Posted January 11, 2013 Author Posted January 11, 2013 How did Gilmore get a negative score, he didn' t suck THAT bad...........? His coverage pass rating was OK at +3.7 I believe, but he got a-6.6 grade for penalties as he was one of the most penalized CBs in the NFL...scary because that seems to follow guys from year to year as I look back through previous years...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted January 11, 2013 Posted January 11, 2013 His coverage pass rating was OK at +3.7 I believe, but he got a-6.6 grade for penalties as he was one of the most penalized CBs in the NFL...scary because that seems to follow guys from year to year as I look back through previous years... My impression made through many decades of watching NFL games while drinking beers is that rookie cornerbacks often get whistled for calls that are not made later in their careers. At first, officials think to themselves "that's a rookie cornerback." Later on they think "that's a veteran cornerback." Pass interference is often times a subjective call and the benefit of the doubt is given to veterans much more than to rookies. Like I said, just an intoxicated impression.
Big Turk Posted January 11, 2013 Author Posted January 11, 2013 My impression made through many decades of watching NFL games while drinking beers is that rookie cornerbacks often get whistled for calls that are not made later in their careers. At first, officials think to themselves "that's a rookie cornerback." Later on they think "that's a veteran cornerback." Pass interference is often times a subjective call and the benefit of the doubt is given to veterans much more than to rookies. Like I said, just an intoxicated impression. That doesn't seem to be the case though a lot of times, from what I am seeing. DRC, Asomugha, Routt and a few others were consistently among those with the most penalties year to year...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted January 11, 2013 Posted January 11, 2013 That doesn't seem to be the case though a lot of times, from what I am seeing. DRC, Asomugha, Routt and a few others were consistently among those with the most penalties year to year... I would say that some players are more penalty prone than others. I would also say that all things being equal, a rookie is more likely to be called for a pass interference penalty than a veteran. Like I said, just my impression.
NoSaint Posted January 11, 2013 Posted January 11, 2013 That doesn't seem to be the case though a lot of times, from what I am seeing. DRC, Asomugha, Routt and a few others were consistently among those with the most penalties year to year... Yea but they got the reputation of "bad corners" not "vet corners" What about young aggressive guys that turned out good?
Big Turk Posted January 12, 2013 Author Posted January 12, 2013 (edited) Wow, one of the best and most informative posts I've ever read on this site. Kudos. Question for the OP...where do the Bills rank league-wide in total team value? Thanks! Here are the teams above the Bills: Denver Broncos 370.9 San Francisco 49ers 355.1 New England Patriots 320.4 Seattle Seahawks 237.4 Cincinnati Bengals 203.9 Houston Texans 184.4 Atlanta Falcons 174.3 Minnesota Vikings 170.3 N.Y. Giants 153.3 Tampa Bay Bucs 145.9 Baltimore Ravens 133.3 Miami Dolphins 127.8 Green Bay Packers 127 Buffalo Bills 112.5 14th in NFL Edited January 12, 2013 by matter2003
Big Turk Posted January 12, 2013 Author Posted January 12, 2013 (edited) I am not surprised at Rhinhart's grade (esply in the run dept. he is very good at that, pass blocking...meh). I would like to know about Snow and Brown if they got grades?I suspect Brown's was good (again in the run) and Snow okay. Also wondering about Woods grade? And also add thanks for posting the info Sam Young received a total grade of +0.6 which included a +4.4 Pass Block grade and a -4.0 Run Block grade. David Snow received a total grade of +1.9 which included a +0.8 Pass Block grade, a +0.5 Scren Block Grade and a +0.2 Run Block Grade. Eric Wood got a total grade of -1.0. He got a grade of +2.9 Pass Block, +2.5 Screen Block but -7.2 Run Block, which was the worst Run Block score on the team(even worse than Scott Chandler's -6.2). Surprisingly, his 2 worst run block grades were the Jacksonville game(-2.9) and the 2nd New England game(-2.5), which were two of the more offensively explosive games for the Bills... Edited January 12, 2013 by matter2003
DanInUticaTampa Posted January 12, 2013 Posted January 12, 2013 After reading all this I am signing up for a subscription. This stuff can keep me busy all off season
KOKBILLS Posted January 12, 2013 Posted January 12, 2013 My impression made through many decades of watching NFL games while drinking beers... Otherwise known as logic impossible to be contradicted...
truth on hold Posted January 12, 2013 Posted January 12, 2013 (edited) Thanks! Here are the teams above the Bills: Denver Broncos 370.9 San Francisco 49ers 355.1 New England Patriots 320.4 Seattle Seahawks 237.4 Cincinnati Bengals 203.9 Houston Texans 184.4 Atlanta Falcons 174.3 Minnesota Vikings 170.3 N.Y. Giants 153.3 Tampa Bay Bucs 145.9 Baltimore Ravens 133.3 Miami Dolphins 127.8 Green Bay Packers 127 Buffalo Bills 112.5 14th in NFL But this is not weighted by position value is it? Since QB is without question the most important position, if fitz awful grade factored more you'd see a closer proximity to draft ranking 24th overall. Coaching would aanother important factor in explaining the difference via talent utilization I would think. Edited January 12, 2013 by Joe_the_6_pack
San Jose Bills Fan Posted January 12, 2013 Posted January 12, 2013 Otherwise known as logic impossible to be contradicted... I hate boasting so thanks!
CardinalScotts Posted January 12, 2013 Posted January 12, 2013 and the criteria is ?.....waste of time
Big Turk Posted January 12, 2013 Author Posted January 12, 2013 and the criteria is ?.....waste of time Many NFL teams disagree with you since they pay PFF for these types of stats and also personalized ones for what they are looking for... You think they are a waste of time but the NFL teams do not.
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